HEAD TO HEADS
| 08.08.2010 | D1 | Halmstads BK | 1-3 | IF Elfsborg | |
| 22.03.2010 | D1 | IF Elfsborg | 6-0 | Halmstads BK | |
| 28.09.2009 | D1 | Halmstads BK | 1-2 | IF Elfsborg | |
| 16.05.2009 | D1 | IF Elfsborg | 4-0 | Halmstads BK | |
| 21.03.2009 | CF | IF Elfsborg | 4-0 | Halmstads BK |
It looks fairly emphatic in head to heads which begs the question, why so (relatively) high in the odds? They have won 4-0, 4-0, 6-0 at home in last 3 head to heads
LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 16th (bottom) - only 8 matches into the current season so hopefully some trends might be appearing although the strength of trends increases naturally the bigger the sample.
HOME TEAM - ELFSBORG
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWW - 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 2-1 - consistent scoring from Elfs at home. All over 2.5 goals and a hope this will continue today.
RECENT FORM OVERALL WLDLWWWL - poor away form from Elfs.
GOAL TRENDS - 100% overs at home, but small sample. Average 2.25 currently and 1 conceded at home. 6 of 8 matches this season over 2.5 goals. Exceptions, 1-0 and 2-0.
STREAKS - 2 match winning streak at home, 4 without defeat at home.
AWAY TEAM - HALMSTADS
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLL 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, 2-0 - mirror reflection of Elfs but this time conceding and not scoring.
RECENT OVERALL FORM-DLLLDLLW - recent win a 1-0 against currently 2nd bottom Mjallby.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs away from home. Have failed to score in 50% of away matches. Only 2 of 8 matches this season over 2.5 goals. Concede an average 2.25 away this season.
STREAKS - 4 match losing streak away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - concern that the sample is too small to be an accurate relfection of either side's capabilities, but if this small sample is accurate then we have a home team averaging 2.25 scored against an away side conceding an average of 2.25. Looks like an Elfsborg home win scoring 2 minimum today. Head to heads are compelling and see an Elfs clean sheet and 4,4,6 scored in last 3 head to heads at Elfs.
Again, warning re small sample of games played.
| Wozniacki v Date Krumm - 1.02 - look immediately for 2-0 in sets - around 1.12 for 2-0 in sets. 1230 - |
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 The Osteopath, 11/4 Fremen, 6/1 Mastership, 6/1 Moody Tunes, 9/1 Handsome Falcon, 12/1 Moheebb, 20/1 Without Prejudice, 100/1 Bunacurry, 100/1 Hair Of The Dog.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these are hard to win with nowadays, Fremen being the obvious exception. Nevertheless, David Nicholls' veteran could have his work cut out to hold THE OSTEOPATH, who is marginally best in on official ratings, ran well on his reappearance and is dropping in class.[Frank Carter]
From class 3 to a class 6 The Osteopath could be competitive and place at least in a 9 horse race for 3 places.He shares around 7/4 favouratism with Fremen and they are clear of 3rd fav at 7/1
245 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 St Barths, 5/1 Telwaar, 5/1 Verbeeck, 13/2 Singalat, 14/1 Bounty Seeker, 20/1 Space Raider, 33/1 Unforgiving, 100/1 Witty Buck.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a decent heat as Singalat, Verbeeck, Roman Soldier and ST BARTHS all shaped with distinct promise on their debuts, the last pair in two good-looking maidens. The last-named was probably the biggest eyecatcher at Newbury and we all know how much the Meehan juveniles can improve on their second start.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Either the betting forecaster has underestimated the chances of St Barths or simply made an error , as the horse is now 1/3 in the live betting market on his only 2nd outing
345 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Albaraka, 3/1 Ivan Vasilevich, 9/2 Bussa, 6/1 See The Smile.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is all about the impeccably-bred ALBARAKA, who has done the important bit in winning a maiden and the handicapper has as much idea as you and I as to how good she might be. Ivan Vasilevich would be the alternative.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
A superb probability bet with now, 3 runners and 2 places and Albaraka of obvious interest.
415 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Jacqueline Quest, 5/1 Mortitia, 15/2 Nabah, 10/1 Bahati, 14/1 Saddlers Bend.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If JACQUELINE QUEST runs her race then she wins, as her rivals could only dream of being competitive at the highest level. Mortitia is the one most likely to take advantage should the favourite fail to fire.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Big price gapper here, and wellbeing has to be taken on trust as this is a long absence to overcome for Jacqueline.
515 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 No Heretic, 4/1 Bride Unbridled, 4/1 Starlight Walk, 13/2 Planetoid, 10/1 Tartan Jura, 14/1Disco Dancing, 25/1 Echos Of Motivator, 33/1 Mir Hy, 50/1 Ash Cloud.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be third-time lucky for the promising NO HERETIC (nap), twice placed in hot Newbury maidens and still rated a colt of some potential. Starlight Walk can improve but it didn't look that good a race she contested at Goodwood and just as interesting are Planetoid and the newcomer Bride Unbridled.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
No Heretic has experience which counts for something in these maidens. 10/11 now with 4 under 14/1 and has Frank Spencer up.
740 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bated Breath, 11/2 Triple Aspect, 7/1 Libranno, 8/1 Elnawin, 8/1 Monsieur Chevalier, 9/1Horseradish, 10/1 Evens And Odds, 14/1 Monsieur Joe, 14/1 Tropical Treat, 66/1 Son Of The Cat.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Upcoming Group 1 entries suggest that BATED BREATH (nap), Monsieur Chevalier andLibranno will be competing at a higher level before long. The last-named, unpenalised for the first time this year, could get an easy time in front but his form seems to have levelled off and he looks vulnerable to a potential improver like Bated Breath. Monsieur Chevalier has something to prove after his layoff and last year's winner Triple Aspect looks best of the others.[Frank Carter]
An air of familiarity about Bated Breath but I cannot place it, perhaps a strong mention in a previous message. A nice price gap but a listed race where all horses are there by merit.
SHORTLIST
Yesterday had loads of strong bets and I only wish they could be carried over to today. I'd take a Goldikova over any of these today.
6pm - Elfsborg v Halmstads - 1.39 home - reasonable liquidity as the Football bettors and traders look for Summer Leagues now the domestic season has ended, The form is sparce and it is dangerous to make assumptions after 8 matches. What stands out though is Elfs score an average 2.25 at home and Halmstads concede an average 2.25 away. All over 2.5 goals at home for Elfs and all bar 2 of Halms' matches have been over 2.5 goals. Over 1.5 goals therefore appeals at 1.24
730pm - Man Utd Youth v Sheff Utd Youth - 1.32 home - no research available so it's odds and reputation here.
230 CARLISLE - The Osteopath and Fremen should dominate. The Osteopath is dropping 3 classes and Fremen is 121. Always a concern that one of these 2 will falter and not place, especially in a handicap. The Osteopath is the favourite here at 1.32 to place.
345 LEICESTER - 3 horses and 2 places and Albaraka is 1.11 to place - superb pedigree and expected to be competitive - let's face it, he only needs to beat 1 horse to place.
415 LEICESTER - Jacqueline Quest - if she runs she wins , so says Spotlight. 1.41 to win and illiquid place only.
515 LEICESTER - no Heretic looks primed to continue placing -Spencer is an unpredictable so and so and a hope he will not scupper this chance. " big surprise if he's beaten"
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Elfsborg v Halmstads - 1.39 home - the stats make this very appealing but then overreliance on stats for a small sample of 8 matches can be folly. If the stats are accurate, then Elfsborg should win and over 1.5 goals should come in.
345 LEICESTER - Albaraka should come in the first 2 in this 3 horse race for 2 places. It's a tight old handicap with the outsider at 4/1 so slight risks but this is a superb probability race.
515 LEICESTER - No Heretic " big surprise if he's beaten" Should place today again if not winning, surely? Frank Spencer on board, slight rise in trip ( expected to suit)
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