*****ONE A DAY -405 BATH - SABORIDO TO PLACE ONLY ***** purely probability this race with 3 runners for 2 places. Ran 15 days ago and is a course and distance winner against one horse coming back off a near 300 day absence.

1st loss at home since November 2010, biggest home defeat in 2 years, 3 goals down in 22 minutes and it had to happen when I chose them! I thought this would be a tight, nervy match with an eventual Cardiff winner, but they simply did not show up. So you think won by 10 lengths as the other alternative. Bad choice!

1230pm - Tampines Rovers v Victory SC - 1.13 home - this is the AFC Cup and Tampines lead 3-1 from the away leg? Not much else to go on - I do not know from which country Victory SC originate.

4pm - Mlada Boleslav v Kromeriz - 1.16 - very illiquid Czech Cup match sees Division 1 v Division 3 M

405 BATH

BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Saborido, 6/4 Never Can Tell, 4/1 Baddam.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Never Can Tell and Baddam both like to force things and they could help set this up forSABORIDO (nap). The winner of both his starts over C&D, he made a promising return to action and this longer trip will suit.[Paul Smith]

3 horses and 2 places. Great probability race

820 EXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bahira, 7/1 Romany Quest, 9/1 Fairy Trader, 12/1 Cider Lolly, 12/1 Dirty Bertie, 12/1Quotidian, 14/1 Thunder On, 25/1 Multitude Of Sins, 25/1 Saffron House, 50/1 Montybella.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to get away from BAHIRA despite the double penalty. Romany Quest looks the pick of the others who have raced and the betting should give an idea of what may be expected from the newcomers.[Frank Carter]

Price gapper in this bumper but need to see the market nearer the off.

355 FAKENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Zazamix, 6/4 Five Out Of Five, 25/1 The Iron Giant, 50/1 Crossbarry Breeze.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Effectively a two-horse race. Zazamix has the best piece of chase form but needs to put a disappointing effort behind him and has yet to race on a firmish surface. FIVE OUT OF FIVE, who is of similar ability to the Henderson runner over hurdles and proven on quickish ground, makes the greater appeal on balance.[Steven Boow]

2 horse race? Clear round required.

425 FAKENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Otage De Brion, 7/2 Kadount, 9/2 Assassino, 7/1 Delightful Cliche.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The life of Gold Cup-winning jockey Sam Waley-Cohen is a rich and varied one. When he's not busy running a string of dental practices or attending royal weddings, he's riding horses round the likes of Fakenham and his mount OTAGE DE BRION looks the one to beat. Joe Turner appropriately has a good record in this race but his two runners will need the selection to disappoint.[Steven Boow]

FAv the one to beat and a good place chance under Gold Cup winning jockey in a 50/50 race for the places.

310 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Pandoro De Lago, 7/2 Alemaratiya, 9/2 Brook Star, 9/1 Woolamaloo, 10/1 Silvers Spirit, 12/1Molannarch, 40/1 Poosie Nansie, 66/1 Lady Of The Knight.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PANDORO DE LAGO was a notable flop on her third and final 2yo start but this half-sister to former Champion Hurdle winner Sublimity will be hard to beat on her previous second in a Redcar maiden, having been found a weak maiden here. Unless there is market confidence behind newcomer Brook Star, Alemaratiya may be next best. [Mel Cullinan]

Price gapper in an 8 runner, 3 place maiden.

340 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Zest For Life, 11/4 Outlaw Pete, 7/2 Wedger Pardy, 10/1 How Are Things, 12/1 Jills Oscar, 12/1 Not To Pushed, 12/1 Theroadtocroker, 14/1 Let The Show Begin, 20/1 Jack Monday, 25/1 Butlers Storm, 25/1 Leg Iron, 50/1 Gamato, 50/1 Sunny Option.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Enda Bolger has not been as dominant in this as in other races over the banks course here, but three out of the last eight is not a bad record all the same, and ZEST FOR LIFE may confirm last year's superiority relative to event specialist Wedger Pardy and Outlaw Pete. [Alan Sweetman]

Enda Bolger and cross country go hand in hand. Zest for life?

530 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sizing Europe, 2/1 Big Zeb, 9/2 Golden Silver, 5/1 Captain Cee Bee, 12/1 J´y Vole, 200/1Changing Course.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A potential epic on the card here. SIZING EUROPE was spectacular at Cheltenham, and is tipped to uphold form with Big Zeb and the others [Alan Sweetman]

Sizing Europe must have a great place only chance.

SHORTLIST

405 Bath - must be mentioned from a pure probability perspective. Default to the favourite Saborido just to ease decision making? Around 1.2 to place. Will he get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race?

4pm - Mlada Boleslav v Kromeriz - 1.16 - I like getting involved in Cup matches when there is a distinct gap in the leagues. Division 1 to Division 3M and Mlada are playing at home.

820 EXETER - 10/11 - - - -8/1 at time of writing and a huge price gap means Bahira is of obvious interest. This is a bumper so ideally we need to see the market nearer the off. as I write, 5 of the 10 runners are 16/1 or bigger and Bahira should have a great chance of finishing in the first 3.

355 FAKENHAM - a novice chase so they have to complete , but 2 horses only under 25/1 makes this a very obvious race to consider.

530 PUNCHESTOWN - the competitive nature of this race is reflected in the 1.68 quote for Sizing and 1.8 for Big zeb in the place only market ( 2 places)

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

4pm - Mlada Boleslav v Kromeriz - 1.16 - big gap in leagues and home advantage but pretty much betting blind here as nothing known re opponents.,

405 BATH - best probability race of the day and it is on the flat and I would default to Saborido here to not bet beaten by 2 others in a 3 horse race.

355 FAKENHAM - favs can't really be split here in this novices chase. Clear rounds should ensure they both place.

820 EXETER - biggest price gap of the day in this bumper for McCain jr and Maguire.

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