HEAD TO HEADS
| 27.02.2011 | D1 | FC Luzern | 0-1 | FC Basel | |
| 07.11.2010 | D1 | FC Luzern | 1-1 | FC Basel | |
| 14.08.2010 | D1 | FC Basel | 1-4 | FC Luzern | |
| 18.04.2010 | D1 | FC Basel | 5-0 | FC Luzern | |
| 14.03.2010 | D1 | FC Luzern | 0-1 | FC Basel | |
| 25.10.2009 | D1 | FC Luzern | 4-5 | FC Basel |
Last 3 results in head to heads hardly screams out Basel at 1.16!
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 6th - 1 point ahead of Zurich and it would seem that this is the last match of the season. Basel win this, they win the title. The odds suggest a scoreline more like the 5-0 seen in April 2010 than the 1-0 last time out. Luzern mid table mediocrity.
HOME TEAM - BASEL_
RECENT HOME FORM -WWWWDWWW - draw was a 2-2 v Grasshoppers which saw basel 2-0 down. Won 7, drawn 1 at home this season .Have scored 3,1,2,2,2,5 in their last 6 home matches.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDDWLWDWD - as you can appreciate, the wheels are a wobbling away from home .
GOAL TRENDS - 76% over 2.5 goals at home, and a respectable 72% average overall hints immediately at a likely goals trade ( as does 1.16 odds, as you know by now) Have scored in all home matches this season. 40 scored and 20 conceded at home. 10 of last 13 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 7 of the last 9 matches. Have failed to score in only 3 matches all season.
STREAKS - 3 match home winning streak - 9 without defeat at home
AWAY TEAM - LUZERN
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLLLLW - losses have seen them conceding 2,2,3,3,2,2,3 and a recent win was a 4-0 win against 2nd from bottom. Consistent concession of goals in those losses and that draw. Have conceded 2,3,3,3 against the top 5 this season.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLLLWLDLWL - inconsistent and no wonder Basel , with added motivation, now become so short.
GOAL TRENDS - 76% over 2.5 goals away from home mirrors Basel at home. 60% overall is a good %. 5 of the last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - have only kept 6 clean sheets all season and only once away conceded less than 2 goals. 5 away without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - again it would seem to be circumstance superceding some nervy head to heads. 76% home and away overs stats indicates goals as does the 1.16 quote, which means over.3.5 and over 4.5 can usually be entertained. Do note though that a 1-0 for Basel will win them the league today, and nerves may play a part .
HEAD TO HEADS
| 03.04.2011 | D1 | FC Thun | 2-3 | FC Zürich | |
| 05.12.2010 | D1 | FC Zürich | 0-0 | FC Thun | |
| 11.09.2010 | D1 | FC Thun | 1-3 | FC Zürich |
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 5th - 1 point behind Basel and a must win although like Trab and Fener recently in turkey, Zurich could drop heads if Basel are winning easily.
HOME TEAM - ZURICH
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWWD - draw was against Basel and Zurich led 1-0 and 2-1 in that match. So entering this match on an excellent run at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWWWDDLW - shaky last 4 matches and as you can guess, 3 were away from home ( much like Basel dropping majority of points away)
GOAL TRENDS - 65% over 2.5 goals at home and a 69% average overall. Last 4 matches all over 2.5 goals. 6 of last 7 matches all over 2.5 goals. Have only failed to score in 2 matches all season
STREAKS - 12 at home without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - THUN
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDWLDWWWL - losses away to 1st and 4th and a 1-0 win over 3rd -5-1 loss to basel away and remember Zurich were leading twice v Basel recently.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWLWWWLW - wins against 3rd, 4th, 8th and 10th recently
GOAL TRENDS - 41% overs away from home. Last 4 have been over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - 4 away without a draw, 7 overall without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - zurich must win to keep title hopes alive and hope Basel draw minimum. Goals is mixed for both sides and not congruent. Thun in reasonable form but a hint they may struggle against bottom 2 yet post good results against the rest.
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Divine Call, 6/1 Masked Dance, 6/1 Northern Fling, 8/1 Academy Blues, 10/1 Cara´s Request, 10/1 Clumber Place, 16/1 Aldermoor, 16/1 Bella Noir, 16/1 En Fuego, 20/1 River Falcon, 25/1 Illustrious Prince.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Easily the one of most interest in a race comprising mainly exposed types is DIVINE CALL (nap), who represents William Haggas and Kieren Fallon. This close relation of smart Penitent, who has been gelded since his last run, showed his best turf form in testing ground last year so has conditions to suit, has reportedly pleased his trainer and could prove a good deal better than his opening mark of 78. Northern Fling may be the main danger. [Richard Young]
Price gapper coming back from a 200+ day absence but a good jockey booking and apparently suited to today's soft ground. Price gap remains 6/4 - - - - 7/1 in the early market - 1.4 to place recounts some acknowledgement regarding the absence and the ground as a price gapper like this is normally much shorter priced to place.
630 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Elmaam, 9/2 Eljowzah, 6/1 Maharanee, 10/1 Zennor, 14/1 Alkhawarah, 33/1 Lemon Queen, 100/1 American Lover, 100/1 Can Can Dancer, 150/1 Lambrini Belle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good race for favourites and ELMAAM can gain compensation for a luckless defeat at Chester this month. Eljowzah may pose most problems.[Paul Johnson]
9 runners, 3 places and a likely placer here in Elmaam. 1.06 to place is no price. Has had 2 runs already, a 3rd and an unlucky 2nd last time out, now 1/3 - - - 7/1 and the market shouts in favour of compensation today.
730 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Vocational, 2/1 Lily´s Angel, 6/1 Queens Revenge, 13/2 Dozy, 7/1 Majestic Rose, 20/1Chevanah, 25/1 Van Go Go, 50/1 Rano Pano, 66/1 Tip Top Gorgeous.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VOCATIONAL, who beat all bar the hotpot in a Listed race at York, looks a real speed merchant and can go one better here. If the final climb leaves her vulnerable, Lily's Angel could be the one to profit, though Dozy is rated Ascot material by connections and is likely to prove better than her bare form.[Paul Johnson]
Dettori/Johnston - a great combo on a market leader. 4 under 12/1 and 5 under 20/1 but this is a market I am looking at which is some 9hours prior to the race so doubtless there will be some stories re the market as the afternoon wears on. Vocational is very attractive to me given connections.
200 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mawsem, 13/8 Joker Choker, 13/2 Storm Jack, 10/1 Identimin, 20/1 Conellie, 20/1 Psychosis, 25/1 Haydens Mount, 33/1 Love Love Me Do, 50/1 Cladding.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAWSEM was below his best last time but previous efforts suggest he has what it takes to land a race of this nature and his trainer has been going well on the Flat recently. Joker Choker is comfortably the biggest danger but Identimin could reward each-way support.[Stuart Redding]
4 under 20/1 in the betting forecast makes for a potentially interesting probability race for the places. 4 under 16/1 in the live betting and Mawsem struggled last time out in class 3, beaten 27 lengths. Will this ease to class 4 help justify the odds.
415 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Full Of Spirit, 5/2 With Grace, 7/1 Shaded Edge, 14/1 Tamarillo Grove, 25/1 Tregony Bridge, 33/1 Hatchet Man, 40/1 Kayfrou, 50/1 Colonial Harry, 50/1 Jasper Cliff, 50/1 Miss Tenacious, 50/1 Softly Killing Me, 66/1 Wray Castle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Grace has the potential to improve on recent efforts but this will be her third race within three weeks and she could be vulnerable to a fresher rival such as FULL OF SPIRIT, who is bred to be a cut above this level.[Stuart Redding]
L plates on this lot in a maiden hurdle but an interesting betting market make up makes this a race to look at. 3 under 14/1 in the live betting and 4 under 20/1
220 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Abergavenny, 3/1 Mejd, 14/1 Cricket Bat, 20/1 Turbolinas, 33/1 Ancient Times, 33/1 Bolt From The Blue.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Useful Flat performer ABERGAVENNY has been very well placed to win twice over hurdles by in-form yard and, given he isn't penalised for either victory, will be hard to beat on these terms. Mejd looks the main danger. [Richard Young]
A safe enough conveyance having won recently over hurdles and looks primed to place, albeit only 2 places and a clear round required here. 1/3 in the live betting after 2 wins escaping a penalty and back in professional jockey's hands. 1.25 to win and 1.08 to place
FRENCH OPEN
1215 - Hanescu v Djokovic - 1.21 for 3-0 sets to Djoko. 5-0 in head to heads and Djoko dropped a set to Hanescu at this venue last time out but won the remaining sets 6-3 , 6-2. As long as he wins the first set, that 1.21 will shorten well for trading.
SHORTLIST
5pm - Byasen v Rosenborg - 1.19 away - most appealing of the Norwegian fixtures should see the reputation of Rosenborg bring the odds home.
715pm - FC Basel v Luzern - 1.16 home - win the match, win the league it would seem.
715pm - FC Zurich v Thun - 1.27 home - win this match to stay in with a shout of title if Basel draw or lose.
630 BEVERLEY - Elmaam priced to win this after luckless run last time out. 1.3 win, 1.06 place
730 BEVERLEY - Vocational of great interest under Dettori/Johnston - surely a sub par run could still result in a place in a race where 4 are currently under 12/1 anad 5 under 20/1
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