Monday, 16 May 2011

16/5

Usual Monday fare and I hope the run continues with Dinamo Bucharest this evening. The form matches the odds. Place bets nearer the 745pm as the market is illiquid this early on. A draw is a possibility but a win most likely and 2,3, goals to boot.

*****ONE A DAY - 745pm - Dinamo Bucharest v Victoria Branesti - back Dinamo Bucharest in the match odds at 1.17 or as near as possible and place bet nearer to 745pm*****
Do note that Dinamo were 3-0 up in corresponding fixture and it ended 4-2. For peace of mind, consider trading out if 2-0 or 3-0.



Apologies for late message yesterday, I was getting carried away with the football research and by the time it occured to me that rangers were a superb bet, it was 1215pm - still the message arrived in my inbox at 1225pm.

5pm - Rosenborg v Haugesund - 1.32 - only 6 games in and its 11th plays 16th. A bit too early for any real stats and trends.
Only 2 relevant head to heads.
Rosenborg have won their last 2 matches 2-0 and are very short here at home. Haugesund have only won 1 so far, and have conceded 2,2,1,3,5,4 - they conceded 2 in the match they lost, and conceded 4 in a 3-4 last time out.
Goals anyone, and now an indicator as to why Rosenborg are short. I have not done full research as we are only 6 games in and can only get a flavour.

730pm -Dijon v Grenoble - 1.4 home - worth looking at as this is French Division 2 but 2nd ( a win takes them top ) v bottom.

HEAD TO HEADS

17.12.2010D2Grenoble3-1Dijon FCO
24.07.2010CFDijon FCO4-0Grenoble
03.03.2009CupDijon FCO1-1/p.2-4Grenoble

A gloss on the scoreline with a 90th minute winner but a shock early result.

LEAGUE POSITION 2nd v 20th - Grenoble adrift at the bottom but a win for Dijon takes them joint top , albeit 2nd on goal difference.

HOME TEAM -DIJON

RECENT HOME FORM - WWLLDWWWDW - have beaten the 3 of the bottom 4 they have played at home. Only 3 losses at home, all 1-0's

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWWWDDWWW - great recent form - draws were both 1-1's

GOAL TRENDS - 41% over 2.5 goals 2 of last 3 over 2.5 goals but only 2 of last 6 over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 8 of last 10 matches. Have scored in all of last 8 matches.

STREAKS - 6 at home without defeat. 8 overall without defeat. Current winning streak of 3 overall.

AWAY TEAM - GRENOBLE

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDDLLDWLD - have only won 2 away from home, both 1-0's Have lost all against top 5 away but get this, 2-0 loss to Evian, and then 1-0 losses against 3rd, 4th, 5th, - This could be a tricky match for the Mustard Men.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWDLWDLDDDD includes a recent 1-1 home draw against top side.

GOAL TRENDS - 41% over 2.5 goals. 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals ( both 2-2 draws) but in a wider context, 11 of the last 14 matches have been under 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 2 away without a win. 6 over all without a win and no defeeat in 4.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - although unlikely to win this fixture, Grenoble have seemed a tad unlucky, especially against the top 6, losing 1-0 on 4 occasions. This could be a tricky match for Dijon as long as Grenoble turn up ( they have nothing to play for and are doomed!) . Under 2.5 goals might be a goer along with backing 0-0 initially to trade? back 1-0 and 0-1 ( all of Dijon's home match defeats were 1-0 and Grenoble's sole wins away were 1-0's)

Not a match I would contemplate given the time of the season and the bias towards Dijon's need for 3 points proving the form all wrong?

HEAD TO HEADS

22.11.2010D1Victoria Branesti2-4Dinamo Bucuresti

Dinamo were 3-0 up in that match.

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 17th/18

HOME TEAM - DINAMO

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWWL - recent loss v Cluj (8th) 4,2,3,3,1 scored at home for Dinamo in their recent matches.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLWDWWLLW - last 2 losses against 6th and 8th.

GOAL TRENDS - average 2.31 scored and 1.69 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 6 at home without a draw, 7 overall without a draw.2 match winning streak.

AWAY TEAM - VICTORIA

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLLLL since the winter break pretty emphatic.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLDLLLLLL - again not a win in sight.

GOAL TRENDS - have conceded in all away matches ( last 15). 0.94 scored and 2.25 conceded on average at home, almost the reverse of Dinamo.

STREAKS - 19 overall without a win. 6 lost in a row. 11 away games without a win. Lost last 5 away .

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - looks fairly obvious to me, although there are not too many home and away matches to decide on ( Winter break return the culprit.) The goals averages mirror each other which makes over 2.5 goals appealing ( almost obligatory as this is a sub 1.2 home team). This should reflect the away score of 4-2 - where Dinamo were leading 3-0.


520 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Ceol Rua, 9/2 Catcherinscratcher, 8/1 Lisrenny Lady, 9/1 Evesham Star, 10/1 Bohola Lady, 14/1 Clarach, 16/1 Boro Bee, 16/1 Carrig Cottage, 20/1 Backinthere, 20/1 Be Frankful, 20/1 Lady Samphire, 20/1 Shellys Creek, 20/1 Wheresmary, 20/1 Witness Belle, 25/1 Andunowhat, 33/1 Lackabane Jessie, 50/1 Arctic Clouds, 50/1 Beneficial Leap.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CEOL RUA is the best of these on bumper form and can make a winning hurdling debut at the expense of the consistent but exposed mares, Evesham Star and Lisrenny Lady. [Alan Hewison]

If I was in Ireland, I would be here tonight! Walsh/Mullins on the favourite and a very short price in a 21 runner maiden hurdle. 11/8 - - - - - 7/1 price gapper here. If he avoids trouble that could come with such a big field, Ruby should see Ceol Rua placed at least

820 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rudi Trucker, 9/2 Emergency Cover, 13/2 Optimum Force, 10/1 Family Oficial, 12/1Verumontanum, 14/1 Smiths Hill, 20/1 Noble Chic, 25/1 Arkwright, 25/1 Code Of Silence, 25/1 Present Citizen, 33/1 Biker Boy, 33/1 Elms Star.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should prove fairly straightforward for RUDI TRUCKER providing that all is well following his Punchestown lapse. Emergency Cover can fight it out for the minor money with Optimum Force and Family Official. [Alan Sweetman]

4/5 - - - - - 6/1 price gapper in this hunters chase.


710 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Fremen, 9/2 Unlimited, 11/2 Lady Florence, 7/1 Just Five, 8/1 Fault, 10/1 Advertise, 12/1Fawley Green, 14/1 Sirjosh, 16/1 Bajan Pride, 20/1 Jasmin Rai, 25/1 Kenswick, 66/1 The Blind Side.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lady Florence and Just Five are respected on their best 2010 form but have looked out of sorts recently. Unlimited could be a big player if translating his AW progress back to turf, but the most solid option is admirable veteran FREMEN (nap), who has an impressive strike-rate of 12-21 in sellers/claimers since June 2009. [David Moon]

" admirable veteran" -a description suited to yours truly. Fremen is a 6/5 - - --5/1 price gapper here.

630 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Magic City, 5/1 Bannock, 5/1 Foxtrot India, 6/1 Signifer, 12/1 Ortea, 33/1 Steady The Buffs, 66/1 Middleton Flyer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Richard Hannon has won this for the last two years and MAGIC CITY can provide him with another success in this race. So impressive when thrashing Signifer on his debut at Newbury, he reportedly returned home with sore shins after going down to subsequent York winner Miss Work Of Art at Ascot and is well worth another chance, although Bannock and Foxtrot India are clearly promising too.[Adrian Cook]

1/2 - - - - -6/1 this Magic City so the market presumes the horse is over his sore shins. bannock is very interesting for Johnston after having been spanked into short price favouratism in his last race. 2 places should ensure a reasonable place only price for the Hannon/Hughes horse.

700 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: Evs April Fool, 9/2 Getcarter, 8/1 Indian Shuffle, 10/1 Nubar Boy, 12/1 Doctor Hilary, 16/1 Brave Tiger, 20/1 Prince Namid, 25/1 Mollyow, 25/1 Sunrise Lyric, 33/1 Griffin Point, 100/1 Bahkov.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many solid propositions here and the prolific front-running winner APRIL FOOL can get away with the drop in trip. Getcarter can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]

Only 2 under 10/1 to dominate this low grade claimer?

830 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Quality Art, 7/2 Fair Value, 9/2 Penny´s Pearl, 13/2 Look Who´s Kool, 10/1 Khaleeji, 12/1Basilica, 20/1 Scarlet Rocks, 20/1 Style And Panache.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUALITY ART (nap) had a couple of these behind him when scoring emphatically at Kempton and may well have enough further improvement in him to defy a 10lb rise. He shares joint top weight with Penny's Pearlwho is quite interesting back down in grade, while Look Who's Kool is also worth a second look.[Steven Boow]

4/5 - - - - 11/2 price gapper here in an ideal race - 8 runners and 3 places - 2 horses are 20/1 or bigger and 2 others are 14/1 and hopefully run as such. - Ryan Moore a fine pilot!


SHORTLIST

5pm - Rosenborg v Haugesund - 1.32 - huge goal trend for away side in a league of only 6 matches played ( so risky to make betting decisions just yet) - 1.15 over 1.5 goals looks very strong here if Haugesund can help contribute as they have. Haugesund have conceded 12 in their last 3 matches but they have not scored away.

745pm - Dinamo Bucharest v Victoria Branesti - 1.17 home - obvious of course but still have to do the research which indicates Dinamo score 2+ on average at home, and Victoria concede 2+ on average away. Over 1.5 goals is 1.16 but illiquid. Match odds is a little illiquid but this does look a decent bet form wise.

820 KILLARNEY - although tempting I think I will miss the 520 with its 21 runners! "fairly straightforward for Rudi Trucker"? But was a faller last time out. Very illiquid market.

630 WINDSOR - Magic City , if over sore shins, has been very well backed to run well today for Hannon/Hughes - 1.15 to place ( again illiquid as evening meeting) in a race of 2 places.

830 WINDSOR - QUality Art is up in the weights in this handicap but in an 8 runner, 3 place race, can the assistance of Ryan Moore ensure a place?



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