HEAD TO HEADS
| 18.03.2011 | D2 | Austria Lustenau | 0-1 | Admira | |
| 22.10.2010 | D2 | Austria Lustenau | 2-1 | Admira | |
| 02.08.2010 | D2 | Admira | 2-0 | Austria Lustenau | |
| 07.05.2010 | D2 | Admira | 2-1 | Austria Lustenau | |
| 20.11.2009 | D2 | Admira | 1-0 | Austria Lustenau | |
| 22.08.2009 | D2 | Austria Lustenau | 1-0 | Admira |
Admira have won 4 of last 5 and all 3 at home. Tightish scorelines throughout.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 3rd but 20 point difference. 2nd placed are 3 points behind so a win for Admira appreciated to keep the gap at the top.
HOME TEAM ADMIRA -
RECENT HOME FORM - WLDDWW - loss was against First Vienna who are 9th of 10 in this league! Recent draws at home against 2nd and 7th so not really dominating consistently.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLLDLDLWWW - recent wins emphatic - 7-3, 1-2, 3-0 against 10th, 8th and 6th.Sticky patch in the middle again points to inconsistencies with league leaders
GOAL TRENDS - average 2.76 at home scored and 1.06 conceded. 12 wins, 2 losses, 3 draws at home
STREAKS - 3 match winning streak , 4 at home without a draw
AWAY TEAM LUSTENAU
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDWLDLL - last loss was against bottom side who just lost 7-3 to Admira!
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLWDWLLLD - recent win was 3-0 at home to 4th and 3-2 at home against 9th ( needed a 90th minute penalty for the winner so puts it in perspective a tad)
GOAL TRENDS - last 5 away league matches all over 2.5 goals - last 9 league matches overall all over 2.5 goals. - 1.18 scored on average and 1.06 conceded away. Only 3 clean sheets in 17 away so vulnerable to at least a goal.
STREAKS - 3 overall without a win, 4 away without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - always tough to do these 10 team leagues as familiarity can skew the stats. 1st v 3rd here and it may not sound as close as 1st v 3rd!! 20 points separate them. Lay the draw an angle in? In a league of 10, no draw in 4 might be a good stat for both? Last 5 away matches for away side over 2.5 goals as were last 9 matches overall ( yes the head to heads do not really back this up, but recent form v historical?)
HEAD TO HEADS
| 21.12.2010 | D2 | US Boulogne | 0-1 | Dijon FCO | |
| 13.02.2009 | D2 | Dijon FCO | 1-0 | US Boulogne | |
| 29.08.2008 | D2 | US Boulogne | 3-0 | Dijon FCO |
69th and 74th minute winners last 2 matches means this could be another tight affair today where 0-0 might be backable initially?
LEAGUE POSITION - joint top v 7th. Dijon are 2nd only on goal difference of 4 goals.
HOME TEAM - DIJON -
RECENT HOME FORM - LLDWWWDWW - 5 wins and a 1-1 in last 6 at home -great form at the right time to keep title hopes and, more importantly, promotion alive. Drawn 4th, 5th and 6th, and lost to 8th so perhaps Dijon struggle against top sides at home. 3 losses at home have all been 1-0's
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWWWDDWWWW -solid recent form. The draws were both 1-1's
GOAL TRENDS - 44% over 2.5 goals at home.3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 9 of last 11. Have scored in 11 of last 12 matches. Dijon have scored in all last 6 home matches and conceded in 5 of those 6.
STREAKS - 2 match winning streak and 7 at home without defeat.
AWAY TEAM -BOULOGNE
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLLWLLD - I was just about to say they don't do draws! 4 draws away to top 6 kind of ties in with Dijon's draws at home to 4th, 5ht and 6th. But these draws all came in the first 8 matches of the season so are they really relevant recent form?
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWWLLWLLDW - lost of goals in recent matches.
GOAL TRENDS - having just said the above, I note 29% over 2.5 goals away from home! They've scored only 12 away and conceded 24. 6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 11 of last 12 matches. Have scored in 5 of last 7 matches.
STREAKS - 3 away without a win
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Dijon won last 2 head to heads 1-0 with 69 and 74th minute goals. Signs of a tight match today? But 3 of last 4 Dijon matches over 2,5 goals and 6 of last 8 Boulogne matches over 2.5 goals. Dijon have drawn against 4th, 5th and 6th and Boulogne have drawn against 4 of the top 5 ( although all of those drawn matches were early season ( prior to October 2010)
A tough match to call this one, with mixed messages re goals.
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Toffee Tart, 6/1 Vieira Da Silva, 12/1 Ida Inkley, 16/1 Betty Fontaine, 25/1 Bella Ponte, 25/1 Purple Angel.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a deal weaker than the race TOFFEE TART almost won on her debut and she'll obviously be hard to beat. Ida Inkley could be the one for the forecast.[Graham Wheldon]
She'll never be found an easier opening, so says Spotlight and if that is the case, the win only might be a consideration, albeit in a maiden for 2 year olds with Toffee Tart only having the one run, nose 2nd at 16/1 on debut. Unseated rider at start of that race. May still be green.
440 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Annelko, 6/4 Penang Cinta, 8/1 Zagarock, 16/1 Telescopic, 20/1 Bussell Along, 20/1Flamestone, 25/1 Darfour, 25/1 Kargarann.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A surprise were this not to go to either Tuesday winner Penang Cinta or ANNELKO. Preference is for the latter, who's relatively lightly raced and found a bit of improvement this spring.[Graham Wheldon]
A great race for place only consideration. 2 dominate the betting, there are now 7 runners and still 3 places, and 2 under 10/1 - class 6 0-60 so these horses are low class.
615 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Leblon, 4/1 Benefique, 9/2 Brave Beauty, 5/1 Benefit Of Porter, 8/1 Bleakfield Lady, 12/1Knockcroghery, 25/1 Lost Horizon, 66/1 Tigress Hill.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Having won this race a year ago John O'Shea has a strong contender this time in LEBLON (nap)who may be chased home by Benefique and Brave Beauty. [Alan Sweetman]
8 runners and 3 places and an evening mares hurdle so ideally we want to view the markets nearer the off.Leblon is a shade of odds on currently, albeit very early.
715 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Eirland, 7/2 Resolute Bay, 5/1 Eimears Oscar, 7/1 Hang Up My Boots, 10/1 Bandra Bullet, 10/1 Katys Girl, 12/1 Minnie Maguire, 20/1 Demoolah, 20/1 Ella Mia, 20/1 Hes Electric, 25/1 Quws Quest, 33/1 Rosepeg, 50/1Secret Hill, 50/1 Yanavita, 66/1 Luso´s Girl.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A significant improver since making the transition from bumpers, EIRLAND may step up a place following his Cork second. The first-time blinkered Resolute Bay and Eimears Oscar look capable of reaching the money. [Alan Sweetman]
Eirland has come 3rd and 2nd ( front 2 clear by 13 lengths from 3rd placed) in his 2 maiden hurdles and this Gordon Elliott horse has Paul Carberry onboard, brother to Nina who won on GOlden Call last night late on.
745 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hoochie Mama, 7/1 Mcswynes Bay, 8/1 Kanesh, 9/1 Ballito, 9/1 High Talk, 9/1 West Ship Master, 10/1 Jamadiel, 14/1 Galway Legend, 14/1 Mr Springer, 14/1 Rosiel, 20/1 Heroes Square, 20/1 Rossbeigh, 25/1 Saddler´s Native, 33/1 Ashfield Present, 33/1 Metal Master.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Course form is always noteworthy at Downpatrick but there is quite a bit of it on offer here.HOOCHIE MAMA, however, is one of the few who has improvement in her and should take the beating under Davy Russell. [Johnny Ward]
13/8 - - - 7/1 in the live betting and if that price gap remains nearer to 745pm, then the fine Davy Russell should get Hoochie Mama placed at least.
530 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tenhoo, 4/1 Amical Risks, 7/1 Dubara Reef, 7/1 Straversjoy, 12/1 Scarab, 14/1 Cluain Alainn, 20/1 Amana.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TENHOO (nap), who goes well for Nathan Alison and bounded to victory last week, looks set to complete his hat-trick. Amical Risks and Straversjoy may the ones to beat.[Paul Johnson]
8 runners and 3 places and a price gapper, albeit in an apprentice ridden handicap. The horse is a multiple winner in a handicap and these winning runs, in handicaps, inevitably end soon as weight tells. 8/13 - - - - -6/1 in the live betting and apparently 4 lbs ahead of the handicapper.
700 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Fulbright, 11/4 Exceedance, 7/2 Blue Shoes, 11/2 Valley Of Hope, 16/1 Kool Henry, 16/1Sonko, 66/1 Come To Mind, 66/1 Musical Strike.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The twice-raced Blue Shoes is right up there on the figures but FULBRIGHT looks the most promising of those with experience. Market confidence behind newcomer Exceedance, whose trainer has a good strike-rate with juveniles at this track, would be significant.[Steven Boow]
Another maiden but 8 runners and 3 places here so ideal for place only betting. Further, now a 7 runner race for 3 places and 4 are under 20/1 so a superb probability race.
730 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Peintre D´argent, 9/2 Dar Es Salaam, 8/1 Bollin Greta, 8/1 Cat O´ Nine Tails, 10/1 Chookie Hamilton, 10/1 Hawk Mountain, 14/1 Gordonsville, 14/1 Wells Lyrical, 20/1 French Hollow, 20/1 Mason Hindmarsh.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PEINTRE D'ARGENT (nap) has an outstanding chance on paper. Unpenalised for her very easy success in a Newbury apprentice event on her reappearance last Friday, she'll be forced to race off a stone higher in future handicaps and Harry Bentley's handy 5lb claim is a bonus, while her pedigree suggests she'll be at least as effective back at 1m6f. Dar Es Salaam, runner-up the last twice, could be set for the same position again.[Steven Boow]
4/5 - - - - 7/1 in the live betting, albeit nearly 10 hours prior to race time, Peintre D'argent looks to have solid credentials for placing, albeit under a claimer. Up in trip 2 furlongs, can we trust a claimer instead of a professional?
540 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bahira, 11/8 Management, 8/1 Barnack, 10/1 Kilshanna, 33/1 Before Bruce, 66/1 Exiles Return.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Management should be able to pick up another race at this level but he might find it hard to give the weight to promising triple bumper winner BAHIRA, who is getting the allowances. The others make limited appeal for differing reasons.[Emily Weber]
3 under 20/1 makes Barnack an obvious each way shout if the front 2 falter in this novices hurdle. The market puts Bahira as odds on in a good probability race.
625 WEXFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Alayir, 5/2 Quaintly, 6/1 Glendaragh, 7/1 Scoot My Friend, 10/1 Noble Call, 12/1 Hold The Aces, 12/1 Mama Sox, 12/1 Regal Tramp, 16/1 Templeton.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALAYIR [NAP] started favourite when runner-up over a slightly shorter trip at Dundalk last time and the gelded son of Azamour deserves another chance with cheekpieces fitted for the first time. Quaintly is also tried in the same headgear stepping up in trip too and she looks the main threat following her seasonal return at Tipperary last month. [Brian Fleming]
9 runners and 3 places and 2 dominate. Both in first time cheekpieces. Oxx/Murtagh on fav and Lordan/Wachman on 2nd fav.
450 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Nurai, 5/1 Market Puzzle, 7/1 Lytham, 7/1 Miss Blink, 7/1 Petsas Pleasure, 10/1 Art Scholar, 10/1 Iguacu, 14/1 Jasmin Rai, 20/1 Hamilton Hill, 20/1 Officer Lily, 33/1 Ocean Rosie, 66/1 Moonlight Fantasy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary handicap in which NURAI makes most appeal. A fast-ground winner last year, the filly showed improved form upped to this trip when second at Yarmouth last week (first two long way clear) and she will be 4lb higher in future. At bigger odds Hamilton Hill is one to keep an eye on. [Richard Young]
price gapper here with Dazzler onboard.
SHORTLIST
6pm - Galatasaray v Konyaspor - 1.39 home - Konyaspor are down regardless. This is the last match at home for Gala and may provide the requisite motivation to back them to win and give supporters a send off ? Goals are fancied in the market and over 1.5 goals is 1.15 and over 2.5 goals as low as 1.45. But this is a dead rubber!
210 BATH - Spotlight's assertion that Toffee Tart will never be found an easier race is interesting and would lead me to the win only market and 1.25 ( 1.08 to place) - a one time out 2 year old maiden in a 5 furlong sprint is perhaps not the kind of race that leaps out?
440 BATH - 7 runners and 3 places still on Betfair and 2 horses dominating the market - of Penang Cinta, there is some interesting info from the analysis of his last race
"
PENANG CINTA lost his form as 2010 went on, but he had dropped to 13lb lower than his last win and got back on track with a gutsy victory at a venue where he has a record of 3512112181. His resurgence could continue and it is worth noting that his last eight wins have been in single-figure fields."
Another single figure field today and a race where he only has to avoid getting beaten by 4 others to place - Anelko is the other contender and they cannot be split at the head of the market.
Around 1.2 to place.
615 DOWNPATRICK - 8 runners and 3 places and 2 at 66/1 makes this 6 runners, 3 places and a 50/50 chance that Leblon, short priced fav, will place.
715 DOWNPATRICK - Eirland looks to be progressing and was 13lengths clear of the rest of the field when 2nd last time out over 3 miles. Now 2 miles 5 today and a clear round should see a place.
530 HAYDOCK - Tenhoo appears in an ideal place only race, 8/13 - - - 6/1 , 8 runners and 3 places.
"He´ll look well treated if taking his chanceunder a penalty in another apprentice race at Haydock next week and will still be of interest once his new mark kicks in" so says the analysis of his last race.
700 mUSSELBURGH - although a maiden there are 7 runners, still 3 places on offer on Betfair, and 4 under 20/1 Superb probability chance for any of the 4 under 20/1 ( as long as the betting market this early is accurate) . No sign of odds at present some 8 hours prior.
730 MUSSELBURGH - heartening to see that Harry Bentley has ridden Peintre D'argent before so my negative concerns seem unfounded. Huge price gapper 4/5 - - - 8/1 is compelling as is the " outstanding chance on paper" - pity he is not running on paper!!
Due to go up a stone in future! and " miles ahead of the handicapper"
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
730 MUSSELBURGH - it looks like Peintre D'argent should be top of the list ( almost too good to be true feel about the horse) -huge price gapper and should place if failing to win.
700 MUSSELBURGH - is probably the best probability race of the day and I feel Blue Shoes and Fulbright should run well in a 7 horse race, 3 places and 4 only under 20/1. I cannot offer any place only prices or recount if they are worth backing or not as the markets are very illiquid this early prior to an evening meeting.
530 HAYDOCK - Tenhoo looks to have a great chance in another 8 runner race for 3 places, to at least place again. The analyst of his last race still sees this handicapper as well treated. My concern is that this one is a multiple winner and they bomb out eventually but he is apparently 4 lbs ahead of the handicapper.
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