17/5

A provisional message as the betting markets are not formed yet. But what would I shortlist now? Well Lokeren have not won any of their play off matches which makes them opposable, but back Anderlecht? I am afraid this play off format bamboozles me and I do not know where to find a table which will tell me if Anderlecht need to win as this is the last match of the season. Last home match for Anderlecht a telling factor?

As with Man City who would go 3rd with 1 match to play if winning against a Stoke side who have lost all away matches against the top 10. Another tight match in prospect.

Horse racing wise, well it is so difficult to decide based upon just a betting forecast and not the live prices, but as things stand,

250 BRIGHTON - Chaussini

850 KILLARNEY - 3 horses for 2 places

410 SOUTHWELL - Cygnet and Kings Realm the 2 to focus on and I would opt for the former.

440 SOUTHWELL - Sky calling a big price gapper

Of these, I would further shortlist Man City , Chaussini, Sense of Purpose in the 850 Killarney and 410 Southwell, Cygnet

If I can, I will look at the markets nearer the off and decide again. If you don't hear from me, I have been unable to get to a computer.

Dinamo Bucharest won 3-1 and I hope a reasonable price was available by 745pm.

It was a difficult day for the horse racing so I decided to go with a shortie more likely.

530pm - Admira Wacker v FC Lustenau - 1.32 home - Austrian 2nd flight so not perhaps a league I am over familiar with ( much like the Frenchies 2nd Division yesterday)

730pm - Anderlecht v Lokeren - 1.42 home - I am a little confused - this is the final match of the season and on 20th March there was a change from Division 1 to Division 1 Championship? Is this match today a league match as if it is then, as the last match, it is a must win for Anderlecht as they have only a point in favour of Genk and goal difference is only 1.

HEAD TO HEADS

24.04.2011	D1Ch	KSC Lokeren	1-2	Anderlecht
12.12.2010	D1	Anderlecht	0-0	KSC Lokeren
21.08.2010	D1	KSC Lokeren	0-3	Anderlecht
21.03.2010	D1	KSC Lokeren	0-4	Anderlecht
31.10.2009	D1	Anderlecht	2-0	KSC Lokeren
05.04.2009	D1	KSC Lokeren	0-0	Anderlecht

bar 2 0-0 draws this has been Anderlecht's match in head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 5th - a win secures the title IF this is a league match and not some kind of extended play off? It does seem to be an extended play off so I have no clue how things are calculated. The league seemed to have stopped on 20th March ( take a look at Soccerstats.com, but there have been 9 matches played in the interim in this extended play off format. REsearch then, from the stats up to 20th March, seems pointless.

http://unevenbounce.blogspot.com/2011/03/mon-14-march-if-you-thought-belgian.html explains the play offs well. Is this a must win for Anderlecht? I don't know and as such I am not sure whether the 1.42 is representative of a must win or not.

Anyway, as this is the last home match of the season, you would hope Anderlecht " do a Bayern" and win.

745pm - Man City v Stoke - 1.45 home - a rerun of the FA Cup Final and a replication of tactics and score? City were all over Stoke in that FA Cup. All to play for for City as a win will take them to 3rd place with one match to play, thanks to the continuous implosion of Arsenal.

HEAD TO HEADS

14.05.2011	Cup	Manchester City	1-0	Stoke City
27.11.2010	PR	Stoke City	1-1	Manchester City
24.02.2010	Cup	Stoke City	3-1 AET	Manchester City
16.02.2010	PR	Stoke City	1-1	Manchester City
13.02.2010	Cup	Manchester City	1-1	Stoke City
26.12.2009	PR	Manchester City	2-0	Stoke City

Generally tight affairs these matches with Man City unbeaten at their home ground.

LEAGUE POSITION 4th v 9th

HOME TEAM - MAN CITY -

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWWWDWWWW - solid at home. loss was against Everton and draw against Fulham ( both teams are just above Stoke!)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLDWLDWLWLWWLW - 4 wins in last 6 is reasonable recent form.

GOAL TRENDS 50/50 with over 2.5 goals at home so dependent on the goal trends for the opposition really.Have kept a clean sheet in 61% of home matches so a replication of 1-0 Fa Cup Final? 4 of their last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Have conceded only 12 goals away from home all season.

STREAKS - 4 match home winning streak - 8 without a draw overall and 9 without defeat.

AWAY TEAM - STOKE

RECENT AWAY FORM - - LLLLLLLDD - ended that losing sequence with 2 draws v Villa and Blackpool. Have lost away to all of the top 10 they have played.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWLLDLWDLDWDW - inconsistent form but unbeaten in last 4 matches including a 3-1 home win against Arsenal.

GOAL TRENDS - 44% over 2.5 goals away and failed to score in 50% of away matches - add that to City's 61% clean sheets and we have FA Cup Final scoreline part 2!!

STREAKS - O/U/O/U/O/U/O - OVERS and Unders streaks in recent matches - inconsistent and tough to read.Who would have thought they would score 3 away at Arsenal? HAve only scored 1 goal in the first quarter of an hour all season, so layable in that first 15 minutes?

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - a meaningless fixture for Stoke, but then so was the win against Arsenal! This can be classed as a must win for Man City as top 3 sounds a lot better than top 4. City were dominant in the FA Cup Final ( watching Stoke is worse than going shopping with a woman!) and I suspect City will prevail by a tight margin again, but ample warning against the Ides of May and unexpected results as Stoke mullered Arsenal last time out.

Emphatically though, Stoke have lost away conceding 1 or 2 against all of the top 10, so expectation is for them not to win this match. 2 draws most recently ended a torrid away losing run. This is City's last home match which could be a telling fact here to sway us towards City to win to nil?

250 BRIGHTON

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Chaussini, 7/2 Deerslayer, 7/2 Secret Lake, 11/1 Make My Mark.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHAUSSINI will be very hard to beat judged on her reappearance run off 77 in a much better race than this on the AW last month and looks the answer to this extremely weak maiden. Secret Lake may be next best. [Mel Cullinan]

"very hard to beat" with Ryan Moore in the plate and a 3 horse race we can argue, for 2 places. Looks ideal .

350 BRIGHTON

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Celestial Girl, 9/4 Alubari, 4/1 Agapanthus, 4/1 Penang Cinta, 25/1 The Wonga Coup.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CELESTIAL GIRL (nap) did well in a busy 2010, including when twice a winner here, and looks to have been found a good opening in this uncompetitive handicap. She can see off another runner with a good record at Brighton in Penang Cinta. Barney Curley's course winner Agapanthus is worth watching closely in the betting - confidence behind him would be significant. [Mel Cullinan]

Agapanthus I think is one of the famous gambles where Curley took multi millions off the bookies last year! All Hail Barney! So money for him today would be interesting.

700 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Baltic Light, 9/2 Hidden Valley, 11/2 Rose Willow, 8/1 Heavenly Music, 10/1 Hygrove Welshlady, 10/1 Tiger Tess, 33/1 Morgana, 66/1 April Belle.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BALTIC LIGHT found a stablemate too strong on her Nottingham debut but she did more than enough there to think she had races in her and this looks a good opportunity to get off the mark. Tiger Tess is respected as an each-way alternative.[Paul Smith]

Ideal race of 8 runners and 3 places and Baltic Light is a price gapper in the betting forecast ( the live betting market is not formed yet) but this is a maiden fillies event and Baltic has only had one run and is making all weather debut today.

850 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sense Of Purpose, 2/1 Syann, 11/4 Run For Sol, 50/1 Aliceaneileen, 66/1 Urban Beach, 66/1 Utrillo´s Art.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With half the field dead-wood, SENSE OF PURPOSE is selected to continue Dermot Weld's good record in this race at the expense of the quite highly-tried Syann and the progressive hurdler Run For Sol. [Alan Hewison]

Wish I was there! This is the only possibly fathomable race on a tough card ( let's face it the racing is incidental when you go to Killarney races) 3 horses and 2 places and an obviously strong probability chance the favourite will place.

410 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Cygnet, 13/8 King´s Realm, 5/1 Bedouin Bay, 16/1 Argaum, 20/1 Irish Symphony, 20/1Tiradia, 33/1 Arco Felice, 50/1 Lithaam, 100/1 Northumberland.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KING'S REALM is given the nod over Cygnet, though there shouldn't be much between them on the book. Newcomer Bedouin Bay is easily the most interesting of the others.[Jonathan Neesom]

Without recourse to the live betting as I write, Cygnet and Kings REalm look the 2 in a race where 3 are under 16/1 I personally would favour Cygnet given the long hurdles experience.

440 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sky Calling, 13/2 Twentynineblack, 8/1 Alfloramoor, 8/1 Semi Detached, 10/1 Sacco D´oro, 14/1 Apache Dawn, 16/1 Rampant Ronnie, 25/1 Tinseltown, 33/1 Napoletano.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond SKY CALLING, who has plenty going for him against rivals who mostly have a great deal to prove.[Jonathan Neesom]

One of the best price gappers of the day here - a clear round as ever should suffice for Sky Calling.

810 TOWCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Paint The Clouds, 3/1 Downward Spiral, 4/1 Arkose, 25/1 Earcomesthedream, 100/1 Roman Landing.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PAINT THE CLOUDS must think this game is a doddle at the minute and he looked a fairly safe conveyance on his chasing debut, so a four-timer seems highly likely. Downward Spiral is the safest forecast option.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Won by 11 lengths on chase debut under up and coming young jockey AP McCoy,