Sunday 29 May 2011

29/5

Take the hit today and go low with Fame and Glory who should place easily if running under par. Concern with 2 fancies of mine today, Zoffany and Rite of Passage, that they both have long absences to overcome.
Alternative to fame and Glory is Fashionable gal, a 12/1 winner on hurdles bow last time out, and 10/11 fav now, but a reasonable 1.23 to place in a race where 4 are under 20/1

*****ONE A DAY - 210 UTTOXETER - FASHIONABLE GAL TO PLACE - try to get 1.23*****



Rive D'estruval won yesterday.

130pm - Excelsior v Helmond Sport - 1.42 home- Dutch play offs I think features bottom side from top flight and 3rd from 2nd tier. Tough to research, logic would dictate the top tier team would have the advantage but then they are in the bottom few.
2pm - Albinoleffe v Siena - 1.34 home - why are Albinoleffe 1.34 at home when Siena still need points to wrap up the Division? Or have I missed something?

HEAD TO HEADS

08.01.2011D2AC Siena2-1AlbinoLeffe
23.08.2008CupAC Siena4-0AlbinoLeffe
Only 1 head to head of significance

LEAGUE POSITION - 18th v 2nd - Albinoleffe definitely need a win to avoid the play offs, Siena , it would seem, are up and although they could win the title with Atalanta only 1 point ahead and a draw in their match 1.84, it seems that Fat Tony has decreed a home win.

I am not going to do any research with such a skewed market . Siena would normally be strong favourites here but it seems they are up and not fussed who wins the league as long as they go up.


2pm - Ascoli v Triestina - 1.11 home

HEAD TO HEADS

08.01.2011D2US Triestina2-0Ascoli Calcio
13.04.2010D2Ascoli Calcio1-0US Triestina
15.11.2009D2US Triestina2-0Ascoli Calcio
07.02.2009D2US Triestina1-2Ascoli Calcio


LEAGUE POSITION - 17th v 20th - Triestina are stuck in automatic relegation Ascoli are on 46 points and a win sees them clear

Yet again it seems that Fat Tony has ensured a home win before the match is played as never usually would Ascoli be 1/10 on to win a match against fellow strugglers. Again I am not going to research as this match looks prearranged.


4pm - CSKA Moscow v Kuban Krasnodar - 1.43 home

HEAD TO HEADS

04.10.2009D1CSKA Moscow4-0Kuban Krasnodar
24.05.2009D1Kuban Krasnodar1-0CSKA Moscow
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 5th and CSKA have played 9 and Kuban 10 and they are on 18 and 17 points repectively

HOME TEAM - CSKA MOSCOW

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWLW - 5 home matches this season. - only loss against Spartak Moscow ( 8th)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWDLDWW - reasonable form this season and a nice winning streak currently.

GOAL TRENDS - 1.4 scorfed 0-6 conceded in the 5 home matches so far - 2 clean sheets.

STREAKS - 3 without a draw at home.

AWAY TEAM - KUBUN

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWLD - only 2 wins away - against 7th and 3rd - both the other Moscow sides.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWLWWLWDD - 2 recent draws scuppered a long sequence without a draw. Most of the wins have come at home for Kubun.

GOAL TRENDS - 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded away on average

STREAKS - 2 away without a win. 2 draw sequence.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Kubun have beaten 2 other Moscow sides so far away - they like playing in the Captial. CSKA have a game in hand and can open a gap with a win, albeit early on in the season - indeed they could go top taking into account other results.

8pm - Inter v Palermo - 1.79 home - Italian Cup and a chance for Inter to salvage something from a dismal season.
8pm - Nancy v Lens -1.38 home

HEAD TO HEADS

07.08.2010D1RC Lens1-2AS Nancy
28.03.2010D1AS Nancy5-1RC Lens
21.11.2009D1RC Lens2-1AS Nancy
LEAGUE POSITION - 17th v 19th - Lens - are 2nd from bottom and are down. Nancy are 17th on 45 points ( 3rd bottom on 44 points) so quite clearly they have a chance to salvage their season and simply must win.

HOME TEAM - NANCY

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWLLLWDDLW - Nancy have been unable to score in 3 of last 4 matches at home - pretty poor form against bottom 3, 4-0 loss and 0-0 draw.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDLDLLDWW - beat 5th and 14th recently without conceding.

GOAL TRENDS - 39% over 2.5 goals at home.

STREAKS - 2 without a draw

AWAY TEAM - LENS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLDWLDDD - LAST 3 AWAY draws were 1-1's

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDDLDWDL

GOAL TRENDS - 6of last 7 under 2.5 goals.39% over 2.5 goals away, Conceded in 9 of last 10 matches.

STREAKS - 3 match away winning streak, 4 without a win away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - again this match seems predetermined and based on motivation of the home side - they win and they stay up - it's a simple equation, against an away side who are down.

315 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: 9/10 Eirland, 4/1 Dizzy Rascal, 7/1 King´sandqueen´s, 10/1 Katys Girl, 14/1 Minnie Maguire, 16/1Lord Rudi, 16/1 Ma Heffernans Bar, 25/1 The Grey Mouse, 25/1 Tom Googly, 33/1 Burnt Again, 50/1 Dr Lieven, 50/1Izearzabak, 50/1 Quws Quest, 50/1 Rathganley Maiden, 66/1 Highland Flash.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: King'sandqueens looks the main potential threat to EIRLAND (nap), assuming the Meade runner avoids the ill-fortune that befell him here last time. [Johnny Ward]

Would have won bar a fall last time out. Trust the horse to redeem himself under Paul Carberry?


515 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Court Lexi, 5/2 Devil´s Elbow, 6/1 Ballymoe Boy, 16/1 Current Example, 20/1 Star Of Boru, 20/1 The Brugh Boy, 25/1 Just Relax, 25/1 Kilcross Boy, 33/1 Glenann.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Surprising if a weaker bumper is run in Ireland this year. Court Lexi could win on the bridle but an each-way bet on BALLYMOE BOY, who looks booked to be placed at worst, appeals as a wiser option. [Johnny Ward]

Court Lexi is a newcomer but Nina Carberry/Gordon elliott - could be worth the gamble.


230 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Jaya Bella, 5/2 Border Station, 11/4 Tomstar, 12/1 Que Vivo, 16/1 Stormy Brook, 28/1Prince Of King, 33/1 Jimmy The Brave, 33/1 Tongue Twister.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An unappealing betting medium. Border Station is much respected after an improved second in a Towcester maiden hurdle last time but a chance is taken on TOMSTAR, who showed enough in junior bumpers in France last year to earn the vote, assuming his jumping passes muster switched to hurdles.[Mel Cullinan]

8 runners and 3 places and 3 under 14/1 here. Although " an unappealing betting medium", a classic place only race with 5 under 33/1


325 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Zoffany, 2/1 Imperial Rome, 5/1 Glor Na Mara, 8/1 Bewitched, 12/1 Duff, 12/1 Stunning View, 14/1 Finicius, 33/1 Six Of Hearts.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a quality Group 3 event and includes two previous winners in the field but ZOFFANY, a Group 1 winner among his five victories from seven starts last season, is taken to make a winning return with Tetrarch heroImperial Rome, the maiden Glor Na Mara and Bewitched next best. [Brian Fleming]

Zoffany really stands out for me, a horse I remember - a long absence to overcome in a high class race , this is another 8 runners 3 places race so may be worth chancing.


355 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Fame And Glory, 9/2 Rite Of Passage, 8/1 Nebula Storm, 12/1 Dirar, 20/1 Fictional Account, 25/1 Admiral Barry, 25/1 Vivacious Vivienne, 33/1 Top Spin, 33/1 Universal Truth.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FAME AND GLORY took a little time to hit top gear when he won on his return at Navan last month but with much improvement expected from his seasonal debut run he is difficult to oppose with Ascot Gold Cup heroRite Of Passage and staying-on Vintage Crop Stakes runner-up Nebula Storm two possible dangers. [Brian Fleming]

3 under 20/1 with FAme and Glory strong market leader here. Rite of passage looks the obvious each way alternative.


420 NOTTINGHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Paoletta, 5/1 Bashasha, 5/1 Electra Star, 14/1 Loving Thought, 20/1 Allumeuse, 20/1 Reillys Daughter, 20/1 Thistle Bird, 33/1 Totheendoftheearth, 100/1 Princesse Fleur, 100/1 Totally Trusted.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was lots to like about the debut effort of PAOLETTA (nap) at Windsor and she can go one better with that run behind her.[Paul Smith]

Price gapper increased in live market with absence of 3rd fav - always a risk backing a one time outer but the market is extremely confident.

210 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Fashionable Gal, 3/1 Set In Her Ways, 11/2 Sheila´s Castle, 7/1 Maid Of Silk, 12/1Hopeand, 16/1 Dancing Poppy, 40/1 Sor Brook, 66/1 Catawollow, 66/1 Mrs Puff, 200/1 Roxy Spirit.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FASHIONABLE GAL sets a fair standard on her Huntingdon win on Tuesday. Bumper winnerSet In Her Ways may be the one to fear most.[Paul Johnson]

4 under 20/1 here


240 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Points Of View, 5/1 Henry Hook, 5/1 Peaceful Means, 11/2 Icy Colt, 7/1 Sunsetten, 9/1Sahrati, 14/1 Worth A King´s, 16/1 All For Free, 100/1 Limestone Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POINTS OF VIEW looks the one to beat after a good chasing debut. Icy Colt may be next best, though Peaceful Means is a big player if Thursday's run is taken at face value.[Paul Johnson]

2nd last time on chase debut, jumped soundly and "will have little trouble going one better"

Jason Maguire onboard Point of View.


SHORTLIST

Fat Tony and pals seem to have decided on the results in Seria B, so it is perhaps worth swerving today.

8pm - Inter v Palermo - 1.79 home - a terrible season and something to salvage for Inter with this Cup match? The need for silverware might make Inter backable.

8pm - Nancy v Lens -1.38 home- quite simply, they win, they stay up and with home advantage, and with lens down, Nancy should pull it off.

Nerves will play a part though.

230 FONTWELL - although an " unappealing betting medium" this is a superb place only race with 8 runners, 3 places and 3 only under 14/1 Jaya Bella is 1.14 to place on Betfair , with Border Station next at 1.37.

325 LEOPARDSTOWN - I remember Zoffany, maybe an old one a dayer. 1.36 to place but fitness taken on trust after a 260 day absence. Ballydoyle horse so could not be in better hands.

355 LEOPARDSTOWN - Fame and glory should dominate this season as he has , 1.44 to win and 1.1 to place. Rite of Passage could be the value placer at 1.38 to place. A 346 day absence for Rite of Passage

210 UTTOXETER - 4 under 20/1 - default to the fav at 1.23 to place - clear round required though. Only one hurdle run ( a win) for Fashionable gal and preferred to a 50/1 bumper winner ( Set in her ways)









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