HEAD TO HEADS
| 08.11.2010 | D1 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 0-1 | CSKA Sofia | |
| 24.03.2010 | D1 | CSKA Sofia | 1-1 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | |
| 12.09.2009 | D1 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 0-0 | CSKA Sofia | |
| 18.04.2009 | D1 | CSKA Sofia | 4-1 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | |
| 04.03.2009 | Cup | CSKA Sofia | 1-1/p.3-5 | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
Where does the 1.25 quote come from from head to head evidence? - very tight matches.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 13th of 16th. Must win for CSKA to stay near to the top 2.
HOME TEAM - CSKA
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWW since the Winter BReak at home. And overall, including Cup and Friendlies since Feb 2011, 11 wins and a draw
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDWWWWWW - 6 wins on the trot . CSKA have scored 4,3,3,2,2 in their last 5 matches and and conceded 1,1,0,0,0 so in good shape.
GOAL TRENDS - difficult to decipher as not on www.soccerstats.com. 27 matches, only 4 losses and 13 clean sheets. 13 home matches, 9 wins, 2 losses and 8 clean sheets - concede only 0.54 on average in those home matches.
STREAKS - 7 match winning streak overall, 11 without defeat, 10 home games won in an row , 18 home matches without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - PIRIN
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLD since Winter Break. - recent 2-2 draw saw Pirin 2-0 up.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLWLWLDW - wins against 7th, 11th, 12th and 15th. It must be said the top 3 seem to be on a different level to the rest. 3rd place on 56 points, and 4th on 46 points.
GOAL TRENDS - 9 losses and 4 draws away. Average 0.46 goals per match away and concede 1.54 goals away.
STREAKS4 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the top 3 in this league have an "Old Firm" feel to them. They look to be at a different level to the rest. So the 1.27 currently seems justified. First thing to note is 2 draws and a 1-0 win for CSKA in head to heads point to a tough match in prospect which belies the odds, but then we note CSKA at home have won their last 10 matches in a row and are unbeaten in 18 matches. They have scored 4,3,3,2,2 in their last 5 matches and clean sheeted the last 3 matches.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 25.03.2011 | CF | Slavia Sofia | 2-1 | Levski Sofia | |
| 07.11.2010 | D1 | Slavia Sofia | 2-2 | Levski Sofia | |
| 20.03.2010 | D1 | Levski Sofia | 3-0 | Slavia Sofia | |
| 29.08.2009 | D1 | Slavia Sofia | 1-3 | Levski Sofia | |
| 23.05.2009 | D1 | Slavia Sofia | 0-1 | Levski Sofia |
Shock loss in a friendly and a recent 2-2 draw a sign of decline? The 3 goal scoreline of earlier are better examples of 1.17 shots. very illiquid market.
LEAGUE POSITION 2nd v 9th and 63 points play 32 points.
HOME TEAM - LEVSKI
RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWW - clean sheets in all those wins and loss was against 3rd placed CSKA Sofia - recently beat 1st, 5th and 8th, all above Slavia in the league.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWWWWWW - draw was a 0-0 v 10th away from home. Have scored 3,5,3,2,3 in last 5 matches
GOAL TRENDS - 11 wins, 2 losses at home and 8 clean sheets - again no soccerstats so bare stats. Average 2.31 scored at home and 0.62 conceded.
STREAKS - 6 wins in a row, 9 overall without losing, 5 home matches won on the trot, 9 at home without a draw,
AWAY TEAM - SLAVIA
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLDLLD - 3rd placed only beat them 1-0 after a 3rd minute goal signalling that Slavia may put up some resistance. But then recently drew 1-1 against bottom side after coming from behind.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWLLLLDL - 3 1-0 losses there does not make for a spanking today I would suggest.
GOAL TRENDS - average 1.46 scored and 1.46 conceded away from home.
STREAKS - 7 without a win, 6 without a win away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I cannot fathom why Levski are 1.16 against a side with a suspected reasonable defence ( 3 1-0 losses recently) . This could hint at laying Levski although almost inevitably, sub 1.2 's equal goals and a 2,3,4, goal home win.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 29.01.2011 | CF | Litex Lovech | 4-0 | PFK Montana | |
| 06.11.2010 | D1 | PFK Montana | 0-2 | Litex Lovech | |
| 20.03.2010 | D1 | PFK Montana | 0-0 | Litex Lovech | |
| 30.08.2009 | D1 | Litex Lovech | 3-0 | PFK Montana |
Pretty comprehensive at home, albeit the last match was a friendly during the Winter Break.
LEAGUE POSITION - top v 11th - 68 points v 29 points.
HOME TEAM LITEX
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWW - interestingly 4 4-0 wins which ties in nicely with the recent friendly scoreline. 0-0 was against 3rd place as there is a feeling that top 3 dominate this league much like top 2 in SPL.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWWWWLW - again dropped points to one of the top 3 - this time 2nd place - reinforces my argument re the dominance of the top 3 and an idea they tend to generally take points only off each other.
GOAL TRENDS - score an average 2.08 and concede 0.31 at home. Solid stuff. 9 clean sheets in 13 home matches. It would seem they score, they win.
STREAKS - 7 without a draw, 19 at home without a loss,
AWAY TEAM - MONTANA
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLWD - win and draw 1-0 and 0-0 against 5th and 8th
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWLDLLWDDD - again all points collected outside the top 3.
GOAL TRENDS - 0.46 scored on average away and 1.46 conceded.
STREAKS - 3 without a win , 4 without a loss,
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - illiquid betting market at present. Correct score of 4-0 keeps recurring. Do we dismiss the 3 draws for Montana as a sign of a shock result?
HEAD TO HEADS
| 22.08.2010 | D1 | FC Sochaux | 0-0 | Lille OSC | |
| 20.01.2010 | D1 | FC Sochaux | 2-1 | Lille OSC | |
| 12.09.2009 | D1 | Lille OSC | 1-0 | FC Sochaux | |
| 07.02.2009 | D1 | Lille OSC | 3-2 | FC Sochaux |
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 6th - 3 matches left in the league and this is the penultimate home match - 3 points and a game in hand over Marseille means a win will really keep the pressure on, and anything else with give Marseille a glimmer of hope. All in Lille's hands then - outside chance of a top 4 spot for Sochaux.
HOME TEAM - LILLE
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWDWWWDWWDW - only 1 loss at home all season was against 2nd place. 4 of the 5 home draws have been 1-1's - a cover bet perhaps? Have yet to play 5th and 6th at home yet - draws were against 3rd and 4th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDWWWWLDDWWW - recent losses have both been 1-0's and both away. 10 of 11 draws home and away have been 1-1's.
GOAL TRENDS - 53% over 2.5 goals at home. 35% clean sheets at home. Average 2.11 scored and 0.88 conceded. Have scored in last 16 home matches ( 16 of 17) - 2 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals -have kept clean sheets in 2 of the last 3 matches. Have only failed to score in 4 all season, 3 of those away. Score first in 71% of matches, so the 1-1 draws may indicate vulnerability once scoring.
STREAKS - - 12 at home without defeat. 3 match current winning streak
AWAY TEAM - SOCHAUX
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLWWLDDW - have lost 7 of the 8 matches played against top 10 teams -the exception a 1-1 draw. Against the top 5 away, the scoreline is an eery 2-1. All wins therefore come away from top 10. 10 losses away though is ominous.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWLLWDWDWWW - great recent streak includes 2 1-1 away scorelines against 7th and 12th - that was the sole draw against top 10 away.
GOAL TRENDS - 53% over 2.5 goals away from home. Last 2 home matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in last 4 matches. have scored in last 7 matches.
STREAKS - 3 away without defeat, 7 overall. Have not conceded in last 3matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is not strictly a must win for Lille but is a would love to win to lengthen the distance between them and Marseille as there are 3 games for Lille left to play ( 2 for Marseille). No defeat in 12 at home for Lille. Drew against 3rd and 4th so maybe a 1-1 cover could be a good bet today given that Souchaux lost 2-1 to 2nd,3rd,4th,5th? That is where I would look today -to the 1-1 scoreline to perhaps trade. Lille score first in 74% of their matches and the opposition score first in 50% or thereabouts of Souchaux's matches.
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Glee, 5/2 Falls Of Lora, 8/1 Lolita Lebron, 12/1 Iceni Girl, 14/1 Marygold, 25/1 Single Girl, 33/1 Thefillyfromsutton.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Falls Of Lora is an interesting Godolphin newcomer but her pedigree suggests she will come into her own over further later on and she could have difficulty living with the speedy GLEE whose stable has dominated this race in recent years.[Frank Carter]
Huge shortening in price for Glee into 1/3 with 4 horses debutants in this maiden - right connections though in Hannon/Hughes.
225 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Filun, 11/4 Kayaan, 7/2 Lady Lam, 12/1 Dawson Creek, 20/1 Ajara Boy, 20/1 The Chester Giant.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FILUN didn't come off the bridle when winning at Brighton. He wouldn't be guaranteed to knuckle down if more assistance from the saddle is required but this looks an even weaker race and he's taken to see off Kayaan andFilun, with the other three rated below 45 and offering limited appeal.[Steven Boow]
Filun appears in what looks a 3 horse race for 2 places - good probability chance if the horses 14/1 or bigger run as per their prices.
525 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Odin´s Raven, 6/1 Ancient Times, 9/1 Ursus, 14/1 Dirleton, 16/1 It´s A Mans World, 20/1Twisted, 50/1 Golden Emperor, 66/1 Solway Beyond, 100/1 Thistledown Rose.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Difficult to look beyond ODIN'S RAVEN, whose form sets him apart from his rivals.[Jonathan Neesom]
3 under 16/1 and an obvious favourite but a chance for an each way value alternative in the 2 others under 16/1
600 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Nafaath, 13/8 Majestic Mayhem, 4/1 Pontop, 25/1 Udaya Klum, 40/1 Just Posh, 50/1Bayfirth, 100/1 Morecambe Bay, 100/1 Princess Cherry.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nafaath should win if cheekpieces have the desired effect but MAJESTIC MAYHEM is a less complicated individual who is likely to put up a bold bid on his chasing debut.[Jonathan Neesom]
Nafaath's trainer is 0 from 57 when applying cheekpieces ( care of the Statman who writes for What Really Wins Money) so make of that what you will. Perhaps leaves the door open for Majestic Mayhem in an 8 runner race for 3 places with 3 under 25/1 - a beginners chase and now Udaya Klum could be a massive market mover ( 25/1betting forecast and 7/1 live betting market) making this now a seemingly 4 horse race for 3 places, albeit a beginners chase where they need to complete of course.
650 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 King´s Legacy, 5/2 Raslan, 3/1 Horsford, 50/1 Grand Fella.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KING'S LEGACY has the best recent hurdling form on offer and looks capable of further progress now chasing. As such, he is the obvious choice, with Horsford perhaps capable of seeing off stablemate Raslan for minor honours.[Stuart Redding]
You know what you get with beginners chases - the clue is in the title so any falls and mistakes should not be a surprise but this is a great probability race if looked at from a betting perspective.
SHORTLIST
4pm - CSKA Sofia v Pirin Blagoevg - 1.25 home - if my contention that the Bulgarian league is like the SPL, 3 teams dominate - CSKA, Lovech and Levski, then they should be backed at home. Unbeaten in 18 at home, and won last 10 at home., 3,2,2 scored in last 3 and all clean sheets. This could be a match where we have to decide for recent form over historical head to heads.
4pm - Levski Sofia v Slavia Sofia - 1.16 home - clean sheets in last 5 - all wins - , and another of the triumvirate at the top playing at home. Levski scored 3,3,2 in last 3 league meetings, with the last match a 2-2 draw. 6 wins in a row, 5 wins in a row at home. 3 1-0 losses include against one of the top 3 could hint at a tight match.
4pm - Litex Lovech v Montana - 1.09 home - 4 4-0s in their last 4 matches and beat Montana - guess what? - yes 4-0 in last head to head. The scoreline is in line with the odds of 1.1 and is perhaps worth backing in isolation - a pity the market is so illiquid.
6pm - Lille v Sochaux - 1.4 home - back 1-1 at 11.5 initially as a trader.Sochaux have lost 2-1 against all of the top 4 and Lille have only lost 1 all season but have drawn 1-1 in 10 of their 12 draws this season.
745pm - Porto v Braga - 1.47 home - a wonderful season for Porto and no surprise to see the price so short, but this is a one off match and these may not go with any form from the Pork and Cheese league.
200 GOODWOOD - Glee for Hannon/Hughes is 1.45 to win and around 1.13 to place. Slight risks as it is a one time outer in a maiden with 4 debutants.
225 LINGFIELD - 3 under 20/1 and filun at evens must have a chance of placing? A surprising 1.3 to place here ( albeit 2 places) in what has the appearance of a 3 horse race.
525 SEDGEFIELD - Odin's Raven 1.08 to place and 1.32 to win - a neck 2nd last time out and an obvious chance.
600 SEDGEFIELD - perhaps typical of today - looks good on paper but then some niggle like this is a beginners chase and there is a huge market mover who might knock one of the fancies out of the 3 places on offer.
650 SEDGEFIELD - another great race - a 3 horse race for 2 places but a beginners chase and a market which is very tight which means it is pure probability - pick one of the 3, hope he completes and finishes in the first 2 for place only.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
A very difficult day where we have great probability races but in beginners chases, some great bets in the football, BUT in the Bulgarian League which I know little about and is not on www.soccerstats.com, and a maiden race.
What stands out for me I think is getting some kind of a bet on Porto this evening. They have served me so well this season and their consistency is a shining light. 1.17 under 4.5 goals might have some leverage as this is a major European Final. Chance Porto at 1.47 to get at least a goal ?
4pm - Litex Lovech v Montana - 1.09 home - if 1.1 is still available, then in the context of 4 4-0 wins in their last 5 and a 4-0 recent win over Montana in head to heads, it could be worth taking in a tough day.
225 LINGFIELD - a low grade handicap another niggle in a niggly day should see 3 horses dominate ( the 3 under 16/1 ) and at a touch of odds on, Filun is an interesting 1.3 to place ( although I am suspicious of such a relatively big place only price, I acknowledge there is only 2 places)
525 SEDGEFIELD - Perhaps Odin's Raven to place at 1.08 added to Litex Lovech will produce a reasonable return for the day of 1.18 to keep the averages up ( and yes this is not really 1 a day is it!)
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