Thursday, 5 May 2011

5/5

Quevega has course experience, Kauto did not and Quevega is a course and distance winner who should finish in the first 3 with a clear round of jumping.
The other horse of interest for me is Captain bertie in the first at Chester.

*****ONE A DAY 530 PUNCHESTOWN - QUEVEGA TO PLACE ONLY *****



Nerves overcame form it would seem again as Celtic, like Cardiff, froze in the headlights. A match not helped by an early Celtic own goal which ensured they did not lead at any stage.

In hindsight a goals bet would have been successful, and safer, with both CArdiff and Celtic and is something to bear in mind at this crucial part of the year.

145 CHESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Captain Bertie, 5/1 Crown Counsel, 13/2 Belle Royale, 15/2 First Class Favour, 11/1Weapon Of Choice, 12/1 Fred Willetts, 14/1 Shafgaan, 16/1 Baharat, 20/1 Kingscroft.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A standout horse in CAPTAIN BERTIE (nap), a C&D maiden winner last September who is officially 8lb well in after a highly promising clear second on his handicap debut at Sandown recently. He should be very hard to beat, with Crown Counsel taken to chase him home. [Mel Cullinan]

"Very hard to beat" and a price gapper. 8/11 - - - - 11/2 price gap. An 11 day course and distance winner, this seems set up for him,


440 NEWTON ABBOTT

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Free To Air, 7/1 Wallace Monument, 10/1 Diamanpeg, 16/1 Jam Tomorrow, 16/1 Macmar, 16/1 Monty´s Revenge, 16/1 William Percival, 20/1 Fran´s Folly, 20/1 That´s For Sure, 25/1 Brilliant, 25/1 Killing Me Softly, 33/1 Kiristani, 50/1 Classic Bavard, 50/1 Participation, 50/1 Southway Star.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The return to hurdles looks the right move for FREE TO AIR (nap) and he looks the one to beat under a penalty. Wallace Monument looks likely to provide the most resistance.[Emily Weber]

A huge price gapper here


450 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Garde Champetre, 13/2 Outlaw Pete, 8/1 Let The Show Begin, 12/1 Another Jewel, 12/1Jacks Island, 16/1 Heads Onthe Ground, 20/1 Lucky Luk, 33/1 Heroes Square, 50/1 Innbrodericksbar, 50/1 The Speedy Man.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This test of stamina and versatility could never be regarded as easy, but GARDE CHAMPETREstands head and shoulders over these rivals. Let The Show Begin was running well here on Tuesday until his untimely exit, and is possible forecast material. [Alan Sweetman]

garde Champetre is the Bolger runner who should win this easily. Infact, the horse could take the jockey round, so familiar is he with this cross country venue.

530 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Quevega, 4/1 Mourad, 9/1 Voler La Vedette, 11/1 Won In The Dark, 12/1 Carlito Brigante, 14/1 Rigour Back Bob, 16/1 Luska Lad, 20/1 Mikael D´haguenet, 33/1 Oscar Dan Dan, 40/1 Ringaroses.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most would love to see the giant that is Big Buck's here but at least his absence gives the rest a chance. QUEVEGA was far too good for Mourad in this 12 months ago and, while he seems to have improved since, it remains hard to envisage the form being reversed, irrespective of whether the rain arrives or not. That looks the logical 1-2, though Rigour Back Bob is arguably the value without the favourite at the prices. [Johnny Ward]

Kauto and Nicanor not placing yesterday reminds us these are high quality jumps events. Quevega represents the master Mullins and has Ruby booked and is a solid favourite.,

610 WINCANTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Escudero, 7/2 Polmar, 4/1 Before The War, 20/1 Tork To Me, 50/1 Cladding, 50/1 Poetic Beat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The ground is a complete unknown with ESCUDERO but Paul Nicholls knew the score at declaration time so he's likely to be very hard to beat. Polmar, decent on his day for Willie Mullins, is feared most.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Firm ground an unknown here for Escudero but he's a 4/7 - - - - 9/2 price gapper here.

720 WINCANTON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/10 Looks Like Slim, 10/1 Sponge, 14/1 Love Love Me Do, 25/1 Jasper Cliff.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks merely a case of staying upright for LOOKS LIKE SLIM, for whom Ben de Haan could barely have found a weaker race had he scoured the earth.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

MORE INFO:VERDICTCOMMENTSMY NOTESSTATSPOSTDATAORRPRTOPSPEEDSELECTIONSPAST WINNERSBETTING

Quite obvious and the rewards will come if you can pick 2nd place.

550 WETHERBY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Abergavenny, 100/30 Enjoy Your Life, 10/1 Evans Wood, 10/1 Penton Hook, 14/1 Jamaddji, 33/1 Oskari.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Enjoy Your Life should be good enough to make a race of it but useful Flat-racerABERGAVENNY has been found a good opportunity to win again. [Chris Wilson]

Now 1/4 and so early on so obviously very well thought of for this evening.

Nothing appeals at all from the football today.

SHORTLIST

145 CHESTER - Captain Bertie is 1.19 to place and a significant price gapper.

440 NEWTON ABBOTT - a clear round required as ever but 4 places on offer and another huge price gap for Free to Air. Illiquid place market at present.

450 PUNCHESTOWN - 1.47 to win and 1.09 to place this Garde Champetre for Enda Bolger.

530 PUNCHESTOWN - Quevega is 1.2 to place and really should have too much in this race.


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