14/5

*****ONE A DAY - 230pm - bayern Munich v Stuttgart - Back Bayern Munich in the match odds at 1.30***** They scored 11 in their last 2 meetings with Stuttgart away from home. Hope they give their fans something to remember for the last match of the season and last home match.



Danziger placed 3rd at a poor 1.1 SP but keeps the run going.


230pm - B Munich v Stuttgart - 1.3 home

HEAD TO HEADS

22.12.2010	Cup	VfB Stuttgart	3-6	Bayern München
19.12.2010	D1	VfB Stuttgart	3-5	Bayern München
27.03.2010	D1	Bayern München	1-2	VfB Stuttgart
31.10.2009	D1	VfB Stuttgart	0-0	Bayern München
23.05.2009	D1	Bayern München	2-1	VfB Stuttgart
27.01.2009	Cup	VfB Stuttgart	1-5	Bayern München

Goals anyone? Only one match without goals . Last 2 matches have seen 8 and 9 in total. Interestingly at bayern 1-2 and 2-1 - tight enough.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 11th - a win for Stuttgart can take then forward to 7th ( based on othe results) 3rd placed Bayern have put in a great performance in the close season , even with the League title not in grasp. A win takes them 2nd ( if Leverkusen lose) This is the last match of the season, and the last home match and bound to be packed to the rafters. Bayern must win therefore and hope Leverkusen lose to get 2nd . Bayern will take 2nd if Leverkusen lose on superior goal difference.

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLWWWW - the loss was the season defining defeat by B. Dortmund which ended Bayern's hopes. 2 0-0's against 12th and 13th in the league ( playing 11th today) - a coincidence? Only 2 losses have come against top 5 sides.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLLWWWDWDWW - last 3 matches with dropped points came away from home.

GOAL TRENDS - 81% over 2.5 goals at home.50% clean sheets at home. 3,4,3,4,3,5,4,1,6,1,5,4 scored in last few home matches.
5,1,4,8, scored in last 4 matches.
3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 5 matches. Have scored in all of last 18 matches. Have only conceded 12 in the first half all season. Scored a massive 24 goals in the last quarter of an hour. Bayern lead at half time in 50% of matches.

STREAKS - 4 match home winning streak - 13 at home without a draw - 8 overall without defeat.

AWAY TEAM -STUTTGART

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDWLWWDWW - have lost 6 and drawn 1-1 v Dortmund in all away against top 8 sides. Conceding 2 minimum in those matches .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWWWDDLWWWW - wins against 4th and 7th recently have been at home, but I remind you of the emphatic away record against top 8.

GOAL TRENDS - 69% over 2.5 goals. Last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 7 of last 8 matches. Have scored in all last 14 matches. Every single Stuttgart away match this season is over 1.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in only one match away this season.have scored most goals in the last half hour of matches.

STREAKS - 5 away without defeat.5 overall without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - last match at home for bayern and 2nd to play for should put the tie firmly in their favour. 8 wins and a solitary loss was against top of the table. Stuttgart's record against top 8 away is emphatic. Bar a draw with Dortmund, they have conceded 4,2,2,2,4,2 in the remaining losses. An amazing stat - all of Stuttgart's away matches have been over 1.5 goals. 1.1 over 1.5 goals - the market has spotted it as well!! OVer 2.5 goals must have a tradable chance given Bayern's recent goalscoring exploits -1.3

230pm - Mainz v St Pauli - 1.41 home

HEAD TO HEADS

18.12.2010	D1	St. Pauli	2-4	Mainz
15.07.2009	CF	Mainz	1-1	St. Pauli
10.05.2009	D2	St. Pauli	2-0	Mainz

goal laden top flight meeting - more of the same today please

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 18th - St Pauli are down after a stubborn beginning to 2011. A win could take Mainz 4th

RECENT HOME FORM -WLLDLLDWW - not the kind of home form which immediately points to a 1.41 quote. Have lost 1-0 v 14th and 15th and won 1-0 and 3-0 against 16th and 17th

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWLDDLWDWW - great recent form 3 wins in 4 included, coincidentally, those wins against 2nd and 3rd bottom ( playing bottom today)

GOAL TRENDS - 31% over 2.5 goals - 6 of last 8 matches under 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 4 matches

STREAKS - 3 at home without defeat

AWAY TEAM - ST PAULI

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDWLLLLDL - have conceded 2 or more in last 6 away matches

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLLLLDLLL - pretty convincingly worth opposing or will they rise to the occasion of last match of the season and let the shackles loose now fate is known?

GOAL TRENDS - have conceded 2 or more in 10 of last 11 matches home and away.62% over 2.5 goals away from home. 7 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals and 13 of last 18 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 11 matches. Opponent scores first in 63% of matches. Have conceded a whopping 20 goals in last half hour.

STREAKS - 6 away without a win, 11 in total.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - do Mainz have anything to play for? Conflicting goals stats with St Pauli consistently conceding 2 but Mainz 31% over 2.5 goals but they have scored 3 in their last 2 matches. St Pauli are opposable unless they produce a shock performance in keeping with their last match in the top flight.

5pm - Lazio v Genoa - 1.41 home

HEAD TO HEADS

06.01.2011 D1 Genoa CFC 0-0 Lazio Roma 25.04.2010 D1 Genoa CFC 1-2 Lazio Roma 13.12.2009 D1 Lazio Roma 1-0 Genoa CFC 18.04.2009 D1 Genoa CFC 0-1 Lazio Roma

Lazio coming out on top in head to heads, albeit tight. 4th place a real possibility for Lazio against a side with nothing to play for.

LEAGUE POSITION 5th v 10th

LAZIO RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWDWWWWL - loss was a 1-0 87th minute defeat to Juve. Only lost 3 at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWLWLWWLLL - no draw in 12.

GOAL TRENDS - 28% over 2.5 goals at home! A typically Italian scoreline in prospect? But 4 of last 6 have been over 2.5 goals. The reason for the low % is because Lazio have only conceded 13 goals at home! The opponent leads at half time in only 11.1% of matches.

STREAKS - 5 at home without a draw, 12 overall

AWAY TEAM - GENOA

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDWLLDLL - against the top 9 away, Genoa have lost 7 and beaten Udinese 1-0. General trend towards defeat of course. 4 of those matches were 1-0's - Genoa have only won 4 away from home.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLLWDLLWWLW - last 5 wins all at home .

GOAL TRENDS - 4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 6 of the last 7 matches. 28% over 2.5 goals - tight match in prospect but recent scorelines conflict

STREAKS - 5 away without a win, 6 overall without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - faith in the notion that Lazio have a lot to play for , Genoa have nothing to play for - no draw in 12 for Lazio and 6 for Genoa - lay the draw? Under 2.5 goals resounds here - 28% with both sides home and away. Back under 2.5 goals and a 0-0 correct score trade? 1.21 under 4.5 goals

815pm - Benfica v Leiria - 1.26 home - the perennial dead rubber with benfica safe in 2nd and Leiria unlikely to benefit from anything.

225 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Dunowen Point, 5/2 Dineur, 5/1 Character Actor, 5/1 Tarn Hows, 20/1 Lady Vera, 20/1 Night Rose, 25/1 Red Whisper, 33/1 Flowerdew, 33/1 Notonnelly, 100/1 Colonial Harry, 100/1 Harrys Yer Man.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUNOWEN POINT and Dineur have been shaping like surefire future winners and narrow preference is for the McCain horse, with the yard still banging in the winners all over the shop.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4 under 25/1 makes this a very interesting race - 121 days off v 62 days off. Will these 2 dominate despite the absences? A clear round should ensure they place surely in a race where all bar 4 are 25/1

850 KILBEGGAN

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cebuano, 7/2 Book´em Danno, 6/1 Fairview Star, 10/1 Peak Oil, 12/1 Waterloo Sunrise, 14/1 Take The Blame, 16/1 Daly Dilemma, 20/1 Bradys Cottage, 25/1 Craigs Dream, 25/1 Osographic, 25/1 Ronans Hill, 33/1 Amber Jess, 33/1 Ellikath, 33/1 Good Man Buster, 50/1 Atha Dara Abu, 50/1 Phelia.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is very hard to ignore the claims of CEBUANO despite his habit of finding one too good. Market support for Book'Em Danno would be significant given that his trainer should have a good idea of Cebuano's standard of form, and the Eoin Griffin-trained newcomer Fairview Star is another to consider. [Alan Sweetman]

Now 10/11 - is this Cebuano's night to shine?

310 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dominant, 9/2 Labarinto, 6/1 Al Kazeem, 7/1 Fulgur, 7/1 General Synod, 14/1 Rastaban, 20/1 Norse Blues, 20/1 State Opera.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is no shortage of promise in this field - for one indication, all of the top six except State Opera have an entry in the King Edward VII - but the most persuasive piece of racecourse evidence was DOMINANT's luckless second at Sandown. Imposing Guineas also-ran Loving Spirit is feared most but most of them obviously need respect.[Richard Austen]

7/4 - - - -4/1 price gapper - 8 runners and 3 places and 3 of the horses are 20/1 or bigger

345 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Canford Cliffs, 7/2 Dick Turpin, 7/1 Twice Over, 14/1 Cityscape, 20/1 Premio Loco, 20/1 Red Jazz, 20/1 Worthadd, 40/1 Balthazaar´s Gift, 40/1 Shakespearean, 50/1 Beacon Lodge.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is no doubt that Canford Cliffs is the one to beat if at his very best but he did take a couple of runs to reach his peak last season, so at very short odds it can pay to look beyond him and seek better value elsewhere. TWICE OVER appeals most, as a repeat of his top-class 1m2f form would give him leading prospects in a race in which he was a close third on his last run at 1m back in 2009. He has plenty of pace and, at the odds, it is worth chancing that he copes with this trip now. He can see off Canford Cliffs' stablemate and old rival Dick Turpin. At bigger odds, Worthadd isn't discounted either. [Mel Cullinan]

A superb race in prospect. 3 under 14/1 here and Canford Cliffs is 4/5 with Dick Turpin 3/1 - Dick is a recent runner and Canford has a 290 day absence to overcome.

240 THIRSK

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Tricksofthetrade, 2/1 Ardlui, 7/2 Body Language, 9/2 Unex Picasso, 16/1 Harvey´s Hope, 20/1 Rio´s Rosanna, 33/1 The Snorer, 66/1 Lure Of The Night, 66/1 Perfect Deal, 66/1 Rosie Raymond, 66/1 Serenader, 100/1 Into Mac, 100/1 Poosie Nansie.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ardlui, Body Language and Unex Picasso have the best Flat form on offer and look capable of improvement but dual bumper winner TRICKSOFTHETRADE could be well up to the task and his credentials are strengthened by the fact his trainer has won this race twice with decent bumper horses in recent years.[Steven Boow]

4 under 16/1 and the market speaks for Ardlui currently as favourite.

545 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Eleazar, 15/8 Dante´s Storm, 12/1 Oopsmylord, 12/1 Silly Wupple, 20/1 Pastek.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Eleazar returned from a significant absence with a wide-margin success at Fakenham and looks a promising sort for this sphere but slight preference is for DANTE'S STORM who has been beaten just twice in 11 career starts and was far from disgraced in the big hunter chase at Cheltenham last time.[Steven Boow]

2 under 14/1 and clear rounds see them dominate this hunters chase.

SHORTLIST

230pm - B Munich v Stuttgart - 1.3 home - out with a bang in the last home match of the season and still 2nd place to play for. Over 1.5 goals a real goer but 1.1 is a little stingy. 1.3 over 2.5 goals is tradeable. bayern to bow out with a win infront of home fans?

5pm - Lazio v Genoa - 1.41 home - 28% home and away over 2.5 goals signals a tight match. Under 4.5 goals is 1.21 which is very tempting with that sort of goals percentage, but last match of the season could produce the unexpected.

225 BANGOR - 4 under 25/1 Dineur and Dunowen Point cannot be split at the head of the market.

310 NEWBURY - 8 runners, 3 places and 3 horses at 20/1 or bigger should make it a 5 horse race for 3 places and Dominant is 7/4 with next best 7/2 - 1.36 to place

345 NEWBURY - dominated by the 3 under 16/1 - 1.19 Canford Cliffs and 1.48 Dick Turpin to place.


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

230pm - B Munich v Stuttgart - 1.3 home - surely Bayern can sign off with a win at home and do their part in trying to get 2nd place

310 NEWBURY - I like the make up of this race with 8 runners and 3 places being ideal for place only betting and 3 horses at 20/1 or bigger which should make this a 5 runner race for 3 places -2nd when hampered 2 out , Dominant would have won. Take the hint, hope he is at the business end and back him to place?

345 NEWBURY - Canford Cliffs comes with some reputation - faith in that reputation despite a 290 day absence. Dick Turpin the saver? 3 under 16/1 but as you can appreciate this really is a high class race.

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