Friday 27 May 2011

27/5

*****ONE A DAY - 730pm - LE MANS v NANTES - back Le Mans in the match odds at 1.37 - I hope the clean sheets continue as does the recent good home form ( 3-0 and 4-0 recently) in a match where we have a must win against a "season over"



S.A.F won very well and there was an opportunity to back them again at a ridiculously big 1.5 as Woodlands Wellington scored first.


4pm -

HEAD TO HEADS

27.11.2010D1PFK Montana0-3Levski Sofia
04.09.2010CFLevski Sofia3-1PFK Montana
09.05.2010D1PFK Montana0-2Levski Sofia
28.11.2009D1Levski Sofia3-1PFK Montana
14.11.2009CFLevski Sofia3-1PFK Montana

Levski have scored 3 in 4 of last 5 head to heads and that ties in with the 1.14 quote.

No indepth research here as this looks straightforward ( famous last words.) Levski have won their last 8 overall scoring 1,3,5,3,2,3,3,3, and notice the scoreline that appears most in those head to heads?

Against 1st and 3rd, Montana recently conceded 4 goals so a 3-0, 3-1, 4-0 correct score may have legs. Slight question re motivation for Levski who are 5 points behind top and 11 ahead of 3rd and this seems to be the last match of the season

5pm - Ekranas v Atlantas Klaipeda - 1.11 home - Lithuanaian A league so just a glance over this match - 3-0 and 4-0 to Ekranas last 2 head to heads and Atlantas have recently conceded 4,5,8,3,2,0 in their last 6 matches. GOals anyone?

730pm - Le Mans v Nantes - 1.37 home

HEAD TO HEADS

09.08.2010D2FC Nantes0-2Le Mans FC
31.01.2009D1Le Mans UC 720-2FC Nantes

Only 2 recent head to heads and they are mixed.

LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 10th and Le Mans are the team who will break into the top 3 with a win and Ajaccio losing or drawing.

HOME TEAM - Le Mans

RECENT HOME FORM - LWLWWDDDWDWW - solid recent home form at the right time of the season.

Have recently beaten 9th placed 3-0 ( and Nantes are 10th)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDDDWDLWWWL - 2 of the wins recently at home were 3-0 and 4-0 wins.

GOAL TRENDS - 33% over 2.5 goals at home is some stat. But then 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals overall. Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their last 10 matches.

STREAKS - 2 match winning streak at home. 9 without defeat at home.Have not conceded in last 5 matches.

AWAY TEAM - NANTES

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLLLDDLL - perfect time for Le Mans to meet Nantes .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLLDDDWLWLW - good recent form though for Nantes

GOAL TRENDS - 44% over 2.5 goals away -

STREAKS - no win in 8 away - no draw in 5 overall

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - another must win v season over. Le Mans recent ability to keep a clean sheet and Nantes' shocking recent away form points to a Le Mans win. tough to predict a score though as 3-0 and 4-0 last 2 home matches but a 33% over 2.5 goals stat at home for Le Mans. A win to nil an option , and a hope these must wins do win.
730pm - Nimes v Ajaccio - 1.3 away

HEAD TO HEADS

06.08.2010D2AC Ajaccio1-0Nîmes Olympique
26.03.2010D2Nîmes Olympique2-0AC Ajaccio
27.10.2009D2AC Ajaccio2-0Nîmes Olympique
07.03.2009D2AC Ajaccio2-1Nîmes Olympique

the sole corresponding fixture in head to heads saw Nimes win 2-0 but circumstances are likely to be different today -


LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd from bottom v 3rd - Nimes will not change their fortunes with a win today. Ajaccio can. Currently on 61 points, with top on 64 points, a win will at least ensure Ajaccio are in with a chance of the title come the season end. But Evian are on 64 points and have vastly superior goal difference so I am not sure of the motivation in that regard. BUT, 4th placed are only 2 points behind Ajaccio and it could be that the top 3 go up so therein lies the real motivation.

HOME TEAM - NIMES

RECENT HOME FORM - WWLLLWDDDL - have lost 1-3, to top, 0-2 to 2nd and 1-2 to 4th placed at home - wins against 5th and 6th back in September 2010 and not really representative of performance against top sides.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDWLDLDWDLLL - only 2 wins recently against 15th and 16th.

GOAL TRENDS - 39% over 2.5 goals at home.But last 6 league matches all over 2.5 goals.Have conceded in 17 of last 18 matches. Have only scored 5 goals in the first half hour all season.

STREAKS - 4 at home without a win

AWAY TEAM - AJACCIO

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDWLDDWD - not too good away.Have only won 3 away matches all season, and 2 of them were 1-0's. Against bottom 3, it's a 1-0 win and a 1-1 draw away.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWDDWDDWWLW - 3 wins in last 4 just in time for the title plunge. 5 of the last 7 wins though have been only 1-0.

GOAL TRENDS - 44% over 2.5 goals away.6 of last 7 matches under 2.5 goals.Have kept a clean sheet in 4 of last 5 matches so the inference is, with all those 1-0's that Ajaccio score, they win!

STREAKS - no draw in 4.

- CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - quite simply a case of must win v season over. Recent form does not make Ajaccio 1.3 , their need to have to win does. Faith therefore in that need above anything the research tells us. Goals stats hint at unders but Nimes have had a recent spurt of consecutive over 2.5 goals. I would plump for a 1-0 Ajaccio scoreline and maybe a back of 0-0 initially to trade as the goal might take a while to come,


230 BRIGHTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Pickled Pelican, 3/1 Dana´s Present, 7/2 Night Angel, 8/1 Bling King, 10/1 Pius Parker, 16/1Manomine, 16/1 Yammos, 66/1 Samasana.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few to consider but Bling King and Pius Parker need to put a moderate run behind them,Dana's Present's inexperience could play against him and the blinkers need to work as well again for Night Angel as they did last time. In the circumstances, PICKLED PELICAN, who should improve for his debut run, is likely to be the one to beat.[Frank Carter]

2 year olds and Brighton do not normally mix. 8 runners down to 7 and 3 only under 16/1 makes this an interesting probability race.

600 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 9/10 Coscorrig, 3/1 Aura About You, 11/2 Back Of The Pack, 8/1 Royal Choice, 14/1 Pretty Happy, 25/1 Carutomark, 50/1 Conclave, 66/1 Anshan Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dessie Hughes' scintillating form makes COSCORRIG (nap) even harder to oppose. The main danger is potential fatigue after some tough races but she should again beat Aura About You, who is far from certain to like quick ground. [Johnny Ward]

5 under 50/1 and 3 places still

735 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mossey Joe, 9/2 Sarteano, 5/1 Politeo, 7/1 The Last Derby, 12/1 Sizing America, 20/1Browns Baily, 33/1 Piano Star, 33/1 Turtle Gale, 50/1 Kilcrea Castle.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOSSEY JOE has to give at least 10lb to the remainder but he should win bar a fall before earning his summer break. He can take a chance at some of his obstacles and Sarteano might be able to pounce if the favourite disappoints. [Johnny Ward]

5 under 20/1 here for the 3 places? We also have a price gapper.

330 NEWMARKET

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Maqaraat, 5/1 Hunter´s Light, 8/1 Press Office, 14/1 Warneford, 16/1 Semmsu, 20/1 Quails Hollow, 33/1 Green Future, 33/1 Planetoid, 33/1 Sandbanks Sizzler, 66/1 Akrias, 66/1 Hursley Hope, 100/1 Kambis, 100/1 Suzi´s A Class Act.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An obvious opportunity for Dee Stakes runner-up MAQARAAT to get off the mark. The Godolphin pair Hunter's Light and Press Office look the most interesting of the opposition.[Adrian Cook]

Price gapper here now 1/4 and one of 3 under 20/1


515 NEWMARKET

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Above All, 2/1 Jibaal, 4/1 Ice Cold Bex, 14/1 Battle Of Britain.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Following his creditable third over this trip in an Ascot handicap on his return, ABOVE ALL looks the one to beat. Jibaal can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]

2 under 10/1 here and 2 places

905 PONTEFRACT

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Redvers, 3/1 Alive And Kicking, 6/1 Desert Chieftain, 6/1 Magic Rhythm, 10/1 Muroona, 25/1Misshollygolightly, 50/1 See Vermont, 50/1 Yougoigo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Redvers had ALIVE AND KICKING well behind him here last month but he had the benefit of experience on that occasion and James Bethell's colt has since gone on to finish a good third at Ripon. There shouldn't be much between them this time and the latter could be worth backing to reverse the form.[Paul Smith]

8 runners and 3 places makes this of interest despite being a maiden.

5 under 40/1 with Redvers odds on at present.

615 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Takeroc, 3/1 I Have Dreamed, 10/1 High Skies, 14/1 Overlut, 16/1 Captain Marlon, 16/1Gaelic Flight, 16/1 Lord Ryeford, 16/1 Mccauley, 16/1 Ryeman, 25/1 Cheeky Lad, 33/1 Benefit Game, 100/1 Wizard Roc.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: I Have Dreamed will go close if he puts his latest run behind him but TAKEROC looks the one to beat. He has been outstayed over longer trips when runner-up on his last two starts but today's distance looks ideal.[Chris Wilson]

6/4 - - - 5/1 currently and a Nicholls horse so worthy of some interest.

855 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Speedy Directa, 7/1 Always Cruising, 7/1 Walls Way, 8/1 Carhue Princess, 9/1 Commit To Memory, 10/1 Carbon Print, 14/1 Aughcarra, 14/1 Ruby Valentine, 14/1 Termon Boy, 16/1 Legends Lass, 20/1 Satindra, 66/1Carlton Mac.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Speedy Directa has a good opportunity to follow up his recent Towcester win but may decline it and is opposed with CARHUE PRINCESS who travelled well before getting outpaced over 2m last time and is open to improvement over this trip.[Chris Wilson]

Commit to memory is the big mover into 2nd favouratism and 4/1

SHORTLIST

4pm - Levski Sofia v Montana - 1.14 home - 3 or 4 goals should be within Levski's reaches today if they have the requisite motivation as they gain and lose nothing with today's result in what looks like the last match of the season.

730pm - Le Mans v Nantes - 1.37 home - must win v season over enough to back Le mans? Solid enough recently and scored 7 without conceding in last 2 home matches. Have not conceded in 5 on the trot now, so a case of Le Mans score and Le Mans win?


730pm - Nimes v Ajaccio - 1.3 away - Ajaccio must win to keep Le Mans from leaping into the top 3 -as I said earlier, not immediately 1.3 shots judging by form, but this is 2nd bottom and down v a team who can go joint top with a win as things currently stand and ensure a top 3 spot

600 CORK - 7 runners and 3 places makes Coscorrig and Aura about you of interest

330 NEWMARKET - Maqaraat is 1.1 to place and 1.28 to win. NEarest rival is Hunters light who looks value at 1.84 to place
515 NEWMARKET - 4 horses, 2 places and 2 under 10/1 makes Above All a good shout here to place at around 1.13

905 PONTEFRACT - REdvers looks ideally placed here but I do not know the odds as race time is a long way forward




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