1/4

looks like a safe choice between Arsenal and Real Madrid and the latter are on Champions League duty while the former can just concentrate on the league.

ONE A DAY *****530pm - Arsenal v Blackburn - back Arsenal in the match odds at 1.28*****
Hope I have made the right choice.

SATURDAY

12pm - Inverness CT v Celtic - 1.38 away

HEAD TO HEADS – 0-0 Caley Home, 0-1 Caley Home, 6-0 Celtic home league cup, 2-2 Celtic home, 1-2 Celtic away cup win.

Interesting head to heads here and something of a thorn for celtic whenever they meet bar the 6-0 league cup defeat. 0-0 and 0-1 Celtic away win at Caley in last 2 Premiership meetings might signal Celtic are a bit short at 1.38?

LEAGUE POSITION – 1^st v 7^th - Celtic have played one more than Rangers and are only 2 points ahead so this is a must win. As far as I can see, it’s middle table safety for Caley.

HOME TEAM

RECENT HOME FORM – WDLLDLWLW – against top 5 at home it’s LDLLL ( 1-1 draw v Rangers and already lost 1-0 to Celtic this season – 2 wins in last 3 home matches against 6^th and 8^th but just looks as if top 5 are a step too far.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLDLDLDWLLWL – no draws in last 5 – 1 win in last 4 – 7 of last 8 matches have seen one team scoring 2 or more in Caley matches.

Only 2 wins in last 16 matches

GOAL TRENDS – only 40% of home matches over 2.5 goals.Concede an average 1.4 goals per home match.only 2 overs in the last 11 matches. Have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 matches.Have only conceded one goal when each of Rangers and Celtic visit.

STREAKS – have not beaten the top 5 at home.No draw in 4 at home, 5 in total.Won 2 of last 3 home matches. No scored in 3 of last 4 matches.

AWAY TEAM - CELTIC

CELTIC RECENT AWAY FORM – 10 wins, 1 draw , 2 defeats – WWWWLWWDWWWL – recent loss at Motherwell showed a celtic team that was just poor and unworthy of the shirt. Hopefully an aberration.

CELTIC RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWDWWWWWWLW – great form – draw away to Hamilton and loss away to Motherwell both very surprising.

CELTIC GOAL TRENDS – 4 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals ( the other matches were 2-0’s!!)Clean sheet in 6 of last 8 matches Celtic have scored 2,3,3,3,0 in last 5 away matches.Have failed to score only twice in 28 matches this season.

Scored 22 and conceded 8 away all season.Only 46% over 2.5 goals away.

CELTIC STREAKS – 4 away without a draw, 8 matches in total. Have won 7 of last 8 matches. Have scored 4,3,3,3,0,2 in last 6 matches – the 0 looks like an anomaly.

CONCLUSION – well Caley at home have kept the Old Firm down to scoring just the one goal each which is no mean feat. It would seem they raise their game, as they concede 3 ,2,3,against 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th at home. Celtic immediately look too short . Maybe the need to win is factored in here?

1245pm - West Ham v Man Utd - 1.84 away

HEAD TO HEADS – 4-0 United away, 3-0 United Home , 3-0 United home, 4-0 West Ham home - ;last 4 head to heads saw a clean sheet for the victor and a minimum of 3 goals scored.

LEAGUE POSITION – Top by 5 points having played an extra game play 4^th from bottom only on 1 goal difference and only 2 points from safety. Upton Park will be the place to be this weekend I suspect. A win can take West Ham as high as 12^th ( other results pending)

HOME TEAM

WEST HAM - RECENT HOME FORM – WLDWLLWW – putting up a fight that’s for sure. Only 3 loss in their last 8 home matches – 50% wins. 2 of the 3 losses ominously against Man City and Arsenal ( 2^nd and 4^th)Against the top 4 at home, 3-0 loss Arsenal, 3-1 Loss Chelsea and 3-1 loss Man City.
WEST HAM - RECENT FORM OVERALL – DWLLDWLDWWD – only 1 loss in last 7 and West Ham have scored 2,3,0,3,3,3,0 – the 0 were against Brum and Spurs. They seem capable of goals. Unbeaten in last 4 matches.

GOAL TRENDS – 60% home matches over 2.5 goals – score 1.33 , concede 1.4 on average at home.Goals scored 20, goals conceded 21 at home!

3 of last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Against top 4 at home, have conceded 3 each time.

Clean sheet in last 2 matches. Have failed to score in only 2 of last7 matches.

STREAKS – 5 at home without a draw, current winning streak 2 at home, scoring 3 on both occasions. Matches against Man Utd last 4 times has finished either 3-0 or 4-0.

AWAY TEAM

MAN UTD RECENT AWAY FORM -DDDWDWLWLL – losses against Wolves ( bogey team for top 4), Chelsea, and Liverpool ( Champions League factor?) Last 5 matches over 2.5 goals.Away against bottom 4

West Ham – to play

Wolves 2-1 loss

Brum -1-1 draw

Wigan – 4-0 win

MAN UTD RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWDWWWLWWLLW – all coming apart in last 6 matches. No draw in 9. 8 draws, 3 defeats and 4 wins away the cause!

MAN UTD GOAL TRENDS – 73% of away matches over 2.5 goals – surely a chance of goals with the stakes so high for both sides. 0-0 useless for West Ham and United

MAN UTD STREAKS – 8 match over 2.5 goals streak ended with 1-0 home win over Bolton. Interestingly only 2 clean sheets in 8 matches.

United have failed to score in only 3 matches all season – Spurs, Man City, Sunderland - all 0-0’s.

CONSIDER – the time of year! Must Must wins for both sides for differing reasons. Recall Man City 1 Wigan 0 for an idea of how a team can suddenly find that fight.

I could consider goals as they are obviously in need at present. Whenever West Ham have scored in their last 13 matches they have got something from the game. 3 losses they did not score. 0-0 v Spurs they got something. Note an important Champions League match on 6th April for United may leave them vulnerable in this match and may see some changes and an air of complacency from old Red Nose?

If the form is accurate, this should be a United victory 3-0, 3-1 .

2pm - Atalanta v Triestina - 1.34 home - only one recent head to head of relevance is 1-0 Atalanta earlier in the season. Seria B
Top v bottom now and no wonder 1-0 only victors are 1.34
ATALANTA RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWDWDWDW - 11 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat at home - 3 of those draws coming recently.
2-1 win 0-0 draw against 2 of the bottom 3 they have played at home.
ATALANTA RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDDWWDDWWDDWD - talk about a strange sequence without losing.
GOAL TRENDS - only 29% of home matches over 2.5 goals. 3 1-1 draws in last 3 matches.
Only 2 of last 14 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Only 1 clean sheet in last 5 matches.Have scored in all of last 6 matches.
STREAKS - no defeat in 8 at home and 16 overall.
TRIESTINA - RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDDWLLD - general trend - NOT winning - 2 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats away hence my careful choice of wording - have lost to 3 of the top 4 they have played away ( playing the 4th of that quartet today)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDDLWDLLLDDD - no win in 6 but we see that persistence in the draws - last 4 draws all score draws - 2 of 3 recent losses were 1-0's.
GOAL TRENDS - 1 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. HAve not kept a clean sheet in last 7 matches . Last 3 matches score draws. 38% of away matches only over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - 3 away without a win - 7 in total.This could be a typical Italian 1-0 match or at least a stab at under 2.5 goals. I would have to consider covering the draw although suspect Atalanta will edge it 1-0 or 2-1.

230pm - B Munich v Mgladbach - 1.2 home - all but season over for Bayern, out of the title, out of the Champions League, out of the semi final of the Cup, and the Manager just waiting to depart. Still the bookies fear them at home.

HEAD TO HEADS 2-1 home win, 2-1 home win, 1-1 away draw, 3-3 away draw for Bayern in head to heads. 5 of last 6 head to heads have been over 2.5 goals. 3 of the 4 matches in 2009 and 2010 over 2.5 goals, the exception a 1-1 draw with goals post 60 minutes so maybe not tradable success for over 2,5 goals backers.

LEAGUE POSITION – 4^th against 18^th – 3^rd place definitely up for grabs, and 2^nd if Leverkusen collapse. Monch are routed to the bottom.

HOME TEAM

BAYERN RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWWWWLW – loss was against Dortmund which is not strictly a surprise. Have beaten 4 of the bottom 6 they have played at home scoring 5,4,3,2. Scored 3,4,3,4,3,5,4,1,6 in recent home matches.
BAYERN RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWLWWLLWW – no draw in 9 matches – losses against top, 3^rd and 11^th away where Bayern were 2-0 up and lost 3-2, so should have been a home win.

BAYERN GOAL TRENDS – last 9 matches all over 2.5 goals ( infact 8 of the 9 matches over 3.5 goals) –only 2 clean sheets in last 11 matches – great recipe for overs backers? 85% of home matches over 2.5 goals.Scored 36 and conceded 10 goals. 2.76 goal average per home match. Bayern scored whopping 18 goals in the last ¼ hour of their matches.
BAYERN STREAKS – 10 home matches without a draw – 9 matches overall without a draw. Last 9 matches ( 11 of last 12 matches) over 2.5 goals – 8 of last 9 matches over 3.5 goals.

AWAY TEAM

MGLADBACH RECENT AWAY FORM – LLWWLLD – have only played 2 of the top 6 away from home, 4-1 defeat to Dortmund and 3-6 win over Leverkusen. Have scored 1 goal in each of the last 5 away matches.

MGLADBACH RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWLWLLWLWDL -more inconsistency .Against top 5 home and away, here are the goal totals, 5,4,9,3,6,5 – huge bias towards goals playing the big teams.

MGLADBACH GOAL TRENDS – goal trend above v top 5 home and away.Conceded a massive 40 goals in the 2^nd half this season.77% of away matches over 2.5 goals.Concede an average 2.38 goals per away match. Last 3 matches under 2.5 goals.Only 1 clean sheet in last 7 matches. Scored in 10 consecutive matches until last match played.

MGLADBACH STREAKS – 3 away without a win.

CONCLUSION – looks “bleedin’ obvious” that we should be siding with goals, but do remember this is silly season where top v bottom encounters can be unpredictable.

230pm - Dortmund v Hannover - 1.47 home

HEAD TO HEADS 2009 and 2010 head to heads interesting – 4-4 draw at Hannover, 1-1 draw at hannover, 4-1 Dortmund win at home, 4-0 Dortmund win at Hannover. A different Dortmund in 2010?

LEAGUE POSITION – 1^st v 3^rd

HOME TEAM

DORTMUND RECENT HOME FORM – WWWDDWWD – no defeat in 12 at home. Have only played one of the top 3 at home , losing 2-0 to Leverkusen.
DORTMUND RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWDWDDWWWLD -3 losses all season and 5 draws all season and look at the 2 losses and 4 draws in last 11 matches – pressure showing?

DORTMUND GOAL TRENDS – wow!! Only 15% of home matches over 2.5 goals.Scored 23 and conceded 6 at home all season. Have kept clean sheets in 62% of home matches. Only one match in last 7 over 2.5 goals. Only 2 times in last 7 have they failed to score. Have only conceded 7 goals in the first half all season. Conceded only 2 goals in the first half hour of the 2^nd half. Conceded 7 goals in the last quarter of an hour of matches.

DORTMUND STREAKS – no defeat in 12 home matches

AWAY TEAM

HANNOVER RECENT AWAY FORM – LLWWLWLDWL – against the top 6 away from home, 2-0 loss to 2^nd, 3-0 loss to 4^th, 1-0 win v 5^th and 3-1 loss v 6^th. Generally struggle away to top 6 sides.

HANNOVER RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLWDWWWLW – good recent form -4 wins and one loss.

HANNOVER GOAL TRENDS – 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Only failed to score in one of last 7 matches. 545 overs away from home. Have scored 0,1,1,0 in last 4 away matches.

HANNOVER STREAKS – no draw in 2 matches, no draw in 5 overall.

CONCLUSION – Interesting that Hannover struggle away to top 6 sides. They have not scored away against 2^nd and 4^th. Dortmund stepped on the gas in 2010 head to heads. Concern that only 15% of Dortmund’s home matches have been over 2.5 goals.

3pm - Everton v Aston Villa - 1.89 home
HEAD TO HEADs DDD Aston Villa 1-0 home win. The draws were all score draws - change of manager syndrome and post transfer syndrome with the signing of Bent for Villa possibly changing their dynamic as regards earlier head to heads.
8th play 14th - mid table comfort zone plays one of many sides on 33 points - one foot in the grave and Villa the needier of the 2 teams.
EVERTON RECENT HOME FORM - DLLDWDWWDW - nice solidity about the last 4 home matches. - Everton have drawn at home against all of the bottom 4 and lost 4-1 to West Brom - these I would class as struggling teams and Villa are certainly in that category so an element of caution here for Everton backers.
EVERTON - RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDLWLWWDW - 4 wins and a drawn in last 6 matches. Last 3 losses suffered have been away from home.
EVERTON - GOAL TRENDS - 47% overs at home - 7 of last 13 matches over 2.5 goals but 13 of last 13 over 1.5 goals.
Have only kept one clean sheet in last 13 matches.
Have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches.
EVERTON - STREAKS - 7 at home without defeat, 4 overall. 2,2,5,2,1,2 the goals scored by Everton in their last 6 home matches.

VILLA
VILLA RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLDDWLDL - inconsistent forma way from home - the only wins away have come against the bottom 4 sides.
VILLA RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLDWWLDDWLL - again inconsistent and the 2 losses on the trot have to be curtailed or Villa re in the scrap.
GOAL TRENDS - Villa have conceded in all away matches this season -and odds on Everton are in great home form at present - 5 of the last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Villa have conceded in 19 of their last 20 matches. 67% of away matches over 2.5 goals.
Villa concede most regularly in the last quarter of an hour of the first half and 2nd half ( 11 and 17 goals) so perhaps lay if 0-0 coming up to the 75th minute?
STREAKS - no win in 3 away
I suspect the best Villa can hope for here is a draw

3pm - Rangers v Dundee Utd - 1.42 home
2 cup and 3 league head to heads and the latter are 0-0 Rangers away , 1-2 Rangers away and 4-0 Rangers home - today's match is the re running of the postponed match on 3rd March
2nd v 4th - Rangers can go top in real terms ( on same number of games played) with a win today as they have a game in hand and are only 2 points behind.

RANGERS RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWWWWW - only 2 defeats at home all season.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWWLWWWLWWW - no draw in 12 matches
GOAL TRENDS - 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals - 64% overs at home - 50% home matches clean sheets - score on average 2.35 at home - have scored 6,4,2 in last 3 home matches. 5 clean sheets in last 7 matches. Have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches this season ( twice against Celtic)
STREAKS - 6 match home winning streak - no draw in 9 at home - no draw in 12 in all.

DUNDEE UNITED
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDDDDLDDW - 6 of the 7 draws away were score draws - possibility of over 2.5 goals therefore?
Against top 3 away, 1-1 Celtic, 4-0 loss Rangers and 2-1 loss Hearts.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLDDWWWWW - great recent run of form but 4 home wins on the trot
GOAL TRENDS - 33% of away matches over 2.5 goals
Only 2 of the last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored in all of last 6 matches
STREAKS - 5 match winning streak, 7 without defeat but always seem to be unable to beat the top 3.

3pm - Stoke v Chelsea - 1.72 away
6/6 in head to heads both home and away make this 1.72 immediately appealing. 2-1 and 2-0 wins for Chelsea when they visit.
3rd v 10th - can Chelsea challenge for the title/ well they have to win and the others falter. CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ALERT - 6th April Chelsea have a match and realistically I do not think they can win the title so must prioritise the Champions League - TEAM CHANGES!!!
Stoke are mid table mediocrity and I feel they are safe from a relegation fight.
STOKE RECENT HOME FORM - DLLWWWDW - some solid recent home form scoring 2,2,3,1,4 - what has happened to hit and hope Stoke?
2-1 loss United, 1-1 draw City, 2-1 loss Spurs against top 5 at home
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLLWLLDLW - poor overall form - only one win in last 5. Home form may redeem them against Chelsea.
GOAL TRENDS - 40% overs at home - clean sheet in 33% of home matches - only 3 over 2.5 goals matches in last 9 - only 1 clean sheet in their last 8 matches - scored 13, conceded 10 in last 15 minutes this season.
STREAKS - 5 home matches without defeat.

CHELSEA
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDDLLWWDW - coming to the boil away it would seem?
3 against Blackpool, 4 against Sunderland and Bolton who are in close proximity to Stoke in the league.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLDWWW - loss to Liverpool and draw v Fulham
GOAL TRENDS - have scored 4,4,0,3 in last 4 away matches. Failed to score in only 2 of last 8 matches.

HMMM - What do we make of Stoke's recent winning run at home? But we need to note they are loss draw loss against top 5 at home. Are Chelsea threatening a spanking, scoring 4,4,0 ( fulham), 3 in last 4 away matches?

3pm - West Brom v Liverpool - 2.46 away

3pm - Wigan v Tottenham - 2.4 away

5pm - Brescia v Bologna - 1.63 home

5pm - Real Madrid v Gijon - 1.19 home - Real Madrid will not lose at home under Mourinho ( 9year unbeaten home league record) so this is either a win or a draw. Still, need to do the research!

HEAD TO HEADS WDWW for Real Madrid. At home, 3-1 is the most recent head to head in 2010.

LEAGUE POSITION 2^nd v 15^th. With 3^rd from bottom only 3 points behind Gijon, this is as important to them as it is to Real who are 5 points behind Barca and waiting for a slip up. Also note an important CHAMPIONS LEAGUE match on 5^th April . Team news vital for Real Madrid.

HOME TEAM

REAL MADRID RECENT HOME FORM – 14 match winning home record under Mourinho – have scored 6-6-7-2 in the matches they have played against bottom 7 sides ( of which Gijon is one)

REAL MADRID RECENT FORM OVERALL – DWLWWWDWWWW – all dropped points were away from home . The Osasuna loss, I believe, was prior to a Champions League match.

REAL MADRID GOAL TRENDS – Average 3.28 goals per match at home – 50/50 overs/unders. 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals, But only 4 of last 11 matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored 46 and conceded 6 all season at home. Have failed to score only 5 times all season, and all away from home.

Have conceded only 7 goals in the first half of all matches this season , scoring 33 goals!!

Opponents lead at half time in only 6.9% of matches. Real score first in 72% of all matches. Real have scored first in 13 of their 14 home matches. Ronaldo key at home – 20 of his 27 goals have been scored at home. Benzema coming into it increasingly. Benzema has scored 7 goals and scored in 5 of the last 6 Real matches.

REAL MADRID STREAKS – 14 matches at home winning sequence – last 3 home matches no concession of goals – no defeat in 8 matches overall.

AWAY TEAM

GIJON RECENT AWAY FORM – only 1 win away all season – 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 against top 5 away from home.LLDDWLDLD – inconsistent – 4 of last 7 aways have been draws. Have played 3^rd, 4^th 6^th and 7^th away from home recently , losses were both 3-0 losses against 6^th and 7^th sides.

GIJON RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWLDDDLWDW – only 1 loss in last 7 matches.

GIJON GOAL TRENDS – scored 10 away and conceded 22 away.43% over 2.5 goals away.Only 28% of points accrued away.6 of last 7 matches have been under 2.5 goals.Have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 6 matches. Have only scored 6 goals in last 10 matches. LDDL all under 2.5 goals against top 5 away. Infact, 3 of those matches were under 1.5 goals.

GIJON STREAKS – 4 away without a win. Have not beaten top 5 away. – 3 matches without defeat.

CONCLUSION – Real will not lose , based on Mourinho factor. Important Champions League match on 5^th April may temper team selection. Gijon historically tight against top 5 in home and away matches. Recently though, Gijon have lost 3-0 to 6^th and 7^th sides. A little Jekyll and Hyde. Benzema to continue scoring? 2-0 perhaps a tradable scoreline inbetween 1-0 and 3-0.

5pm - Trabzonspor v Konyaspor - 1.28 home

530pm - Arsenal v Blackburn - 1.28 home

HEAD TO HEADS WWLW for Arsenal in head to heads – last 2matches were 2-1 results. All 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Arsenal have won the last 2 at home, scoring an aggregate 10 goals.

LEAGUE POSITION – 2^nd v 13^th - game in hand over Man Utd who have a tricky away match at a pumped up West Ham. Blackburn are one of 4 teams on 33 points ( bottom team has 30 points) so points are absolutely vital for Blackburn. This becomes one of those matches where it’s a 6 pointer for both sides, and a neutral goals bet might be safer. Arsenal are out of the Champions League now so can concentrate wholly on the League title . United have one eye on the Champions League midweek match.

HOME TEAM

ARSENAL RECENT HOME FORM – LLWWDWWWWD – only 3 defeats all season at home.Against bottom 8 sides, have only lost 1 match at home, 2-3 v West brom ( should have won) and won the others. Have not played 13^th ( today) and 14^th but the pattern is obvious enough.

ARSENAL RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWDWDWWWDWWDD – unbeaten in 12 matches.Includes the 4-4 draw v Newcastle when 4-0 up at halftime, and 2-1 v wigan where an own goal made it 2-2.

ARSENAL GOAL TRENDS – score an average of 2 goals at home and concede 0.8 per match.Have kept clean sheets in an impressive 47% of home matches. 60% home matches over 2.5 goals.

3 of the last 4 matches under 2.5 goals. Clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 matches.

Have failed to score in only 2 of last 12 matches. Arsenal can get off to a flyer, scoring 11 and conceding only 1 goal in the first quarter of an hour of matches.
ARSENAL STREAKS – no defeat in 8 at home, have not conceded in 3 at home – undefeated in 12 matches in total.

AWAY TEAM

BLACKBURN RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLWLLLLL – says it all really. New Manager is not impacting at all.Win was a 3-1 win against West Brom.

BLACKBURN RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWLWLWLLDLLD - 5 of the last 6 wins have come at home. 7 losses and a 1-1 draw away to top 10 sides. 1-1 draw was against Man City.

BLACKBURN GOAL TRENDS – last 5 Blackburn away matches have seen the following scoreline ( all losses) – 3-0, 2-0, 4-3, 4-1, 3-2. Last 3 away matches have been over 4.5 goals.

4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. 805 of Blackburn’s away matches have been over 2.5 goals. They concede an average 2.53 goals per away match. Only 2 clean sheets in their last 15 matches. Have conceded a whopping 36 goals in the 2^nd half of matches. Have conceded in all away matches this season.

Have conceded 4,0,4,3,2 in last 5 matches.

BLACKBURN STREAKS – 13 matches without a draw away from home.current losing streak – 5 matches away from home – no win in 5 away matches, 6 matches overall. 4 of last 5 matches over 3.5 goals.

CONCLUSION- lest we forget the time of year, and that top v bottom matches are not necessarily that clear cut ( necessity for points), this looks all over an easy win for Arsenal with goals to boot. Over 3.5 goals for the speculative trader perhaps. Blackburn have scored first in 50% of matches this season, so enhanced traders take note!

530pm - Austria Vienna v KSV Superfund - 1.28 home

645pm - Heerenveen v Excelsior - 1.38 home

9pm - Villarreal v Barcelona - 1.7 away - an eye catching price for Barca. You will very rarely be able to back them at such odds in La Liga. It tells you a little something about Villareal at home?

500 CHEPSTOW -

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 E Street Boy, 6/1 Speedy Directa, 8/1 Lightening Fire, 12/1 Crackerjac Boy, 12/1 Gainsborough´s Art, 20/1 Bob Casey, 20/1 Immense, 20/1 Jeanry, 20/1 Kings Story, 25/1 Attainable, 25/1 Big Knickers, 25/1 Silent Jo, 33/1 King Kasyapa.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these bring recent form to the contest but if E STREET BOY doesn't feel the effects of a third race in six days he is clearly going to take some beating in the hat-trick bid.[Jonathan Neesom]

Dare we go to the well again? E Street boy still an eyecatching price gapper - 4/5 - - - 8/1 - potentially vulnerable with so many runs in so few days though.

Doncaster heralds the start of the flat proper but picking a winner is no easy task.

210 GOWRAN PARK

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Shot From The Hip, 5/1 Sir Vincent, 11/2 Canaly, 6/1 Days Hotel, 6/1 Joe Smooth, 7/1 The Bull Hayes, 12/1 Baily Dusk, 12/1 Knockcroghery, 12/1 Wood Lily, 14/1 Definitely Marble, 16/1 Rourke´s Cross.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHOT FROM THE HIP, placed in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown in February, makes most appeal to win this with The Bull Hayes and Canaly two capable of reaching the frame. [Brian Fleming]

8/11 - - - 7/1 price gapper as I write ( the market may unfold a bit more)

220 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Penitent, 5/1 Bikini Babe, 5/1 Saphira´s Fire, 7/1 Shamali, 8/1 Pink Symphony, 10/1 Chapter And Verse, 10/1 Cumulus Nimbus, 20/1 Resentful Angel, 25/1 Mr Willis.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Penitent is the class act in the line up and should make a bold bid to overcome his penalty but there is a slight doubt about him at this trip and it might be worth taking him on. Both Bikini Babe and SAPHIRA'S FIRE come here on long losing runs but a case can be argued for both and the latter is marginally preferred this time.[Paul Smith]

That's an early eyecatcher - Dettori on Penitent.

330 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Dan Breen, 5/1 Five Out Of Five, 6/1 Causeway King, 7/1 What´s Up Doc, 66/1 Waldo Winchester.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This revolves around whether DAN BREEN has recovered from his exertions in the Arkle, as with a mark of 148 he really should be much too good for these. Five Out Of Five is the one who could have better days ahead of him.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

2/5 - - -6/1 price gap in such a small field! Novice chase though and only 2 places

SHORTLIST - still trepidation with the start of the flat and would much rather take cues from the betting market at this early season stage.

1245pm - West ham v man Utd - over 1.5 goals looks the call here with both teams needing points for differing reasons. Neutral bet here because United have Champions League next week

5pm - Real Madrid v Gijon - 1.19 home - choice between a draw and home win when Mourinho teams are at home.
530pm - Arsenal v Blackburn - 1.28 home - Blackburn are in poor form and Arsenal really need a win, more so with knowledge of the United and Chelsea results before they go into play.

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

31/3

A day to leave alone and no need to jump in with the weekend afoot and the hope for better opportunities.

I think Retainer in the 420 Leicester is a great placer bet today, but am put off by the near year absence. Still, probability wise, if fully tuned up, he should place in the first 2 in what looks a 3 horse race.

Big gamble in the 645 Wolves is of interest, but nearer the time.

*****ONE A DAY - NO BET TODAY**** I will try and update for the 645 Wolves at 630pm ONLY on the blog, and only if I feel it is worthwhile and solid enough. The blog is www.cliveoneaday.com

password stable634

A drift on the selection yesterday saw a nice 1.41 Betfair SP but 1.23 when I wrote. That is the advantage of Betfair SP. It will capture drifts in price.

e Street boy went out to 5/6 in the betting which was a great surprise, but the horse won.

1230pm - Woodlands Wellington v Etoile - 1.22 away - more exciting Singapore league football. - Etoile have won last 4 head to heads , last 2 matches 2-0.

Woodlands have only won one of their last 11 matches, losing 8 and drawing 2 so this should be Etoile's all things being equal. 4 1-0 losses and a 0-0 hinted at defensive progress until Singapore armed forces scored 5 against them and then they lost 2-0 in their next match.

At home, Woodlands have lost 9 and drawn 2 of their last 11 matches.

It looks as if the league started in February where its been LLDLL for Woodlands

WDLWWW for Etoile since Feb sees only one loss and that was care of a 91st minute goal

WLW away from home in the 3 matches since February. 2-0 , 1-0 loss ( mentioned above), 1-0 win - the 1-0 win latest was a 90th minute Etoile winner.

And that, folks, is that as far as the football is concerned.

Cork is a no go area this evening with huge fields.

Leicester kicks off its turf flat campaign with a debutant only maiden for 2 year olds ( yikes) and a class 6 selling stakes ( where's that Samaritans number?)

420 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Retainer, 5/2 Glas Burn, 3/1 Breedj, 20/1 Restless Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RETAINER made a highly promising start to his career when winning easily in a race which worked out well at Newmarket last April and if in the same sort of form again, will be tough to beat despite conceding 10lb to a couple of fillies with Listed-race form to their name. Glas Burn may be the main danger, ahead of Breedj.[Mel Cullinan]

1 horse at 25/1 means this should revolve around the 3 others for 2 places - pure probability bet therefore.

The top 2 in the market have 351 and 321 day absences to overcome but Retainer has the great combo of Hannon/Moore.

545 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lord Avon, 2/1 Second Encore, 5/1 Sugar Beet, 6/1 Speedy Joe.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LORD AVON looked far superior to Second Encore when they met here last week and should be able to see off his old rival once more, but both were returning from a break that day and how they are affected by that run could prove crucial.[Stuart Redding]

Odds on this Lord Avon who has a win at this course to his name last time out. 4 horses and 2 places makes this a good 50/50 race for the placings.

645 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Take Your Partner, 5/1 Local Diktator, 7/1 Da Ponte, 8/1 Consistant.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond TAKE YOUR PARTNER, who had little difficulty landing a similar contest at Southwell last week and is set for a big hike in the weights. Not easy to split the other three but Local Diktatorhas proven fitness on his side and is the suggestion for Exacta purposes.[Stuart Redding]

A huge move for Da Ponte into 7/4 makes him extremely interesting as a potential gamble, what with returning from a 226 day absence.

SHORTLIST

As you can see it is a very difficult day where perhaps the market will be a key player here with Leicester's turf flat card.

1230pm - Woodlands Wellington v Etoile - 1.22 away - I always like backing teams who have a clear dominance in head to heads but I am stretching it a bit professing to be some kind of an expert on Singapore Football.

420 LEICESTER - typical of the conundrum faced with early season flat races. 300+ days absences for the front 2 market leaders although Retainer is tempting given his impressive debut win in April 2010 and Ryan Moore in the saddle. This is also an apparent 3 horse race for 2 places so ideally he only has to beat one to place if we are dismissing the outsider at 25/1

Around 1.2 to place, we would need faith in the jockey and trainer here after nearly a year's absence.

645 WOLVES is a race to return to nearer the off as it looked all over a race to side with Take your partner but a whopping gamble is unfurling on Da Ponte and yes, he has a 226 day absence to overcome so it could be that the stable fancy him today.

A lot can happen in the 7 hours between me writing this and the race time .

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

30/3

2 horses races and one Copa Libertadores match today for me. A toughie. Dubai Crest with McCoy onboard should place in a 7 runner race where only 4 are under 16/1 and 2 are 40/1 and 100/1.

e Street Boy is the best price gapper of the day , and quite standout 1/2 - - - -- 7/1 but is up in trip in a slightly more competitive race.

Analysis of last race "he should prove very hard to stop following up."

*****ONE A DAY 410 HEREFORD - BACK E STREET BOY TO PLACE ONLY - 1.23 CURRENTLY AVAILABLE - DON'T GO UNDER 1.2 -IF SO USE BETFAIR SP*****

i hope for a clear round at least and a competitive run before the handicapper catches hold.

Sweden won 2-1, although it was 2-0 for 89 minutes, and a missed penalty for Sweden made for a comfortable night.

735pm - England U16 v Scotland U16 - 1.58 home - this is an international friendly and unless you know about England's real nippers then leave well alone. 2010 head to heads postponed and England won in 2008 and 2009 2-0 and 2-1 so perhaps goals a safer bet in a friendly ( or safer still leave friendlies alone)
England have won their last 8 matches at home which is a decent record. Form for Scotland is sparce.

745pm - Motherwell v Dundee Utd - 2.74 home - this is a Scottish Cup match so really any league form analysis is redundant. The fact the favourite is 2.74 should also recount that this is a tricky one to pick a winner.
2-2 in the Cup on 13th March. Not a match I can get an angle into.

0150am - Internacional v Jorge Wilstermann - 1.14 home- on 16th March Internacional won 4-1 , hence the shorter price at home. 2 teams from different leagues meeting in the Copa Libertadores, so go with the head to heads and odds if you want an interest here. Over 2.5, 3.5 goals?

NOT IN PLAY

4pm - France U17 v Belarus U17 - 1.24 home - a qualifier so you can expect this to mean something. Not in play though - only illiquid match odds market and over/unders markets available,
These 2 last met March 2009 when Belarus got a man sent off after 52 minutes and ended losing 3-0.
I only have very basic form to go on care of www.futbol24.com
Reasonable form in friendlies for France but let's focus on meaningful matches they have played in the Euro qualifiers.
WDLWD in the 5 matches they have played, against Slovenia, Cyprus, Italy, georgia, Norway.
Belarus have played 5 qualifiers , 3 in September 2010 and 2 in March 2011. In between they played a number of friendlies and generally lost.
Again let's focus on those 5 matches - WWLLW - against Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Romania, Norway and a 1-0 win over Georgia.
The collateral form is against Norway where France drew 2-2 after being 2-1 infront, and Belarus were beaten 5-1 after taking a 1-0 lead.

745pm - Eastwood Town v Hyde - 1.43 home now in play where before it wasn't- conference match - head to heads WLW for home team so a little conflicting with that 2010 Hyde win. But recent form may explain why Eastwood are strong favourites.
WLDWWWWWWDW recent overall form. 7 of the last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
DWWWWW at home in the league says it all really. - again 5 of the last 6 matches at home have been over 2.5 goals.
LWWDLLLLWLLD for hyde in their last 12 matches overall. Only 2 wins and only 1 win and 1 draw in their last 8 matches.
6 of their last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals with 2 exceptions, a 2-0 loss and a 0-0 last match.
Interesting Hyde form away from home in 2011 - WLWWLWLD - hugely contrasting. 2 of the wins though came against bottom 4 sides.


Turf flat at Catterick and best left alone this early in the flat season.

210 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Dubai Crest, 7/2 Raya Star, 4/1 Swift Lord, 5/1 Nobunaga, 13/2 Furrows, 12/1 Dashing Doc, 40/1 Drumlang, 100/1 Dark Haven.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A competitive novice hurdle. DUBAI CREST looked useful when readily off the mark at Huntingdon and is taken to follow up with Tony McCoy now in the saddle. Old rival Swift Lord may give him most to do. [Dave Orton]

Furrows is a non runner. This is a 7 runner race for 3 places and so is of interest from the place only perspective.

Only 4 horses under 16/1 here we would hope will fight out the 3 places with Dubai Crest of obvious interest under McCoy.

310 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Balthazar King, 13/8 Quartz De Thaix, 4/1 Cottage Flyer, 16/1 Acrai Rua.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cottage Flyer is progressive, but this looks to be between BALTHAZAR KING and Quartz De Thaix, with narrow preference for the former returning from a break. [Dave Orton]

3 under 16/1 and 2 places -probability race but a novices chase so you takes your chance!!

410 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 E Street Boy, 7/1 The Composer, 9/1 Septos, 12/1 Body Gold, 14/1 Monty´s Moon, 16/1Any Given Moment, 16/1 Artic Pride, 25/1 The Wee Midget, 50/1 Beau Colonel, 66/1 Roi De Garde, 80/1 Sheezatreasure, 100/1 All The Fashion, 150/1 Dancing Legend.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: E STREET BOY was an effortless winner at Wincanton on Sunday and, although this is a bit more competitive, barring accidents he should go in again off the same mark. The Composer is next best. [Dave Orton]

Biggest price gapper of the day here 1/2 - - - - 7/1 and one of those handicap favourites expected to repeat emphatic win off the same mark. Spotlight tells us " barring accidents" for this handicap hurdle.

500 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Choral, 5/1 Beautiful Lando, 5/1 Spartan Spirit, 33/1 Court Applause, 50/1 Ede´sajolygoodfelo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Choral sets the standard and wouldn't be winning out of turn, but this easy 7f isn't sure to be what she wants and she could be worth taking on at the likely odds. SPARTAN SPIRIT was last of 14 on his Newbury debut last season but he didn't run as badly as that would suggest and he should fare much better this year.[Paul Smith]

great to see the big guns back, in Ryan Moore and kieren fallon. Moore takes Hannon's mount Choral who is now 1/5 and he is the kind of jockey you want to see on a jolly! 1/5 - - - -5/1 I would suspect it is a case of win only here although the place only price is likely to be reasonable with only 2 places and this being a maiden. 151 day absence a little bit of a niggle.

SHORTLIST

A day to tread very carefully with , as the flat season takes shape and horses return from long absences and maidens feature horses with no form at all.

Football wise it is difficult to.

0150am - Internacional v Jorge Wilstermann - 1.14 home - 4-1 away win should signal a repeat at home in the Copa Libertadores. Not much else to go on apart from the head to heads and the market. Over 1.5 goals at 1.12 includes both teams ( and Jorge will need to win) - questionable motivation from Internacional? I am not sure as I don't know the lay out of the Copa Libertadores.

210 HEREFORD - Dubai Crest has a reasonable chance of placing with the Champion Jockey onboard. 1.28 to place in a 7 runner race with 3 places and 2 guaranteed outsiders priced at 40/1 and 100/1 reducing the field to 5 runners for 3 places. Clear rounds as ever should suffice.

410 HEREFORD - E Street Boy is the most impressive price gapper of the day and is 1.23 to place which is a surprise for a 1/2 - - - - 7/1 shot. Tougher and up in trip but this Pipe/Scudamore horse's price gap is very enticing.

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

29/3

again some obvious horses today, none more so that Qozak and Kingscroft, but I will put my faith in the Swedes today as they have been superb and full of goals at home. Slight niggle that the Dutch only beat Moldova 1-0 but, without the evidence, I can only think that the Dutch must have rested some stars against such inferior opponents.

*****ONE A DAY 6pm - Sweden v Moldova - back Sweden in the match odds at 1.2*****

No problem from the Spanish Nippers yesterday, and a good example that friendlies are to be treated with caution, as Spanish under 21's drew with Belarus and England under 21's lost at home to Iceland.

As you will read later, we have more friendlies today.

2pm - Cyprus U21 v San Marino U21 - 1.06 home - again look towards goals here to enhance the odds? - a qualifier so expect a full pelt performance. 2 poor sides internationally and San Marino must really be bad if Cyprus are 1.06!

LLLLLDDLWLWD for Cyprus last 12 matches sees some semblance of a recovery last 4 matches beating Norway and Malta and drawing with Ireland.

An equally poor home record with only 1 win in last 12.

San Marino have lost their last 17 -that's as far as my research website goes! They have conceded 5,5,1,8,6,8,6,11,3,2,5,5. The 1 was against Latvia and the 2 against Bosnia.

Cyprus have scored at least 1 goal in 5 of their last 6 matches. The odds suggest 3,4 or more but it does not seem within the Cypriot's make up? But it is within San Marino's make up to concede!

Follow the odds here which would mean over 3.5 goals has a chance , but be ware illiquid betting markets and be ware a Cypriot team who really are no great shakes.

430pm - Czech Republic v Liechtenstein - 1.04 home - no great shakes themselves the Czechs. Good news is that this is a Euro Qualifier as well so expect the Czechs to show no mercy.The czechs won 2-0 away last time out in October 2010 and I suppose we will not be expecting fireworks from a typically dour eastern european outfit. As you know yourselves, 1.04 signals goals and halftime/fulltime victory ( they scored 2 in the 2-0 meeting).

Like Cyprus , do we trust a country not renowned as having any attacking flare? let's look at the limited stats and see!

Czechs can take heart from scoring 3 in their last 2 games, including scoring first against the mighty Spain before succumbing.

We have a rather mixed bag from the Czechs - 4-2 and 2-1 losses intermingled with 1-0 win and 1-0 loss and a 0-0 v Denmark. We would expect the team who scored 2 against Croatia to show up today.

3 losses in last 5at home include a shocking 1-0 loss to Lithuania .Last 2 homes have been the aforementioned 1-0 loss and 1-0 win over Scotland.

7-0 against San marino shows that the Czechs can do it against weaker opponents, as does the 4-1 home win over latvia.

LLDLLLDLLLDW - let's look at the draws for Liechtenstein . 1-1's against Finland, Iceland and Estonia. Liechtenstein scored first in the match against Estonia.

The win was a 1-0 against, erm, San marino who czechs beat, you'll recall, 7-0. That was a 57th minute winner after San Marino got an early red card - I mean this is hardly compelling evidence of Liechtenstein turning any kind of corner.

Liechtenstein have scored in their last 4 away matches, albeit against weak opponents. When it comes to a better class, they tend to lose to nil.

09.02.2011	FRL	San Marino	0-1	Liechtenstein
17.11.2010	FRL	Estonia	1-1	Liechtenstein
07.09.2010	ECQ	Scotland	2-1	Liechtenstein
11.08.2010	FRL	Iceland	1-1	Liechtenstein
14.11.2009	FRL	Croatia	5-0	Liechtenstein
05.09.2009	WCQL	Russia	3-0	Liechtenstein
06.06.2009	WCQL	Finland	2-1	Liechtenstein
28.03.2009	WCQL	Germany	4-0	Liechtenstein
19.11.2008	FRL	Slovakia	4-0	Liechtenstein
11.10.2008	WCQL	Wales	2-0	Liechtenstein
10.09.2008	WCQL	Azerbaijan	0-0	Liechtenstein
20.08.2008	FRL	Albania	2-0	Liechtenstein

6pm - Sweden v Moldova - 1.22 home - if memory serves, Sweden have a great home record.More good news is that this is a euro qualifier .Sweden's only loss in the last 12 matches was away to holland 4-1 and not unexpected given the Dutch squad is exceptional.

WWWWWWLDWDWD - Last 5 matches have been friendlies so take that form as such.

LWWWWWWWD for their home matches since 2009. Excellent form.The loss was 1-0 v Denmark when Sweden missed a penalty to open the scoring.

The draw was 0-0 in a friendly against the might of Germany so a good result.

4,1,4,4,3,2,6 the goals scored by Sweden in those wins. Very consistent at home, with Ibra, Berg and kallstrom the 3 who tend to do most of the scoring.

With recent home form, then, we would not expect Sweden to lose.

Moldova have won 4 of their last 12, against such, erm, illustrious opponents as Andorra (2-1 away win requiring a 94th minute penalty to secure the win), San Marino 2-0 ( 2nd goal 86th minute), 2-0 against 10 man Finland and 1-0 against 10 man Kazakstan.

Hardly compelling.

The Moldovans don't get trounced , the most they have lost by in the last 12 matches has been 3 goals.

Euro qualifiers saw a home 1-0 loss v Netherlands, although you might suspect the netherlands rested players ( I am just thinking aloud), and 2-1 loss v Hungary( were 2-0 down)

Expect Swedish dominance here. Will they replicate their recent home goalscoring exploits or is that 1-0 v the Dutch a sign that the Moldovans can frustrate?

645pm - Romania v Luxembourg - 1.14 home - another Euro qualifier - no recent head to heads. Romania have only won 1 of their last 12 matches and are 1.14! Yikes. Lux must be Sunday League! 5 draws in their last 7 matches forRomania. REcent 3-1 win against the Faroes perhaps what Romania are capable of this evening?

Romania have drawn their last 3 matches at home, most notably in a friendly against Italy, 1-1.

lux have only won 2 of their last 12 matches, most recently 2-1 over Slovakia at home in a friendly.

LLDLL in the Euro qualifiers though .

LDLLLLL away from home since 2009 says it all really conceding 0,7,2,5,1,2. I suspect this could be one of the tighter defeats.

730pm - Netherlands v Hungary - 1.14 home - the last time the dutch were beaten, I think Johann Cruyff was just perfecting his turn! You get the idea! It's been a long time! 25th March Euro qualifier saw a 4-0 Dutch win at Hungary. Be wary wounded animals tend to fight back. Also an element of recent familiarity. Still the bookies expect nothing less than a repeat from the Dutch who tend to score as the odds suggest.

I will repeat, verbatim, my research from the last meeting 25th March as it is still relevant

"730pm – Hungary v Netherlands – 1.51 away -Euro Qualifier so immediately of interest – Holland beat Hungary 6-1 in a recent home friendly and have a quite superb squad. Afellay is the latest eyecatcher snapped up by Barca – he is very exciting. Van Robben terrorising defences, Van Der vaart’s class, Snjeider’s sublime ball skills, Kuyt’s, well, running round like a headless chicken on speed, and Van Persie’s super finishing.

Surely the Hungarians are up against it?
But be ware a good winning streak for both sides.
Hungary have won their last 5, but hang on a sec, check out some of the opponents – Azerbaijan, Moldova, San Marino,Lithuania and Finland. Hmm.
Netherlands last lost 33 matches ago, when an early sending off saw them lose 2-1 to Australia back in 2008.16 wins and 2 draws in last 18 matches for Netherlands. 1 draw was the, ahem, World Cup Final and the next draw was a 1-1 friendly – the next match after the World Cup Final.
This 1.51 therefore is a steal is it not? Dutch squad news would be appreciated here to make sure all the above mentioned players are playing"

I will add an addendum that team news for the Dutch might be required as a manager who sees his side score 10 in 2 meetings might field a weaker side and rest some stars at home against much weaker opponents.

745pm - Belgium v Azerbaijan - 1.23 home - the Belgians are the team that the press are raving about. Like Spain and Netherlands, Belgium have stumbled across a new breed of exciting talent at this particular time ( and note Belgium will be well worth backing for Euro Championships and World Cup) Belgium are unbeaten in their last 5 matches but in euro qualifiers lost 1-0 to Germany, and 3-2 against Turkey.Only recent losses at home have come against Germany (1-0) and Croatia ( 1-0 friendly)

Azer have lost their last 4 away matches, conceding 3,6,3,2 and in Euros have lost 6-0 to Germany and 3-0 to Austria ( an Austrian side beaten 2-0 by Belgium , good collateral form)

745pm - Germany v Australia - 1.39 home - a friendly and Germany have drawn their last 3 friendlies , and may be shuffling the pack in an ultimately meaningless re reun of the world Cup meeting where they won 4-0.

As a friendly, you either get involved or leave alone.

745pm - Lithuania v Spain - 1.34 away - reading the Racing Post and it is the pitch that is a huge concern for the passing Spanish and that may throw a spanner in the works and perhaps open up a lay of 1.34 for a short period of time, in anticipation of Spain needing some time to adapt? 3-1 in October 2010 to Spain.

Spain have won the matches they need to win ( exception 0-0 90 minutes World Cup Final) and have drawn or lost friendlies.

The market expects this trend to continue. Spain away have won their 2 important Euro Qualifiers 4-1 v Liechtenstein and 2-3 v Scotland ( they were 3-1 up and scored an own goal for Scotland). Lithuania beat the Czechs 1-0, drew 0-0 with Scotland and lost 3-1 to Spain in the Euros.HAve only lost 3 at home in last 12 ( featuring 6 friendlies though)

8pm - England v Ghana - 1.76 home -utterly meaningless match. Watch and view to make your decisions. Wholesale changes means this is not worth my time and effort.

845pm - Portugal v Finland - 1.39 home - another international friendly which you either go with or you don't.

240 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 I Confess, 2/1 Gallantry, 4/1 The Big Haerth, 6/1 Fifth In Line, 66/1 Pictures, 100/1 Final Try, 100/1 Mumtaz Begum.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The reliable I CONFESS (nap) has been mopping up in similar events over the winter and his tactical pace entitles him to preference over Gallantry who is seen to best effect off a strong gallop.[Adrian Cook]

4 under 66/1 for 2 places. Perfect 50/50 race.

340 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Kingscroft, 9/4 Bunce, 14/1 Toms River Tess.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A much more realistic assignment for Conducting than when fourth in a Listed race over C&D on Saturday but preference is for KINGSCROFT who is on the upgrade and won a useful handicap over this trip at Wolverhampton last time.[Adrian Cook]

A carbon copy of joe Le Taxi's race yesterday sees the Johnston horse Kingscroft with only 1 to beat to place in a 3 horse race for 2 places.

220 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Bold Addition, 11/4 Lucy´s Perfect, 10/1 Dolores Ortiz, 25/1 Be Kind.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A straight match in all probability and it's not hard to give BOLD ADDITION the edge overLucy's Perfect.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Now 1/5 the fav with Lucy's Perfect the obvious alternative at trainer david Pipe's local track

250 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Qozak, 100/30 Hudibras.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On all evidence QOZAK is a far superior horse to his solitary rival and this is basically his to lose.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Hit and hope! A clear round will suffice for Qozak against these bigger chase fences.

SHORTLIST

430pm - Czech Republic v Liechtenstein - 1.04 home - this should go with the odds but do we trust goals here? 2-0 last time out. 1.04 indicates a lot more than 2!! An illiquid 1.2 for Half Time Czech win is very enticing given they scored their 2 away goals before half time in the corresponding fixture.

1.32 over 2.5 goals relays some unease in the market but 1.04 tells us this should be more like 3,4,5 goals win to nil.

6pm - Sweden v Moldova - 1.22 home - this looks about right and if you look at the goalscoring exploits of the Swedes at home, you could argue for an over 3.5 speculative trade ?

730pm - Netherlands v Hungary - 1.14 home - beware teams meeting so soon after previous meetings . That will allow Hungary to adjust defensively. But against this Dutch side? Team news required here for the Dutch - threat of a slightly changed team against perceived weaker opponents?

745pm - Belgium v Azerbaijan - 1.23 home - the talk of the town and the buzz of football journos all salivating over this new Belgian side with so many exciting young players. Expectation therefore is for the home win this evening.

745pm - Lithuania v Spain - 1.34 away - traders note, Spain could be backable at a bigger price as this match goes on. The Spanish manager has called for the match to be postponed because of the pitch. If the match goes ahead, then perhaps this may hinder the passing game of the Spanish?

With the pitch in mind, one to view and react accordingly.

340 LINGFIELD - looks like Kingscroft will place here in this 3 horse race for 2 places.

220 TAUNTON - Bold addition is 1.22 to win and 1.07 to place with Lucys Perfect perhaps the value alternative at 1.32 currently to place.

250 TAUNTON - Qozak is 1.2 to win only in a 2 horse race. A chase race so layable on the basis of only a single run over chase fences and a chance that the horse might be prone to a mistake at some point which may bump up the 1.2 price to allow a trade.

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94