21/5http://www.blogger.com/moderate-comment.g?blogID=7312132027572261300

Your success or otherwise yesterday would have been determined by a single decision. Do I place back Akmal, and if so, stop for the day under the ONE A DAY rules?
If you did the above, then it's job done, happy days
BUT if you went for Coq Hardi instead of Akmal then a losing day alas. I say it again and again with these jumpers - they stay up - the DON'T fall, unseat rider, get pulled up - THEY PLACE!
I hope, at least, yesterday , that I put you off any involvement in KAyf Aramis , YES, another odds on shot unplaced under the greatest, erm, jockey ever to wear a beret!

200 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Le Brocquy, 13/8 Super Ross, 9/2 Ministerofinterior, 14/1 Art Gallery, 16/1 Silver Syd, 25/1 Beau Troubadour, Maude Gonne.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LE BROCQUY has produced enough to suggest he can open the hurdling account in a race like this and he can make the most of the weight received from main rivals Super Ross and Ministerofinterior

A 7 runner selling hurdle is not top of the list at all, but it looks like a 3 horse race in the betting forecast ( the proviso, as we know by now, is no unseating, falling, pulled up !!)
This is one of those races where we expect the first 3 to be the ones battling for 2 places, BUT the conundrum is determining which of the first 3 is going to falter? The market tells us Ministeroftheinterior with Super Ross 5/4 and Le Brocquy 7/4
SUper Ross has McCoy on board but we must remember these horses are in a seller for a reason- they're NOT Masterminded!!
To make it easier, Super Ross fell last time out BUT won under McCoy previous to that.
Le Brocquy slipped last time out
Only 2 places mean we have to get this right 1.38 and 1.61 to place

235 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Karashar, 2/1 National Heritage, 10/1 Highland Laddie, 16/1 Mysterious World, 25/1 Josephine Malines, 33/1 Black Eyed Pea, 100/1 Shoot Out,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent opportunity for KARASHAR, who was unlucky not to win last summer and wouldn't need to improve on his latest placing to go close in this weaker race.[BDO]

McCoy on an odds on shot is always a welcoming site - this guy is a winner !8 runners originally now down to 6, BUT one of the horses was "DOUBTFUL" meaning I guess Betfair will be only paying out for 2 places.
An interesting 6 runner race with 3 horses only under 25/1 . Disconcerting to see Karashar a faller twice in succession last year ( or maybe I am being too sensitive to Coq Hardi's fall yesterday?)
Coq Hardi's race was a 3 miler yesterday - this is only 2 miles so chances of a fall are lessened with the shorter distance.
Looks a 2 horse race, 3 at a stretch. Highland Laddie is the fly in the ointment. 1.15 and 1.44 the front 2 to place
Karashar may have needed the run last time after 196 days out. With that under his belt he could improve

400 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Copperbeech, 5/2 Splashdown, 5/1 Moneycantbuymelove, 7/1 Say No Now, 10/1 Faldal, 16/1 Fallen In Love, 20/1 Multiplication, 33/1 Dulcie, 50/1 Miss Beat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Luca Cumani won this two years ago with Cosmodrome and can strike with her half-sister SPLASHDOWN who very much looks the type to make a decent 3yo and has already shown a very useful level of form. Prix Marcel Boussac third Copperbeech, who is making her debut for Godolphin today, is clearly the one she has to beat.[AC]

A class 1 listed race, and I do tend to view these with 2 minds.
1) surely short priced favs MUST be good to be short priced favs in a listed race.....BUT
2) surely the other horses are very good horses and cannot be discounted because they are entered in a class 1 listed race!
An 8 runner race and 3 places, yet again we face a market where the favs are 7/4 and 2/1, and as was seen yesterday, generally one of these will fail to give their running - BUT WHICH ONE?
Again, as is the characteristic this early flat season, both favs have not had a run since Nov 2008. We have already seen apparent good things faltering on their seasonal debut
1.27 and 1.37 to place the front 2

540 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Middle Persia, 7/2 Genesi, 5/1 Frosted Grape, Hassuna, 8/1 Coppers, 10/1 Taralga, 12/1 Roseska, 20/1 Cacace, Carolobrian, 25/1 Cascada.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MIDDLE PERSIA made a satisfactory debut at Limerick early last month and looks the one to beat.

Middle Persia is a price gapper , Weld/Smullen combo, and odds on price gapper. BUT has only had one run and heavy ground today 1.26 to place -illiquid market

550 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Above Limits, 9/2 She´s Ok, 5/1 Exotic Beauty, 11/2 Fleeting Echo, 10/1 Itwasonlyakiss, Mind The Monarch, 16/1 Princess Shamal, 25/1 Gooseberry Bush,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Exotic Beauty is the likeliest newcomer on breeding and one to note in market moves, but ABOVE LIMITS, having run well in a decent race first time out, should be able to win a race like this with the experience to call upon.[FC]

A price gapper here but a 2 year old maiden with only one ( encouraging) run, installed as solid favourite over 5 furlongs with apparently a bad draw - yes - easy isn't it!? 1.21 to place

Analysis from last race
Above Limits, who attracted support, is a half-sister to several winners up to middle distances and she shaped with plenty of credit against more experienced rivals from the widest draw on this racecourse debut. She may turn out to be the best of these and looks sure to win a race.


650 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Mirrored, 4/1 Roar Of Applause, 8/1 Barbarian, Everynight, 10/1 Love Pegasus, 12/1 Fanditha, Thin Red Line, 14/1 Peking Prince, 20/1 Moon Lightning, 25/1 Al Sabaheya, Davids Matador, Fajita, Queen Of Thebes.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Roar Of Applause is in rude health at present and has to be respected, while Everynight is another to consider back on easier ground. MIRRORED (nap) looked one to keep on the right side of on his reappearance though and there were some fair sorts in behind him on that occasion.[PSm]

Frankie Dettori fo Michael Stoute is certainly eye catching. A winner last time out (and this is a handicap) so a 7 lb rise makes life a little more difficult and we have seen some sure things in handicaps go tits up ( Kayf aramis anyone?)
handicaps are difficult for a reason!
Price gapper in the live market
5/4.........6/1 1.35 to place

815 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dubai Legend, 11/4 Cape Melody, 13/2 Sharpened Edge, 12/1 Eyes Like A Hawk, Garter Star, 14/1 Chandika, Rosie Two, 16/1 Langland Bay, 20/1 King´s Miracle, 25/1 Milldown Story, 33/1 Dilli Dancer, Global Conquest, 66/1 Rest By The River, 100/1 Shybutwilling.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cape Melody has to be respected after going close over C&D last time but DUBAI LEGEND sets the standard on the pick of her 2yo form and, although she's had four starts already, this will be only her third attempt on turf. Support for any of the newcomers should be noted.[SB]

2 strong market leaders, BUT yet again, Dubai Legend has not had a run since October 2008 but was 7th when last seen out in a class 2.
Cape Melody has had a run recently and 2 2nd places are encouraging but in a maiden race with a big field, will the front 2 fill one of the 3 places? 1.27 and 1.29 the front 2 in illiquid markets

835 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Leocorno, 8/1 Dakiyah, Lyra´s Daemon, 10/1 Bookiebasher Babe, Lady Brora, 16/1 Binfield, Maybe I Will, 33/1 Hip Hip Hooray, Uig,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around Oaks aspirant LEOCORNO, who created such a good impression when winning at Doncaster last autumn. Her preparations haven't been trouble free, but a mark of 78 should be lenient enough for her to get away with it this time. Dakiyah and the game Lyra's Daemon could prove best of the rest.

First real proper price gapper of the day. As you can see, that's an eyecatching price gap. Let's investigate further
Very impressive winner last time out BUT THAT WAS OCTOBER 2008! Yet again, we have this problem as backers - the only person to know how the horse has been in the interim is the trainer
2nd and 3rd favs have both won their last 2 races
This is a 0-80 handicap and the fav is entered in the Oaks - why run in a lowly handicap such as this if not to get a run in the horse ( making winning this race not a priority perhaps?)
Dettori on for Stoute for the 2nd time today 1.21 to place

FOOTBALL

16:00

Kalmar vs Orgryte

3/10

Season only 9 games old. 11th in the league are so short because they play the bottom side
Have lost 2 and won 2 at home (lost only by 1-0)
Orgryte have lost all games this season bar one 1-1 draw They have lost 3-0 to likely league leaders and lost 2-1 against teams of similar ability to Kalmar.

16:30

VIFK vs OLS

4/11

Can't find any form for this one

23:50

Boca Juniors vs Def Sporting

1/3

Copa libertadores
2-2 away from home but Boca scored first. Involvement for me would involve trading.

SHORTLIST
This really is a difficult day-9 early season maiden races, and 22 handicaps around all venues !
235 WETHERBY
7 runner race and Karashar at 1.15 to place in the first 2. McCoy on board here.
3 horses are 25/1 or bigger reducing the field to 3.Karashar has had a recent run which is encouragin but I am all too aware of the chance of falls in these hurdle events.
A maiden hurdle ( yes another maiden), tells you these are non winners over hurdles.
Probability wise it should be 3 vying for 2 places.
BUT I don't like these top heavy markets because inevitably one of the 2 shorties will falter BUT WHICH ONE?
McCoy is the positive here as is the shorter distance. The hope is the outsiders run as outsiders
As we saw yesterday it's better really to go with flat races than jumps races as in the former the horses will only be unplaced if beaten by 2 or 3 other horses and NOT if beaten by the fences too!

550 SANDOWN
Typcial of the problems I've been having. Above limits has only had one run and is now odds on based on that run against 5 debutants. These maiden shorties have been hit and miss and it is only luck that you select the right 2 year old to replicate their only run
Bad draw today ( had a bad draw last time) -over 5 furlongs the draw bias is accentuated 1.21 to place

835 SANDOWN
Leocorno is the only real price gapper of the day
YET AGAIN, installed as hot fav based on performances as long ago as October 2008, and we have a growing list of hot pot returnees who do not place( Rainbow View anyone?)

Kalmar v Orgyrte would be of interest were it not for the fact this is NOT in running.Over 2.5 goals is 1.78 but I guess this will rest on Orgyrte scoring a goal.
Boca Juniors are 1.23 to score over 1.5 goals in that game. 2-2 last time out. This has a great chance of coming off from trading perspective.

ONE A DAY

Looking at the shorlist negatives
1) 235 WETH-only 2 places and a maiden hurdle
2) 550 SANDOWN - unfavourable draw - 2 year old 5 furlong maiden -short based on only one run
3)835 SANDOWN - Leocarna - not run since Oct 2008

Not an appetising day at all!
My only alternative really is Boca Juniors game - over 1.5 goals at 1.23 today which would be my favoured bet today. This will be my official one a day - long wait I know!
Of the horse bets, well the 2 flat horses are favoured as their only obstacles are other horses. I will do an update on these 2 at 5pm given the evening times.
Karashar is supported at present but we saw yesterday that falls can happen even with the best jockeys like Robert Thornton yesterday. I personally will chance Karashar today at 235 with trading in mind, but would urge those looking for a safer bet to wait for the evening update or just go Boca Juniors over 1.5 goals market at 1.23.