200 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Jesse James, 7/2 Maria Nunziata, 11/2 Eastern Empire, 6/1 Mutawarath, 8/1 Monaco Dream, 10/1 Dream On Connie, 16/1 Mejala, 25/1 Flapper, In Secret, Stravella, 33/1 Dubai Gem, Eye For The Girls.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market support for any of the newcomers would be interesting, but as things stand JESSE JAMES is the one to beat for the yard that took this with Pipedreamer two years ago, though both Eastern Empire and Monaco Dream look open to more improvement.[GN] |
Now 5/6 the fav and a price gapper in the live bettingmarket. Unlike a lot of maiden favs , Jesse James has had a run this year . 2 consecutive 2nd places augur well for this maiden.
Negatives? - race size and 5 debutants 1.19 to place - obviously the market fancies this one
In secret a market mover at 14/1
235 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Gold Gun, 9/4 Ferrando, 11/2 Shanahan, 13/2 Joli Classical, 12/1 Tandori, 16/1 Just Mossie.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GOLD GUN may not need to perform to even his current mark dropped significantly in class and is the one to beat on paper. Ferrando is feared most, particularly if the betting gives the right signals.[SB] |
Fav now odds on, but as was seen in Segal's race, with outsiders at just 14/1 this could be competitive 1.4 to place backs up the competitiveness
245 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Masterofthehorse, 3/1 Debussy, 5/1 Sight Unseen, 7/1 Above Average, Saptapadi, 12/1 Too Much Trouble, 14/1 Golden Sword, 200/1 Solo Choice.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The step up to ths trip will suit MASTEROFTHEHORSE, whose close Beresford Stakes third to Sea The Stars and Mourayan, with this year's Group 3 winner Recharge fourth, sets an exacting standard for the promising pair Debussy and Sight Unseen to surpass.[AC] |
Outside 3 can hopefully be discounted
Masterofthehorse represents Ballydoyle an their favs can usually be relied upon, especially in an 8 runner race, to place in the first 3. Debussy has shortened a little 1.41 to place shows unease with, I suppose, the competitive nature of this race but others will see it as a big price for a Ballydoyle horse
300 GOODWOOD
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not much pace on here by the looks of things and that should allow SUPERDUPER (nap) to get back on the winning trail after her good reappearance. Stand In Flames and Artistic License are feared most.[GN] |
I'll include this as a difficult race to read.
Superduper is a price gapper in the live betting market , now 7/4
BUT the outsider in the live market is 10/1 in this handicap indicating this is a race where you cannot discount any of the runners
305 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Quell The Storm, 3/1 Vacario, 9/2 Jaunty, Scalleys Run, 8/1 Starlight Air, 16/1 Alesandro Mantegna, 20/1 Cailin Na Ri, 33/1 Golden Rule, 66/1 Miss Maratana, 100/1 Murphy´s Mate.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUELL THE STORM, who is from the family of top-class chaser First Gold, is bred to do a lot better in due course and can build on the promise of his only bumper start. Market support for Scalleys Run would be significant.[SB] |
Mullins/Walsh were successful yesterday.
In this 10 runner race, 4 can hopefully be discounted reducing the field to 6, 3 to place 1.4 to place
400 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Swilly Ferry, 6/1 Johnnyleary, 8/1 Bebenine, 10/1 Metal Soldier, 12/1 Reel Credit Crunch, 20/1 Angelena Ballerina, 33/1 Bossy Kitty, Ramamara, 50/1 Whistling Wind, 66/1 Psychopathicsandra, 100/1 Needwood Dancer.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The defeat of Senatorial last year ended a sequence of winning favourites for Barry Hills in this race but SWILLY FERRY, although not ideally drawn, has an obvious chance to increase the stable's domination |
Price gapper in this maiden - 5 furlongs so the draw will be important. As we read, fav does not have an ideal draw - running against a few debutants. Has a recent run
3 horses at 66/1 or bigger
2 horses at 25/1 or bigger
The trainer has farmed this race over the years. BUT we come ack to the draw - how significant will it be over 5 furlongs? 1.16 to place again shows extreme confidence in the market
445 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tactic, 4/1 Time Machine, 6/1 Cill Rialaig, 8/1 Gibb River, King´s La Mont, 33/1 Almutawaazin, Warrior Conquest, 66/1 Langford Decoit.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TACTIC is taken to beat Time Machine and Cill Rialaig and justify the opinion in which his entries suggest he is held.[GN] |
8 runners ideal for place only betting.
2 at 66/1 can hopefully be discounted as can the horse at 28/1 leaving 5 fighting for 3 places
Fav is a price gapper. 2nd and 3rd favs look popular given their prices have contracted. Fav is NOT odds on in live market but has a progressive profile -4-3-2 -he's getting closer
NEGATIVES - middle distance maiden race 1.2 to place
515 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Carefree Smile, 5/1 Lift The Gloom, 6/1 Frosted Grape, 8/1 Pebble In A Pool, 10/1 Someone Praying, 12/1 Destined For Fame, 20/1 Suprise Vendor, Tax Dodger, 25/1 Freedom Inyoureyes, Spinning Wings.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CARELESS SMILE has much the best form on display here, though it is a concern that she failed to show any evidence of improvement after finishing second to the subsequent Group 2-placed Oui Say Oui on her debut over 6f at the Curragh last July. She failed to uphold form with third-placed Baliyana on her next start and then finished in mid-division in the Goffs Fillies Million before a final run of the season over 1m at Navan.\n |
Weld/Smullen must always be respected and is a price gapper but the profile, as precised above is not encouraging at all 1.32 to place in an illiquid market
525 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Le Duc, 7/2 Rockwithacaveman, 10/1 Thirtytwo Red, Waynesworld, 16/1 Howdy Cloud, 25/1 Frosty Jak, 50/1 Moment Of Magic, Troll, 66/1 Gallamora.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LE DUC ought to be able to dispose of these rivals without too much fuss, especially as there are doubts about the wellbeing of Waynesworld and the ground for Rockwithacaveman.[EMW] |
Only 2 under 10/1 here - 3 mile+ and a hunter chase - has been running in class 2's so this is some drop in class here. A Nicholls horse so much repsecte and no real movers amongst the other horses. 1.13 to place here with 3 the place
530 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Existentialist, 5/2 Billie Jean, 8/1 Aegean Destiny, 10/1 Zinjbar, 14/1 Xaara Star, 16/1 Angie´s Nap, 25/1 Country Princess, La Pantera, 33/1 Bell´s Ocean, Itwasonlyakiss, 40/1 Jasmine Scent, 66/1 Silvee,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Billie Jean takes the eye among the newcomers, but EXISTENTIALIST put down a solid marker on her debut and will take plenty of beating.[FC] |
Another "hard to beat" selection. 1.28 to place
715 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nearby, 5/2 Art Trend, 7/2 Silver Point, 11/2 First Avenue, 10/1 Jackers, 20/1 Bingo Des Mottes, 33/1 Merlins Mate, 66/1 Beauchamp Viking, 100/1 Ground Patrol.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Art Trend and First Avenue are more than capable of winning this race but preference is for the more reliable NEARBY, who acts on this ground and has been running well lately. Prolific Flat winner Silver Point is an interesting newcomer to hurdles.[EMW] |
Art trend is the non runner here which surely makes Nearby's job a little easier. 3 horses are at 25/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted.
What is a concern is the closeness of the remaining horses - 4 horses between 4/1 and 6/1 indicate they have evvery chance, with Nearby at evens.
I like Richard Johnson and the fact this horse has recent good form 1.17 to place
745 WINCANTON
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The level of this year's form shown by TURTHEN would look good in most hunter chase company and this prize is his to lose. Imperial Sun can head the chase.[AWJ] |
Again let the bookies do the work for you. Next job is to justify whether this price is worthy of the horse's chances and whether there are any reasons NOT to back the horse.
His 2 runs in 2009 have been excellent and jockey has ridden the horse so een though I am unfamiliar with her, more importantly she is familair with the horse.
No market movers amongst the other horses 1.16 to place - highly illiquid market
FOOTBALL
Nothing today for the footy
SHORTLIST
200 GOODWOOD - I am taken by the odds on now for Jesse James, the fact he has a run this year and a 2nd place, the fact he has Richard hughes on board and there seems to be support for only one horse In Secret. 5 of the 12 runners are 25/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted in this maiden. 1.19 to place
305 NEWTON ABBOTT - Quell the Storm , last run Dec 2008, is fav in this maiden hurdle, and I include him here simply because it's Walsh and Mullins and they have been superb generally when head of a betting market.
1.4 to place tells us this is competitive and the horse's chance is not clear cut - after all it is the type of race where favs can be opposed.
400 CHESTER - Swilly Ferry represents connections with 3/4 winners last 4 years in this race - 1.16 to place is significantly confident
Negative- drawn in 6 and over 5 furlongs, the draw takes on added significance over shorter distances
445 GOODWOOD - Tactic is 1.2 to place and although drifting a little bit, with Time MAchine showing signs of being backed, with only 8 runners and 3 places, we should see a prominent display for the place
525 NEWTON ABBOTT - Le Duc is 1 13 to place (short because it's 3 places)- major drop in class and Popham riding as its a hunter chase. 3 miles 2 is a long way but , if we assume Le Duc won't fall, get pulled up, or unseat rider, is there 3 horses in this field to beat him?
715 WINCANTON - Art trend the non runner means Nearby has a clearer opportunity 1.17 to place. My concern is the 4 horses queuing up behind at between 4/1 - 6/1
9 down to 8 runners and 3 outsiders who can hopefully be dismissed
745 WINCANTON - defaulted given his price, Turthen is 1/3 to win and 1.16 to place which is very reasonable
3 mile 1 f means open to falling, unseating,being pulled up but his 2 runs in 2009 are very good and no problem with the female jockey.Again 1.16 is a biggish price ,but I suppose that accounts for the distance and the obstacles
ONE A DAY
445 GOODWOOD. I am taken by Tactic here to place at 1.2 BUT will monitor as there is a slight drift at present. Time machine and Gibb river are the movers in this middle distance maiden race Richard Hills replaced by T O'Shea which I'm not totally happy with.
525 NEWTON ABBOT Le Duc is shorter at 1.13 to place in the first 3 and an alternative for those for whom the above 2 market movers and middle distance race type is offputting.
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