Friday, 29 May 2009

30/5

Birkside was not beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race and placed at 1.28 (won in fact) -1.20 at the off. A great probability bet. 2of the maidens yesterday unplaced at odds on. It just goes to show that it is very much russian roulette with these maidens who are odds on shots and apparent good things not only for the place but for the win too
Today I am going to start with the footy as there are the usual opportunities for a Saturday and these are not time sensitive..
15:00 Rangers vs Falkirk 2/7
They win this, they have the double and can rub Celtic's noses in it.Looking at form is not really worthwhile for one off Cup Finals Top v bottom of the league here and Rangers completed the double over them this season.
The fact they are going for the double could be reason enough to back perhaps?

16:00 Legia Warsaw vs Ruch Chorzów 1/4
16:00 Wisła Kraków vs Śląsk Wrocław 1/5

2 polish shorties both at home.
Legia Warsaw have a home record of 11-3-0 (W-D-L)
Ruch Chorzow have an away record of 3-4-7 (W-D-L)
Last 5 head to heads have been under 1.5 goals.
looking at home and away form, the differences between the teams does not lead me to believe the home team should be 1/4

Home team have a home record of 12-1-1 (W-D-L)
Away team have an away record of 3-8-3 (W-D-L)
Wisla have drawn 1 and won 6 of last 7, scoring 8 in last 2 matches
3 wins and 1 draw in last 7 away for away side is not bad, but I don't think they have met a team of Wisla's capabilities.
Looks the better of the Polish games to me

20:00 St Etienne vs Valenciennes 4/11
11th versus 18th in the league BUT the 4/11 side are the ones 18th in the league! BUT they NEED desparately to win to avoid relegation. Valenciennes have nothing to play for and seem to be away draw specialists with 10 away draws which is just what St Etienne need ......NOT!
The 4/11 then must be an INCENTIVE bet I think.
Not a game I can place any faith in at all given the above.

Most of the matches left don't seem to involve teams with any incentive to win, their prospective league positions meaning nothing much

FA CUP FINAL
Well the consensus among many is for under 2.5 goals in this game.
Under 2.5 goals is 1.62
Under 3.5 goals is 1.25 which is relative to the average place only bet

The under 3.5 goals certainly gives some leeway regarding trading and the buffer of both teams having to score 4 goals in the game.
Head to heads in the league have been 0-0 which is very encouraging for unders backers.



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