Key art 2nd in a 5 horse race with 2 outsiders paying 2 places
SIMPLE PROBABILITY!
Did you notice Reignier's run 25/1 in the betting forecast - opens up 4/1 and wins at 7.00 on Betfair
Now you can use this as a great template for the 16/1 system A serious bet on that on throughout the morning manifested in its opening price
WINNING RUN OF 19 SO FAR SO KEEP CLICKING THOSE ADS!
200 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Talimos, 15/8 Akmal, 11/2 Silvador, 7/1 Hallingdal Blue, 16/1 Straight Laced, 20/1 Takelli, Tuppenny Piece, 25/1 Warrior Conquest, 33/1 Giant Sequoia, Tesserae, 66/1 Little Sark, 100/1 Roman The Emperor.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Akmal sets the standard but TALIMOS isn't far behind him on the figures and looks open to the greater improvement after shaping well behind a fairly useful sort on his Salisbury debut. Silvador is another to consider.[SB] |
As with yesterday the maidens are coming thick and fast, and they bring the accompanying problems of debutants, 2 year olds, horses unraces for 6 + months
Yes, makes my job really easy!
Here we have 3 against the field - only 4 are under 25/1 1.26 , 1.27 , 1.48 the front 3 to place
Fav has only had one run. Akmal has had 4 runs so has growing experience which is important
225 KELSO
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An uncompetitive event in which recent winner Catch Bob may prove best of those with previous hurdle experience. However he's vulnerable under his penalty and the one that appeals most is progressive Flat racer ANY GIVEN DAY, who is the type to do well in this sphere for his new stable. [RY] |
4 horses under 25/1 mus be the ones to concentrate on in this novices hurdle
Catch Bob the one with hurdling experience but priced exacly the same as Any Given Day 1.23 , 1.38 , 1.59 and the next horse is 6 to place.
300 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Coq Hardi, 5/1 The Shy Man, 14/1 Stainley, 50/1 Glacial Rambler.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he's conceding 14lb all round, this should be a straightforward task for COQ HARDI, whose chase form is far superior to that of his three rivals. [RY] |
Novice chase -2 outsiders and a 1/4 fav. Probably bad price in the place market 1.11 to place is perfectly reasonable
The Shy Man is 1.16 but may get bigger as his price is a little illiquid
400 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kayf Aramis, 11/2 Sweetheart, 10/1 Isabelonabicycle, 11/1 Calculating, Cleaver, 12/1 Bold Adventure, Look To This Day, 14/1 Epsom Salts, 16/1 American Spin, 20/1 Ned Ludd, 25/1 Takafu.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KAYF ARAMIS (nap) is well ahead of the handicapper under a penalty for his York romp last week but bSweetheart isn't rated that far behind him over hurdles and could be a troublesome opponent off a mark of just 65.[PJ] |
4/9 in places AND IN A HANDICAP - what's that price about? Are all the other handicapped horses running with blindfolds on?
Guess who's on board. Yes, the last man you would want to steer a 4/9 shot in a handicap. 1.12 to place with Frank on board - only for the brave or foolhardy given this character's recent runs
510 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Miss Tango Hotel, 7/2 Visite Royale, 7/1 Aurora Sky, 8/1 Al Rakhaa, 10/1 Aphrodite´s Rock, Fantasy Land, Margarita, 11/1 So Blissful, 50/1 Baheeya.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: John Gosden has obvious prospects of enhancing his good record in this race with MISS TANGO HOTEL. The danger may be Visite Royale who may reverse juvenile form with Aurora Sky.[PJ] |
A maiden fillies race is not ideal at all. Miss Tango Hotel has had a run this year but Visite Royale has not run since November 2008. 1.33 the front 2 to place
630 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Van Ness, 9/4 Eliza Doalott, 13/2 Paradise Bay, 16/1 Benwell, Briscoe Place, Over To Joe, Primus Inter Pares, 20/1 Caraman, Crashtown Leader, Elusive Swallow, 50/1 Alpine Warrior, Fifth Column, 100/1 Good Investment.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The consistent VAN NESS capped a decent spell of form with a game Hereford win and has been found a good opportunity to follow up. Eliza Doalott is on a winning roll and rates the likely threat.[BDO] |
A very apt name for now odds on shot Eliza Doalott. Back to a resounding success under rules after winning 3 on the bounce in point to points.
Eliza 5/6 and Van Ness 9/4 is the danger
1.48 and 1.22
650 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Leac An Scail, 7/2 Black Beauty, Shannon Springs, 4/1 Pacha D´Oudairies, 6/1 Raslan, 8/1 Sandhurst, 33/1 Paul Superstar, 50/1 Elbow Lane, Twocute, 66/1 Tiger Ted, 100/1 Lucky Eric, Which Alice, 200/1 Corax, Yes Ses Les.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An above-average beginners' chase for the time of year. Pacha D'Oudairies has the highest hurdle rating and should step up on his chasing debut second, but LEAC AN SCAIL's form over fences is more solid and there should be better to come now he is back up in distance. Shannon Springs may be the pick of the others |
6 horses in this beginners chase are the only ones under 50/1 . If we can be so bold as to immediately discount the remaining 8 runners ,we end up with what?
A 50/50 race! Prices range from 1.62 to 2.58 for the front 6 to place
This is one of those races to return to because the market is illiquid and a fav might appear nearer the off
6 horses running for 3 places
Like Polly Mark yesterday who luckily won her race. These 6 cannot really be dismissed as the fav is 3/1 and the outsider of the 6 is 7/1.
So it's pin in paper time and hope your selection does not get beaten by 3 others.
720 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Now Listen To Me, 3/1 Right Option, 7/1 Silver Story, 10/1 Baddam, Petrus De Sormain, 14/1 Captain Crackers, 20/1 Dream In Blue, 25/1 Dashing Bach, Moderano, 33/1 High Gliding, Mistress Kaytee, 66/1 Presenting Diva, 100/1 Golden Rule, Squadron Leader.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these hold interest for the future but this may primarily concern just a couple. Now Listen To Me certainly has a race in him on the basis of his Wincanton display but preference is for RIGHT OPTION, who ran into an improver at Towcester and can go one better.[JN] |
Only 6 under 25/1 Now listen to me represents the Nicholls yard under Christian Williams ( I think Ruby is resting after he appeared at Killarney and was injured in a race which killed 2 horses)
Right Option has Rhys Flint on board and he is a jockey I like to have on my side.
Again this is not a clear cut race with a proper price gapper 1.28 and 1.57 the front 2 to place
830 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Magnum Force, 4/1 Sir Liam, 9/2 Duty Free, 12/1 Word Of Warning, 14/1 Can´t Remember, Midnite Blews, 16/1 Papa Drew, 25/1 Rolecarr, 33/1 Piccolo Pete, 100/1 Roman History.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market confidence behind Duty Free should be noted but he'll do well to topple MAGNUM FORCE (nap), who opened his account over hurdles at Down Royal recently and will find this less competitive.[BDO |
3 under 12/1 and MAgnum Force is touted by Spotlight.
Top 3 is currently 4/6 , 7/2, 6/1
1.2 , 1.41 , 2 to place the front 2 but, again, ,with 7+ hours til kick off, these are illiquid markets
850 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Cut The Lugsreilly, 5/2 Jumby Bay, 7/1 Himitas, 20/1 Fiveways, Johnny´s Way, R Craig, 25/1 Tearlach, 33/1 Alfie Brown, Boo Boo Booyakasha, Crack Of Dawn, Reefer Beefer, Saddlewood, 40/1 Powerfullbeat, 66/1 Kilton Lad.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: You don't expect much form to work on in these races but a line-up of all newcomers means some groping in the dark is required. CUT THE LUGSREILLY and Jumby Bay are the most likely to shine, given breeding, cost and connections.[JN] A fine example of a horse priced up based solely on the reputation of connections. NONE of these horses have raced before in this bumper, yet Cut the Lugsreilly is odds on in places! If we take the market as an accurate reflection (9 and let's face it there is no form and little else to weigh up the race) then there are 3 only under 25/1 in Cuts for the Nicholls stable, Jumby Bay has McCoy on board, and Himitas, at 4/1 a slight mover, has Richard johnson on board 1.25 to place FOOTBALL
AFC Champions League and you remember the debacle last time I got involved. You can't trust these teams to perform to their odds.
Looks a great match until we remember there is the small matter of a Champions League final ,and so I would suspect tevez, Messi and other European based Argies won't be playing. You'll have to do a bit of digging for team news. At to the fact this is a friendly and it becomes less appetising at a betting medium SHORTLIST 200 LINGFIELD Another maiden race BUT at least Akmal has a 3rd and a 2nd to his name in 2009. Tigh O'Shea on board, and fav at present.1.25 to place. Concerns over maiden status of the race and close proximity of Talimos who is the same odds in win and place market. 7/4 , 7/4 , 3/1 then 10/1 then 25/1 in the live market. Is it too much to hope that the front 3 are the ones fighting out the finish? talimos has only had one run, albeit a good one so again the market presumption is this run will automatically be replicted by a green horse still learning. This is why I opted for Akmal with the 4 runs ( 2 this year) behind him 225 KELSO. There are only 3 horses under 20/1 here and one of those is a novice hurdle debutant who shares favouratism with a more experienced novice hurdler Ding dong battle at the head of the market Catch Bob 5/4 and 1.25 to place Any Given Day 7/4 1.38 to place Seven is lucky 9/2 1.68 to place The place prices are appealing and ,if getting involved we are automatically assuming that it is these 3 who will be at the business end ,and thus we can discount readily he 11 remaining horses 300 KELSO - one of those races where the bookie has done the job for you.Coq Hardi is 1/4 to win in a 4 horse race and a perfectly reasonable 1.11 to place given the following MARKET 1/5 9/2 20/1 66/1 The Shy Man is 9/2 and may be of interest for those expecting the outsiders to play not part, and the front 2 NOT to fall, unseat or get pulled up 1.3 for the Shy MAn is a big price Choc Thornton on the fav is a plus | ||||||||||
630 SEDGtaken by the 5/6 in the live market and this early on for Eliza Dooalot who is 1.22 to place in his hunter chase. Looks to concern her and Van Ness
650 WORC
A very interesting race with only 6 under 50/1
Surely a race for these 6 running for 3 places
50/50 shot
I cannot really ( nor am I willing to) put up a horse in this race given the market has not settled both with bookiess and betfair ,suffice o say you'll get some excellent odds for a 50/50 bet here
830 SEDG
Magnum force appeals today 1.2 to place - maybe I am remembering its last run subconsciously but I am drawn to this horse
ONE A DAY
A very difficult day today with a lot of top heavy market and an automatic assumption ( if we get involved) that these 3-4 market leaders will magically be the ones fighting it out at the end of the race. Very rarely does this occur, especially over jumps
We have a fall back hopefully in Coq Hardi at 1.1 to place in the 300 KELSO - 2 outsiders in a 4 horse race and 2 places. He stays upright he places.
Akmal in the 200 LINGFIELD has progressed with the sep up to middle distances and is in one of those races alluded to above. Mrket is 7/4, 7/4, 3/1 and 10/1 and 33/1 bar.
Of the 2 7/4 shots, Akmal has the experience and would be preferred.
Concern this is a middle distance maiden but 1.25 is a reasonable bet
SO ONE A DAY - Coq Hardi at 1.1 to place is THE BEST opportunity from a probability perspective given it is a 4 horse race, 2 outsiders, 1/4 fav and Choc Thornton.
Officially ( and on the records when I tally up ) he's my one, but I am also going to try Akmal as my unofficial additional bet today in the hope this ends up a 4 horse race and Akmal does NOT find 3 horses to beat him. 1.25 is much better odds of course
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