Sunday 10 May 2009

10/5

Perfection! 5 RUNNER race, 2 outsiders, 3 places. The 2 outsiders were unplaced and Bouvardia won at a massive 1.21 ( considering!)

The clicks yesterday suddenly returned to the volume I expected, and I hope Friday was just a blip. It costs you NOWT but 10 seconds of your time to click an ad and be done! No need to even read the webpage, just click and go back to the blog. So please continue. Yesterday took me 2+ hours in total !

200 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Factotum, 5/2 China Gold, 5/1 Monterrico, 7/1 Risk, 16/1 Freddy´s Star, 20/1 Daring Origyn, Dream In Blue, Tribe, 25/1 Marley Roca, 33/1 Heronway, 100/1 Alwaysablue, Aquarian Dancer, Montevetro, Nishnash, Strong Market,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Monterrico was way too good for FACTOTUM (nap) at Market Rasen but the latter left that form behind when finishing with real purpose to claim third in a better race than this at Kempton and there's good reason to believe Jonjo O'Neill's charge can step up again. China Gold may pose most problems for the selection.[AWJ]

McCoy and Choc head the market. FActotum odds on and CHina remains around 5/2
Tribe now 10/1 could be a market mover. There are 5 under 14/1 who should be the point of focus.
Who to chose? McCoy on Factotum or Choc Thornton for Alan King on China Gold?
6 of the 14 remaining are 50/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted 1.23 and 1.41 the front 2 to place

220 STHl
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Hills Of Aran, 9/2 Cold Harbour, 8/1 Fighting Chance, 10/1 Chevy To The Levy, 25/1 Back To Bills, 33/1 An Fear Liath, 50/1 Southern Bazaar, The Artful Fox, Which Alice,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Smart hurdler HILLS OF ARAN may never scale the same heights as a chaser but, even on the moderate form he's shown so fair over fences, he's clear form pick in this company and he's capable of doing better now he's jumping off a sound surface. Cold Harbour is the one most likely to oblige if Hills of Aran doesn't come up to scratch.[DH]

Only 4 under 40/1 and 3 places. Hills of Aran remains strong at the head of the market 1.14 to place -I reiterate - he doesnt fall, get pulled up or unseat and he must have a great chance of placing

225 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Emperor Claudius, 7/2 Love Lockdown, 4/1 Marcus Galerius, 5/1 , 7/1 Lisselan Princess, 12/1 Paydaar, Sharp Steel, 14/1 Bangathelatch, Tspec, 16/1 Justaroundmidnight.

Aiden OBrien maiden debutants are usually better for the run. Currently 7/4, I wouldn't be on just yet. Impeccably bred as per usual

Ruby at Killarney today might be worth the trip down - fav in the 1st but a maiden hurdle means Ill leave that race alone

240 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wade Farm Billy, 9/2 Rampant Ronnie, Shanafarahan, 9/1 Oberlin, 10/1 Miss Cruisecontrol, Venir Rouge, 14/1 Bridge Of Fermoy, 20/1 Jeczmien, 25/1 Dawn Wind, 33/1 Adams Legacy, Just Dennis, 40/1 How Realee.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WADE FARM BILLY has been found a fair opportunity to open his account unless one of the newcomers to hurdling produces some fireworks.[PJ]

Fav odds on but a lot of newcomers , as Spotlight says, who could be anything.
Only 3 horses under double figure odds 1.14 to place

300 LONGCHAMP
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There seems little point trying to find one to topple FANTASIA, as she made by far the most impressive reappearance this season of these, and should gallop her rivals into submission unless it turns into a tactical affair

She's back - Fantasia - price gapper - Dettori on board - "difficult to beat" but ? over the draw 1.21 to place because this is the cream of the crop.

300 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Postmaster, 11/4 Coq Hardi, 4/1 King Jack, 13/2 Prince Vector, 9/1 Irish Guard, 14/1 Poseidon´s Secret, The Good Guy,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tony McCoy has a strike-rate of over 40% for Evan Williams in recent seasons and the consistent POSTMASTER, who shaped encouragingly on his chasing debut last time, makes plenty of appeal. Coq Hardi and King Jack are feared most.[SB]

Original 9 runner but 2 "doubtfuls" so possibly Betfair only paying out 2 places. IF 3 places then Postmaster may interest here - a string of 2nds and McCoy Only 2 places as I suspected

340 PLUM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Treaty Flyer, 4/1 Perlon, 9/2 Capo Di Capi, 6/1 Beverly Hill Billy, 8/1 Wondersobright, 12/1 Highland Homestead, 33/1 Benitez, Sakenos, 50/1 Beyond The Pole, It´s Basil, Mythical Air, The Slider.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TREATY FLYER (nap) has found this a profitable level for her recently and has good hat-trick claims. Perlon and Capo Di Capi are feared most.[RA]

3rd fav a non runner makes life easier. Only 4 under 10/1
Fav oddson seeking a hatrick. 5 runner race with the rest 25/1 or bigger, and hence, barring an above average performance from the perceived outsider, these 5 should contest the 3 places
1.18 to place
355 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Fame And Glory, 6/4 Mourayan, 5/1 Fergus McIver, 10/1 Hail Caesar, 20/1 Liszt, 25/1 Tarankali, 33/1 Loch Long.

I mentioned potential upsets in these derby trials and yesterday Age of Aquarius held on by a neck from a 16/1 shot in the Derby trial in England.
Here we have an apparent 2 runner race between Fame and Mourayan, But Aiden OBrien has horses in Hail Caesar and Liszt and I wouldnt put it past either of these 2 surprising.
No involvement here for me despite the apparent clear cut nature of the race at first glance

525 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Mad About You, 4/1 Three Rocks, 9/2 Lord Admiral, 5/1 Beach Bunny, Summit Surge, 6/1 Red Rock Canyon, 8/1 Windsor Palace, 20/1 Mourinho.

8 runners is great- 2 clear outsiders and a short priced fav in Mad about you. Weld/Smullen combo I put up last time and she did the business coming 2nd.
Are 3 horses going to beat MAd about you? Thats the question 1.32 to place

FOOTY
13:30 Man Utd vs Man City 1/3 - 1.36 to win. 1.22 over 1.5 goals -very enticing - head to heads 1-0 loss to city. Could be tight or have United really come into form ?
14:00 Shakhtar vs Arsenal Kharkiv 1/10
16:00 Slavia Prague vs Ceska Budejovice 1/4
16:00 Dynamo Kiev vs Tavria Simeeropol 1/4
18:00 Barcelona vs Villarreal 1/3 - only lost one at home and ALL home games have been over 1.5 goals - 1.17


SHORTLIST
200 UTTOXETER- I am taken by the confidence for Factotum 5/6 presently. 1.23 to palce is a nice price relative to the usual prices.
NEGATIVES - close proximity of China Gold
14 runners - 5 at 100/1 or bigger - 2 at 40/1 and 50/1 reduce the competitive field by half

220 STHL
Hills of Aran 1.14 to place
9 runner race - 3 at 66/1 or bigger - 2 at 33/1 leaves ONLY 4 HORSES UNDER 33/1
"hard to oppose" - probability wise must have an outstanding chance of placing if, as ever, not falling, unseating, or being pulled up. Clearly question marks regarding chasing ability versus hurdle ability but I suppose weakness of the opposition should make up for any faults

300 LONGCHAMP
Fantasia at 1.21 - Hmmm! Good draw from what I've read and a very competitive field as expected against the best French fillies - no real collateral form of course to tie the horses in .

340 PLUMPTON
5 horses only under 33/1 .Treaaty flyer remains odds on , on a hatrick.1.18 to place. Wins have been in sellers and claimers -this is another claimer

525 LEOP - Mad about you returns as short priced fav. 1.32 to place signifies that the horse faces another top class competitive field.Not run on good ground recently -last run on good in 2008 saw an 8th place. Good form has been in soft and heavy ground - the question is -has the horse not run on good ground simply because the races she was entered into were on days the ground was coincidentally soft and heavy
Or is the horse not a good ground performer? Only the trainer can tell us. Looking at the form though, its encouraging to see that she ran well in heavy to which she was not suited, so will this good ground prove enough for us to ensure the horse places?

600 BARCA V VILLAREAL - over 1.5 goals at 1.17 is enticing.

ONE A DAY

220 SHTL - Hills of aran at 1.14 looks to be in the best probability race of the day -only 4 horses under 40/1 should help keep the competitive field down, and if not unseating, falling or beting pulled up, looks to have a great place only chance with 3 places
Slight risk that chasing form has been poor, but ground was heavy in those races and at 1/2 the market expects better ground and weaker opposition than hes been tackling ( class 1 and 2 recently over hurdles) to show him in his true light

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