Forgotten voice won well under Shane Kelly - a multiple handicap winner now with 3 on the bounce, he will find it increasingly difficult with added weight to continue that run - I'm just glad he won so cosily yesterday.
Infact, everything mentioned bar Splurge ,placed yesterday, and even then, I mentioned Ask the master who eventually won at 11/2! The Aiden O'Brien horses look to be improving after an initial run in maidens and tend to winious , or go very close, in their 2nd runs. All of the Curragh horses places yesterday but the heavy ground was offputting.
The ultra safe bets were either Taarab or African cheetah and they finished 1-2 in the 445 Newcastle.
Starting at 11am today - first race off at 210pm. The ideal is to start an hour before the first race in order to see the day's non runners which could provide outstanding place only opportunities so I'm at a slight disadvantage
240 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Made To Ransom, 9/4 Game Stalker, 7/2 Decision, 10/1 Giant Sequoia, 14/1 Heart Of Tuscany, 20/1 Pallaton, 25/1 I´m In The Pink, 40/1 Aspirational, Little Sark, 50/1 Michael Laskey, 100/1 Smart Tazz, 150/1 Hill Of Clare.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Game Stalker is an intriguing newcomer but MADE TO RANSOM's third to Twice Over in a hot Newmarket maiden as a juvenile is highly respectable form in the context of this event and it's interesting that connections have persevered with him. Positive market signals would be particularly significant.[SB]
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Game Stalker is an intriguing newcomer but MADE TO RANSOM's third to Twice Over in a hot Newmarket maiden as a juvenile is highly respectable form in the context of this event and it's interesting that connections have persevered with him. Positive market signals would be particularly significant.[SB]
Fav now odds on in places in what looks,. at first glance. to be a 3 horse race. BUT Heart of Tuscany (10/1) and Pallaton (12/1) possible market movers in what is, after all, a maiden race.
A single run from the fav again and we're seeing this a lot - extreme confidence based solely on one run for these inexperienced horses
1.22 to place
300 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Royal Dignitary, 7/2 Fools Gold, 5/1 Moonlight Man, 6/1 If You Knew Suzy, 10/1 Bajan Pride, 25/1 Brother Barry, Truly Divine, 33/1 Sparky Vixen, 66/1 Bertie Boo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROYAL DIGNITARY (nap) goes well here and despite conceding weight all round, ought to have too much class for these.[GN]
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROYAL DIGNITARY (nap) goes well here and despite conceding weight all round, ought to have too much class for these.[GN]
Included as he comes under my "hard to beat system" -Spotlight says "has by some way the highest official rating of these and sure to take all the beating despite top weight"
8th last time out ina class 4 to, guess who? - Forgotten voice who won for the 2nd time this year yesterday. Currently 8/11 -this 9 runner race sees 3 horses at 33/1 or bigger who can hopefully be discounted.
Concenrs that this is a claimer and shock results are well known in claimers, and also giving weight to all other horses. Still, the market, at time of writing, is favourable 1.21 to place
320 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Atlantic Coast, 5/2 Crashtown Hall, 7/1 Aspiring Actor, 20/1 Shergill, Wherrimon, 50/1 Aviemore, 100/1 Bring On The Bling.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Crashtown Hall looks up against it having to concede weight to ATLANTIC COAST (nap), who encounters fast ground for the first time as a hurdler and should improve for it.[AWJ]
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Crashtown Hall looks up against it having to concede weight to ATLANTIC COAST (nap), who encounters fast ground for the first time as a hurdler and should improve for it.[AWJ]
Only 7 runners mean only 2 places, and included because 2 horses are priced 66/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 5, 2 of whom will place
Front 2 are the horses for money here - Wherrimon is 14/1 though - could be a market mover? 1.23 to place
350 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 No Panic, 6/1 Badger, 10/1 Pelo Du Bief, 20/1 Finnegans Rainbow.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A non-event from a punting perspective as NO PANIC is streets ahead in terms of ability but has yet to convince over fences, so is one risky proposition at such prohibitive odds. Badger looks second best.[
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A non-event from a punting perspective as NO PANIC is streets ahead in terms of ability but has yet to convince over fences, so is one risky proposition at such prohibitive odds. Badger looks second best.[
Again, never ignore the obvious as the bookies have done all the work for you. Concern that Pelo de Bief is 5/1 in places and could be a market mover.
Unseated rider last time, but Peter Bowen has secured Tony McCoy who will hopefully do a "Hold em" and win comfortably.
3 miles is a long way though for a horse still with a few question marks over his jumping. With one horse though at 25/1 and 2 places, he only has to 1) NOT fall and 2) beat one horse to place 1.18 to place
735 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Lady Pilot, 4/1 Tusculum, 8/1 Spiritonthemount, Toboggan Lady, 10/1 Al Azy, Aleron, Bijou Dan, 14/1 Harcas, Its Moon, Wulimaster, 20/1 River Danube, Thunderwing, 25/1 Coronado´s Gold, Hunting Haze, 33/1 Josh You Are.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see how Tusculum goes in the betting but LADY PILOT (nap) could also be well treated as she has made further improvement over hurdles since winning off 5lb higher at Wolverhampton last November and is not exposed in turf staying handicaps.[AC]
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see how Tusculum goes in the betting but LADY PILOT (nap) could also be well treated as she has made further improvement over hurdles since winning off 5lb higher at Wolverhampton last November and is not exposed in turf staying handicaps.[AC]
Barney Curley landed a monster gamble on Tusculum last time out ( keep the horse losing - handicap makr tumbles 50lbs and VOILA! a nice punt) Now 2/1 so worth keeping an eye on but looks like Barney did the business last time 1.62 to place
FOOTBALL
BEcause of the generally poor quality of selections today, Are there any football one a dayers in their stead?
1/5 for the away side and I saw the Shanghai Armed forces before who got spanked by Gambo Osaka. This si probably the Asian Champiosn League and the SAF are quite shocking.
Against Neuchatel recently, Young Boys could NOT score - have won all their home matches bar the 0-0 mentioned. Vaduz are at the base of the Swiss league and have lost all of their away games BUT beat Young Boys 3-1 in their most recent encounter. Have lost generally by 2 clear goals. Young Boys were similarly short against Neuchatel and couldn't finish!
Home team have lost 11 at home, Steaua are coming off the back of a 5-0 home win but away they have won 2, lost 2 and drawn one. The wins have been unspectacular 1-0's and in a recent cup game with Gloris at home, they won 1-0 too. Steaua are top of the league - Gloria are 11th
SHORTLIST
1230 sees the Singapore Armed Forces play Shanghai and the home team are 10/1 to win. 1.29 for the away side in this Asian Champions League game. Looks a great bet to me with ther home side pretty hopeless
300 STHL - Royal Dignitary at 1.21 has a reasonable chance of placing albeit in a claimer
350 FAKENHAM - 1.18 for an AP McCoy ridden 4/11 shot to place is too big to dismiss and No Panic is those odds. Slight question mark about the horse unseating rider last time out and the move for PAlo de Bief - could be a market mover expected to run above expectation today and thus threaten No Panic 's ability to place?
One horse at 25/1 should not be involved.
He stays upright, he places but it's going to be a long 3 miles!
ONE A DAY
In a very poor day, I am taken by the 1230 kick off of Singapore Armed Forces V Shanghai. The ideal bet for me is the under 1.5 goals at 1.16 - the market is not very liquid.
The alternative is a straight win only bet at 1.3 on Shanghai . Worth a risk although this football is not top quality, I did see SAF before and they were shocking against Kashima Antlers -click on the image below to see the illiquid 1.5 goals markets - ideal is to trade the match as its in running or just leave and hope we get the score we want
350 FAKENHAM - is fraught with danger given the horse unseated rider last time, but faith in McCoy to keep him upright and get him placed. 1.18 is worth a risk although this NOT a rock solid bet
We are betting on the horse not unseating/falling or being pulled up. Palo de Bief is also a market mover which is a concern. So it's fingers crossed
We are betting on the horse not unseating/falling or being pulled up. Palo de Bief is also a market mover which is a concern. So it's fingers crossed
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