.In fact, again, all shortlisters placed, most noticeably, Noticeable by 17 lengths.
The Toon Army drew at half time and won in full time so the lay of the Toon half time/full time at 3.8 came good.
As you saw yesterday, the later the better so I'll be doing a foundation now and then look for races like Six Wives' yesterday where late non runners help probability
200 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Noodles Blue Boy, 4/1 Billy Beetroot, You Avin A Laugh, 7/1 Fashion Icon, Simple Rhythm, 10/1 Madame Jourdain, Silent Treatment, 20/1 Chimbonda, Waltzing Buddy, 33/1 Chipolini, Time Loup, 66/1 April Lady, Future Gem, Marygate,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent gallop on the cards and things could pan out nicely for C&D winner NOODLES BLUE BOY, who should be suited by the drop in trip and in grade, has a fine chance at the weights and is ideally berthed for a prominent racer in box 14. [RY] |
Billy Beetroot has been a place only selection previously and is consistently placed but the market looks competitive at the head. This is now a seller for the horse 1.49 to place
210 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Al Rakhaa, 11/4 Celestial Dream, 7/2 Cleisthenes, 8/1 Minnola, 11/1 Blackwater Fort, 16/1 Rare Bet, 25/1 Madhal, State Function, 33/1 Lois Darlin, Tightrope.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of those with experience have achieved anything out of the ordinary, though Celestial Dream appeals as likely to do better this term. AL RAKHAA, whose sales price rose sharply to 150,000gns as a 2yo, is an interesting newcomer for a yard that's 3-8 here in recent seasons. Cleisthenes is another first-timer to monitor closely in the betting.[SB] |
Fav an important non runner and near market principles Celestial and Cleis could be the beneficiaries.Yet again the new fav hasn't run for nearly half a year, and this is a maiden. It's been pretty much hit and miss with these short priced returnees this term
Indeed ,as we saw with Farmer Giles's race, newcomers can be a pain! 1.22 and 1.31 the front 2 to place
230 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Dr Jameson, 7/1 George Adamson, 8/1 Aldaado, Catch Key, 10/1 Steel Trade, 12/1 Poppet´s Lovein, 14/1 Fuzzy Cat, 20/1 Kentucky Lakes, 25/1 Liberty Lodge, 40/1 Fifer.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are a couple of newcomers to check out but it looks as if DR JAMESON, easily the most experienced of these, has been found a fine chance to get off the mark. Catch Key may be the chief danger among the others that have raced.[RA] |
Big price gapper here, even bigger in the live market.
Another maiden race. Has had the one race in April 2009 since last one in October 2008. Very confident market wise but last race the horse was 3rd of 6 (hence unplaced)
Paul Hannigan has ridden the horse regularly which is a bonus 1.09 to place
350 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Mirrored, 9/2 Royal Executioner, 5/1 Maxwell Hawke, Mister Dee Bee, 10/1 Gaily Noble, 11/1 Yellow Printer, 14/1 Roly Boy, 20/1 Inheritor, 25/1 Geneva Geyser.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MIRRORED (nap) won decisively on his handicap debut at Kempton last month and, with the second having scored again since, looks to have strong claims even as that form stands off today's 6lb higher mark. He can win again, with Royal Executioner preferred to Maxwell Hawke as the main danger. [MCu] |
First 3 are non runners - remaining horse under 10/1 -Mister Dee Bee - is default fav - 6 runners and hopefully 3 places but the new market does underlie the competitive nature of this handicap
Those with glass half full will note any horse has 3 to beat to place
Yes still 3 places and 6 runners - so it's 50/50 chance that any horse will place
Mister Dee Bee is 1.45 to place
420 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Roman Glory, 5/2 Standpoint, 8/1 Falcon Rock, 10/1 Doc Jones, 16/1 Inside Trade, 20/1 Bertie´s Birthday, 25/1 Love In The Park, 33/1 Nouailhas, 40/1 Plaka, 50/1 Paul´s Pet, 66/1 Just Oscar.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROMAN GLORY has failed twice as a short-priced favourite already but he still has to be the choice as last season's form - even before his improved run in the Racing Post Trophy on his final start - gives him very strong claims in this company. Standpoint is next best. [MCu] |
Only 4 under 33/1 and only 3 under 14/1. Roman Glory has NOT had a recent run and has my close show biz pal Frank on board. 1.09 and 1.24 to place.
1.09 for Frank to place - NO TA!
Standpoint has had the recent run which I like to see, and his 2nd this season looks good, along with Ryan Moore on board.
600 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Call Me A Legend, 9/2 Ambrose Princess, 6/1 Candle, 13/2 Ski, 20/1 Blush Tone, 33/1 Alchacun, 40/1 Saffron Spring, 66/1 Never Know, 100/1 On Oath.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ambrose Princess heads the trio of possible dangers to CALL ME A LEGEND, who ought to be able to concede the weight having proved herself on quickish ground last time.[JN] |
Choc onboard the fav.
9 runners
2 at 100/1
1 at 66/1
1 at 50/1
Only 3 under 10/1 Fav is odds on shot but has a lot of weight . 1.12 to place
640 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Aggie´s Lad, 9/4 Peplum, 11/2 Field Commander, 7/1 The Gloves Are Off, 10/1 Kirbybroguelantern, Shake The Bottle, 16/1 Becauseicouldntsee, 20/1 Faithful Dancer, 33/1 Garranedarragh, My Red Vic, 50/1 Miss Meehan.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AGGIE'S LAD has a good opportunity to follow up his success in a beginners' event at Fairyhouse, since it looks as though the horse that he has most to fear from is |
I'll be there tonight. Peplum a non runner should open things up for Aggies Lad. Given yesterday's non runners, this field might even lessen has the day progresses. Beautiful sunny day means the ground could firm up
9 runners now - 3 at 50/1 or bigger
The only concern is that this is Ireland ,the graveyard of the short priced horse 1.2 to place and an illiquid market
700 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Conflictofinterest, Shore Thing, 9/2 Norborne Bandit, 12/1 Captain Becket, 40/1 Knapp Bridge Boy.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHORE THING showed he could win over hurdles and is preferred to Conflictofinterest on that basis, assuming both of them handle the transition to chasing effectively.[JN] |
One outsider, McCoy on fav - 2 horse race? 1.36 and 1.24 the front 2 but very illiquid market given race ime is some 7 hours away
730 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Dais Return, 11/4 Pilgrims Lane, 7/2 Bolton Hall, 10/1 Norwest, 20/1 Ballygulleen, 25/1 Merry Terry, 33/1 Marquee, 50/1 Karinga Magic, 66/1 Mixed Fortunes, Parisien, 100/1 Irish Promise, Miss Patchwork,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DAIS RETURN looks to be going the right way and is taken to get the better of Pilgrims Lane.[JN] |
Only 3 under 14/1 and front 3 are 5/4, 11/4, 11/4 - very tight and a biggish field 1.19, 1.45, 1.46 the front 3 to place -again market not formed
FOOTBALL
| 18:45 | Basel vs Luzern | 2/9 - not lost at home - perhaps lay Luzern who managed a draw against Zurich last time out - laying Luzern is the same as backing a 1.10 shot |
| 19:45 | Celtic vs Dundee United | 3/10 | 4/1 | 10/1 - twice drawn 2-2 this term - MUST WIN game 1.32 - laying Dundee is equivalent of 1.06 shot |
SHORTLIST
200 BEVERLEY - Billy Beetroot is niggling away at me at 1.45 as he has kept placing at 5 furlongs and is fav here. Original 15 runner race is down to 11
3 AT 50/1 OR BIGGER
Only 5 under 10/1
No blinkers today a slight concern
Good draw
Dropping in class.
230 BEVERLEY - 1.09 about Dr Jameson is stingy but I suppose tells us his chances. Big price gapper-good recent run
350 WARWICK - one for gamblers - a simple evens shot - 50/50 chance. 6 horses left and 3 will place, 3 will not place. Default to the fav then Mister Dee Bee at 1.47 to place for the red hot Hills combo.
Caution though that this is a competitive maiden= the perceived outsider at 10/1 says as much but could be worth a gamble . Will 3 horses beat this fav?
600 NA - Call me a legend is 1.12 which is very short but form of last run is rock solid. Candle might be of interest having been backed 1.4 to place?
Basel v Luzerne is of interest , home team having not lost this season (but niggle is this is a small league and the feeling is any team can beat the other on a good day) Luzerne lay would be the play here .Lay to a fixed liability to either win target profit or laying using the sake you would use to back as the fixed liability to lose
Zurich away to bottom of the league side who have been spanked away from home but contrasting form at home eg against 2nd Basel, the lost 6-0 away from home but lost only 1-0 at home, so could be a tricky one for Zurich?
ONE A DAY
230 Beverley - Dr Jameson is the solid one but at 1.09 is very short indeed in a maiden
350 WARWICK - if you wanted a gamble at bigger odds, Mister Dee Bee was the only remaining horse under 10/1 in the betting forecast and now 6 runners is provisional fav by default really. He's 1.45 which may rise in a race which really is competitive, but, as I say, take a 50/50 chance that this one is NOT beaten by 3 others to place still in the first 3
A superb probability race but no sure thing at all.
I'm going to do another update( as first race is 200pm) at 130pm because I want to really see if there are any more non runners which may help change my mind.
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