Thursday 14 May 2009

14/5

A night of enhanced bets -Man Utd 1-0 down backable at 5/2, Rangers a goal down, backable at 3.5, scored a lateish goal and price went back to 3.5 so break even , Barcelona a goal down backable at over evens and won 4-1
All shortlisters placed

150 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Entreat, 3/1 Aromatic, 9/2 Polly´s Mark, 8/1 Silken Promise, You Say I Say, 10/1 Luthien, 12/1 Jumaana, Morning Calm, 16/1 Beauchamp Xiara, 33/1 Lady Artemisia, 40/1 Rocky Heights, 50/1 Vella, 100/1 No Sting,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see if the market again prefers Entreat to You Say I Say, while progressive Polly's Mark looks sure to give it another good shot but Ribblesdale entry AROMATIC is an interesting filly for middle distances this year and her promising 2yo run has been made to look all the better recently.[PJ]

3rd fav a non runner. Only 4 under 12/1 in this maiden - some powerful stables represented

200 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Present Gesture, 3/1 Divers, 9/2 Mr Woods, 5/1 So Billiant, 6/1 Winning Counsel, 12/1 Fool´s Wildcat, 100/1 Hurricane Warning.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mr Woods could take plenty of catching if he's allowed his own way up front, while Divers also enters calculations, but the vote goes to PRESENT GESTURE (nap) who ran well in a decent handicap at Cheltenham last month and hasn't had many chances at this sort of trip.[SB]

3rd fav a non runner should emphasise the price gap between the front 2 and the rest of the field
only 2 places though and only 1 real outsider

210 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Dar Re Mi, 2/1 Crystal Capella, 3/1 Changing Skies, 25/1 Princess Taylor, 100/1 Rio Guru.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a suitable starting-off point for DAR RE MI, unpenalised for her Group 3 win last summer and capable of acquitting herself well against the best of her sex, and, as she has won from the front, it is unlikely that connections will let this develop into a test of speed. Crystal Capella ended last year very much on the upgrade but this demands more conceding 4lb all round while Changing Skies could use some rain.[AC]

5 runner race and 2 outsiders who hopefully can be discounted in this group 3 class 1 race
Frankie on fav, Ryan on 2nd fav and Frank on 3rd fav. Fav has not run since October 2008 and this has been a dilemma during all early summer flat races
Changing skies 6/1 should not pose a threat to the 2 market leaders if the prices are accurate

240 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Crowded House, 6/1 Kite Wood, 13/2 Freemantle, 8/1 Redwood, 10/1 Nehaam, 12/1 Sans Frontieres, 14/1 Black Bear Island, 16/1 Glass Harmonium, 20/1 Monitor Closely, Native Ruler.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An enthralling race packed full of lightly raced, highly promising sorts and Crowded House will need to be every bit as good as he looked in the Racing Post Trophy to justify his lofty place in the Derby betting. With Godolphin now showing signs of a resurgence their acquistion KITE WOOD, who looked such a good prospect for middle distances last autumn, can put down his marker for Epsom in a race to savour.[AC]

Headline horse Crowded House is a price gapper in this Group 2 race and must, by default, be respected -I see my old pal is on board which, ahem, fills me with confidence - again not run since October 2008 -this really is a competitive field too

300 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Lord Lansdown, 7/2 Essifer, 9/2 Arturo Uno, 13/2 Seven Is Lucky, 12/1 Oscar´s Emerald, 20/1 Putitawayforayear, 33/1 Mr McGonagle, 66/1 Athollbrose, 100/1 Theatre Rights.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LORD LANSDOWN doesn't leave the strong impression he wants a drop to 2m but he may get away with it at this level as he has a decent chance on what he's achieved over hurdles and promises to be even better as a chaser.[SB]

Another fav for trainer Gordon Elliott whose shorties well, fell short yesterday
3 horses are 100/1 or bigger
Only 4 horses under 16/1

325 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Shadow Bay, 11/2 Special Cuvee, 6/1 Taste Of Honey, 7/1 Danies Boy, 8/1 Swiss Art, 10/1 Swans A Swimming, 12/1 Cognac Boy, Countess Zara, 16/1 Louidor, Miss Kadee, MrFlannegan, 20/1 Inside Trade, Steamer, 33/1 Abhainn, Cwmni, 50/1 Benetti, Kamanja.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: bShadow Bay, Special Cuvee, Taste Of Honey and Swiss Art at least know how to win and are all well drawn, but preference is for DANIES BOY, who has shaped well enough in maidens to suggest he could be hard to beat at this level.[SM]

Danies Boy 2/1 and well fancied it would seem in this claimer

335 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Eddie Dowling, 4/1 Jordan´s Light, Knocklayde Rose, 5/1 Shipboard Romance, 10/1 Red Seven, 12/1 Cherri Fosfate, 25/1 Princess Of Aeneas, 33/1 Spare Days.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EDDIE DOWLING looks the pick of the weights on the balance of his form dropped to a claimer. Fellow Irish raiders Knocklayde Rose and Cherri Fosfate also haven't had many chances over hurdles and may be capable of making an impact at this level.[SB]

8 runners down to 7 and Eddie Dowling remains strong at time of writing

420 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Beethoven, 5/1 Original Dancer, 7/1 Fine Sight, Hasty, 9/1 Almadaa, 10/1 Flying Statesman, No Hubris, 14/1 Trade Secret, 33/1 Kerolad, 50/1 Tagula Pearl.


SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The pair with form look likely to fall short of the required standard and the betting should provide some valuable clues. BEETHOVEN is likely to make a bold bid to follow in the hoofprints of Marcus Andronicus who made a winning debut for Aidan O'Brien here four years ago. Original Dancer may be the one to beat.[

Price gapper here for Ballydoyle in a race where, all bar 2, are debutants so live market is key and an element in bookmaker's assessment of horses ' abilities.

525 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sergheyev, 3/1 Capo Di Capi, 7/2 North Walk, 4/1 Bet Noir, 20/1 Epidaurian King, 25/1 Bailey France, Judgement Of Error, Pistol Hill, 100/1 Star Berry.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SERGHEYEV lost the race before it began at Doncaster and was evidently expected to make the most of his relegation to claiming level given the support he attracted. With the stable also in much better form than back then, he can make amends. Capo Di Capi and North Walk may provide greater threats than Bet Noir, who looked a bit tricky last time.[AWJ]

4 under 20/1 in the betting forecast but not reflected in the live betting market. Epidaurian is now 12/1 and Bailey France is 10/1 - important market movers or has the betting forecast got it wrong?

545 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 The Hermitage, 7/4 Marosh, 12/1 Social Grace, 14/1 Audacity Of Hope, Rosedale.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to say what Marosh achieved when fourth in a Chantilly newcomers event but it would be no surprise to see him give THE HERMITAGE, who was touched off at Beverley, plenty to do.

Strong market support for the fav here in a maiden where 3 have had the one run out and 2 are debutants. Again live market is a key determinant.
Fav is a Johnston horse and his horses are characterised by their fighting spirit - head 2nd only a week or so ago is highly encouraging.

650 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ottoman Empire, 11/2 Flame Of Gibraltar, Mared, 6/1 Alhaque, 7/1 Xtra Special, 10/1 Golden Rock, 12/1 Twisted, 14/1 Danse On Wood, 16/1 Gripsholm Castle.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A highly competitive maiden race in which MARED marginally gets the nod after his eyecatching debut at Kempton. The extra distance here promises to bring about significant improvement, but there are dangers lurking everywhere and he can't be a confident selection.[GN]

Fav a price gapper of sorts - others to consider Mared and Alhaque (the latter i have backed to place successfully previously)

705 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Mcevoy, 6/1 Cheeky Lad, 14/1 Seaforde, Super Nomad, 33/1 Give Me Love, Made In France,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a penalty kick for McEVOY, who's form in both handicaps and hunter chases during the past year is way superior to what his rivals have achieved.[AWJ]

Again, in a tricky day, can we just let the bookmakers point us in the right direction?

750 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Organiz, 11/4 Kadount, 7/2 Hatsnall, 14/1 Ilikehimmac, 20/1 Hi Fi, Reflex Blue, 25/1 Bally Rainey, River Pirate, 33/1 Future To Future, 50/1 Brigadier Du Bois.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It will be disappointing if ORGANIZ cannot take advantage of what looks like an ideal opportunity. Hatsnall and Kadount are the obvious dangers.[JN]

hunter chase with 3 only under 20/1 - the ones to concentrate on? Kadount is 7/4 along with Organiz

810 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Horseford Hill, 11/8 King´s Alchemist, 6/1 Prince Of Gdansk, 25/1 Spiritwind, 100/1 Dawn At Sea, Moonlight, Simplyirresistible.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: King's Alchemist is the one to beat according to official figures but HORSEFORD HILL was a superior performer on the Flat who is still learning the ropes over hurdles and has the potential to improve his official mark of 114.[AWJ]

Only 2 places.Again 3 under 20/1

FOOTBALL
18:00 Gunnilse vs Helsingborg 8/1 17/4 1/4
Top of Swedish league away in Swedish Cup - no collateral form to speak of but the assumption is the home side are lower league
19:00 Brondby vs Randers FC 1/3 10/3 8/1
lost 1 and drawn 1 against top 3 but won the rest of their home games. beat Randers 2-0 at their place
23:30 Cruzeiro vs Univ de Chile 2/7 7/2 7/1
Copa libertadores this evening looks to be a 2nd leg game -first looks to be 2-1 to cruz

SHORTLIST
Currently 1130am so will do update nearer to 1245pm to account for any late possible non runners and market movers.
As things stand, the 705 and 810 Ludlow , 545 Nmkt, 210 and 240 York look to be the races to concentrate on
Brondby looks the best of the footy shorties at this stage

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