14/5 UPDATE

I've given it an hour or so to see if there are any further changes that can help with decision making

150 SALISBURY - Entreat and Aromatic have really hardened at the head of the market in this maiden and it would be a leap of faith to expect 2 to fill 2 of the 3 places given the race type
1,37 and 1.46 to place

210 YORK - all of the main contenders have one disadvantage - all have NOT run since October 2008
1.25 and 1.42 the front 2 to place in a race where we must have confidence in the live market given the absences. 3rd fav is 6/1 under Spencer- can we discount it?
3 horses vying for 2 places so could be worth a gamble in this probability race

240 YORK - Crowded House has a case of the Rainbow View's about him - talked up horse not run for months and in a very competitive and quality race 1.58 to place says it all

300 PERTH - a 5horse race to all intents and purposes - maiden chase and odds on Lord Lansdown 1.21 to place
3 are 50/1 or bigger 1.21 to place

325 SALIS
Danies Boy (7/1 in betting forecast) now 11/8 and strongly fancied in the market 1.39

530 GOWRAN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mark Twain, 9/4 Knight Eagle, 4/1 Anaverna, 7/1 Rigid Rock, 8/1 Lord High Admiral, 12/1 Goldarover, 14/1 Milvian Bridge, 20/1 Bobbyscot, 25/1 Harry Hunt.

lord High admiral 11/4 could be significant? - Ballydoyle 1.47 market not formed

545 NMKT - The Hermitage now 2/5 1.14 to place

650 NMKT - Ottoman empire now strong at 6/4 at the head of the market
1.28 to place

705 LUDLOW
McEvoy 1.11 to place -2 places -stays strong at the head

750 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Organiz, 11/4 Kadount, 7/2 Hatsnall, 14/1 Ilikehimmac, 20/1 Hi Fi, Reflex Blue, 25/1 Bally Rainey, River Pirate, 33/1 Future To Future, 50/1 Brigadier Du Bois.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It will be disappointing if ORGANIZ cannot take advantage of what looks like an ideal opportunity. Hatsnall and Kadount are the obvious dangers.[JN]

Exactly why I try to leave it as late as possible - kadount is a non runner
1.16 and 1.26 the front 2 to place

800 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 On Our Way, 7/2 Four Winds, 5/1 Bridge Of Gold, Patrician´s Glory, 7/1 African Art, 8/1 Sohcahtoa, 12/1 Shampagne, Yorksters Girl, 100/1 Quick Single, Rossatron.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of interest among a couple of the less experienced runners, not least Bridge Of Gold who looked a useful prospect first time up, but ON OUR WAY looks the safest bet on the balance of his form and the return to this trip will not inconvenience him. That much cannot be said with any certainty for Four Winds, and a bigger danger is probably Patrician's Glory whose new yard has a good record here.[GN]

Again 1st and 3rd are non runners - does this open this up to Four Winds who is now odds on despite 7 hours to the off - Frank on board 1.22 to place

SHORTLIST
210 YORK - looks a 3 horse race with 2 places so default to the fav under Frankie Dettori ?
Dar re mi 1.26 to place.
Absences are the concern with all of the principles so cues have to be taken from the market
300 PERTH - Lord Landsdown is 1.26 to place in what looks a 5 horse race (3 places) and 2 horses from those 5 are at 16/1 or bigger
545 NEWMARKET - The Hermitage is 1.14 to place - now 2/5 -head 2nd last time and it is always risky backing a 2 year old after only one run. Audacity of Hope has attracted support, which, for a newcomer, must be mentioned
705 LUDLOW - McEvoy - 1.11 to place is whatis "a penalty kick for McEVOY, who's form in both handicaps and hunter chases during the past year is way superior to what his rivals have achieved.[AWJ]"
A race which is " his to lose."

750 FOLKSTONE - organiz or Hatsnall? 1.18 and 1.26
Organiz has the excellent Sam Waley-Cohen on board and could find it easier now to place given Kadount, pretty much a joint fav, a non runner. Spotlight has highlighted potential weaknesses re stamina so a drop to 2 miles a benefit?
Only 2 horses under 12/1 - this is a class 6 race so unreliable horses BUT a reliable jockey

ONE A DAY
A difficult day with likely selections being one of the following

• one time out 2 year old expected to replicate automatically its last run against other 2 year olds open to improvement and debuting in a 2 the place race
• 3 horses in a 2 the place race who have not run since October 2008
• ultra short obvious candidate in a hunter chase with only 2 places so must be a confident selection to get placed and not fall
• short priced fav in a maiden chase -maiden status means he's not proven as a chaser BUT priced to run well

Quite a conundrum. No Man Utd today alas.My instincts tell me this is between Dar re Mi in the 210 York, My Hermitage in the 545 Newmarket ar 1.14 and McEvoy in the 705 Ludlow as the "bleedin OBVIOUS" selection based purely on price and Spotlight's confidence as a default selection at 1.11
Analysis of last race
"The Hermitage, a well-touted newcomer, knew her job. She helped take them along but after seeing off the attentions of Petrocelli she missed out in the final strides. She has plenty of speed and will have no difficulty going one better."
So knows her job, is a Johnston horse (tough to pass)
3 debutants though so a bit of a risk place backing this one because we don't know about the others
McEvoy is the obvious contender today and looks safer (although it is a hunter chase - but one non runner reduces the field)
Dar Me Ri is in a race at odds on with 3 likely to fight for 2 places, the 3 being him, Crystal Capella at 7/4, and Changing skies at 5/1
Going with the market , Dar me ri is odds on and 1.26 to beat one to place

CONCLUSION
I'll go with McEvoy because everything else is too niggly although I do expect the shortlisters to do the business ( at least the majority of them)
Dar me Ri is the one at the prices 1.26 will give a better return but a nearly 6 month absence and small field middle distance race is the concern but probability wise he has one to beat to place