Friday, 22 May 2009

22/5 UPDATE

200 BRIGHTON
Barzan is now 4/9 in this 7 runner 2 the place maiden. 3 horses are 20/1 or bigger.
Another conundrum race
1.19 to place is relatively big for a 4/9 shot but does reflect the race type
Looks a 4 horse race and 2 places

230 BRIGHTON
Ziggy Lee remains short priced price gapperish horse 1.62 to place should sound alarm bells that this is no sure thing

245 NEWCASTLE
Were it not for the soft ground this would be a solid selection
8 runners down to 7
Final Victory is odds on and Orthology has Frank onboard at 5/2 ( I would not bother with this one!)
1.15 to place and 3 places for Final Victory

330 NEWMARKET
Now this interests me
London Bridge 8/11 8 runners -3 at 40/1 or bigger.
Solid last time -4th place does not tell the whole story
1.13 to place

405 NEWMARKET
This is why I do an update - 8 runners now down to 6 runners
tryst 8/11 has 3 to beat to place ( as it's still 3 places on Betfair). One of the remaining 3 is 33/1
1.11 to place given the circumstances is tolerable. Will 4 from 6 horses beat this odds on shot with Ryan Mooore in the plate?

625 WEXFORD
Yankee doodle 1.05 to place - well I thought he had a chance with 2nd fav out and only 3 horses under 33/1 -far too short alas
Sublime talent is 1.45 to place and Weld/Smullen are a good combo.
Soft/Yielding ground a concern.
market tells us there is apparent deadwood in this race so gamblers may like Sublime talent for a great Irish combo
Softish ground the concern

710 STRATFORD
Classic Swain 1.09 to place and I think, and I hope you agree, that preference should be for a flat horse who will only get unplaced thanks to other horses and not the obstacles too

1.28 for Bohemians at home is reasonable enough. I have been able to keep up with Irish Premier League footie living there but I must say the quality is poor. That said, Boh's are the team to beat and a trading option perhaps tonight should they score first

ONE A DAY
So what did you come up with in the intervening period?
Me?
Well I'm drawn to London Bridge in the 33o NEWMARKETat 1.13 to place
245 NEWCASTLE -Final Victory at 1.15 looks decent enough here - negatives is the middle distance trip. 2nd fav has Spencer on board and I'm afraid I can't have this inconsistent beret wearer

405 NEWMARKET - Tryst 1.11 to place in a probability race offers us a 50/50 chance with a decent jockey on board. He would be another solid one

I'm going to go with 330 newmarket London Bridge as my one a day today solid bet but I'd like to draw your attention to the following- the 405 Newmarket, for the same price we get a race where Tryst only has 3 out of 6 horses to beat to place - one of those 3 is 33/1
Negatives - handicap debutant of sorts but current show of 1.13 is perfectly reasonable in a 50/50 race
This is effectively a 5 horse race - of those 5 remaining will 3 really beat this horse?
A bit risky given the handicap status of this race and the fact that the horse's last run was on Polytrack but it will be hard luck should he not come in the first 3 out of 6.
So 405 Newmarket Tryst for me.
Personally i will get involved in the 330 Newmarket but that is an unofficial bet as I think London Bridge looks reasonable to place in an 8 runner race having been run a short head and short head 4th last time out (ie not the conventional 4th plaxce if you know what I mean)
Good luck.
ADDENDUM
I want to encourage you to make your own minds up too. I don't want to take the responsibility for any losses incurred by you. I am only responsible for my own losses so I hope you can take my advice, weigh up the arguments, and if you fancy another horse, then place back it.
I certainly know some readers, from email correspondence, were sweet on Leocarno last night , and Magnum Force the night before and they luckily followed their choices
For example the first race of the day at Brighton has the same profile of Above Limit's race yesterday -some might like to take a risk here, others will be more taken by my other arguments.
The choice is YOURS at the end of the day. I just hope that you can see the thought processes behind my arguments and choices

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