That 8/13 looks HUGE now!
Having looked at today's card provisionally last night, it looks tricky with a lot of unappetising races
220 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Farmer Giles, 4/1 Ignatieff, 11/2 Avonrose, 6/1 Makbullet, 7/1 Orpen Arms, 12/1 Whozthecat, 25/1 Burtondale Boy, 50/1 Jupiter Fidius, Kakapuka.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FARMER GILES couldn't have gone much closer last time and can make his experience count, though newcomers Makbullet, Avonrose and Orpen Arms all have pedigrees to make them credible threats on paper and therefore worth watching closely in the betting.[PJ] |
Everybody's favourite place only jockey onboard Farmer Giles ( you know the name by now!) Ridden him twice now and a nose 2nd last time out, so seemingly no shennanigans with this horse, it would seem they actually want to win with this one - yeh I know - wierd, that!
A 9 runner race and only 3 horses sub 14/1 is encouraging
4 debutants here and firm ground - Farmer Giles is okay on good to firm - I'm guessing firm ground is not suitable for all 1.13 to place even with Frank on board exudes confidence
250 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Dream Theme, 3/1 Swinbrook, 7/2 Northern Empire, 6/1 Brut, 14/1 Mandelieu, 16/1 Strensall, Valiant Romeo, 20/1 Gelert, 25/1 Throw The Dice, 33/1 Cranworth Blaze, 40/1 Cool Fashion, Distant Vision, 66/1 Neo´s Mate, 100/1 Howards Prince.
Worth a look at I suppose with 4 under 14/1 in the ebtting forecast.
They cannot be separated though and this is a big field seller ( horses aren't put in sellers because they're the next big thing!) 1.58 , 1.47 , 1.46 and 3.75 the front 4 to place
310 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Harry Up, 9/4 Desperate Dan, 3/1 Yungaburra, 14/1 Green Lagonda, 20/1 Pepin, 25/1 Fire Up The Band, Meikle Barfil, 50/1 Rapid Flow, Wicksy Creek.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Three of these stand out at the weights and it will be very surprising if the winner is not one of them. HARRY UP (nap) can blast out from his low draw and hold Yungaburra and Desperate Dan at bay.[PSm] |
Can we, as Spotlight speciulates, concentrate oin the front 3 in the betting?
2 non runners bring the field down to 7, still hopefully 3 to place. Fav is now odds on as a consequence, and the race is really split into 2 parts. 3 horses are at 10/11, 5/2, 4/1 ( time of writing 1050am) ,4 horses at 16/1, 20/1, 50/1 and66/1
This is a claimer and I don't like these races but you can't dismiss the probability factor here
YES, 3 to place still on Betfair and 1.11 , 1.33 and 1.47 the front 3 to place
330 YARMOUTh
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Ithbaat, 4/1 Mulazem, 8/1 Luc Jordan, Prince Of Johanne, 10/1 Papyrian, 33/1 Black Stocking, Mac Wolf, 100/1 Domada, Sirjosh, Soldier Soldier, Wild By Nature, Would I Lie To You.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: bITHBAAT ought to get off the mark faced with his easiest task yet, though support for either Mulazem or Luc Jordan would be interesting in a maiden in which only Papyrian and Prince Of Johanne of the others make any appeal.[GN] |
Fav now 1/2 and looks confident from the market's perspective. The Hills combo can be trusted.
12 runners in this maiden
4 debutants
4 horses 100/1 or bigger can hopefully be dismissed
1 at 50/1 , 1 at 25/1 and 3 at 10/1
Remainder are 4/1 and 1/2
With 5 only at lower than 25/1 could be a good opportunity for the fav to at least place.
Importantly, the fav has had a run in 2009, in April 1.11 to place in an illiquid market
500 YARMOUTH
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Potentially a game of cat and mouse and though Sri Kuantan has to be respected in circumstances, it will be disappointing if a rival as progressive as FALCATIV hasn't the beating of him on these terms.[ |
Potentially fraught with danger given this is a middle distance handicap but it's all based on whether the outsider runs as a true outsider, hence reducing the field to 3, and 2 to place.
Betting forecast fav retains his odds on status at time of writing. Could be a tactical affair and given this is middle distance, a chance for jockeys to call it wrong
I only mention it here as it's a potential probability race, but outsider at currently 12/1 cannot readily be simissed at this stage 1.2 the fav to place
550 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Red Avalanche, 13/8 Crown, 5/1 Art Jewel, 14/1 Lucky Mellor.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All four are previous winners. RED AVALANCHE was impressive at Nottingham and can follow up at the expense of Crown.[AC] |
Again, like the above race, mentioned purely from a probability perspective with 2 horses at 8/1 and 25/1 1.25 and 1.27 the front 2 to place
600 TOWCESTEr
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Baron Breeze, 100/30 Upham Atom, 4/1 Right Option, 7/1 Come Out Firing, 14/1 Devon Native, 16/1 Little Lord West, Moderano, 33/1 Leader Blue, 50/1 Imstilldreaming, 100/1 Billy Smith, 200/1 Simplyirresistible.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The team behind Baron Breeze usually mean business when booking the champion (24% strike-rate for the yard) so the Irish raider looks a worthy favourite. However, RIGHT OPTION is a feasible each-way alternative with so few realistic contenders in the field and he'll stay this longer trip okay, having won over 2m on the Flat since last seen jumping.[AWJ] |
Maiden hurdle - AP on the fav
3 horses at 100/1 or bigger , 1 at 33/1 and 5 remain
Towcester has the killer hill! 1.26 to place - these later races are illiquid at the moment
700 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Noticeable, 5/2 Andijan, 9/2 Mountain Creek, 7/1 Bernabeu, 10/1 Benayoun, Super Sensation, 100/1 Glenargo, Highly Elaborate.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Andijan defends an unbeaten record at this level but hardly comes here in flying form and NOTICEABLE (nap) is a much safer option on the back of his second at Ludlow. Mountain Creek is interesting on his debut for David Pipe, especially if at all strong in the market.[AWJ] |
Straight 8, 2 at 100/1 and 3 places.
Choc on the fav 1.22 to place
SHORTLIST
220 REDCAR - 1.13 for Farmer Giles -unlike the Thomas Baines affair (starring Pierce Brosnan as Jamie Spencer) ,Farmer Giles was a nose 2nd last time and ridden to win
5 debutants and firm ground temper enthusiasm a little bit. Ignatieff I have a sneaking suspicion is a progressive sort could run well - 1.64 for him to place though is a little big
POSITIVES - 3rd in Farmer's last race ,Royal Desert, has gone on to win so that's an encouraging sign
No market moves for the debutants as I write . Race course experience for Farmer Giles too is a big plus.
Group 1 entry -trainer obviously thinks something of this horse
310 WOLVES - 7 runners - 3 only under 14/1 - 3 places
1.11 , 1.33 and 1.47 the front 3 to place ( 6/4 Harry Up, 9/4 Desperate Dan, 3/1 Yungaburra)
Dare we risk this race sollely involving these 3 at the finish? Desparate Dan, for instance boosts the prices up to 1.33 -he's a course and distance winner with placed form 511222.
2nd in a class 4 handicap last time out is encouraging given he usually plies his trade in these class 6 claimers. A consistent sort for the grade.
We must, though, place maximum faith in the ebtting forecast telling us this really should be a 3 horse race.
550 WINDSOR
The better of the 2 4runner probability races this one with the outsiders remaining at 8/1 and 20/1
The market tells us that the front 2 cannot be split - 11/10 the pair currently.
If we can dismiss the 25/1 shot ( and he must be 25/1 in a 4 runner race for a reason?) then its 3 runners and 2 places
1.26 generally for Crown and Red Avalanche to ,theoretically, beat one to place. As with the 310 Wolves, we must place maximum faith in the live market and hope these 2 are the ones fighting out the finish
700 TOWCESTER - Noticeable -1.22 to place - was 9 lengths 2nd to Treaty Flyer last time out - Treaty Flyer - highlighted in the blog - dotted up yesterday by 15 lengths.
Choc Thornton on board here who has ridden the horse regularly.
POSITIVES - recent good form - good jockey - 2 at 100/1 reduce competitive field to 6 - 3 to beat to place -
NEGATIVES - selling hurdle - Towcester
ALTERNATIVES?
LAy NEwcastle/Newcastle half time /full time at 3.8 is the equivalent of a 1.34 shot and could give us a good run for our money?
Interesting stats to back this up?
NEWCASTLE
| OPENING GOALS | Perc. |
| Team scores first | 28.57% |
| Opponent scores first | 60% |
| Leading at half-time | 8.57% |
| Losing at half-time | 40% |
ONE A DAY
Yes I'm a glutton for punishment - Frank on Farmer Giles - now odds on shot 1.14 to place in the 220 Redcar, as against the 310 Wolves, Harry up at a stingy 1.09 and Desparate Dan at 1.29 9 very enticing that!)
I am also drawn by laying NEwc/Newc half time full time in the hope of a tight edgy affair and a replication of recent head to heads 0-0
I will come back at 1pm to see if there is any market changes ( racing off at 210 - I just want to see if there are any late withdrawals, so expect an update. As things stand though I would chance Farmer Giles (yes I must have got a bang on the head - but I don't see a Thomas Baines string of races here to make me suspicious - neck 2nd last time indicative that he is trying to win) 1.14 ok - Harry Up would be the obvious one but at an obvious price of 1.09
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