Well, she demolished the men with ease! 1.50 to place was a great price.
Another enhanced bet was Bordeaux who flirted with evens when going a goal down, equalised allowing me to green up another £25(although had I left the bet I would have made £100)
Evens about a 1/4 shot with a formidable home record was excellent.
You could have exercised this strategy twice as Bordeaux went 2-1 down ,then drew 2-2 and eventually won 3-2.
So, you see, it does have some merit to it.
Why not Hamburg them? They went a goal down? BUT reading the blog, I pointed out that Koln had beaten 2 of the top 5 sides away from home. This was not as clear cut as the other 2 selections
220 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Changing Lanes, 3/1 King Cyrus, 11/2 Ortega, 6/1 Sparkling Montjeu, 8/1 Lupita, Supreme Team, 12/1 Light Entertainer, 33/1 Albert Park.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHANGING LANES has plenty going for him and he's fancied to score at the main expense of top weight King Cyrus, with Ortega perhaps best of the others.[DH] |
8 down to 7 runners. Can we discount the horses 14/1 or bigger? If so then it's 4 running for 3 places and a default bet on the fav?
Negative? Handicap hurdle
230 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Pete, 4/1 Newgate, 6/1 Skylancer, 13/2 Majorca, 8/1 Mansonn Leda, 20/1 Halfway Cut, High Standard, Liberty Seeker, 25/1 Sky Calling, 33/1 Aleemdar, Trans Sonic,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The two against the field are PETE and Newgate. With the recent rain far from certain to be in the latter's favour, preference is for Pete, who is thriving at present and escapes a penalty for last week's win at Perth, where he had more in hand than the winning margin suggests. [RY] |
Price gapper in the live market here, Pete is on a hatrick as is Newgate and we all know about winners in handicaps. BUT Pete escapes a penalty
245 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Croisultan, 6/4 Sugar Free, 5/1 Moylough Prince, 16/1 Mr Topaz.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CROISULTAN looks to have a terrific chance over a trip and surface that suits him well. |
CAution as it's soft/heavy at Navan - but a 4 runner field is down to 3 runners and 2 places. Pat Smullen on the fav. 3rd fav is provisionally 25/1 so looks a great probability race
350 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Art Trend, 11/8 Tri Nations, 7/1 Martin´s Friend, 12/1 Dr Brass, 33/1 Bridge Of Fermoy, 50/1 Gospel Spirit, 100/1 Laconicos, Would I Lie To You, 150/1 Aviemore, Chalentina.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Art Trend has the best hurdles form but he might struggle to give the weight to TRI NATIONS, who was of similar ability on the Flat and has shown enough from two tries hurdling to suggest a race of this type can go his way.[DH] |
Only 3 under 20/1
400 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Springfield Raki, 100/30 Pokanoket, 7/2 Tom´s Toybox, 8/1 Bushy Island, 14/1 Direct Approach, 16/1 Quenzo Conti, 33/1 Louis Ludwig, 40/1 Lady Rose Lewis, 50/1 Tom O´Tara,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With the otherwise interesting Tom's Toybox having been well below par in a Perth chase last time, this uncompetitive novice hurdle is best left to decent bumper performer SPRINGFIELD RAKI (nap), who was off the mark over hurdles in a C&D novice last time. [MCu] |
Only 3 under 12/1
440 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Akbabend, 9/2 Lady Luachmhar, 6/1 Albaasha, 10/1 French Applause, 12/1 Red Cadeaux, Winterfell, 16/1 Merchant Man, 20/1 Willent, 50/1 Flaming Blaze, Goswick, Knock Three Times, 100/1 Terrymene Prince, 200/1 Moon Warrior.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Albaasha is capable of better than he has shown and could go well, but AKBABEND is the one to beat, for all that he threw away a winning opportunity last time. Conditions shouldn't be a problem for him and his prominent style of racing is well suited to the round course here.[PSm] |
Odds on now this fav for the Johnston/Fanning combo and these Johnston horses are characterised by their " Thou shalt not pass" attitude when at the head of affairs.
A maiden race but a horse with plenty of runs and consecutive progresBlogger: back-lay-trade-horses-football - Create Postsive form. We have seen recently that maiden favs have been unplaced BUT by and large they have been assessed based on one run only. This horse has plenty of experience relatively speaking
FOOTBALL
| 13:00 | Augsburg vs Wehen | 4/11 |
I would not be having a play here at all
| 13:00 | Hibernian vs Celtic | 6/1 | 10/3 | 4/9 |
1 point lead at the head of the table , Rangers look go have a goal in hand after today's match.
Celtic away have won 1 (Rangers) drawn 2 and lost 2 against teams in the top 6 away from home. This includes a 2-0 defeat last time they were at Hibs.
Last 11 games have seen 5 draws and 6 wins. They must avoid a draw today and ake maximum points
4 wins, 2 losses and 3 draws in Hibs last 9 home games include that 2-0 win over Celtic.
Whenever an Old Firm team are NOT quoted at 1/3 , 1/4, 1/5 they it is usually a sign of a hard fought victory or draw with the opposition having a chance to score
| 13:30 | West Brom vs Liverpool | 11/2 | 7/2 | 4/9 |
Liverpool have scored 29 goals in their last 9 matches which really is superb.
In the last 5 matches they have scored 3+ goals.
Liverpool beat West Brom 3-0 at Anfield.
We see a recurring number "3" which might hint at the final score?
Indeed West Brom have scored 3 in 2 of their last 3 games
4 losses and 2 draws for the Baggies away in their last 6.
Against the top 4, they have lost at home 5-0, 3-0, 3-1
Expectation is for goals surely? 4/9 is not normally a price I would entertain for one a days but could offer us a chance AS LONG AS the fat spanish waiter picks his strongest side today. He may give squad team players a run out.
With West Brom needing 3 points, perhaps a neutral goals oriented bet is the call here?
| 14:00 | Silkeborg vs Lolland FA | 1/10 |
Lolland FA have an away record of 0-2-10 (W-D-L)
1/10 usually indicates a win by 3 goals.
| 14:00 | Fiorentina vs Sampdoria | 3/10 |
Won 6 and lost 1 of their last 7 so v good recent form
At home, have won all matches bar 4 ( 2 wins and 2 draws against top 3)
Samp -mid table mediocrity - nothing to play for. Have not won away to any of the top 15 sides
Samp have the ability to score goals though and have been knocking them in recently
| 14:00 | Juventus vs Atalanta | 1/4 |
Atalanta have not won away from home to any of the top 8 sides, drawing only one of those games
They have nothing to play for
Recent away form, one loss, one win and 2 draws could show they can be tight away from home, but you have to ask " what do they have to play for?"
| 15:30 | Hajduk Split vs Sibenik | 3/10 |
Sibenik have an away record of 5-2-7 (W-D-L)
3 losses on the trot for he home side and I need to see more solid form
Home record though is excellent
| 15:30 | NK Zagreb vs Croatia Sesvete | 3/10 |
Cr Sesvete Z have an away record of 2-1-12 (W-D-L)
Solid at home against an away side who are shipping some 3+ goals away per game
Looks safest of the Croatian bets
| 16:00 | Chelsea vs Blackburn | 2/7 |
Worthy favs despite this being a game where it doesn't matter to either team.
Chelsea in great form at present.
Blackburn safe
Lost to all top 4 away from home. Have lost their last 4 away from home. Nothing to play for, so the hope is Chelsea will do a professional job today in what could be their last home game?
| 16:30 | Debrecen vs MTK Budapest | 4/11 |
Debrecen have a home record of 9-3-1 (W-D-L)
MTK Budapest have an away record of 6-3-4 (W-D-L)
Away side's 2 wins and a draw recently is good.
Home side solid enough a home, but tight enough matched on the ratings at www.betdevil.com
| 17:00 | Panathinaikos vs Larissa | 1/4 |
Pana have won their last 6 at home
Larissa have won 5 and lost 1 of their last 6 away including a defeaat of Olympiakos so with that kind of form, I can't be having pana today
| 19:30 | Inter vs Siena | 1/3 |
1 win, 3 draws and a defeat in their last 5 games for Inter is not encouraging
Like Bordeaux, have NOT lost at all at home this season ( typical of Mourinho - re Chelsea!) so I expect Jose will want this fortress mentality to continue, so Siena to lay if the odds are short enough?
Siena have lost away to all of the top 11 sides
SHORTLIST
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24 in the West Brom v Liverpool game looks very appealing as long as we see a strong Liverpool side
West Brom can be laid at 7.2 which is the equivalent of a 1.15 bet, but I would side with the neutral goals bet
245 NAVAN
3 runners , 2 places and a 25/1 outsider should be easy pickings were it not for the soft/heavy going/
Highly illiquid market means I cannot guage the prices but at time of writing, Croisultan is 1.06 to back and 1.13 to lay meaning the back price might rise with market forces
440 RIPON -Akbabend is 1.17 to place.
A 13 runner race where 5 are 50/1 or bigger, 2 are 33/1, one is 20/1,
Has had a run this season and should have won and is a Johnston horse and these are reliable types.
The potential problem is softening ground which , if coupled with maiden horses with relatively little recent experience , could open the race up.
Chelsea at 1.3 look great today
ONE A DAY
The Navan race is really standout but the prices are not as I write. I would like to see Croisultan touching at least 1.10 to be involved.
As things stand, I'm going to chance over 1.5 goals in the West Brom v Liverpool match at 1.24 in the hope we see a strong Liverpool side and the kind of play that has produced 29 goals in 9 games.
Chelsea are certainly enticing at 1.3 today at home to Blackburn
Leave the horses alone for me today but I will be keeping an eye on the Mark Johnston runner in the maiden I think
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