I stumbled across this bet as I heard the score on the radio BUT did flag this team up earlier so did know the match was in running!
£6 loss for £100 gain - next time I'll make sure I place the fecking bet!
Elsewhere I thought London BRidge was done for with 3 near market leaders all well backed and him drifting. BUT he won his race.
Tryst came 2nd and yet again in a 6 horse race and 3 places, he-who-wears-a-bere Hmmm Betty concucted to get a horse out of the first 3 when a well fancied 2nd fav. Coincidence? Bad luck ? Bad horse? You decide!
On to today and heavy ground to the Curragh really has made life difficult there. It's a pity as this is the 1000 guineas meeting.
This blog has now had 10,000+ hits so someone ISN'T CLICKING AN AD! If I charged you my going rate for an hour's plus work every day, then you'd be moaning. So please click an ad
220 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Father Time, 5/2 Palavicini, 9/2 Your Old Pal, 13/2 Rendezvous, 15/2 Big Bound, 16/1 Heliodor.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FATHER TIME (nap)'s latest close third in the Lingfield Derby Trial suggests he is the clear pick here. Though he did race a bit too keenly early on then it still didn't stop him showing good form and, if reproducing that level of ability again, he is entitled to be too strong for main danger Palavicini.[MCu] |
remember what I have said about listed races? Short priced favs must be good, BUT by the same token, all horses running in a race at this grade are good!
5 runners now and the concern with Father Time is he has finished 3rd of 5 and 3rd of 7 his last 2 runs -ie unplaced.
From a sequencing perspective of course, what are the chances of him replicating another 3rd place? 1.63 to place tells you this is no gimme for 2 places
240 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Air Chief Marshal, 7/2 Wrong Answer, 4/1 Atasari, 11/2 Pilgrim Dancer, 6/1 Royal Infidelity, 7/1 This Is Real, 8/1 Corcovada, 10/1 Foolish Ambition, 12/1 Marcus Galerius, 14/1 Aisy, 25/1 Rigid Rock, 33/1 Cinnamon Tart.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AIR CHIEF MARSHAL looked a smart juvenile when stepped up in trip last time, quickening away inside the final furlong to beat today's rival Rigid Rock by eight lengths. However, that was over 7f and he drops back to the minimum trip here. Chances are he will handle that, he had shown speed when chasing home Gold Bubbles in a Leopardstown maiden over 6f on much better ground on debut, and he looks smart enough for the drop back in trip not to be an issue.\n |
Aiden O'Brien can usually be trusted with short priced favourites. BUT the head of the market is quite tight in this listed event, the fav is dropping in trip and they are all tackling heavy ground
The Air Chief was a winner on heavy last time out which is encouraging 1.24 to place
250 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Donativum, 9/2 Alyarf, 6/1 Baileys Cacao, 11/1 Captain Ramius, 12/1 Nasri, 20/1 Courageous, 25/1 Thunderous Mood.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DONATIVUM's high-profile wins here and at the Breeders' Cup at the end of last season for John Gosden make him very hard to oppose back at Listed level for this reappearance. |
Price gapper in another high quality field but the live market tells a different story - 6/4 - - 9/4 hints at favouratism for the Godolphin runner Alyarf?
High quality field= high quality opposition don't forget! Only 2 to place too 1.63 and 1.79 to place the front 2.
300 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Diamond Blade, 4/1 Fashion Icon, 11/2 Fifth Amendment, Positivity, 16/1 Badtanman, Cavitie, 33/1 Future Gem, Honey Berry, 50/1 Our Girl Ally,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DIAMOND BLADE has a handy draw back down to the minimum trip (main rivals positioned wider) and this is weaker than the Ripon maiden in which he finished third early in the month.[GW] |
I fecking hate maidens! but this fav price gapper has actually had 2 runs (both in the places ) this year and we have seen the general poor performance of those who have come back from long absences. 1.22 to place
310 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Bushranger, 5/2 Utmost Respect, 9/2 Jumbajukiba, 5/1 Snaefell, 6/1 Three Rocks, 8/1 Knot In Wood, 10/1 Georgebernardshaw, 14/1 Icelandic, 25/1 Senor Benny.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: UTMOST RESPECT has to give weight to all of his rivals, but is bang in form, and is a confident selection. |
utmost respect a strong evens favourite in the live market - significant? Spotlight likes him. BUT again a competitive race, proven by Ballydoyle representative at 16/1! 1.34 to place
340 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Desert Creek, 7/1 Fareer, Foundation Room, Set The Trend, 10/1 Good Again, Thief Of Time, 12/1 Sonning Gate, 20/1 Viva Ronaldo, 25/1 Deadly Secret, Derbaas, Isabella Grey, Markyg, 33/1 Roman Glory, 40/1 Canwinn, Cruikadyke,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Surprisingly for a race of this type, not many look to have much to offer in handicapping terms. The obvious exception is DESERT CREEK (nap), who was a decisive winner on his handicap debut at Windsor and already looks the type his trainer will develop into a Group-race performer in time. |
Heavy ground at Haydock has not stopped Desert Creek from being a price gapper in the live betting market too
Not raced on heavy ground yet and is apprentice ridden too 1.44 to place
345 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Mastercraftsman, 9/4 Delegator, 7/2 Rayeni, 7/1 Soul City, 8/1 Recharge, 14/1 Drumbeat, 25/1 Fergus McIver, 33/1 Hail Caesar, 100/1 Viceroy Of India.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It goes against the grain to reject proven Classic form, but confidence in the big two, Delegator and Mastercraftsman is lukewarm. For that reason, it may pay to side with RAYENI, who looked highly progressive in the latter part of last season and looks capable of handling conditions better than most. (AS) |
It would be all nice and sraightforward were it not for the heavy ground which raises questions about the 2 main protagonists. The beret wearer rides Delegator and the Ballydoyle string have Mastercraftsman but go to the Spotlight on both horses and you will read about ground concerns
2 horses are 50/1 and 100/1, one 33/1 which reduces the field somewhat.
If we were to take it on trust that the market has accounted for heavy ground then it is MAstercraftsman at 7/4 who they want, with Drumbeat, another Ballydoyle representative well backed early doors ( check if this is a Pricewise horse as that may be the reason)
The good thing about master Spencer today is that Delegator will be ridden to win, no pissing about trying to get a handicap mark down!! 1.33 MAster to place
400 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Step In Time, 3/1 Running Mate, 5/1 He´s Invincible, 11/2 Rumool, 14/1 Fantastic Prince, 16/1 Tiradito.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: He's Invincible and Rumool are likely looking newcomers to keep an eye on in the betting, but experience could bring Running Mate and STEP IN TIME, who may be open to greater improvement than his John Gosden-trained rival, to the fore.[FC] |
11/10 the fav and interesting because it's a MArk Johnston horse " thou shalt not pass" 1.38 to place
445 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Winged Harriet, 5/1 Dillenda, 6/1 Dalmunzie, 8/1 Josphiel, 20/1 Sleepy Valley, 25/1 Choree, 33/1 Baligha, Little Bones, 66/1 Alyseve.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There will be more convincing short-priced favourites around than WINGED HARRIET but, if she is to win a race, it will surely be this one against some ordinary fillies from a good draw |
Hopefully a fall back race incase I can't find a decent place only be or footy bet today
Now 3/10 in this maiden
2nd fav Dillenda a non runner helps the cause 1.07 to place
510 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Seaway, 9/2 Canyon Ranch, 11/2 Loch Linnhe, 9/1 Flame Of Hestia, 10/1 Baron Otto, 16/1 Roar Of The King, 25/1 Pagan Flight.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting newcomer Canyon Ranch and choicely bred filly Flame Of Hestia are both worth checking for a market move but SEAWAY will set a useful standard if able to show anything like the form he did for John Gosden in the first half of last season and is preferred.[MCu] |
Here's an example of a good opportunity at first glance UNTIL we find the fav has not run since June 2008, money for a debutants in Loch Linnhe, and only 2 places.
Frankie is staying on for the ride so is that a pointer? 1.41 to place
830 CARTMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Sambulando, 5/1 Quatro Pierji, 13/2 Blacktoft, Breeze With Ease, 12/1 Locked Inthepocket, 33/1 Stoic Leader, 66/1 Captain Ling, Marieschi, 100/1 Phoenix Nights, 150/1 Howards Dream, Tayside Mover.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAMBULANDO, handed a rating of 123 after showing plenty of promise in two starts over hurdles, can take advantage of what looks a good opportunity at this weaker level.[SB] |
Price gapper here. 2 2nd places and down in grade. Sam Thomas stays on for the ride.
4 horses are 100/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted . Of the remainder the prices are 1 /2, 5/1, 6/1, 7/1 10/1, 20/1
So a nice price gap 1.11 to place BUT very early in the day and price likely to rise
FOOTBALL
| 14:00 | Slovan Liberec vs Ceska Budejovice | 4/11 |
C Budejovic have an away record of 0-8-6 (W-D-L)
A game to avoid for me . Home team los 2 and drawn 1 of last 3 at home
Away team have drawn or lost all their recent away matches - perhaps a lay of away team?At 11.5 to lay ,it's the same as backing 1.09
But it's a game wherre a 4/11 shot does not have the form of a 4/11 shot
| 14:00 | FC OPA vs Virkia | 1/10 |
Betfair have this priced at 1.16 which is the same as a horse to place ( and with heavy ground too today!)
I'm going purely on price here - 1/10 indicates usually 3 goal win
I can't find the league to do any research so will have to place faith in the price, but 1.16 is very reasonable and 1/10 shots should NOT lose but me and Finnish 3rd division football are not happy bedfellows! Marke on betfair has zero money in it so getting £100 on means having to take v short odds
| 14:30 | Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen | 4/9 |
First against 10th. I speak about incentives. Wolfsburg NEED to win this to cement the title.It's tight up there and still not finished.
Wolfsburg have scored 13 in their last 4 games but did have an away day blip at Stuttgart where they got hammered
Have lost to Werder earlier in the season but confidence will be high after a 5-0 away win last week.
NOTE- have only won 2-1 against teams in or around Werder in the league so this I would suggest would be a good starting point regarding final score and likely close game?
Wolfsburg are leaders because they have NOT lost at home this season much like Bordeaux. In fact they have won all matches and only drawn 1 at home. Outstanding form which must instill extreme confidence
Werder have lost all bar 2 away to the top 6 sides. One draw and an impressive win at Bayern 5-2 stand out.
Beat Frankfurt away from home latest BUT had also beaten Frankfurt at home 5-0 so probably a bogie team for Frankfurt?
87% of Wolfsburg's home matches have ended over 2.5 goals
An angle in? 1.15 over 1.5 goals and 1.44 over 2.5 goals
| 20:00 | Bordeaux vs Monaco | 1/4 |
Like Wolfsburg, home form has all but given Bordeaux the French league title
Another must win game because 2nd place is 3 points away, but Bordeaux have been close against teams in Monaco's part of the league. A few 1-0's and a 1-1
Have won 10 and lost one of their last 11 games
A NOTE OF CAUTIOn - Monaco have drawn against 3 of the top 5 teams they have played away - an eye catching pattern! Marry that with the above 1-0's and 1-1's and Bordeaux may be in for a tricky evening perhaps?
Monaco's last 7 aways have seen 3 draws and 2 1-0 wins but do we simply default to Bordeaux because of their incentive to win as against Monaco who have feck all to play for
| 20:00 | Lyon vs Caen | 3/10 |
Lyon cannot win the league BUT they MUST get a European berth so this game matters and if we look at performance against lower league sides at home, expectation is for a 2-0 victory.
7 draws away from home for Caen BUT lost against all of top 5 sides away
Caen need to win this too as they are teetering on the brink of the relegation zone so this is a tricky game to call given both teams really have to win
SHORTLIST
240 CURRAGH - Air Chief Marshall is 1.24 to place. Has won on heavy ground which is encouraging given the Curragh is heavy.
Concerns that he is dropping to the minimum trip which , of course, places a completely different emphasis where previously there was an elelment of stamin, now it's simply all about speed.
Still, 4/5 with this taken into account
250 NEWMARKET - Donativum and Alyarf are 2 against the field here, 1.63 and 1.79 are BIG prices
The fav has a multiple winner and also a " hard to beat " selectionbut hasn't run since Oct 2008
Alyarf is the market mover and has had a recent run.
I am wary about the prices - glass half empty - emphasises competitive nature of the race and some doubt about the market principles
Glass half full - NICE PRICES for 2 horses form big stables with Dettori and Hills on board - 2 solid jockeys on the flat
300 CATTERICK
Diamond blade is of interest to me at 1.22 to place.Placed form this year and very well backed BUT this is a poor class maiden.
8 runners, 3 places and 3 horses at 25/1
This would be a slightly risky bet given it's a 5 furlongs but has a good draw.
345 CURRAGH - Mastercratsman is a nice 1.33 to place BUT heavy ground at the Curragh and Haydock means we should really be avoiding these venues unless he horses have won or run creditably on the ground. Neither of the 2 main ones have.
445 CATTERICK - Winged HArriet is 1.07 and does not have the most convincing profile but should place surely (famous last words !)
830 CARTMEL - Sambulando 1.11 is a bit short over jumps but price should rise and we would need to check nearer the off.
FC OPa would be a good one a day were it not for the fact there is simply no money in the market to allow a decent stake
Wolfsburg v Werder Bremen - what interests me here is the over 1.5 goals at 1.15. Those wanting a gamble might want 1.44 over 2.5 goals.
This game will be in running and should ideally be traded.
ONE A DAY
Haydock and the Curragh should ideally be left alone with the heavy ground a problem
On the horse racing front Diamond Blade for me today 300 catterick 1.22 to place
Solid bet looks to be Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg over 1.5 goals at 1.15
I may even back Wolfsburg seeking to trade after they hopefully score the first goal.
This match starts at 230 so I will be getting involved before Diamond blade runs and hope a goal has been scored within the first hald hour to allow me to trade out. If it does then no need to go to Diamond blade as my one a day will be wrapped up
ADDENDUM
A couple of bets yesterday show you that , with my ability to follow the live market, I can be flexible - ie not wait for my blog one a day BUT react if the market is extremely bullish about shortlist selections.
These screenshots ( click on the jpeg to see full screen) show you Barzan and Final Victory, 2 maybe horses yesterday. I decided to go for these BUT traded out in running, hence the green amounts next to the horses so I would have profitted if these horses placed or didn't place
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