No Panic was a non runner, and I decided that ,in a 3 horse race with an original 25/1 outsider still in the race, I went for Pelo de Bief at 1.3 to finish in the first 2, and he did, 2nd by 17 lengths - just glad the outsider was a couple of miles behind him!
Royal Dignitary placed, Young Boys scraped a 6-0 win, and Steaua Bucharest won 1-0 -analysis great on that one - something to look into -would have been a nice price for the 1-0 away win!
Today sees the start of the Chester May meeting where the DRAW IS ALL here. You can pretty much discount a majority of the field before you start, so hopefully this will help place only betting.
145 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mijas Playa, 11/4 Archers Road, 5/1 Kings Of Leo, 11/2 Star Rover, 12/1 Fratellino, 16/1 My Mandy, 20/1 Tom Folan, 33/1 Goodbye Earl,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A low draw is usually a major advantage and Newmarket runner-up MIJAS PLAYA looks capable of a bold bid in a race which her small stable likes to target. Archers Road is the form pick but will need to get the breaks from his wider stall.[FC] |
Spotlight has hinted at low draw advantage here, so who is the shortest priced low drawn horse?
Mijas Playa is fav and srawn in stall3
5 furlongs mean the draw bias will be more accentuated with less distance to account for a bad draw and less distance extending the advnatage of a low draw.
It must be noted these are 2 year olds and the front 4 have plenty of 1's and 2's
Still will the draw advantege be proven in this first race? 1.61 to place might be worth a throwaway risk?
235 BATH
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRUE RED's best run was on this course - Kate Skate held - and a return to that form should make her hard to beat in this grade. Transfixed is feared most.[FC] |
Just carrying on my "hard to beat" selections and you see the words with True Word, albeit in a 2 year old seller.
3 of the 10 runners are 50/1 or bigger, 2 are 20/1 1.63 to place
315 CHESTER
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A low draw and ability to lie up with the pace are vital in 5f handicaps round here. SOHRAAB, who ran very well on his Newbury return last month, fits the bill and he can account for the Nicholls pair Strike Up The Band and Northern Dare.[AC] |
Lowest priced with a low draw? Again 5 furlongs makes it important.
The front 3 are drawn 1,3,4 and the 2nd is a non runner. 1.85 , 1.88, 2.7 to palce the front 3
435 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Harbinger, 5/2 Calypso Bay, 5/1 Asateer, Devotion To Duty, 6/1 Changingoftheguard, 10/1 Beauchamp Xerxes, 33/1 Northern Acres, Norwegian Dancer, Una Pelota, 100/1 Jobekani, Paddy Partridge, 200/1 Annes Sound, Liberty Estelle, Silk Star.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The step up to this trip will suit HARBINGER, who looked in need of the experience when runner-up in the Wood Ditton with Beauchamp Xerxes back in fourth, and he is preferred to Calypso Bay who also acquitted himself with credit at the Craven meeting but has to start from the outside stall here |
Devotion of Duty a non runner. 3 horses are 200/1 or bigger. 3 horses are 33/1 or bigger. One horse is 14/1. Leaves just 4 horses sub double figure odds.
Will the draw be a problem over 1 mile 2 furlongs? Asateer is the shortest priced with the best draw. Harbinger is drawn in 10 but still a strong favourite albeit with only one run under his belt. Changingoftheguard is the BAllydoyle horse with a good draw, but I repeat - How much of a concern is the draw over middle distances? 1.2 to place
525 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Emerald Wilderness, 7/4 Moment Present, 4/1 Tifernati, 20/1 Amwell Brave, Magpie, 25/1 Overspin, 33/1 Edgebury, Gospel Spirit, 100/1 Chalentina, Cover Drive.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Moment Present deserves to win a race but the frustration may continue here as Alan King is still hopeful that the talented EMERALD WILDERNESS can make the grade in this discipline and, with the exception of last time (tough task anyway), he's looked as good as ever this year on the Flat.[AWJ] |
3 against the field here and best to concentrate on these. Tifernati is a non runner now which makes the price gap bigger between the front 2 and the rest of the field. Amwell Brave is the beneficiary with a price drop to 10/1 - a market mover or a reaction to the non runner - the latter I think.
The front 2 can't be split
Emerald Wilderness a Thornton /King horse BUT not run over jumps in a competitive environment. Moment PResent has hurdling experience
The first standout race for me today. 1.26 and 1.17 to place the front 2
535 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rien A Perdre, 13/2 Maranach, 9/1 Alroyal, Reflector, 11/1 Milesian King, 12/1 Enitsag, 14/1 Bonne Noel´s, Needs Time, 16/1 Gulabill, Ryeman, 25/1 Hi Fi, Iphar, 33/1 Benny Boy, 50/1 Hop Pocket.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Reflector heads the list of candidates to have shown their mettle in this event in previous years but RIEN A PERDRE (nap) has looked a classy operator this season and can follow up his Newton Abbot success.[JN] |
Successive wins in point to points and hunter chases should give this fav confidence- jockey an unknown but won in a hunter chase under him last time 1.42 to place
610 CHELTE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Trust Fund, 7/2 Distant Thunder, 10/1 Take The Stand, 12/1 Nobody Tells Me, 14/1 Merchants Friend, 16/1 Whistling Straits.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Assuming he is none the worse for his Aintree heroics, TRUST FUND is the obvious choice. Distant Thunder is the likeliest threat.[JN] |
"the one they all have to beat" so says Spotlight. Again one for record keeping - could this Hard to beat philosophy be a quick way to find placed only horses 1.3 to place
705 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Segal, 3/1 E Major, 5/1 Gizmondo, 7/1 The Snail, 10/1 Desert Lover, 14/1 Demi Beau, Elaala.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: E Major shouldn't be far away once again but SEGAL (nap) is the one to beat having done it quite nicely at Hereford and he's 4lb higher in future engagements, so the handicapper will be expecting him to win |
Another "hard to beat" but a handicap and also outsider at 14/1 shows this is competitive. 1.62 to place
720 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Brer Bear, 5/2 Noakarad De Verzee, 9/2 Hambaphambili, 7/1 James Pine, 16/1 The Baillie, 33/1 Oranger, 50/1 Royal Crystalcadou, 100/1 Triple Seven.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A repeat victory for James Pine could not be ruled out in what looks an ordinary renewal. However, BRER BEAR’s last-gasp Newbury win sets the hunter chase form standard and he looks a more complete performer than when disappointing in this race three years ago. Noakarad De Verzee similarly enters calculations if handling this bigger course better second time round.[JG] |
Hunter chase day at Cheltenham and of interest as this is an 8 runner race, the smallest field paying out 3 places. 3 horses are at 33/1 or bigger leaving 5 fighting for 3 places
The Baillie is 14/1 and I hope he can be discounted
Only 1 run for the fav since 2006 of concern! 1.29 to place
730 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Cranky Corner, 6/1 Grange Alainn, 7/1 Power Of Attorney, 8/1 Byeforthepresent, 10/1 Indian Buck, 14/1 Bob Will Fix It, Dark Arctic, Stradbally, Warhead, 16/1 Duc De Normandie, 20/1 Millyjoe, 25/1 Brennans Row, Dip The Fleece, Idontnosir, Joe The Plumber, Winter Stage, 33/1 Bleuvito, Brandy And Pep, Great Island Lady, In Franks Honour,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CRANKY CORNER will be hard to beat if making an efficient transition to hurdling |
1.35 to place -illiquid market
FOOTBALL
Rapid Bucharest 1/5
Home team Rapid Buc have a home record of 9-2-3 (W-D-L)
Away team Otopeni have an away record of 1-5-8 (W-D-L)
Away team have drawn or lost last few matches away from home
Rapid - 4 wins and a loss in last 5 home games is solid enough 1.25
Slavia Prague 2/9 - won 11 and drawn 2 at home this season - excellent record. Budejovic have drawn 5 and lost 8 away from home - so caution there re a possible draw?
Home team unconvincing recently - 2 draws bt a good 3-0 wedged inbetween. Not eye catching home form at all
Away team look adept at drawing away from home. 1.27
SHORTLIST
145 CHESTEr - Mijas Playa at 1.62 has the best draw and is the shortest priced. 5 furlongs should help those drawn low take maximum advantage of this draw
435 CHESTER - Harbinger really is strong in the market despite draw 10 - but is that really a concern over 1 mile 2 furlongs. Asateer also holds up well at 3/1 from stall 2 but I would follow the money here in a race with only 4 under 16/1 1.2 to place
525 HUNTINGDON - a 2 horse race hopefully in prospect with Emerald Wilderness and Moment Present 1.26 and 1.17 the front 2 but who to chose? 2nd fav has the experience but fav has the connections and the horse must have been schooled despite no race course jumping action. With 3rd fav out, wither of these must have a great chance surely mif not falling, pulled up oir unseating jockey
Emerald has been running almost exclusively in class 1,2 and 3 albeit over the flat so class 4 for hurdle debut should see him in a good light
ONE A DAY
the 435 Chester and 525 Huntingdon are the 2 and I will go in time order here and hope the money for HArbinger is proven -now evens .I hope stall 10 is not an obstacle over 1 miole 2 furlongs
LAst race analysis
The Derby and Dante entry Harbinger looks an obvious improver, for he was not wound up and connections always felt he would probably want further than this. Making his effort on the stands´ side of the pack, he snatched second on the line. He will step up to 1m2f next time and looks one to watch out for. He should go on progressing through the season.
Apologies for delay - this has taken nearly 2 houurs with terrible broadband today
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