200 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Barzan, 5/1 Hairspray, Midnight Uno, 6/1 Dubawi Phantom, 12/1 Going French, 25/1 Split The Pot, 33/1 D´Urberville.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BARZAN will be unlucky to bump into another as smart as last week's Newbury conqueror Canford Cliffs and is the one to beat in this slightly lower class. Midnight Uno may well get in the money, while the betting should give a pointer to the prospects of the newcomers.[FC] |
Could we nail this on the first bet of the day?
The market tells us we can with barzan now 1/2 and hot .
As ever it's not that simple. This is a 5 furlong 2 year old maiden race with a hot fav who has only had one run.
A word of warning re the last run
" with a top price of 100,000gns. He should win races, but needs to improve to justify the price-tag"
5 debutants in this race, and ,as ever, we don't know how good ( or otherwise) they are - the market should tell us though.
Above limits was similarly profiled but easily placed from a bad draw yesterday.
230 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ziggy Lee, 5/1 Cosmic Destiny, Drifting Gold, 8/1 Matterofact, 10/1 Digital, Magical Speedfit, 12/1 Orpen´s Art, 14/1 Best One, Cape Royal, 20/1 Firenza Bond, Sonhador,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cosmic Destiny was clearly better than the bare result at Goodwood on Wednesday and she should go well, but ZIGGY LEE (nap) has thrived since going handicapping and can gain compensation for his Newmarket disqualification.[PSm] |
Not 100% part of my system but a price gapper of sorts in a class 5 o-75 handicap.
Has been first past the post last twice but disqualified into 2nd last time out. We do know though that multiple handicap winners eventually get nailed by the additional weight. BUT was Ziggy Lee penalised for the disqualification last time?
245 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Orthology, 3/1 Final Victory, 7/2 Bagber, Kaloni, 14/1 Johnny Rocket, Northside Prince, 33/1 Thornton George, 66/1 One Tou Many.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Orthology is the pick on official ratings but he still has to prove his stamina in the ground and is taken on with FINAL VICTORY and Kaloni. Preference is for the former, who shaped well in a race that has been franked on his reappearance and he's capable of better.[RY] |
Soft ground should sound the alarm bells at Newcastle, so why is the fav odds on then?
An 8 runner race down to 7 and hopefully still 3 places, we could make a probability race out of this.
2 horses at 66/1 can hopefully be discounted leaving 5 runners and 3 places
Not much soft ground form for the front 2, Bagber does have soft ground form.
Concern is middle distances and soft ground. Final Victory's last run was this year which is good and was encouraging enough given 2nd in that race has won since.
330 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: Evs London Bridge, 7/2 Best Tune, Madison Park, 5/1 Senses, 14/1 Galiotto, 33/1 Twist Again, 66/1 Bicksta, Golden Ring.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to be a minimum test for London Bridge, who sets a clear standard on his encouraging Newbury debut last autumn but was beaten at odds on at Doncaster in March. Jeremy Noseda has an interesting pair in Senses and Best Tune, but MADISON PARK may be able to continue the good work of the Cecil 3yos.[AC] |
These bar stewards don't make life easy do they? Another fecking maiden!
London Bridge's 4th might put place backers off BUT he was only 4th by a short head and a short head so was bang in contention and with better luck in running could have finished 2nd at least.
The straight 8 here-the traditional minimum for 3 places, 3 horses at 33/1 or bigger and one at 20/1 can hopefully be dismissed reducing the field to 4 vying for 3 places.
Will 3 horses beat London Bridge?
3 debutants and opponents from some big named stables cannot be readily discounted but I am looking at this from a probability perspective. Can we find 3 of the 4 likely to be competitive to get this London Bridge beaten?
405 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Tryst, 9/4 Roaring Forte, 6/1 Giganticus, 8/1 Golden Desert, Hustle, 10/1 Barons Spy, 25/1 Binanti, 50/1 Countdown.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is too soon to be dogmatic that Roaring Forte needs Polytrack to be seen at his best, so today's mark, which is 6lb lower than on the AW, could be generous but TRYST looks the type to develop into a smart handicapper and this opening mark probably underestimates him.[AC] |
Another 8 runner race down to 7 runners here, 2 horses at 40/1 or bigger give this the makings of a probability race.
Tryst and Roaring forte are the market fancies, especially Tryst who is now 4/6
625 WEXFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Yankee Doodle, 5/2 Pittoni, 5/1 Sublime Talent, 8/1 Saponara, 25/1 Firm Foundations, Tax Dodger, 33/1 Destined For Fame, Polar Explorer, 50/1 Bmyhero, Golan Go, 66/1 Refresh Lad.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: YANKEE DOODLE looks a step ahead of these and shouldn't be opposed. |
2nd fav a non runner. Fav is an Aiden O'Brien/ Jonny Murtagh horse.
Only 3 horses under 33/1 including Sublime talent for Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen
Looks a great race to focus on bar the fact ground is yielding /soft and it has been peeing down over here in Ireland (fancy that eh?)
710 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Classic Swain, 9/2 King Edmund, 5/1 Makhzoon, 12/1 No Money For Honey, 20/1 Persian Warrior, 25/1 Jago, 40/1 Duneen Dream, 66/1 On Yer Own, 200/1 Devolution.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CLASSIC SWAIN has some way to go before being compared to Westender, Natal or Deep Purple, all recent winners of this contest, but he looks head and shoulders above the opposition and it will be disappointing if he cannot complete a hat-trick. Makhzoon and King Edmund look set to fight out second.[SR] |
Now 2/5 in this novices hurdle and certainly Spotlight is very bullish indeed. Another Nicholls hotpot.9 runners
1 is 20/1
1 is 33/1
2 are 50/1
1 is 100/1
Hopefully ,in this 9 runner race we can reduce the field by these 5 for competitive purposes?
850 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Open Sesame, 6/1 Oriental Cavalier, 8/1 Just Like Silk, 9/1 Hey Up Dad, 14/1 Sign Of Approval, Tropical Blue, 20/1 Brad´s Luck, General Zhukov, Green Dynasty, 25/1 Hector´s House, Sergeant Pink, Short Sharp Shock, 50/1 Shanavaz,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A standout horse in OPEN SESAME, who is the type to be overbet and does encounter soft ground for the first time but who is potentially a class above this opposition judging by the way he won when maintaining his unbeaten record at Newmarket last week. Sign Of Approval may be the best each-way alternative. [MCu] |
Price gapper in a class 5 0-75 handicap. Not quite as low grade as I would like to see for this price gapper system.
Soft ground a major spanner in the works here for the favourite but the price has not been affected by this new ground the horses is encountering for the first time
FOOTBALL
| 19:45 | Bohemians vs Drogheda | 1/5 |
Preference for game in running to allow trading
SHORTLIST
200 is the time of the first race so I will update at 1pm. Why don't you read the above and see which one you would pick in the meantime?
I have a fair idea of 2 in particular -see if yo agree with me later on.
Back at 1pm - it's only 1130am so there might be some more non runners especially with soft ground at Haydock and Newcastle
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