210 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Fly Silca Fly, 11/4 Flyinflyout, 100/30 Perle D´Amour, 9/2 Secret Queen, 5/1 Nina Rose, 33/1 Carries Lass, 50/1 Ishipink,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably not the strongest of maidens but tricky for all that with little to choose between the Mick Channon-trained pair Flyinflyout and FLY SILCA FLY on form and a trio of newcomers from good yards taking them on. Fly Silca Fly, who might have come up against an above-average newcomer at Newcastle, is preferred |
8 down to 6 runners here - another 50/50 race wit 2 at 20/1+, surely the new fav, Secret Queen has a great palce chance. BUT she is a debutant and so are many others NOTE - only 2 to be placed (it is always important to look at this on betfair) so a no bet race for me. I would only have been interested with 3 places
450 PERTH
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAFARI ADVENTURES could be tough to peg back round here, with a soft lead not out of the question. The Rocking Dock and old boy Hollows Mill should make it interesting.[AWJ]
4 runners now including the original 14/1 horse. Safari si well thought of by SPotlight and seemingly has 1 to beat to place as long as he doesn't fall, unseat or get pulled up. THe prices are certainly tempting aren't they if you fancy a gamble in what looks a 3 horse race, but the head of the market is tight and the front 3 cannot really be separated. 1.5 is enticing for a gamble and a decent return!
500 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dort Tranquille, 100/30 The Donserelli, 5/1 I´Ve Been Framed, Kaladan, 10/1 Nether Stream, 16/1 Sierra Del Plata, 25/1 Irish Symphony, 33/1 Generous Jarmen, Tarashan, Time War, 50/1 Attrapeur, Friendship Bay, 66/1 Dashing Patriarch, Patiently,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kaladan has potential and he might well have had the edge taken off his freshness by his Ludlow run two weeks ago but the well-bred Nicky Henderson newcomer DORT TRANQUILLE is of definite interest on paper.[EMW] |
McCoy/Henderson combo on the fav, now odds on but not run before so a risk involved and a short priced based solely on reputation it woould seem 1.21 to place - the market sees McCoy's mount here as a good thing
FOOTBALL
Inter 4/9 v Atalanta.
Lost 3-1 to Atalanta at their place, but Mourinho teams do not lose at home! BUT nothing at all to play for, this is a dead rubber game Laying Atalanta at 9 for £100 is the same as a 1.11 bet. This hinges on the Mourinho home record with Porto, Chelsea and now Inter Milan - they don't lose at home
Genoa 4/11 v Lecce - Lecce look down and 3 points can't really help them. 3 points for Genoa though could put them in with a chance of European football if Fiorentina lose and Genoa score 3 + goals
Bolgna 1/4 v Catania. Bologna must win, they are above the relegation zone on goal difference only. Catania are safe and have nothing to play for.
Saltzburg 1/4 v Altach. Have not scored less than 2 in all home games. Have won all bar one match at home.
Altach have conceded 8, 4, 3 against top 4 sides away from home and look doomed regardless of result here 3 points would leave them equal 2nd bottom but 7 goals goal difference may be too much
Sporting Gijon 3/10 against Huelva
3rd from bottom v bottom side. Sporting need to win to give them a chance of getting out of the relegation zone ( depends on how Osasuna do-the goal difference between the 2 is far too great so Osasuna have to lose to give Sporting a chance) Huelva are down it would seem so will have zero motivation
Sporting have won their last 2 so they're trying. Huelva has been good against bottom 5 sides so expect some nailbiting
Levski Sofia 1.1 to win. HAve an excellent home record scoring bundles and should have no problems but the price does not allow for "problems!"
SHORTLIST
A poor day from my perspective today with not many price gappers at all. THe 450 Perth should involve the front 3 horses ( 2 to place) and a risk could be taken at the prices expecially for compounders (target profit per dayers) because 1.5 means you only stake 2 times your compound target profit so if it goes tits up, then no problem. I would opt, for the sake of making a decision, on the live market leader at the off to place and hope the outsider runs like an original 14/1 shot, the fav does not fall ,unseat, or get pulled up. Safari Adventures at the moment 1.5 at the moment.
As far as level stake backers are concerned, this is perhaps a more risky bet but the return is still enticing. The problem here is that the front 3 are tight at the head of the market and Safari was only chosen based on being a slight favourite.
Levkia Sofia are 1.1 to win
Laying atalanta are the same as a 1.11 back
ONE A DAY
If we're looking for Falling Angel type probability bets or Riggins type price gappers then there aren't any today. It's an official no bet day for me today, but the shortlist does contain the best of what I could find. Will Mourinho's phenomenal home record continue in what is a dead rubber match?
Will the 450 Perth involve the front 3 with the favourite NOT beaten by 3 (I will do this for compounding because stakes are only double the target profit given it's a 1/2 bet so for my compounding article I will go with Safari Adventures to win my target profit. Level stakes players will perhaps find this a little risky but your return is great given the odds .
Good luck with your choices. The Italian and Spanish matches feature season long poorly performing sides who are suddenly expected(because they NEED a win) to produce the goods. My argument here is how reliable will these sides be .They're at the botom for a reason!!
The compounding bet is one I am not going to lose sleep over as any potential losses are minimal and will be included in my monthly compounding round up.
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