I was cursing again with Billy Beetroot placing and I think, if he is ever priced as a fancied fav he should be worth closer consideration.
Aggies lad won at Kilarney - I was there and beautiful sunshine and some fine fillies on show - the horses looked good as well!
High class field at York today
200 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Balthazar King, 9/2 Creagh Bay, 11/2 Little Eaglet, 7/1 Quantique, 12/1 Newsday, 14/1 Ashmolian, Timon´s Present, 16/1 Home, 50/1 Code, 66/1 Bunglasha Hall, 100/1 Nimbus Flyer.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BALTHAZAR KING looks the safest option, though he will be running out of excuses if he cannot go very close in this. The likes of Little Eaglet and Quantique will have to improve if they are to mount a challenge but there are reasons to believe that both are capable of doing just that.[JN] |
Fav now odds on and 2 2nd places augurs well
Quantique and Timons Present are 2 market movers 1.23 to place
3 at 66/1 or bigger
220 EXETEr
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Lindy Lou, 3/1 Je Ne Sais Plus, 7/1 Sparkling Montjeu, 9/1 Vic´s World, 12/1 Sweet Seville, 33/1 Chilla Cilla, Jessica, 50/1 Honeycombe, Itstooearly, Ray´s Round.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for LINDY LOU, who has shown more than enough on both hurdling starts to suggest a race of this nature is within her grasp. Je Ne Sais Plus is the potential danger.[BDO] |
Fav now 1/2 McCoy on board
Only 3 under 10/1
2 2nds already this year 1.11 to place
230 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Tchico Polos, 6/1 Cavallini, 7/1 Martys Mission, 12/1 Chunky Lad, 16/1 Drombeg Pride, 20/1 Calgary Jock, Mystic Storm.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TCHICO POLOS did enough at Hereford to suggest he can get off the mark over fences with likely main rivals Cavallini and Martys Mission both with something to prove on their chasing debuts.[JN] |
Price gapper here but only 2 places 1.27 to place
250 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Passato, 3/1 Players Please, 7/1 Fly With The Stars, 10/1 Lady Friend, 14/1 Cherryficial, 25/1 Fantastic Morning, Tavalu, Where Now Madame.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Likely pacesetter Players Please should give a good account but could well set the race up for PASSATO, who was impressive over C&D last week and escapes a penalty in this less competitive event.[BDO] |
Another shortie and 8 runners so 3 places. Can we find 3 to beat Passato?
3 at 25/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 5?
A " hard to beat" selection 1.15 to place
300 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Stance, 5/2 Fishguard Filly, 5/1 Mistified, 8/1 Santarctique, 16/1 Skipper´s Lad, 25/1 Converti, Pleiade De La Vega, 33/1 Better Moment.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Stance is more than capable of winning this but preference is for FISHGUARD FILLY, who clearly relishes racing around this track and whose stamina can come into play in the later stages.[JN] |
Another 8 runner race and the betting forecast shows 4 below 16/1 but in the live market Converti is quite a mover at 12/1 and, if this is accurate, this could scupper the chances of he front 2 getting 2 of the first 3 places
2 are 33/1 or bigger 1.27 and 1.2 with 7 runners and 3 places
430 EXETEr
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Manmoon, 2/1 Winsley Hill, 14/1 Talikos, 33/1 Coffee Morning, Orion Star.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should concern MANMOON and Winsley Hill. Preference goes to the former who has run really well in stronger company over fences and is worth another chance.[BDO] |
Should be 3 fighting for 2 places here so a great probability bet 1.23 and 1.61 the front 2 to place
505 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Alanna Castle, 4/1 Miss Molly Moses, 7/1 Maple Syrup, 8/1 Disco Jack, 14/1 Blazing Empress, 25/1 Sean Thornton, Valdelarosa, 50/1 Red Hot Joker.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALANNA CASTLE will probably only need to make natural progression from his encouraging Ludlow introduction to take this with Tony McCoy to assist.[BDO] |
Bumper - 8 down to 7 - McCoy on fav - 3 at 20/1 or bigger. No obstacles so a good chance of placing if 3 the place on Betfair 1.11 -illiquid market
850 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dance Pass, 9/2 Buiochas Mor, 11/2 Simla Sunset, 8/1 Faseela, 12/1 Adaiyra, Lady Rockfield, Law Of The Jungle, 20/1 Cacace, Cilium, Fingal Rock, Saorocain, 25/1 Effortless, Halcyon Princess, Image Is Everythin, 33/1 Mary Athena, Trinity Scholar, 50/1 Dotada, Saddlers Bend, Zuton, 66/1 Bice.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to judge the quality of this maiden, and although she's saddled with an outside draw, DANCEPASS looks quite hard to oppose. |
20 runner maiden but Weld/Smullen and now evens 1.22 but market very illiquid
FOOTBALL
| 16:00 | Slovan Bratislav vs Nitra | 1/5 |
| 16:30 | Nurnberg vs Osnabruck | 4/11 |
| 19:45 | Hibernian vs Rangers | 6/1 | 3/1 | 1/2 |
| 20:00 | Wigan vs Manchester Utd | 10/1 | 4/1 | 3/10 |
SLOVAN GAME 1.22 NOT IN RUNNING
Slovan have a home record of 12-1-1 (W-D-L)
Nitra have an away record of 1-4-8 (W-D-L
League Matches
Slovan are on a 5 game winning streak. Slovan are on a 2 game home winning streak. Slovan have gone 8 games without a draw. Slovan are undefeated in their last 5 games. Slovan have gone 13 home games without a draw.
Nitra have not won in their last 5 games.
All Matches
Slovan are undefeated in their last 4 games. Slovan have gone 6 home games without a draw.
Nitra have not won in their last 5 games.
Opposition could make this tight having drawn a couple away recently and lost one other by 1-0 but the differences in ratings is massive
NURNBERG 1.38 to backlay OSnabruck is the same as backing at 1.08
Have only lost 1 and drawn 3 at home
Won their last 4 at home
Beaten all bottom sides
Away team have lost convincingly away to top 6 sides
RANGERS - 1.53 to back and the equivalent of 1.13 to lay Hibs with fixed liability
Tend to have trouble away to top 5 sides but did Beat Hibs before away from home. Not a match I would be confident in BUT they DO need to win
MAN UTD 1.32 to back
Standout game this evening. An unincentivised Wigan on their hols already play a very incentivised Man Utd looking to nail the title with victory here and a point elsewhere.
Looks an outstanding bet
SHORTLIST
Top of the list must be Man Utd away to Wigan at 1.32
230 FONTWELL - Tchico Polos at 1.27 is mentioned as he is a clear price gapper with no market movers in this race. 2 the place is a negative so we have to be confident in a good run here. HEad 2nd last time out is very encouraging. IS the price unnaturally low because this is a Nicholls Horse?
250 EXETER - Passato - 1.15 to place. I am always a little wary though about horses who have "suddenly" found winning form after not-a-sign of it on all known previous hurdle form.The contention with this one as fav is that he will automatically repeat the dose. On a positive note, this is an 8 runner field and 3 places, so has 5 to beat to place , and some of those 5 are priced as clear otsiders
Jockey is an unknown to me, but not an unknown to the horse
430 EXETER - Manmoon at 1.24 to place in what should be a 3 horse race for 2 places - as ever he is open to falling/being pulled up/un seating rier
ONE A DAY
I must go for Man Utd as my one a day bet today, just given the whole circumstances we find ourselves in. ie Wigan look to be on their hols. Nothing to play for. Safely out of relegation zone, no chance of threatening for Europe. DISINCENTIVISED
Man Utd will see this as a MUST WIN and ecent form has been superb. A strong team is hoped for here 1-0's have been the order of the day for Man Utd away from home, and normal expectations would be for a typical Wigan display at home - tough to break down. Wigan have lost 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5, coinciding with them being safe now.
May look to trade if Man Utd score 1st and trade the position of the game does not go as expected
All the shortlisted horses look ok today but 2 are in 2 the place races so we have to ensure the market leaders will give their running as there is little room for error.
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