205 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Royal Rock, 4/1 Dandy Man, 5/1 Hoh Hoh Hoh, 7/1 Percolator, 10/1 Anglezarke, Fullandby, 14/1 Captain Gerrard, Peace Offering, 16/1 Reverence, 20/1 Ialysos, 100/1 Foxy Music.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is very hard to keep the faith with Dandy Man even though he is now tried blinkered and is back down in Listed company, and ROYAL ROCK (nap) has a much more appealing profile. The way he travelled over 6f on his return here three weeks ago suggested he would have no problem coping with the pace over the minimum trip and there is plenty of room for new faces at the top of the sprinting tree.[AC] |
Well backed fav and a price gapper in the live market. Has had a recent run and an impressive win last time out.This is a class 1 listed race so a slight step up in class but the market seems to think he will cope well.
As ever, all horses in class 1 listed are obviously talented 1.43 to place
210 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Dunaskin, 11/2 Realism, 7/1 Birkside, Gross Prophet, 10/1 Nawamees, Teasing, 11/1 Nosferatu, 12/1 Benedict Spirit, Bridgewater Boys, Trip The Light, 14/1 Vicious Warrior, 16/1 Edas, 25/1 Saxona, 50/1 Oddsmaker.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUNASKIN, beaten less than 5l into fourth in last year's November Handicap, deserves a crack at this confidence-boosting level. Birkside may be the one to beat if turning out again. |
Birkside won yesterday and is a non runner. He won yesterday so Dunaskin's price could indicate a reasonable run?
Has been running in class 1 and class 2 races so this is a drop in class to claiming company 1.73 to place
220 GOODWOOD
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both HIGH STANDING and Shifting Star are interesting sprinters for this year but in particular there was a lot to like about the selection's win for his new yard at Doncaster and he is even less exposed than Shifting Star.[EMW] |
High standing at 7/4 is well backed but this is a big field. Has won 3 under Spencer ( yeh I know!)
1.61 to place
230 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Alrasm, 5/1 Big Audio, 7/1 Key Breeze, 10/1 Public Service, The Caped Crusader, 14/1 Branderburgo, 25/1 Desert Forest, Thinking, 33/1 Camacho Flyer, Petrocelli, Rigid, 66/1 Another Grand, Island Express, Nolecce, 100/1 Sandy Toes.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALRASM has an obvious chance judged on his clear second at Newbury. Big Audio is expected to show the benefit of his debut experience and can get in the money, while the betting should give an idea of the threat posed by the newcomers, among whom Public Service and The Caped Crusader are the most interesting. |
Russian roulette this one as we saw yesterday - one time out short priced maidens either perform great or, like yesterday, don't place. What will it be today? 1.14 to place
305 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Main Aim, 4/1 Beacon Lodge, 11/2 Tariq, 6/1 Arabian Gleam, 10/1 Asset, 14/1 Atlantic Sport, Garnica, Laa Rayb, 33/1 Royal Confidence, Welsh Emperor.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Stoute colt Main Aim has started favourite for all his starts and is likely to be highly popular here to following his demolition job of handicappers at Newbury a fortnight ago. However, he faces a much harder task against these proven Group-race performers back up in trip and preference is for TARIQ, one of the best 7f performers around in 2007 but not tried over this trip since.[AC] |
11/10 now -not performed in group company ye but very good last run. 1.4 to place
420 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Falling Angel, 3/1 Babylonian, 100/30 Sweet Sonnet, 11/2 Jeanie Johnston, 14/1 Venture Girl, 33/1 Mrs Jones And Me, Perfect Blossom, 66/1 Tagula Pearl.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Babylonian and Sweet Sonnet are respected as well-bred newcomers from powerful yards but they could have problems matching strides with FALLING ANGEL who showed plenty of speed when second on her debut and looks sure to improve.[FC] |
8 down to 6 runners here. Falling angle again has had the one run and is 13/8 fav. Now, only 3 to beat to place with 2 horses at 25/1 and 33/1
Yet again this is another one time out 2 year old against a lot of debutants 1.11 to place and 6 runners and 3 places
540 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Riggins, 6/1 Mujood, 7/1 Cape Hawk, 10/1 Overturn, 12/1 Isphahan, 14/1 Dubai Dynamo, 16/1 Prince Of Thebes, Vainglory, 20/1 Traphalgar, 25/1 Classic Legend, 40/1 Resurge.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two runs in the same season, let alone two in two weeks, is something new for RIGGINS but a chance is taken that he will live up to his earlier promise following the debacle of his turf debut at Newmarket. He took a keen hold early on but it was the lack of a way through that killed off his chance and, although he was never anywhere near the leaders, he gave the impression he was full of running. Mujood and Cape Hawk are the most solid options among the remainder.[RA] |
Price gapper here -last run can be ignored so the Racing Post says as he did not get the openings.
Change of jockey to Dettori here in the hope the horse can give his running. He is very well backed to return to winning form today 1.25 to place
630 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Calypso Bay, 3/1 Mooteeah, 8/1 Morning Sir Alan, Stellar Cause, 12/1 Vivachi, 14/1 Secret Life, Sirjosh, 20/1 Dream On Connie, M´Lady Rousseur, 33/1 Sanctum, 66/1 Captain Flack, Wise Princess,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Calypso Bay sets the standard on his debut effort but he was a bit disappointing at Chester last time, even allowing for a wide draw. He may well prove too good for these rivals, but MOOTEEAH shaped with encouragement on her debut over 7f and, over a trip more in keeping with her pedigree, she can get off the mark at the third attempt.[PSm] |
only 4 under 12/1.
Calypso BAy is odds on here despite unspectacular form 1.22 to place in an illiquid market
750 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Trading Nation, 9/2 Tender Charm, 7/1 Chandika, Tarqua, 12/1 Medicean Man, 16/1 Eyes Like A Hawk, New Leyf, 20/1 Femme De Fer, Fiftyfourth Street, 25/1 Bertie´s Birthday, Der Rosenkavalier, 40/1 Quinsman, Santefisio, 50/1 Kuanyao, Lord Fidelio, 100/1 Iron Man Of Mersey.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRADING NATION (nap), a half-brother to the stable's very useful 7f-1m winner Fifteen Love, looks likely to stay further in due course but the form he showed over 6f on his reappearance sets a clear standard and he can go one better. Tarqua is one of the more interesting newcomers |
Odds on shot here after 16/1 2nd place last time out. 1.2 to place
FOOTBALL
Rangers look interesting at 1/3 for the double this season. It is a one off match though but they have completed the double over Falkirk this season.
Chelsea v Everon today has seen 2 0-0's between these teams already this season. 1.62 for under 2.5 goals and 1.25 for under 3.5 goals looks enticing. But, again, this is a one off game
Because of the time of the season the other matches are difficult to solve. St Etienne ,for example, are 4/11 to beat Valenciennes 11th against 18th (the 18th are St Etienne!)
They must need the win to stave off relegation, hence the price against a team in mid table mediocrity
Bari v Treviso - top v bottom and 1.24 to win. They MUST win as they are only 2 points ahead at the top of the league. Have always beaten the bottom 7 sides well.
Have beaten Treviso already 2-0. I expect a similar scoreline
I can't understand why Grossetto are 1.16 to beat Frosinone as their recent form is poor.The away team have won 4 and drawn 2 of their last 6 . More of a lay surely at 1.16 than a back!
SHORTLIST
A difficult day wher, in some cases, we face the conundrum of 1 time out maidens installed as price gappers and odds on shots.
420 YORK - Fallen Angel is 1.11 to place in a 50/50 race -6 runners and 3 places. A tricky race as he's one of the horses mentioned above
540 GOODWOOD
Riggins could be forgiven his last run. A clear price gapper here the market expects a swift return to form and at 1.25 this is a good place price with Dettori on board. If he avoids traffic problems then he should return to good form
Under 3.5 goals is 1.25 for the FA Cup Final, and this looks appealing, and we can also manage our positions in running.
Bari are similarly priced to beat reviso who are all but down BUT Bari still have great incentive to stay at the top of the Italian Seria B
ONE A DAY
The horse racing today comprises of horses short priced based on one run in the maidens, or going up in class in listed races
The shortlisted races both look good. Riggins is a bit of a gamble in the hope he returns to the great form of his runs prior to the nightmare race last time out
For me, my one a day will beChelsea v Everton under 3.5 goals in the hope recent 0-0 head to heads can be replicated.
The best race for me looks to be the 420 York just from a probability perspective -will Fallen angel be beaten by 3 other horses in a 6 horse race - 2 of which are 25/1 and 33/1?
God luck whatever you choose
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