210 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Izaaj, 15/8 Clan Piper, 9/2 Rock Of Love, 10/1 Fonterutoli, 12/1 Prince Fortune, 25/1 Usquaebach.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A market move for either of the newcomers would be interesting but as things stand the presumably well-regarded CLAN PIPER is taken to improve past Izaaj so long as the rain stays away.[ |
Isaaj now odds on - small field maiden race with only 2 places 1.16 to place
220 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Final Ovation, 100/30 Military Call, 7/1 Magical Macey, 10/1 Maison Brillet, Stanley Bridge, 12/1 Commanche Raider, 14/1 Sweet Baby Jane, 20/1 Miccolo, 25/1 Reignier, 33/1 Rightcar, 50/1 Weetentherty.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It can pay to give FINAL OVATION a chance to recover debut losses with the form of his Doncaster fourth looking quite strong. Military Call is likely to get in the money again, while the betting should give an idea of the threat posed by the newcomers.[FC] |
only 3 under 16/1 in this maiden race
5 debutants 1.31 the front 2 and 1.82 for the big market mover
Reignier is 25/1 in the betting forecast BUT 4/1 in the live market. They look hot for this one!
230 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Key Art, 2/1 Dancing Freddy, 4/1 Miss Lauz, 15/2 Radio City, 16/1 Elegant Dancer, 33/1 Lady Bucket, Nolecce.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Richard Hannon's newcomer Miss Lauz will merit respect, particularly if there is money for her, but this could revolve around the trailblazing Dancing Freddy and KEY ART. The latter is a likely improver and is preferred.[FC] |
7 runner race down to 5 runners here with fav remaining
Of those 5 remaining one is at 16/1 and one at 25/1 in yet another fecking maiden!
Fav has only had the one run out at class 3 and takes a big drop in class.
2nd fav has placed 2nd already twice 1.26 and 1.37 the front 2 but only 2 places
320 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Lucayan Dancer, 7/2 Dancing Lyra, Johnston´s Baby, 5/1 Evelith Regent, 7/1 Rowan Lodge, 20/1 Victory Spirit, 25/1 Complete Frontline, 33/1 Beaumont Boy, Sparky Vixen, 50/1 Defi, 100/1 Jojesse, Optical Seclusion.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lucayan Dancer is the pick of the weights and is sure to go well back in trip but he's the type that needs things to drop just right and preference is for JOHNSTON'S BABY, who has shown improved form on her last two starts and may well be capable of better on the Flat. [RY] |
Only 4 under 14/1 but this is a class 6 seller 1.31 the fav to place
340 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dreamwalk, 3/1 Andhaar, Dome Rocket, 7/1 Cluny, 10/1 Daredevil Dan, 16/1 Count On Guest, 20/1 Charismatic Lady, 33/1 Arashi.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DREAMWALK looked a tad unlucky not to lose his maiden status last time and might still have some more to offer. He gets the vote ahead of Andhaar.[GN] |
Only 3 under 10/1 and 3rd fav a nonrunner
Another 8 down to 7 maiden 1.15 to place Dreamwalk with 3 places still
400 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Polly´s Mark, 11/4 Onemix, 7/2 Act Green, 7/1 Lonely Star, 9/1 Petella, 10/1 Miss Sophisticat, 16/1 Perception, 40/1 Clumber Place.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks competitive, with plenty of plausible options and possible improvers, but perhaps POLLY'S MARK is the place to turn after proving that she stays and has trained on when second in a handicap at Sandown last month. As Saturday's big handicap at Newbry demonstrated, there was no disgrace in being outgunned by Aqwaal.[RA] |
NOTE SPOTLIGHT'S FIRST 3 WORDS!
8 runners down to 6 and one clear outsider at 25/1 has the makings of a probabiliity race with any selection having a 50/50 chance of placing 1.29 the fav to place with 3 places
430 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mohtashem, 3/1 Sovereign Remedy, 8/1 Sahaal, 10/1 Ithinkbest, Picturethatmoment, Royal Defence, 16/1 Alpha Vega, 20/1 Choral Service, Molly The Witch, Peace Corps, Singbella, 40/1 Montmartre, 50/1 Cruise Control.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: They have to transfer their Polytrack form to turf but Sovereign Remedy and MOHTASHEM could dominate considerations. There was only a length between them at Kempton and it is hard to say which will come on the more for that debut outing, but Mohtashem was not ridden so sternly and probably shaped just the better. Sahaal may be the owner's second string on jockey bookings but this well-bred newcomer needs a check, as does the $440,000 purchase Picturethatmoment.[RA] |
odds on shot who has yet to race on turf and has only had the one run against a field full of potential from good stables 1.2 to place
550 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Deutschland, 3/1 Salford City, 7/1 Holly Tree, 10/1 Dreamy Gent, Hill Fairy, 14/1 Killenaule Boy.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DEUTSCHLAND should score for Willie Mullins who has maintained his excellent form into the new campaign. The champion trainer enjoyed spectacular success at the festival meeting here, although Deutschland was one of the few members of the team who did not quite live up to expectations. He was soundly beaten in fourth behind longer-priced stablemate Barker in the Grade 1 Swordlestown Chase. He had previously finished under a length behind that rival when third to Aran Concerto in the 2m4f Powers Gold Cup.\n |
Mullins horse but no Ruby
Heavy ground a concern in Ireland 1.23 to place in an illiquid market
610 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Tawaabb, 7/2 State Fair, 10/1 Knightfire, 14/1 Bebenine, 16/1 Sandy Toes, 20/1 George Baker, Yeah, 25/1 Baby Judge,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAWAABB should be equal to the task if confirming the promise of his Windsor debut effort. State Fair comes from a race which has not worked out but may still prove the pick of the opposition.[FC] |
George Baker is ridden by George Baker and trained by George Baker!
Looks to concern the front 3 but yet again we see maidens with only a single run out 1.1 and 1.16 the front 2 to place
620 PUNCH
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SIZING EUROPE is a high-profile recruit to novice chasing. The seven-year-old has brought plenty of heartache to connections and supporters since his superb triumph in the 2008 AIG Champion Hurdle, but it makes sense for Henry de Bromhead to give him this early opportunity to get going over fences. He raced only three times last season and hinted that he was on the way back to form with a prominent run before weakening into fourth behind Solwhit in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle nearly three weeks ago. He has always had the stamp of a chaser, and is in a different league to these rivals, with the proviso that conditions here are going to be fairly demanding for any first-time novice.\ |
Note the lastt 7 words above!
Class horse in the field but a newcomer to chasing and heavy ground 1.27 to place
810 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Steel Free, 6/1 Zero Money, 9/1 Flying Silks, 10/1 Majestic Lady, 12/1 Der Rosenkavalier, Wotasparkler, 16/1 Houdella, 50/1 Exceed Elegance, 66/1 Athaakeel.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STEEL FREE's bold debut show at Newbury came as no surprise to connections on her home work and she is taken to go one better here. Zero Money could pose most problems.[PJ] |
Price gapper but not as pronounced in the live market. frank on board BUT raced the horse to win 2nd last time so stable look like they want the win
Zero Money the potential market mover 1.14 and 1.25 the front 2
825 PUNCH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 An Innocent Man, 9/2 Leading Diamonds, 7/1 Emotional Melody, 12/1 Woodquest, 14/1 Elysian Rock, Fastnet Flyer, Musical Melody, 20/1 Accord Aris, Dads Memory, Energiser, Fancy Fashion, Power Pack Jack, Primora De Kerpaul, Sir Alex, 25/1 Chasing Silver, Phil Cullen, Valley Of Thrushes, 33/1 Barna Gold, Followmeuptocarlow, Woodbrook Lad, 50/1 Bold Present, Brave Eva, Callisto Green, Early June, Maria Augusta,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AN INNOCENT MAN (nap) is tipped to record an overdue success. When the Overbury gelding finished second to Cousin Vinny on his debut in a bumper at this venue in the early part of last year, it would have been hard to believe that he would remain a maiden for another full season. |
A 22 runner 3 mile maiden hurdle in heavy ground! YIKES!
2nd fav a non runner means the price gap in bigger in the live market 1.14 illiquid market
840 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Non Dom, 11/2 Lombok, 6/1 Saborido, 7/1 Citizenship, 8/1 Atacama Sunrise, 9/1 Scottish Affair, 10/1 Graycliffe, 12/1 Best Bidder, 20/1 Shifting Gold, 25/1 Deuce.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be more to come from the handicap newcomers Lombok and Atacama Sunrise, but NON DOM (nap) won in good style at Windsor a week ago and is expected to maake a bold bid to defy the penalty.[FC] |
Price gapper in a class 5 0-70 ( although I do prefer class 6 )
Shorter in the live market so obviously fancied 1.26 to place
SHORTLIST
210 YARM -Isaaj is a son of Giants Causeway and a Godolphin runner with Dettori on board. 1.16 to place - marked drop in class BUT, as with the majority of races today, we have a maiden installed as fav based on a sole run
2 places mean we need to be spot on here and we cannot say for definite that this 2 year old will automatically replicate that sole run
230 NOTT
Included really as a probability race. 7 runners down to 5 runners and the 2 original market leaders remain.
Key art 1.26
Dancing Freddy 1.37
2 horses are 16/1 and 33/1 and there is one fly in the ointment at 7/1
If we can discount the 2 outsiders, then this is a 3 horse race for 2 places?
340 YARMOUTH
8 runners down to 7 and a significant non runner as that horse was the original 3rd fav
Yet another maiden race which is disconcerting but Dreamwalk is 1.16 to place in the first 3, and was a head 2nd last time out
400NOTT
This is one of those 50/50 chance races. 6 horses and still 3 places Pollys Mark is 1.3 NOT to get beaten by 3 other horses!
One clear outsider at 50/1 leaves any horse having only really to beat 2 to place.
My concern is that this is middle distance and the 3 at the head of the market are tight.
Spotlight also points out the very competitive nature of this race.
One for the gamblers in the hope Pollys Mark does not find 3 horses to beat him
840 LEIC
Not a proper price gapper in a low handicap - this is only a class 5 0-70 - I prefer to see class 6 0-65 for my little system. 1.26 to place
ONE A DAY
230 NOTTINGHAM is the probability race of the day.
To recap -see below we have a 5 runner race now - 2 horses at 20/1 and 33/1
One fav at evens
Miss Lauz is not out of it but the hope is that this one will not be involved a the finish
Key Art surely then has a great probability chance, all things being equal, of placing in the first 2 and at 1.26 is worth a punt
A 5 furlong maiden race is not ideal at all, and those with discipline can call this a no bet day but because of the probability angle, I am hoping the outsiders run as outsiders and Key Art does NOT find 2 horses to beat him out of the remaining 3.
MARKET READS
KEY ART EVENS
DANCING FREDDY 13/8
MISS LAUZ 13/2
ELEGANT DANCER 18/1
LADY BUCKET 33/1
1 comment:
Very nice again Clive, much appreciated.
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