| Sharapova v Lisicki - 1.4 Sharapova seems quite high and surely will trade lower at some stage in this match, the form she has been in. 230 HAYDOCK BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Excavator, 5/2 Musical Valley, 5/1 Triggerlo, 40/1 Come To Mind. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EXCAVATOR was turned over at odds on switched to Polytrack last time but his debut form has worked out well and he's well worth another chance to build on that promise in an uncompetitive affair returned to turf. Bath runner-upMusical Valley is the likeliest danger, unless Triggerlo takes a step back in the right direction with a visor fitted.[Steve Boow] 3 under 50/1 for 2 places and now Excavator is a 1/3 shot. 300 HAYDOCK BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Silverheels, 4/1 Electric Qatar, 10/1 Ralphy Boy. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A very useful conditions event in which Stonefield Flyer and Silverheels bring Royal Ascot form to the table. However the former has to prove he's as good over this trip as over 5f and the last-named was a shade disappointing last time so the one to be on could be WEST LEAKE DIMAN, who created a good impression when successful on his debut and who looks sure to improve for the step up to this trip.[Richard Young] 3 horses and 2 places makes this an ideal place only race - a 2 year old novices stakes race. 905 LEOPARDSTOWN BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Johnny Mcgeeney, 6/4 Steps To Freedom, 5/1 Clarach, 10/1 Foildearg, 12/1 Hide The Evidence, 25/1 Waterloo Sunrise, 33/1 Warning Sound, 50/1 Sargent Foaley, 50/1 The Fighter, 66/1 Sacre Malta, 66/1 The Shizz, 100/1Slayer. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not as competitive as one might have expected. The standouts are STEPS TO FREEDOM, who has to put that Punchestown aberration behind him on his debut for Jessica Harrington, and Johnny McGeeney. [Johnny Ward] Johnny Mcgeeney is a Mullins Horse with katie Walsh onboard and may be worth a shot to place in a race where there are 3 under 14/1 -but note the race time -plenty enough time for the markets to reveal any dark horses ( as there are a few debutants) 840 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 End Or Beginning, 4/1 Light Well, 4/1 Sirius Superstar, 9/2 Korabushka, 20/1 Etheldreda, 25/1Classical Air, 50/1 Delight Of The Eye, 50/1 Lily In Pink. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No surprise if Light Well improves markedly on his Doncaster debut when just behind Korabushka, but this is a much more realistic task for END OR BEGINNING than he faced in the Queen's Vase and he looks the one to beat.[Adrian Cook] This is now an 8 runner race - 3 places - and currently 4 horses under 20/1 makes this an ideal place only race. End or beginning is the favourite as I write ( and yet again note the race time is some 10 hours hence). These types of races are superb as we saw 2 days ago with Triviality. 220 PERTH BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Wikaala, 2/1 Toshi, 6/1 Danny Zuko, 33/1 Solway Star, 200/1 Lucky Belle. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's difficult to know how this will be run and a slow pace could throw a spanner in the works. WIKAALAought to win but Toshi could prove a formidable opponent if the ground is not too taxing.[Jonathan Neesom] 3 under 33/1 here for a 2 place race - albeit a selling hurdle. 320 PERTH BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Bold Perk, 13/2 Mr Nobody, 15/2 What A Steel, 8/1 Private Lives, 8/1 Traffic Article, 14/1 Maolisa, 16/1 Outlaw Tom, 20/1 Wor Rom, 25/1 Danny John Boy, 25/1 Essifer, 33/1 Baccalaureate, 40/1 Lago Verde. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bold Perk will prove hard to beat if his recent exertions, including yesterday's chasing success, have not taken a toll but this might be the opportunity for MR NOBODY to strike after an encouraging effort last time.[Jonathan Neesom] Price gapper here in this handicap hurdle. Now I am not a fan of price gappers in handicaps on the flat, much less handicap hurdles. 4 under 10/1 in the betting and Bold Perk a little shaky at 2/1 210 YARMOUTH BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Apostle, 3/1 Aim Higher, 7/2 Vital Gold, 9/2 Invincible Dream, 20/1 Hazaz, 66/1 Our Boy Billy, 66/1Selbaar, 100/1 Flashbak, 100/1 The Mighty Lohan. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Aim Higher and Vital Gold are respected newcomers and Invincible Dream shaped like a horse with a future on his debut, but APOSTLE unquestionably sets the standard on the figures and is armed with plenty of experience.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones] 4 debutants and 4 last time outers ( who could improve with 2nd run) 4 under 14/1 and 5 under 66/1 makes this an ideal probability race. Apostle has Hayley Turnips onboard and has 2 2nd places in class 3 good to firm maidens. This is a class 5 so we would hope the horse will at least place again. SHORTLIST 5pm - Elfsborg v Fola Esch - 1.08 home. - A swedish side able to score 2 minimum at home in all league matches thus far are playing a clubside from Luxembourg. Should be an easy win shouldn't it in this Europa League match. 1.07 currently 730pm - Fulham v NSI Runavik - 1.05 home - complacency the only way Fulham can lose surely against a Faroe Islands Club Side in this Europa League match. 745pm - Germany (W) v Nigeria (W) - 1.04 home - the German ladies usually score 3 or more when priced to do so, but note their scoreline v Canada and Norwegians 1-0 struggle at 1.05 odds yesterday against Burkino Faso. 1159pm - Mexico U17 v Panama U17 - 1.32 home - playing at home but a closer look indicates less than impressive victories in this tournament so far and are playing a Panama side who have proven to be very defensively minded. 230 HAYDOCK - 3 under 80/1 here and a 1/3 favourite for 2 places makes this an outstanding probability race . 1.09 to place for Excavator in this 2 year old maiden. 2 2nd places augurs well. 300 HAYDOCK - 3 horses and 2 places -2 horses under 6/1-Silverheels the favourite. Will this 6/1 horse run as an outsider? 905 LEOPARDSTOWN - far too early to make an accurate call here. I would look nearer to 9pm than 11am and keep an eye on the Millins/Katie Walsh ( Ruby's sister) combo on Johnny McGeeney. 840 NEWBURY - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 20/1 makes End or beginning look like a good probability bet to place. 220 PERTH - 3 under 33/1 for 2 places but this is a selling hurdle so caution advised. There are better races. 210 YARMOUTH - 9 runner race, 5 under 50/1 - 1.09 for Apostle to place. 4 under 14/1 and 5 under 50/1 - -2 year old maiden - 4 horses are debutants and 4 horses are one time outers. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 5pm - Elfsborg v Fola Esch - 1.08 home - surely Elfsborg, in good domestic home form, have far too much for a Luxembourg club side. They should be motivated by this Europa League early round match. 730pm - Fulham v NSI Runavik - 1.05 home - -Premiership side v Faroes Islands - complacency the only killers for Fulham surely? 1.05 for Fulham on Betfair. 1.01 at Ladbrokes. The bookies are expecting a massacre, making this 1.05 value in context. 745pm - Germany (W) v Nigeria (W) - 1.04 home - 1.01 again with the bookmakers.
these 3 teams together in the multiples at Betfair is 1.17. This seems to me a value bet . Usually Betfair multiples reduce the odds they put in a multiple but they have Germany women at 1.04 ( 1.01 with ladbrokes), and similar better odds than bookmakers for Elfborg and Fulham. 230 HAYDOCK - Excavator surely has an outstanding chance of placing doesn't he? 3 horses only under 66/1 for 2 places - illiquid market at present. 840 NEWBURY and 905 LEOPARDSTOWN need to be looked at nearer the race time. The former is an oustanding probability race. 210 YARMOUTH - the only concern I have with this race is that it is a 2 year old maiden featuring 4 debutants and 4 one time outers open to any type of improvement as they learn . As things stand, though, Apostle has 2 2nd places in class 3 maidens and runs in a class 5 here. 4 under 14/1 and 5 under 50/1 here makes this a 5 horse race for 3 places. 1.09 to place. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday, 30 June 2011
30/6
For me today, Betfair Multiples seem in unnecessarily generous mood if we compare the odds on their coupons with the bookmakers. The multiple featured at the base of this message looks outstanding. 2 1.01 shots with the bookmakers are 1.04 and 1.05 with Betfair multiples, and accumulated, that effect gets greater.
*****ONE A DAY I will be opting for the Multiple today , backing Elfsborg, Germany (W) and Fulham today in a 1.17 multiple. I have an accompanying video which you can view which shows how to place the bet at http://www.viddler.com/explore/Chriskeating/videos/42/
Now if 2 1.01 shots at the bookies lose, along with a 1.08 shot who is 1.05 with the bookies, then I will take the hit. How about you?
Coax placed 7th yesterday and it just goes to show that without doing proper analysis with the proper betting markets, I cannot make good decisions.
Back to today and everything is in order.
5pm - Elfsborg v Fola Esch - 1.08 home. Elfsborg are a team I know well having researched them twice already this season in the league. The UEFA Europa League should see the matches go with the odds as each team will want a good run -the Europa League could be a way into the Champions League. Sweden v Luxembourg and Elfsborg beat Syrianska recently . Read the research from the other day and you will know that Elfsborg so far have managed to score 2 or more at home. Now logic dictates that the Swedish league is far stronger than any from Luxembourg - we only have to look at the international Luxembourg team record.
5pm - Honka v Nomme Kalju - 1.32 home - Finland v Estonia and not much to go on bar the odds.
6pm - Ferencvaros v FC Ulysses - 1.29 home - well known Hungarian side v Armenian side. Hungarian season ended 22nd May but they did play a friendly 18th June, perhaps with this match in mind. Armenian side are still playing.
6pm - Varazdin v FC Lusitans - 1.07 home - Croatian side v Andorran side but a Croatian side who were in very poor form with 6 losses in last 7 in the league and 1 cup match in May 2011. Will the Andorran side be as poor as their international side.
730pm - FK Renova v Glentoran - 1.38 home - Macedonian v Northern Ireland side. Both sides have had friendlies recently.
730pm - Fulham v NSI Runavik - 1.05 home - Premier League v Faroe Islands team - Fulham's last match was on 22nd May 2011 - not much else I can say really - Premier League team in action and there should be goals.
730pm - Jagiellonia v Irtysh Pavlodar - 1.31 home - Poland v Kazakhstan in another UEFA Europa League match.
745pm - Germany (W) v Nigeria (W) - 1.04 home - 8-0 in a friendly in November 2010 and priced for a repeat. But we saw with Norway ladies yesterday that these tournaments featuring Women or under 17's can be rife with surprises. The Nigerians lost 1-0 to France in this tournament. The German ladies won 2-1 against Canada - they were 2-0 up and comfortable enough. Will Nigeria show another defensive display against the Germans . France are a good side in this Women's International sphere. As you know the Germans only lose against USA and win the rest.
9pm - Germany U17 v USA U17 - 1.37 home - last head to head in 2007 saw a 2-1 win for Germans. Last 2 matches for Germans saw 2 clean sheets and 3-0 and 2-0 wins over Burkino Faso and Panama. 2 of last 3 losses for Germans have been against Holland, the other was v Serbia.
USA were shocking against Uzbekistan . losing, and lost twice v Mexico. Again, we need to look at these matches with a realisation that these under 17's can be unpredictable.
1159pm - Mexico U17 v Panama U17 - 1.32 home - only 1 loss for Mexico in their last 12 matches was 6-2 v Uruguay. This World Cup is taking place in Mexico which should help Mexico surely? Panama have lost to Germany and Ecuador in this competition,. In their last 12 matches, Panama have seen 8 1-0 scorelines, 4 wins and 4 losses. Other scorelines? 0-0, 1-1. The only scorelines not featuring just the one goal scored by both teams were last 2 matches, 2-0 v Germany and 2-1 v Ecuador.
How tight will Panama be today against a team you would expect would be motivated by home support ( or will they be nervous?)
Mexico have won 3-2 against Holland and 2-1 v Congo in this competition, but the 3-2 v Holland came care of a 2-0 Mexico lead at halftime, 2-2 draw and a missed penalty for Holland then a 94th minute Mexican winner.
Their 2-1 win over the Congo saw Mexico 1-0 up. Congo got 2 men sent off, drew 1-1 until a Mexican 80th minute winner.
Under closer inspection, it seems the refs are rather partial to ensuring a Mexican victory with Fergie time winner and , if that doesn't work, reduce the opponent's team to single figures.
With this in mind, watch out for a Panama side who could be frustrating to beat. Against Ecuador, Panama scored first and then got a man sent off. After that, Ecuador scored 2.
WIMBLEDON
215pm -
Wednesday, 29 June 2011
29/6
No bet today alas as I am viewing the markets too early but some examples below of what I would focus on to get my one a day. The Norwegian ladies odds, if correct, points to goals. The tennis sees the seeded top 4 all in action. Will they all prevail? I would focus on the shortest priced ( Djokovic and Murray both 1.12) - caveat - the later on we go in a tournament, the stronger the opponents get which , logically, points to a lay of short prices where the liabilities are miniscule and the upside ( remember this is 5 sets) can be great. REmember to lay only to trade not as an outright bet.
Horse racing wise, it is far too early to be definitive about anything as the betting markets are all showing SP and not odds. As you know I like 8 runner, 3 place races and the 430 Catterick ticks the boxes there, and it is on the flat, and as a bonus, we have a Mark Johnston favourite in Coax ( I would like to have seen Fanning or Fairley onboard)
Normal service resumed tomorrow as I am back in Ireland
2pm - Norway (W) v Equatorial Guinea (W) - 1.04 Norway - only one value angle in here and it is GOALS! Guinea have been good in their African Division, and not trounced at all. So perhaps a lay of 1.04 initially? I don't know. The odds are so short as to not exactly make the liability worry money.
Norway can score against the right opponents - 7 against Macedonia, 4 against Holland, 5 against Finland. How much worse than Finland are the Guinea players? We will never know as there is no collateral form. This market on Betfair, I suspect, will not grab usual football traders' attentions and thus be illiquid in those goals markets we want to exploit. 1.04 signals an over 4.5 goals bet /trade
515pm - Brazil (W) v Australia (W) - 1.32 Brazil - 10 wins and 2 draws in their last 12 - Brazil drew with Canada in a friendly. Watch out for Marta, she is likely to be amongst the scorers. The Aussies are likely to be fit and enthusiastic and offer some resistance but eventually succumb?
REcent Aussie losses against South Korea and Germany were 2-1 results and friendlies. If they can keep the Germans tight ( and Aussies scored first) they could do the same for BRazil. Remember these FIFA tournaments outside of the men's first teams, are great for layers of short odds ( FIFA under 17 mens world cup for instance).
THe Aussies have beaten MExico and England recently.
9pm - Brazil U17 v Ecuador U17 - 1.36 home - speaking of the under 17's, the BRazilians appear here. As recently as the 4th April this year, Brazil beat Ecuador 3-1 and this is recent enough of course to be valid, and provide us with a guideline. I suspect goals here if recent Brazil and Ecuador matches and historic head to heads are anything to go by. A goals bet also covers the potential of a shock. If the 3-1 in April was accurate though, this 1.36 could be a good price.
430 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Coax, 3/1 Al Burkaan, 6/1 Azimuth, 6/1 En Fuego, 10/1 Adorable Choice, 10/1 Dan´s Martha, 10/1 No Quarter, 14/1 Johannesgray.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have plenty to prove but that's not the case with COAX (nap), a reliable sort who has a good chance at the weights and who should be suited by the return to a sound surface back at a course that suits his style of racing.[Richard Young]
8 runners - 3 places, and as I write ( 820am), 3 under 10/1 makes the Mark Johnston trained Coax interesting for a place.
750 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Iceni Girl, 11/4 Parley, 4/1 Costa Del Fortune, 10/1 Make Up, 12/1 Gooseberry Fool, 14/1Reemeya, 16/1 Gypsy Ballad, 33/1 Accustomed, 40/1 Catherine Laboure.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Parley takes the eye on paper and the betting should give an idea of what may be expected butICENI GIRL sets a fair standard on her second at Sandown and can make her experience tell.[Frank Carter]
A good race to look at nearer to 750pm
220 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Brave Beauty, 9/2 Latin Connection, 8/1 Bob´s Ticket, 8/1 Money Tree, 33/1Legbeforewicket, 100/1 Supreme Dawn.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BRAVE BEAUTY sets the clear standard and, assuming she stays this trip, should be able to land her second win over hurdles.[Chris Wilson]
There are only 4 horses under 33/1 here for 2 places.
WIMBLEDON
1pm - TOMIC v DJOKOVIC - 1.12 Novak
1pm - TSONGA v FEDERER - 1.18 FEDERER
3pm - A MURRAY v LOPEZ - 1.12 MURRAY
FAith in these seeded players to eventually get through. At this stage of a major tournament surely such short odds would be layable for traders as the opponents will be competitive?
I have neglected Nadal as he had a foot injury which might resurface.
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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One A Day
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