1 APRIL

*****ONE A DAY -

745pm - Peterborough v Bournemouth - 1.94 home - back over 1.5 goals at 1.21. a 95% over 2.5 goals record is on our side, as is a 100% over 1.5 goals record at home for Posh.

No bet yesterday although the Hannon/Ryan Moore did the job

FRIDAY

3pm - Illychivets v Shakhtar - 1.29 away Ukrainian top flight and Shaktar have 6/6 in head to heads making them obvious contenders here. Last 2009 matches at Illychivets were 2-1 and 2-0 wins for Shaktar.

Ukrainian top flight not available at soccerstats so I will try to find out what I can.

1st v 13th

ILLY RECENT HOME FORM - DDLWWLLDD - winter break between November and February. After Feb, form of 2-2 draw . Only match since Winter Break.

Only 2 wins at home in the last 12 matches in the league)

ILLY RECENT FORM OVERALL ( NOTE only 3 recent league matches after the Winter Break -3 friendlies too I have ignored) - WLLDWDL --WDL since WInter Break includes 4-0 away win, 2-2 draw and 3-1 away loss. Goals involved - over 3.5 goals in all 3 post Winter Break matches.

GOAL TRENDS - more difficult without soccerstats. 5 of 6 matches in 2011 over 2.5 goals ( 3 matches friendlies though)

Have conceded in 8 of last 9 matches .

STREAKS - 3 league matches in 2011 over 3.5 goals.

SHAKHTAR - RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWWL ( league form only away) - Shaktar have played 5 friendlies and 2 champions league matches recently. They have mysteriously played 2 friendlies on 24th and 26th March 2011.

WLW -only league matches played in last 12 for Shakhtar.

GOALTRENDS - only 2 matches played away since Winter Break are 1-0 away loss and 1-0 away win.

A difficult match to research because of the WinterBreak.

4pm - CSKA Sofia v Sliven - 1.15home ( illiquid market) - Bulgarian top flight and again a return from a Winter Break. CSKA have only played 4 matches in their last 12 in the league - the rest have been friendlies. Sliven have played 4 since the break in the league LWLW 1-0,1-0, 3-0, 3-0 - an inconsistent side!!

Not enough form to go on ( recent league form) and an illiquid market precludes any real trading interest.

530pm - Admira Wacker v First Vienna - 1.18 home - Austrian 2nd division. Likely to not be liquid enough. www.futbol24.com will offer you your stats as will www.soccerway.com

730pm - St Pauli v Schalke - 2.34 away - only 1 league head to head of interest and that was a Schalke 2010 league win 3-0 which makes this 2.34 away a big price.

16th v 10th - after putting up a good fight , St Pauli have sunk back into the relegation zone.

ST PAULI RECENT HOME FORM - DWLDWWLL - The first 5 matches of 2011 saw 2 draws and 3 wins for St Pauli , including DWW at home. Since then, 2 losses .

ST PAULI RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDDWWWLLLLL - again a really standout 2011 and then suddenly 5 losses on the trot have really put paid to that optimistic start to 2011.

St Pauli have beaten 11th and 13th in the league ( Schalke are 10th). An argument could be made for St Pauli getting something.

5 losses on the trot, and 2 losses on the trot at home really have to be addressed.

ST PAULI GOAL TRENDS - last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Have failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 matches ( coincidentally all losses) - failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches.

57% over 2.5 goals at home.Concede 16 and score 7 in first half hour of matches. Concede a whopping 15 goals in last quarter of an hour.

Have failed to score in only one of last 8 home matches and that was against 3rd placed Hannover.

ST PAULI STREAKS - 4 home matches without a draw . Current losing streak of 5 matches - 8 matches in total without a draw.Opponent scores first in 63% of matches.

Only 6 points difference between these 2 teams means points are an urgent matter for both sides.

SCHALKE RECENT AWAY FORM - DLWWDLLL - some solace for St Pauli perhaps that Schalke have lost their last 3 away matches.Schalke have not won any of the away matches against bottom 6 sides.LDLDL - 3 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats.

SCHALKE RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLDWLDLWL - the word inconsistent best describes this form? -unable to string together a sequence at all. Schalke have only scored 9 goals away all season. RAul has scored 11 all season, and only 1 away from home. Therein lies all of Schalke's away woes.

GOAL TRENDS - only 2 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals - have conceded in last 5 matches - have conceded in 69% of away matches.

STREAKS - 3 match losing streak away - 4 away without a win - only 2 draws in last 15 matches .

2 very poor sides with standout losing records clash in this 6 pointer. a difficult match to fathom initially. Perhaps a lay the draw match given the need for points.

No draw in 8 for St Pauli - only 3 draws at home all season - only 2 draws in last 15 for Schalke.

745pm - Peterborough v Bournemouth - 1.94 home

HEAD TO HEADS – only one recent head to head a 5-1 home win for Bournemouth

LEAGUE POSITION – 3^rd v 6^th - Peterborough are still in there with a chance of 2^nd.

HOME TEAM

PETERBOROUGH RECENT HOME FORM – WWWDWDWW – good form at home –have only lost 3 at home all season, one against Brighton.Against 2^nd and 4^th, Peterborough scored 4 goals.

PETERBOROUGH RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLWWDWWWWWLD - only 2 losses in 11 matches.Shocking away form – have lost away to all of top 10 they have played but markedly different home form 13 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses.

PETERBOROUGH GOAL TRENDS – 95% of home matches over 2.5 goals!! – Average 3 goals per match at home and conceding 1.78 at home per match.

4,2,4,5,4,2,1,3,6scored at home recently. Scored a massive 56 goals in 2^nd half of matches. Scored 41 in last half hour of matches.

Have only failed to score in 4 matches all season.
PETERBOROUGH STREAKS – 11 matches without defeat at home.

AWAY TEAM

BOURNEMOUTH RECENT AWAY FORM – LWLDWWWLL - no draw in 5 away. Have not beaten any of the top 15 sides away from home. Against top 5 sides,. 2 score draws against 1^st and 2^nd, and 2-0 losses against 4^th and 5^th Playing 3^rd today.All wins have come against bottom 7 sides away from home.

BOURNEMOUTH RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWLWDDWWLLLD – no win in last 4.

BOURNEMOUTH GOAL TRENDS – 44% of away matches over 2.5 goals.1.22 goals conceded away from home.Have failed to score in 1/3^rd of away matches.

4 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals.Conceded in last 4 matches.Have conceded a massive 16 in the last quarter hour in matches.

BOURNEMOUTH STREAKS – no draw in 5 matches away from home.No win in 4 matches overall.

LOOKS VERY OBVIOUS – Over 1.5 goals?

Dundalk's evening races will be revealed through the market race by race in this early part of the flat season.

450 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dressing Room, 11/4 Calypso Magic, 11/4 See The Smile, 9/2 Rainy Champion, 33/1Abernethy, 40/1 Dancing Gizmo, 40/1 Serenata Mia.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: People are quick to be suspicious of horses who finish second a lot but Calypso Magic bumped into a subsequent Listed winner on his final start last season and his form warrants respect. However, it's not difficult to be persuaded by DRESSING ROOM who may prove the stronger stayer over this trip and represents a stable that's won five of the last nine runnings of this race.[Steven Boow]

4 horses under 20/1 in the betting but only 2 places. 183 days without racing for Dressing room but Fallon up for Mark Johnston is very appealing.

230 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Lovey Dovey, 7/4 Eighteen Carat, 9/2 Jago River, 12/1 Hannah Jacques, 16/1 Harris Hawk, 40/1 Monty´s Brig, 50/1 Grey Locker, 50/1 Media Stars, 66/1 Indian Snow, 100/1 Tommy Gun.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks to be between LOVEY DOVEY (nap) and Eighteen Carat and, in receipt of 13lb, the former gets clear preference. A repeat of her hurdling debut second at Musselburgh in January may well be good enough but, given her achievements in bumpers, there must be a decent chance she can improve on that form. [Mel Cullinan]

5 under 50/1 here and 2 obvious contenders.

300 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Jammia, 11/2 Dancing Art, 13/2 Luso´s Lad, 10/1 Fill The Power, 12/1 Skybull, 25/1Katapult, 40/1 Mocha, 66/1 Cherry Cake, 66/1 No Way Hozay, 100/1 Rocky Bear.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JAMMIA is very hard to oppose after winning by a wide margin in a better race than this on his hurdles debut last time, albeit on significantly softer ground. There are several possible forecast options, with marginal preference for Dancing Art. [Mel Cullinan]

2/5 - - - -5/1 and obvious contender in a less than obvious day.

20/1 winner in heavy last time out so slight niggle that the win may have been because he stole a lead in heavy ground.

From 20/1 to 2/5 is quite a leap.

710 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Majuro, 7/4 The Which Doctor, 12/1 Plush, 12/1 Yossi.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Which Doctor might consent to put it all in on his debut for new connections but course expert MAJURO is a safer option in what looks a match.[Andrew Mount]

4 horses and 2 places makes this an obvious 50/50 race for the places.

SHORTLIST

Another day where the flat season begins and we have to just hold fire until there is good readable form. Far too many flat runners coming back from layoffs.

745pm - Peterborough v Bournemouth - 1.94 home - 1.21 over 1.5 goals in the hope the goals keep flowing. Remember, you will very rarely see a side with a 95% over 2.5 goal home record.

450 MUSSELBURGH - it's 11am now and it may be too early to pin our colours to the mast here in this maiden. What we do know is there are 4 horses under 20/1 and Dressing Room represents Johnston and has an eyecatching Fallon booked. Only 2 places though. 1.51 to place recounts this is early flat season and there are 2 places.

230 NEWCASTLE - the market favours Lovey Dovey here 1.16 to place with Eighteen Carat close 2nd at 1.24 to place. Clear rounds of course.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

745pm - Peterborough v Bournemouth - 1.94 home - 95% home record over 2.5 goals.All home matches this season have been over 1.5 goals.

230 NEWCASTLE - one of the 2 should place, and to be honest both should place.

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