HEAD TO HEADS – 1-0 Atalanta home win the only relevant head to head .
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 12th
HOME TEAM
MODENA RECENT HOME FORM –WDLWDDLLWW – against top 6 , lost 1-0 to Siena at home, won 2-1 over Novarro , lost 2-0 to Varese and 2-1 to Reggina. Not a hint of a draw there!!
MODENA RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWDDLDLDWWDWW – solid recent form overall but of the 8 matches they have played home and away against top 6 sides, Modena have lost 7 and win 1 .
MODENA GOAL TRENDS –2 1-0’s in the last 2 matches. – 35% under 2.5 goals Only one of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept 4 clean sheets in the last 6 matches.
Have scored in all of last 6 matches
MODENA STREAKS- 2 match winning streak at home. No draw in 4 at home .No defeat in 6 overall.
AWAY TEAM
ATALANTA RECENT AWAY FORM – WWDWDWDD – a reason why the draw is 1.8? Not that compelling! Majority of draws away come against top 10.
ATALANTA RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWWDDWWDDWDW – alternate sequencing here between wins and draws
ATALANTA GOAL TRENDS – 25% away matches over 2.5 goals. Poor 2.5 goals stats for both sides.Kept clean sheets in 44% of away matches. Only 3 of last 15 matches over 2.5 goals. Kept a clean sheet in only 2 of last 6 matches. Have scored in all of last 7 matches.
ATALANTA STREAKS – no defeat in 8 away from home and 17 overall.
CONCLUSION –so what do we make of a match whose draw is most unusually odds on? Under 2.5 goals looks a distinct possibility in case you are a little suspicious about backing a draw. I would also lay Modena ( and that naturally would cover a draw too)
HEAD TO HEADS – 1-1 Liverpool home draw, 2-2 Liverpool home draw, 0-0 Man City home draw, 3-0 City home win. A lot has changed though with new managers and new playing staff so these head to heads may be redundant.
LEAGUE POSITION – 4th v 6th. City cannot win the title but can get a European spot, only 2 points off 3rd place. Liverpool are 8 points off 5th placed Spurs so seemingly this is a season to forget and they will doubtlessly be thinking about summer hols already with nothing to gain or lose.
HOME TEAM
LIVERPOOL RECENT HOME FORM – WWLWDWWDW – good form at home of late and have recently beaten Man Utd ( albeit with the latter in Champions League mode I think) – Liverpool are unbeaten against top 3 so far, winning 2 and drawing with Arsenal. Liverpool’s only losses at home have come against bottom 4 sides!!!
LIVERPOOL RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLWLLDWWWWDLWWL – 6 wins in last 9 is good form and has propelled Liverpool to 6th. Recent wins against United and Chelsea and a win away at Wolves was good as well. Lost 3-0 to Man City at Man City but that was under a different manager,
LIVERPOOL GOAL TRENDS – 53% overs at home – toss of a coin.Scored 26, conceded 12 at home this season. 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Clean sheet in only one of last 5 matches. Liverpool have scored in all of their last 13 matches.
LIVERPOOL STREAKS – 6 home matches without defeat. 4 matches overall without a draw.
AWAY TEAM
CITY RECENT AWAY FORM – WDWWDLDLL – includes a recent loss away at Chelsea and away at Man Utd. Against Arsenal it was 0-0.
CITY RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWDWLDWLDWLW – inconsistency shown in the sequence of LDW’s. City have only won 1 match against top 4, 1-0 at home against Chelsea.
CITY GOAL TRENDS – 47% overs like Liverpool – 50/50 really whether this is overs/unders. Only 1 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals.City have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3 matches ( coincidentally 2 home matches). City have failed to score in only 1 of last 7. They have failed to score in 2 of the 3 away matches against top 3.
Only 10 conceded in the first half of matches. Extremely good defensively either side of half time, conceding only 3 goals in the last quarter hour of the first half and first quarter hour of the 2nd half. Score first in 61% of matches, nearly 2/3rds
CITY STREAKS – 5 away matches without a win. 2 away without a draw. Lost last 2 away matches coincidentally against top 4 sides.
CONCLUSION – Liverpool are missing Stevie Gerrard, but now have a superb striking line. Liverpool have a great record against top 4 sides at home and City have not beaten any of the top 6 they have played.
A difficult match to weigh up with all of the recent managerial and player changes which might leave form redundant. On the face of it, City look vulnerable away? Perhaps opt for an early 0-0 back to lay trade if City adopt their negative stances against top teams.
HEAD TO HEADS – 3-0 Zaragoza home win, 2-0 Zara away win, 1-1 Zara away draw.
LEAGUE POSITION – 17th v 16th -a real relegation scrap with Zara most vulnerable. Immediately these matches can be unpredictable as they are literally season defining matches.
HOME TEAM
ZARAGOZA RECENT HOME FORM – WWWDLWW – great recent form at home for Zara – home form could be crucial to staying up. Have beaten 3rd and 7th in their last 2 home matches. Tend to generally lose against top 6 , and , of the bottom sides, lost 3-5 at home v Malaga.
ZARAGOZA RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLWWWDLLDWLWLL – 3 losses in last 4 not helping.Slight vulnerability against bottom 3 home and away with draw, loss, loss, win, draw.
ZARAGOZA GOAL TRENDS – 60% overs at home. Overs/unders/overs/unders/overs in last 5 matches a bit inconsistent. Have only scored 4 goals in the first half hour all season and conceded 17.
ZARAGOZA STREAKS -2 match home winning streak, 3 without a draw, , 5 overall without a draw. You would expect a draw is of little use to either side tonight.
AWAY TEAM
GETAFE RECENT AWAY FORM – WWDLDDLL – no win in last 6 away – unbeaten away to bottom 9 sides though with mainly draws.
GETAFE RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLWDLDDLDLL – very poor form which may see them slip into the bottom 3.No win in 8 matches.
GETAFE GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs away from home. Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals and 2 prior had 2 goals in them. Have kept a clean sheet in only one of last 12 matches. Have scored in 4 of last 5 matches. Start off well – have scored 17 goals in the first half hour this season.
GETAFE STREAKS – no win away in 6, and 8 overall..
CONCLUSION – Getafe look layable here initially given Zara’s recent home exploits and Getafe’s poor form. BUT this is a true 6 pointer with both sides hovering ever nearer that bottom 3 berth.
615 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 The Rainbow Hunter, 3/1 Ballyvesey, 6/1 Gotoyourplay, 14/1 Cold Harbour, 20/1Another Puzzle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE RAINBOW HUNTER (nap) would probably enjoy slightly easier ground but that's nothing like a serious enough doubt to consider opposing him on these terms. That said, an on-song Ballyvesey would be no pushover.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
3 under 10/1 but as this is an evening race, better approached nearer race time.
300 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Scriptwriter, 13/8 Masterful Act, 9/2 Mr Supreme, 12/1 Nalim, 12/1 River Music, 25/1 Into The Light, 33/1 Izzy Bella, 40/1 The Dagda, 40/1 Tipsy Nipper, 66/1 Saga Surprise.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Scriptwriter didn't need to run to anything like his best when getting off the mark at Sedgefield but he's been capable of useful form in the past and commands respect in another uncompetitive contest. However, in receipt of nearly a stone and with the step up in trip likely to suit, MASTERFUL ACT may be able to improve past him.[Steven Boow]
3 under 20/1 here should shorten the field for those involved in a place ( clear round assumed)
320 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Mr Muddle, 5/4 Fennis Ted, 7/1 Rebel High, 20/1 Castle Myth, 33/1 Candlefort Lady, 33/1Mrs Peacock, 33/1 Royal Mile, 66/1 Late Red.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MR MUDDLE has had his limitations exposed at a higher level recently but he should still be hard to beat in this grade. Fennis Ted made an encouraging hurdling debut and may prove the main threat.[Chris Wilson]
I sniff a potential gamble? Candlefort Lady, 33/1 in the betting forecast, is 7//1 now, has Paddy Brennan Booked and is returning from a 168 day absence!
On the face of it, this is a great place only race, 8 horses, 3 places and 4 under 20/1
450 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Citrus Mark, 3/1 Just Beware, 10/1 Airedale Lad, 10/1 Cloonavery, 10/1 Drawback, 10/1Sovereign Spirit, 14/1 December, 20/1 Bridge Of Fermoy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Just Beware has a good record here but CITRUS MARK (nap) has arguably been let off quite lightly with just a 4lb rise for winning on his handicap debut and may well have more to offer.[Chris Wilson]
4 under 10/1 here and a 10/11 fav
530 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Lord Ofthe Shadows, 4/1 Serious Spender, 7/1 Safari Storm, 16/1 Aquasulis, 16/1Courtland King, 20/1 Witty Buck, 25/1 Foolscap, 25/1 Illustrious Lad, 50/1 Middleton Flyer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Likely a good opportunity for LORD OFTHE SHADOWS to go one better following his second in what looked a stronger maiden than this over C&D last week. Serious Spender appeals most of the newcomers.[Adrian Cook]
Chance Hannon/Hughes one time out 2 year old in a race of 6 debutants?
Nice analysis of last run "This colt´s sales price increased from 30,000gns as a foal to 70,000gns as a yearling and he showed plenty of ability, picking up well after having to be niggled to stay in touch with the early leaders. He can be expected to win next time before stepping up in class."
635 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Izzi Top, 7/2 Crystal Etoile, 13/2 Shelovestobouggie, 14/1 Serial Sinner, 16/1 Lunar Phase, 16/1 Mrs Dee Bee, 20/1 Apparel, 50/1 Allez Leulah, 50/1 Ambala, 50/1 Corvette, 66/1 Viking Rose, 100/1 April Belle, 100/1Frosty Reception, 100/1 Shaunas Spirit.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: 1,000 Guineas and Oaks entry IZZI TOP was a big eyecatcher when a strong-finishing second to her stable-companion Devastation in a similar 1m maiden at Doncaster last October and is surely going to take all the beating on her return. Crystal Etoile and Shelovestobouggie can follow her home.[Adrian Cook]
4/5 currently and should place if the Guineas and Oaks entries are realistic.
SHORTLIST
745pm -Modena v Atalanta - 1.79 the draw!!! - extremely interesting that the draw is the favourite here and Atalanta is 2nd in the league and could go top with a win. Looks eminently layable given the motivation for Atalanta.
Under 2.5 goals looks a strong candidate, safer would be under 3,5 goals but the markets are illiquid.
8pm - Zaragoza v Getafe - 2.16 home - 1.39 over 1.5 goals as both sides need that win? Getafe look layable here too in the match odds market, based on recent form. But form can go out of the window when relegation threatened teams meet.
300 HEXHAM - 3 under 25/1 -Scriptwriter is 1.15 to place, Masterful Act ( in receipt of a stone!) is 1.22 to place and the each way value alternative is Mr Supreme , the only other horse under 25/1.
320 PLUMPTON - 4 under 20/1 here makes this an obvious race as there are only 8 runners 2 and 3 places. Mr Muddle is 1.25 to place, and Fennis Ted is 1.38 to place. Up in distance for Mr Muddle.
530 WINDSOR - a race full of debutants and a once raced 2 year old is perhaps not the recipe for betting success.Lord of the shadow though has had the run at this venue, represents Hannon/Hughes and should make it 2nd time lucky. 1.1 to place and 1.45 to win.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST - a niggly day all in all. The 2 football matches are difficult to read, although my inclination would be to lay this 1.79 draw but you are very rarely going to see an odds on draw and a 0-0 correct score at 4/1 - the draw is at 8/11 with the bookies as well
300 HEXHAM - 3 under 25/1 and scriptwriter at 1.15 to place looks obvious here.A return to class 4 should see him place.
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