| 04.12.2010 | D1 | Montpellier HSC | 1-2 | Lyon | |
| 02.05.2010 | D1 | Montpellier HSC | 0-1 | Lyon | |
| 23.12.2009 | D1 | Lyon | 1-2 | Montpellier HSC |
LEAGUE POSITION -
HOME TEAM - LYON
LYON RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDWDWWDW - a hint that the match will go one of 2 ways? 4/5 of the draws are score draws so over 1.5 goals? Only 1 loss at home was a 1-0 loss to St Etienne on 25th September 2010.
LYON RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWLDWWDWWDDWL - only 2 losses since the 25th September both away losses. Logic may dictate, then, a lay of Montpellier? 8 of the last 9 draws have been score draws.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% over 2.5 goals at home I suppose down,in part, to the 1-1's and Lyon conceding an average 0.5 goals at home. Superb stat. Lyon have scored 29 and conceded 8 at home this season.Only 2 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 3 of the last 3 matches but in only 3 of the last 6 matches. Since the 25th September, have only failed to score in 2 matches . Have only conceded 8 goals in the first half, and between the 16th and 45th minute, have conceded only 3 goals,. So if Lyon are entering the 16th minute without conceding, they will be the most likely scorers if there is to be a goal in the first half.
LYON STREAKS - 12 at home without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - MONTPELLIER
MONTPELLIER RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLDDWDDDW - a number of draws and unbeaten in last 7 matches away for Montpellier. Interestingly, Montpellier have lost 3-1 and 4-0 to 1st and 2nd and Lyon are 3rd. 5 of the 6 away draws have been 0-0 so this may be a scoreline we need to insure against today?
MONTPELLIER RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDDWWLDWDLDLWDL - only 2 wins in last 10 matches for Montpellier have both been 1-0's and late goals 75th and 85th minute ( which hints that these matches could have added to the 0-0 tally?) Against top 3 sides home and away, home win 1-0 over Lille, away loss 3-1
Home loss 1-2 to Marseille, 4-0 away loss
Home loss 1-2 to Lyon, AWAY TODAY!
MONTPELLIER GOAL TRENDS - 33% over 2.5 goals away because Marseille score an average of 0.6 goals and Lyon at home concede an average of 0.5 goals . Don't expect a goal avalanche this evening ( or do we, as Montpellier conceded 7 away to top 2? - oh the joys of football research). Only one of last 3 over 2.5 goals but 3 of last 5 over 2.5 goals. Have kept clean sheets in 60% of matches away from home. Have failed to score in 53% of away matches.
Have kept only 1 clean sheet in last 6 matches.Have scored in each of last 5 matches. Montpellier have only scored 1 goal in the first quarter of an hour this season. Now, remember that Lyon have conceded only 3 goals in the 16th-45th minute this season, and we have a reasonable argument for a lay of Montpellier or a back of Lyon in the hope they score first in the first half.
MONTPELLIER STREAKS - 7 away matches without defeat so Lyon are meeting Montpellier at the wrong time!
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - mixed messages today.
Mixed Message 1 - Montpellier have lost 3-1 and 4-0 away to 1st and 2nd in the league ( Lyon are 3rd)
Mixed Message 2 - the form and goal stats all point to a very tight match goals wise.
Which will prevail this evening? In any case I feel a 0-0 insurance bet is warranted. A quite superb scoring times stat for you too. The form and stats overwhelmingly favour a tight match, but is it just the case that Montpellier find the top 3 a step too far?
0-15th minute - Montpellier have scored only 1 goal all season.
16th-45th minute. Lyon have conceded only 3 goals all season. The 0-15th minute is when Lyon are vulnerable but they are playing a side, like Stoke yesterday, unable to score early on. If Lyon survive to the 16th minute, expect them to score if there is to be a goal in the 1st half.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 05.12.2010 | D1 | OGC Nice | 1-0 | Olympique Marseille | |
| 11.04.2010 | D1 | Olympique Marseille | 4-1 | OGC Nice | |
| 05.12.2009 | D1 | OGC Nice | 1-3 | Olympique Marseille | |
| 13.05.2009 | D1 | OGC Nice | 0-2 | Olympique Marseille |
Last result looks anomolous to me.Indeed it took a 92nd minute goal for Nice to win this match. In essence , then, Marseille should not lose this encounter if head to heads are accurate and have the potential to cut loose goals wise. Remember this is a local derby!
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 14th. This is the game in hand that Marseille have over Lille and a win will take them 1 point clear at the top of the league. This becomes a vital win therefore. As to Nice, 3rd from bottom are on 36 points, Nice are on 39 points, so a win could do for Nice as well and if you thought the Premiership was tight, well this French League is as tight as it gets.3rd from bottom on 36 points. 3 teams on 38 points and 3 teams on 39 points.
HOME TEAM - MARSEILLE -
MARSEILLE RECENT HOME FORM - WDDWWWLWD - recent loss against League leaders at home and it was a 90th minute winner for Lille so slightly unlucky of Marseille to lose that one.. Last draw saw Marseille take the lead, and the draw before was against 3rd placed Lyon,so generally we can argue that aside from the top 3, Marseille are winning at home. 2 2-2 draws against 13th and 15th may just be a coincidence ( Nice are 14th). Poor form against bottom 7 which envelopes Nice - 2-2 draw, 1-0 win, 1-2 loss, 1-1 draw, and 1-0 win.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDDWDWWWWLWWWDW - recent loss against league leaders and recent draw a 2-2 draw saw Marseille lead.
GOAL TRENDS - Marseille have scored 1,2,2,2,1,2,2,1,2,2 in most recent matches. That's some consistency, especially from the 2's. Priced today to score at least 2 and have scored 2 or more in 3 of 4 head to heads. 60% over 2.5 goals at home. Clean sheet in 33% of matches. Have only conceded 11 goals in the first half all season. Score first in 54.8% of matches. Opponents lead in only 12.9% of matches so the hope is that Marseille can score first in the first half. 7 of the last 9 matches have been over 2.5 goals with 6 2-1 scorelines , 5 provided by Marseille.
MARSEILLE
AWAY TEAM - NICE
NICE RECENT AWAY FORM - LDDDLLWDD - win was against St Etienne with 2 2nd half goals.3 1-1's and 2 0-0's in those draws. The 0-0's were against 2 of the bottom 3 sides. Have not beaten the top 6 away from home. Against top 4, 1-1 draw with Lille was back on 29th August and not typical or recent, 1-0 loss to Lyon, 0-0 draw with PSG ( all of these matches November 2010 and earlier) Their opponents have upped their form markedly since. Only 2 wins away all season , and one was the 2nd match of the season.
NICE RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWLLWDWDDDW - again those draws are appearing for Nice and help to contribute to a 7 match unbeaten run. On closer inspection, these results are dubious. 1-1 away draw with Toulouse saw a Nice 90th minute equaliser. 2-2 draw with Lyon saw Lyon 2-0 up and Nice score 2 goals in the 90th minute , both penalties ( ref was on the score draw?), and the 1-1 draw away to Montpellier saw a 73rd minute own goal get the draw for Nice.
NICE GOAL TRENDS - 13% of Nice's away matches over 2.5 goals is a huge STANDOUT STAT, but note that 4 away matches were 1-1's and 4 away matches were 2-0's although given the general late goals for Nice, some of these 1-1's and 2-0's may not have been successful over 2.5 goals trades. Nice score an average 0.53 away and have failed to score in 60% of matches. when they do score it seems to involve a huge slice of luck.
2 of last 3 matches have been over 2.5 goals but they form part of a larger picture where only 2 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals and only 3 of last 22 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Nice have conceded in all of their last 4 matches. Nice have scored in all of their last 5 matches. Nice have only scored 8 goals away from home all season.
NICE STREAKS - 7 without defeat but you know I hope how lucky they have been, 3 without defeat away from home,
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Nice look to be a bunch of lucky bar stewards if recent results are anything to go by, and could conceiveably draw here with a goal ricocheting off the goalkeeper's arse in the 97th minute! Loads of stats to chew on, the STANDOUT STAT is the 13% over 2.5 goals stat away from home, but there have been 8 1-1 and 2-0 scorelines too.
Marseille must win this match to go top and will be motivated. This looks an ideal match to trade Marseille in the match odds as they could lead at some stage. Recent Marseille home form is very strong. Loss was against league leaders who needed a 90th minute winner. MArseille have scored 2 goals in 7 of the last 10 matches ( the other 3 they scored 1) which is an amazingly consistent trend. 6 of the last 9 matches have seen Marseille win 2-1. Only 2 losses all season for Marseille at home, one in first match of season was a blip and the other was against league leaders who needed that 90th minute winner.
Nice have not beaten top 6 sides away from home.Only 2 wins away all season for Nice, one was the 2nd match of the season so questionable! Very dubious recent form for Nice sees 2 90 minute penalties against Lyon, a 73rd minute own goal and a 90th minute equaliser. So a recent 7 match unbeaten streak is not as impressive as it looks. Nice have only scored 8 goals away all season, but have scored and conceded in each of last 4 matches.
I can't help thinking that Nice are a lucky bunch and even their head to head win over Marseille came from a 92nd minute goal last time out. I expect Marseille to lead at some stage.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 20.02.2011 | Cup | Fulham FC | 0-1 | Bolton Wanderers | |
| 14.08.2010 | PR | Bolton Wanderers | 0-0 | Fulham FC | |
| 06.02.2010 | PR | Bolton Wanderers | 0-0 | Fulham FC | |
| 28.11.2009 | PR | Fulham FC | 1-1 | Bolton Wanderers | |
| 14.03.2009 | PR | Bolton Wanderers | 1-3 | Fulham FC |
Extremely tight last 3 matches and 3 Premiership draws in the last 3 .
LEAGUE POSITION
14th v 8th.Fulham should be safe on 39 points but Sparky may want to see 40+ before cracking open the Baby Cham. Bolton are in limbo but are still performing even though they gain little.
HOME TEAM - FULHAM
FULHAM RECENT HOME FORM - DDLWWWDWW - scored 3 in last 2 home wins. Superb home form should ensure Premiership survival and is vital as away form is dire. Only 1 win away all season which makes tonight's home fixture even more important. Only losses at home have come against Man city, Tottenham and West Ham ( the London factor with the latter 2?)
FULHAM RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWLWDDDWLWLD - you can guess where the losses are coming from - away !
FULHAM GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 50% of home matches. Opponents score first in 48.5% of matches so enhanced bettors at the ready! Last 2 matches under 2.5 goals but were 1-1 and 2-0 matches and prior to those, previous 3 were all over 2.5 goals. Only one clean sheet in the last 6 matches. Have only failed to score in 2 of last 9 matches, and they were against the top 4 sides.
FULHAM STREAKS - 6 at home without defeat - 2 match home winning streak.
AWAY TEAM - BOLTON
BOLTON RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLLDLL - it's Bolton's home form keeping them where they are!Have only beaten the bottom 2 away from home and one of those matches was the 2nd match of the season. Fulham are the same price as Stoke were yesterday - if only they could replicate Stoke's win. All 5 away draws have been 1-1 .
BOLTON RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLLWLWDWLLWW - wins naturally all coming at home and a particularly satisfying 90th minute winner against the Arse last time out.
BOLTON GOAL TRENDS - 38% over 2.5 goals not helped by the 5 away 1-1 draws. Have conceded in all away matches. 4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals includes only 2 away matches and only one of those was over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 5 of last 6 matches. Have scored in 8 of last 9 matches.
BOLTON STREAKS - 9 away without a win. 2 match away losing streak, 5 matches overall without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - immediately Bolton look layable by dint of the fact that they are away from home and nothing more! Inconclusive goal trends here. Last 2 Premiership matches have been 0-0 - worth a cover if you fancy Fulham this evening? Fulham have won 5 of last 6 at home. They have kept a clean sheet in 50% of home matches.Bolton have lost 8 of last 9 matches away. All 5 away draws 1-1's so if the odds are big enough 0-0 and 1-1 covers? Bolton have conceded in all away matches.
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Magic City, 11/4 Miss Work Of Art, 8/1 The Penny Horse, 14/1 Dawn Lightning, 33/1 Ewell Place.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The three unbeaten runners are likely to dominate and for all that The Penny Horse and Miss Work Of Art have to recommend them it is difficult to get away from MAGIC CITY who made a big impression at Newbury. Miss Work Of Art may be the one to follow him home.[Frank Carter]
Hannon/Hughes fav now 1/4 with next bet 4/1 then a leap to 14/1 - a 2 year old 5 furlong conditions stakes race. 1.25 win, 1. 1 place.
415 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Margot Did, 7/2 Libranno, 6/1 Madany, 7/1 Aneedah, 9/1 Marine Commando, 9/1 Perfect Tribute, 10/1 Cape To Rio, 16/1 Murbeh, 33/1 Penny´s Pearl.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: These weights offer a fine opportunity to Margot Did but she was below her best at the end of her 2yo career and has not run this season. For those preferring some 2011 form, LIBRANNO's second in the Craven suggests a bold run with this drop back in trip, while Madany shaped well and may well have been unlucky not to take a big prize at the same meeting.
2 favs at 9/4, one with a 200+ day absence and Librano having a run as recently as 13 days ago and a distance winner. 5 under 16/1 should dominate for the places.
530 BALLINROBE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Rattan, 13/2 Safari Sunup, 7/1 Up Ou That, 8/1 Glenstar, 8/1 Massinimoss, 9/1 Sir Whinstone, 14/1Exit To Anywhere, 16/1 Blue Vic, 25/1 Benefit Evening, 25/1 Hevelius, 33/1 Barbabella, 33/1 Baresi, 50/1 Godico, 50/1 Lackabane Jessie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RATTAN has done enough to take a race such as this and whatever beats him should win. The market can clarify the pecking order of the remainder, none of whom are particularly solid. [Johnny Ward]
Rattan is a price gapper for Mullins/Townend with 2 2nds already in maiden hurdles should place with a clear round.
800 BALLINROBE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Killultagh Queen, 7/1 Gusda, 7/1 Talkin´ Tough, 8/1 Shorecliffe King, 10/1 Madame Mado, 10/1Rickardstown, 12/1 Do You Follow Me, 12/1 Nocturnal Knight, 12/1 Seven Days, 14/1 Page One Two Nine, 16/1 High Talk, 20/1Dromore Express, 25/1 Canal Cottage, 50/1 Media View, 50/1 Ponmeword.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for KILLULTAGH QUEEN to make amends for an expensive fall last time. If he can manage an error-free round Talkin' Tough might test her. [Alan Sweetman]
A clear round should see Killiltagh Queen home but how much impact will the last fence fall last time out have on the horse?
610 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Albaqaa, 7/2 Fremen, 5/1 Just Five, 13/2 Handsome Falcon, 8/1 Bold Marc, 100/1 Pengula.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop back to 1m may not be totally ideal, particularly if there's a lack of pace, but useful handicapperALBAQAA should be hard to beat if running to anywhere near his mark dropped to claiming grade. Fremen, who was 8-10 at this sort of trip last year, could bounce back returned to 1m for the first time this season.[Steven Boow]
4/6 - - -- 5/1 price gap despite near 300 day absence.
710 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Highest, 11/4 Malacca Straits, 8/1 Chapter Five, 12/1 Body Language, 33/1 Donna Elvira.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGHEST took a decent step forward when runner-up in what is traditionally a strong maiden at Newbury on her reappearance and should take plenty of beating at this weaker level with the step up to 1m4f likely to suit. Malacca Straitsisn't so stoutly bred but looks the most realistic danger if her stamina holds out.[Steven Boow]
Strong favourite despite this being a maiden fillies event.
245 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Sivola De Sivola, 13/8 Lord Redsgirth, 11/2 Rain Stops Play, 8/1 Luso´s Lad, 20/1 Gleann Na Ndochais, 25/1 Four Fiddlers, 33/1 Brave Spartacus, 33/1 Corbury, 40/1 Tipsy Dara, 50/1 Northern Flame, 66/1 Monty´s Brig, 66/1Tomzatackman, 100/1 Warnell View, 200/1 Ashgrove Diamond.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SIVOLA DE SIVOLA can make the most of a big drop in class, having contested races won by high-class pair Spirit Son and Bobs Worth the last twice, finding Grade 2 company far too hot at Cheltenham last time. Lord Redsgirth looks the main danger.[Steven Boow]
2 likely to dominate?
320 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Eight Is My Number, 13/8 Mic´s Delight, 6/1 Blenheim Brook, 25/1 Waterski.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With just four runners, tactics will play a big part and Mic's Delight could be hard to pass if allowed an easy way in front. However, EIGHT IS MY NUMBER is less exposed and his partner rarely makes mistakes in these affairs.[Stuart Redding]
Front 2 11/10 with next best 8/1 and 2 places on offer. Eight has McCoy onboard.
255 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Greyfriars Drummer, 100/30 Matilda´s Waltz, 6/1 Circus Act, 15/2 Mir Hy, 15/2 Ugo, 8/1 Around The Clock, 17/2 Apticanti, 10/1 Tartan Jura, 66/1 Geminus.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GREYFRIARS DRUMMER sets quite a decent standard on last week's improved second in an AW maiden and may be the answer, though there isn't that much to go overall here, so a watchful eye on the betting is advised.[Mel Cullinan]
Tightish betting heat with some unknowns here but the Johnston/Fanning Greyfriars is 2/1 fav - short head 2nd last time out and down a furlong today. 9 runners and 3 places.
330 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Count Bertoni, 9/4 Cono Zur, 15/2 Hail Promenader, 8/1 Strike Force, 10/1 Aussie Blue, 10/1 Ours, 20/1 Mingun Bell, 33/1 Forzarzi.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Recent winners Count Bertoni and Cono Zur should ensure a truly run race which will suit HAIL PROMENADER who has slipped to a favourable mark and is back at what is arguably his best trip.[Frank Carter]
CAtch them while they're hot? Count Bertoni 7/4 fav
405 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Hawaafez, 9/2 Antigua Sunrise, 6/1 Dubai Bounty, 13/2 Fun Affair, 15/2 Sea Of Galilee, 17/2 Snow Dancer, 10/1 Viewing, 14/1 Bollin Dolly.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HAWAAFEZ (nap) is the really interesting one, with her promising Beverley reappearance second having been boosted significantly by the colt that beat her since. Well-bred and entered in the Oaks, she looks open to further improvement in a race a 3yo won in 2009. Last year's winner Antigua Sunrise may be next best, ahead of Dubai Bounty.[Mel Cullinan]
Big price gapper here this Hawaafez.
440 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Pretty Diamond, 9/2 Madison Square, 5/1 Dew Reward, 13/2 Dark Dune, 10/1 Bradbury.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In-form PRETTY DIAMOND has been found an uncompetitive race and ought to be very hard to beat if in the same form again as when just edged out off this mark at Windsor last time, when 8l clear of the third. Dew Reward may be the main danger.[Mel Cullinan]
Only 2 places here but another Johnston horse a warm favourite.
SHORTLIST
6pm - Lyon v Montpellier - 1.43 home - back Lyon with a 0-0 insurance bet perhaps?
6pm - Marseille v Nice - 1.38 home - backing motivated teams lately has paid off. Marseille go top with a win. Nice are unbeaten in 7 but some very dubious results.
8pm - Fulham v Bolton - 1.82 home - solid home form v woeful away form should signal a Fulham win, but 3 draws on the trot now and low scoring affairs. Back Fulham with a 0-0 and 1-1 cover makes this 1.82 bet pay out 1.53 equivalent.
200 ASCOT - Magic City is 1.25 win and 1.1 place and should place with ease for Hannon/Hughes albeit in a 2 year old 5 furlong race.
530 BALLINROBE - Rattan to place albeit in an illiquid market at present. Has a great chance
710 NEWCASTLE - Highest should place but betfair SP required so early on as market is illiquid.
320 PERTH - 1.20 the front 2 and Eight is my number has MCCoy onboard.
405 PONTEFRACT- Hawaafez is 1.29 to place in an 8 runner race for 3 places
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