8/4

AZ alkmaar look very obvious apart from the head to heads niggles. Alderley Rover is in a 3 horse race for 2 places, is his trainer's only runner on the card and has a 2/3 chance of placing with a clear round.

E Street Boy is interesting turned out again, albeit under a new rider who I think claims 7? This is an 8 runner race for 3 places where 4 are under 33/1 only. On that basis alone, even an underpar performance could see E street boy place in the first 3.

*****ONE A DAY - 245 FONTWELL - ALDERLEY ROVER TO PLACE ONLY - 1.27 CURRENTLY BUT AN ILLIQUID MARKET - USE BETFAIR SP*****

The hope is this horse, who has had numerous completed chase runs under his belts, justifies his trainer's journey as his sole runner here today, provides us with a clear round and does not get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race. Novice chases can be difficult but the hope is this horse is proven safe over chase fences,

Zarkandar won well at a slightly bigger price than Big Bucks, but I am cursing not backing Grand Crus again at a relatively big price to place ( again) ,and not backing Porto who did a demolition job on Spartak. I told you they were reliable beggars!!

My only wish is that these opportunities fall on different days!!

IN PLAY

1pm - Hong Kong FC v Pegasus - 1.45 away - it seems from what I can remember , that Hong Kong FC are emminently opposable, but of course limited research will confirm this. Hong Kong have only got 3 positive results in their last 12 matches - 2 matches were League Cup matches and the last a 2-1 home win which is most unlike Hong kong ( winning!!!)

Hong Kong are bottom currently and today are playing 3rd placed team.

2,3,1,4,4,3,2,6,4 ,1 conceded in league games by Hong Kong.

LWWLWL for Pegasus in the league. They have also been involved in the AFC Cup and League Cup.

Last 7 matches in all competitions have easily been over 2.5 goals..

Head to heads and in the league in September , Pegasus won 5-1

530pm - SCR Altach v FC Gratkorn - 1.39 home - Austrian 2nd flight and it looks as if the league restarted around March.

545pm - Zwolle v Helmond Sport - 1.71 home - 1st v 3rd - must win for Zwolle as they are only 3 points ahead.

HEAD TO HEADS - DRAW , home win Zwolle, home win Helmond, home draw Helmond.

This could go either way if judged on head to heads so perhaps a neutral goals bet if the research uncovers enough to warrant.

ZWOLLE RECENT HOME FORM - 10 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss at home - WWWWWLWWWDD -the loss was a 3-4 home loss against Emmen.

3 0-0's on the trot for Zwolle and I was caught out by one of those , not expecting Zwolle to draw at home for the 2nd consecutive match.

Surely this is the kind of sequence that must end, but it may reflect something wrong with Zwolle currently. Zwolle have not played the top 3 at home yet so we do not know what to expect.

ZWOLLE RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDWLDWWWWDDD - as said, 3 0-0's on the trot.

ZWOLLE GOAL TRENDS - 64% clean sheets at home and 64% over 2.5 goals at home. - another match where opponents do not score? but will Zwolle score?

Average 2.57 goals at home, so must break this no scoring cycle soon ( even if only to retain some interest in the title race)

Last 3 matches as we know 0-0's

Interestingly all 3 draws at home have been 0-0. Zwolle should not lose at home, but can they score?

ZWOLLE STREAKS - no defeat in 5 at home ( 8 in total), no goal conceded in 3 at home ( 6 in total) so they are defensively adept but not taking advantage of that by scoring at least one goal.

HELMOND RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWWLLWW - some good form away with draws sparce.9 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats away. Can Helmond help to break the 0-0 stranglehold?

Only 1 match against top 3 was a 1-0 away loss to 2nd place.

HELMOND RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLWLWWDWD-the 2 losses were away to 2nd AND 2nd BOTTOM!!

HELMOND GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs away from home. Have not had a 0-0 away from home, and only 1 0-0 all season.

5 of last 7 ( 2 of last 4) matches have been over 2.5 goals. Have only failed to score in one of last 7 matches.

HELMOND STREAKS - no draw in 8 away matches is a slight positive if we want to get this 0-0 sequence finished. No defeat in 5 overall.

Sequencially, we should be expecting Zwolle's 0-0 run to end sometime, but against 3rd in the league where the match could be tight?

745pm - AZ Alkmaar v Breda - 1.37 home - 4th v 11th 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1 head to heads in 2009 and 2010 immediately could hint at a lay of 1.37 AZ? These are consistent tight matches. AZ won the only home match of those 4 above 1-0.

AZ RECENT HOME FORM - WWDDWLWW -only 2 defeats at home all season have come against 2nd and 7th.

AZ RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWLLWWLWWW - 5 wins in their last 6 is great recent form at the right part of the season ( although I suspect the title is out of reach unless we get some amazing results in the interim)

AZ GOAL TRENDS - average 2 goals scored at home - have failed to score at home in only 7% of matches.

71% over 2.5 goals does not fall in line with the head to heads ( neither does the 1.37 I already mentioned) This could be one of those matches ( as has happened previously) where we simply ignore head to heads in favour of most recent form.)

4 of the last 5, and 7 of the last 9 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

2 2-2 draws at home to 10th and 12th coincidental when we are playing 11th today?

Only losses at home against top 7 sides.

AZ STREAKS - 2 match winning streak at home, 4 matches without a draw at home.9 matches without a draw overall.

BREDA - RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLLLLW - 4 losses in last 5 away for Breda puts the ball in Az's court.

have lost all 7 of the away matches they have played against top 9 sides which is a compelling stat for us to ignore the head to heads perhaps? 2,4,3,3,2,3,4 the goals conceded in those 7 away matches against top 9 sides. 10 defeats, 2 wins and 2 draws away .

BREDA - RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLWLLLW - - 7 losses in 9 and now we get a picture of why AZ are so short despite tight head to heads.

BREDA - GOAL TRENDS - concede on average 2.35 goals per away match. 86% of away matches are over 2.5 goals. Have only kept 7% clean sheets away.

17 matches on the trot now conceding at least a goal. TEnd to score an anomolous 15 goals in last quarter of an hour so trade out perhaps at 75 minutes?

Conceded 19 goals in the first half hour of matches.

BREDA - STREAKS - 5 matches away without a draw, 9 matches in total without a draw.

CONCLUSION - this is one of those matches where you have to make a decision that either the head to heads are valid and must be accounted for, or the recent form and THIS SEASON'S shocking form for Breda supercedes previous head to heads.

What I am saying is that we should not be shocked if this is ultra tight as has previously occured, but we must acknowledge Breda have conceded 2 or more against the 7 teams from the top 9 they have played away , have an 86% over 2.5 goal rate away, concede 2.35 away per match on average and have lost 7 of their last 9 matches.

8pm - Shamrock Rovers v Bray - 1.35 home 1-0, 0-0, 4-1, 2-2 shows the unpredictability of the Irish top flight in the head to heads. Only 5 matches into the season and I will leave this be I think until there is more substantial form ( anyone wanting to checkout the current stats will be pleased to know the Irish League is at www.soccerstats.com)

Aintree continues today, and Big Bucks continues on his merry way. He won we a nice amount at Cheltenham ( I backed him and break even on Grand Crus using Fairbot) but I did not play up my winnings here. More fool me.

230 AINTREE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Wayward Prince, 7/2 Quito De La Roque, 9/2 Master Of The Hall, 7/1 Golan Way, 8/1Robinson Collonges, 8/1 The Giant Bolster, 12/1 Radium, 33/1 Sarando.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WAYWARD PRINCE showed he can handle this track when successful over hurdles a year ago but the key here is whether he responds favourably to the visor. If he does, it could make his jockey's life easier and, with a suitably strong pace possible, he can confirm RSA form with Master Of The Hall. Mudlark Quito De La Roque has every chance on form but drying conditions wouldn't help his cause.[Paul Johnson]

The front page of the Racing Post , I believe, recounted Paul Nicholls' superb run in chases at Aintree. This makes Robinson Collonges enticing at the price.

This is a tight betting market though with only 1 real " outsider" in Sarando. 3 places and 8 runners though is good for place only backers.

A competitive Aintree card today where yesterday we had very obvious contenders.

The Dundalk card begins at 630pm and as the flat is just starting, the markets should point the way. Relying on them some 7 hours previous is perhaps not wise.

210 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: Evs American Ladie, 11/4 Lucy´s Perfect, 11/2 The Bishops Baby, 13/2 Good Faloue, 12/1Mekong Miss, 33/1 Belle De Fontenay, 50/1 Bestwood Lodge.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: American Ladie may well be keeping a bit for herself but should take plenty of beating if running to anywhere near her official mark with blinkers fitted. However, from a punting perspective it's not tempting to take a short price about her and LUCY'S PERFECT, who definitely won't shirk the issue judged on her game Taunton success in December, is an appealing alternative.[Steven Boow]

American Ladie has been a one a dayer at least once, but this is only a 2 the place race .

245 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Alderley Rover, 9/4 Aldertune, 13/2 Vagrant Emperor.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quo Video is top rated on official figures and beat ALDERLEY ROVER at Market Rasen in January but the Donald McCain-trained gelding gets a 7lb pull for a 5l defeat and that may be enough for him to reverse the form. Furthermore, his stable is 3-5 at Fontwell in recent seasons and he makes the long journey from Cheshire as their only representative on the card.[Steven Boow]

3 horses and 2 places makes this another superb probability race. We must acknowledge it is a novices chase so clear rounds appreciated!

320 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 E Street Boy, 6/1 Rossbrin, 7/1 Curragh Dancer, 8/1 Graylyn Amber, 20/1 Island News, 40/1Keckerrockernixes, 40/1 Quelclasse, 50/1 Karingabay Queen.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Barring accidents this should be a fourth straight win for E STREET BOY. Rossbrin andCurragh Dancer look likely to scrap it out for second. [Mark Brown]

A hint of perhaps "missing the boat" here with E Street Boy, although once a one a dayer, he is still apparently 9lb well in so should place again in this 8 runner race, with only 4 under 25/1 and a price gap of 4/9 - - - -- 7/1

Always a risk with multiple handicap winners ( more so over obstacles) but the market is not relenting in its confidence.

515 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Las Verglas Star, 3/1 Dads Amigo, 7/1 Brave Dream, 10/1 Maverik, 10/1 Silver Turn, 14/1Bussa, 20/1 Sergeant Suzie, 25/1 Insolenceofoffice, 25/1 Stamp Duty.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from LAS VERGLAS STAR (nap), who showed improved form on his first run since being gelded on his reappearance at Musselburgh last week. He's 3lb ahead of the handicapper, despite his penalty, and is taken to beat Dads Amigo. At bigger odds Bussa is one to keep an eye on back in trip.[Richard Young]

Another ahead of the handicapper here - trust him to run well again?

645 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Shouda, 7/2 Money Money Money, 4/1 Acropolis, 5/1 Rare Coincidence, 7/1 Dot´s Delight, 10/1 Fine Tolerance.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This race revolves around whether or not there is a significant market move for handicap debutantSHOUDA, who is from a stable whose runners rarely miss when gambled. He's the only one open to improvement and can surely step up on his maiden efforts.[Ron Wood]

Handicap debutant for Master Curley in Shouda not been hugely backed just yet, but watch out!

SHORTLIST

1pm - Hong Kong FC v Pegasus - 1.45 away - illiquid betting markets mean we are not getting value odds in any markets accompanying this match. Hong Kong look worthy of taking on here in some capacity. Goals as well are expected.

545pm - Zwolle v Helmond Sport - 1.71 home - 3 0-0's on the trot for a team who have only a 3 point advantage must be addressed.64% clean sheets at home, have not conceded in last 6 matches . 0-0 cover bet today and a back of Zwolle in the match odds incase they score first?

Helmond have not had a 0-0 away.

Zwolle, when compared with Porto, are quite simply untrustworthy and have caused me 2 losing one a dayers recently.

745pm - AZ Alkmaar v Breda - 1.37 home 2 1-0's and 2 1-1's in head to heads points to a tight match but Breda have lost 10 away,lost all 7 against the top 9 sides they have played away, conceding 2 minimum in each match, 86% over 2.5 goals away, concede an average 2.35 away, have lost 4 of their last 5 away and 7 of their last 9 overall against an AZ side who have won 3 of their last 4 at home and 5 of their last 6 overall and have a 71% over 2.5 goal stat.

It all points to the recent form superceding the head to heads does it not? 1.2 over 1.5 goals might be an option, but a back of AZ covers a 1-0 win ?

210 FONTWELL - faith in American Ladie continuing to place, albeit now in a 2 the place race? 1.22 or thereabouts to place.

245 FONTWELL - pure probability and the hope of a clear round for Alderley Rover - 1.27 to place.

320 FONTWELL - e street Boy to place again? 3 wins on the trot, one as a one a dayer and now 1.14 to place here. The market believes he can exploit his favourable mark again. S Clements takes the ride and he has had a 2612 in last 4 rides so is full of confidence.

Only 4 under 33/1 means that this is a good each way race for the other 3 under 33/1.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

745pm - AZ Alkmaar v Breda - 1.37 home - we could, to be safe , back 0-1 and 1-1 scorelines which would reduce the bet to around - over 1.5 goals at 1.2 might appeal but might be reliant solely on AZ.13/14 matches at home have been over 1.5 goals.

245 FONTWELL - Alderley Rover the only representative on the card for Mcain Jr a hint? 3 horses and 2 places and we hope for a clearround with these novice chasers.

230 FONTWELL - 8 runners , 3 places, 4 under 33/1 makes E Street Boy a candidate here to place at least .