HEAD TO HEADS
| 04.12.2010 | D2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 1-4 | Greuther Fürth | |
| 05.02.2010 | D2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2-1 | Greuther Fürth | |
| 29.08.2009 | D2 | Greuther Fürth | 2-4 | Arminia Bielefeld | |
| 13.01.2009 | CF | Arminia Bielefeld | 1-0 | Greuther Fürth |
Goals anyone? Greuther are certainly priced to replicate the 4-1 rather than the 2-1 loss of Feb 2010. Greuther have scored first in last 3 head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 18th. If results go for them, then a faint glimmer of hope in getting 3rd place. Bielefeld are down with 13 points so could be dangerous as they play without pressure although that did not stop them losing 2-0 last match.
HOME TEAM GREUTHER FURTH
GREUTHER FURTH RECENT HOME FORM - LDWDWWDLWW - only 1 loss in last 9 home matches was against league leaders so not entirely unexpected. One of only 2 home defeats all season, the other against 5th place. Fairly comprehensive against bottom 4 - 4-1 and 3-0 then threw in a 0-0 against Oberhausen. The other scorelines suggest that was an anomoly.
GREUTHER FURTH RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWDWLDWDWL - recent loss was away to 1860 and one of the goals was a penalty. Greuther also played with 10 men in the 2nd half. Losses, in last 12, are scarce though!
GREUTHER FURTH GOAL TRENDS - only 33% over 2.5 goals. at home probably because they average 0.66 conceded per home match. Indeed 47% clean sheets is nearly 1 in 2 at home without conceding. 2 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals but only 2 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals.
Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3 matches and 3 of last 5 matches.Have failed to score in 2 of last 3 matches and 4 of last 6 matches. They were playing1st,2nd, 5th, 7th, in those matches so I suppose they were entitled to struggle. Have only conceded 10 goals at home all season.
GREUTHER FURTH STREAKS - 3 at home without a draw. 2 match home winning streak.
AWAY TEAM BIELEFELD
BIELEFELD RECENT AWAY FORM - only 1 win away all season tells us that we should be looking, at the very least, to laying Bielefeld.LLLLLLWDDL - recent upsurge or rather 3 games without losing ( 2 drawing)The draw with Union Berlin was a messy one as Union had 2 men sent off. Away to top 7, have lost 6 matches conceding 2 or 3 and only scoring a goal in 3 of those matches. Judging by Greuther's exploits away, they should replicate this?
BIELEFELD RECENT OVERALL FORM -LLDLDWLDLDDL - that win wholly out of place! 5 of the last 6 draws score draws.
BIELEFELD GOAL TRENDS - 67% over 2.5 goals away from home. Have failed to score in 53% of matches away ( and Greuther keep a clean sheet in 47% of matches at home!) Concede an average 1.93 away per match. Only 1 of last 4 over 2.5 goals but 2 scorelines were 2-0's. Have kept a clean sheet in only 3 matches all season. Have failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches.
BIELEFELD STREAKS - 3 without a win away from home ( 6 overall).
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - looks like Greuther should replicate the exploits of others in the top 7 when Bielefeld come to town, and that is to score 2 minimum . What do we make of Bielefeld's recent WDDL form away. Danger of a draw? At any rate, I would hope Greuther score and lead at some stage for a back to lay trade.
HEAD TO HEADS
12.02.2011 | |||||
30.01.2011 | |||||
26.12.2010 | |||||
16.10.2010 | |||||
09.05.2010 | |||||
10.02.2010 |
Rangers generally have the upper hand and over 1.5 goals has prevailed in all cases.
Interesting with the focus solely on Motherwell
26.12.2010 | |||||
10.02.2010 | |||||
12.09.2009 |
LEAGUE POSITION 6th v 1st – Rangers are a point above Celtic who havea game in hand. Another must win therefore. Motherwell’s season seems to be over. Nothing to gain or lose.
HOME TEAM - MOTHERWELL
MOTHERWELL RECENT HOME FORM – LLDWLWLWWW – form against the Old Firm must be separated and Motherwell have lost 4-1 at home to rangers, beaten Celtic 2-0 and lost 1-2 to Hearts of the top 3. The Celtic performance was atrocious at Motherwell and followed their beating of Rangers.
MOTHERWELL RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLWWLWLLWWDD – 4 of the 6 losses away and 2 losses at home were 1-0 losses to Kilmarnock and St Mirren
MOTHERWELL GOAL TRENDS – 47% home and away over 2.5 goals. 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 5 of last 6. Have scored in 4 of last 5.
MOTHERWELL STREAKS – 7 at home without a draw, 3 match winning streak against Aberdeen, Dundee United and Celtic, scoring 2 in each occasion. No defeat in 4.
AWAY TEAM - RANGERS
RANGERS RECENT AWAY FORM – LWLWWWWW – 5 wins on the trot but just enough 3 1-0’s and against Hamilton a 1-0 after Hamilton missed a penalty. So not entirely unconvincing and then , bang, they spank Dundee United 4-0!
RANGERS RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWLWWWLWWWWWD – 4 losses against top 4 sides.Draw was an inevitable 0-0 against Celtic. Only 1 draw in last 19 matches for Rangers .
RANGERS GOAL TRENDS – 59% of away matches over 2.5 goals Average 2.05 goals away. Only 2 of last 6 over 2.5 goals a sign of those 1-0’s.Rangers have scored 10 against Motherwell home and away this season, so what changes now?
RANGERS STREAKS – 9 away without a draw, 5 match away winning streak, Have not conceded in 5 away matches. Have kept a clean sheet in 5 of last 6 matches. Have kept a clean sheet in 12 of last 16 matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – 1.53 away and Rangers have scored 10 in 2 matches against Motherwell this season – am I missing something here or is that 1.53 a superb value bet? Motherwell have won their last 3 home matches including against Celtic.Recent losses at home for Motherwell were 1-0 losses.
5 wins on the trot away for Rangers and they have been riding their luck with a missed penalty here and there!
7 at home without a draw for Motherwell and 9 away without a draw for Rangers .Rangers have kept a clean sheet in 5 of last 6 and in 12 of last 16 matches – huge stats which may hint at a back of rangers and a cover of 0-0?
HEAD TO HEADS
05.12.2010 | |||||
24.04.2010 | |||||
05.12.2009 | |||||
02.05.2008 |
The 3-2 is closer than it sounds with Dortmund 3-1 up until a late goal. 4-0 last home win and have beaten Nurnberg away last twice augurs well for today.
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 6th – 5 point cushion at the top .Nurnberg unlikely to get anything else out of this season. They could break into 5th place but are dependent it would seem on others faltering.
HOME TEAM – DORTMUND
DORTMUND RECENT HOME FORM – WWWDDWWDWW – solid at home of late. Only 1 defeat at home was in the first match of the season. 2 of last 3 draws 1-1’s although against Mainz, Dortmund missed a penalty to make it 2-0 which would have changed this game completely. Against top 7 at home, lost 2-0 to Leverkusen ( but not relevant as first match of season), beat hannover 4-1, beat Bayern 2-0, drew 1-1 with mainz in that missed penalty match.
DORTMUND RECENT FORM OVERALL – DWDDWWWLDWDWL – last 3 losses all aways and all 1-0.4 of last 4 draws 1-1 and maybe a cover of 1-1 as an insurance bet today? 3 of the 4 home draws 1-1.
DORTMUND GOAL TRENDS – 27% over 2.5 goals at home.This is because Dortmund concede only 0.46 goals on average at home, and have conceded 7 at home all season. 60% clean sheets at home. 2 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals,, 1 other 1-1 was not a winning over 2.5 goals trade. Dortmund have scored 7 in their last 2 home matches. Score first in 67.7% of matches. Barrios a key player at home. Have only conceded 1 goal in the first quarter of an hour of the first and 2nd halves this season and only conceded 9 in the first half and 10 in the 2nd half ( 7 of those coming in the last quarter of an hour) Scored an impressive 39 goals in the 2nd half.
DORTMUND STREAKS – 14 at home without defeat. 2 match home winning streak.
AWAY TEAM - NURNBERG
NURNBERG RECENT AWAY FORM – LLDDWDWLW – have not played 1st or 3rd away and drew 0-0 with Leverkusen but that was 4th match of season so may not be representative of recent capabilities.Have not beaten any of the top 10 away but drawn 1-1 4 times against 7th,8th,9th,10th and lost 3-0 to each of Bayern and Mainz. Interesting that the 1-1 crops up again and perhaps reinforces the 1-1 insurance?
NURNBERG RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWWDWWLLDWD – last 2 draws at home.
NURNBERG GOAL TRENDS – 40% over 2.5 goals away. Have failed to score in 33% of away matches, 1 in 3. Last 4 matches under 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in last 2 matches Failed to score in last match. Opponent scores first in 48% of matches, nearly 1 in 2.
NURNBERG STREAKS – no draw in 3 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Dortmund have dominated the last 3head to heads, the 3-2 scoreline was 3-1 until the end of the match. Only 1 defeat at home 1st match of season.27% overs at home signals a tight defence so Nurnberg likely to lose to nil , although both sides have shown a liking for 1-1 at home and away. It has occurred frequently. Perhaps back Dortmund with a 1-1 cover? Dortmund score first in 67.7% of matches, and Nurnberg’s opponents score first in 48% of matches ( 1 in 2) – chance Dortmund to score first today? Dortmund have scored 7 in their last 2, and given head to heads, could score 2 or 3 today.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 11.12.2010 | PR | Stoke City | 0-1 | Blackpool FC | |
| 22.09.2009 | LC | Stoke City | 4-3 | Blackpool FC |
Only 1 match of interest was the 1-0 Blackpool away win.
LEAGUE POSITION 17th v 10th - Blackpool are currently out of the top 3 by a single goal. A win of course is a must here and the hope to score more as well as goal difference might just be crucial! Stoke City have the foot off the gas and are now safe so their mental attitude might just change subtely in favour of thinking of summer holidays
HOME TEAM BLACKPOOL
BLACKPOOL RECENT HOME FORM - WLWLLLDWLLLD - last 2 draws were 1-1 but again successful over 2.5 goals trade. Have drawn against 7th -11th and Stoke are 10th.
BLACKPOOL RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLDWLLDLLLD - implosion at back end of season.
BLACKPOOL GOAL TRENDS - the piece de resistance. Have scored and conceded in all home matches this season. COncede 2.05 on average in all matches.88% over 2.5 goals. 14 of last 16 matches over 2.5 goals and the 2 that weren't were 1-1 matches which were successful over 2.5 goals trades as the 2nd goal was early. Have conceded 21 goals in the last quarter of an hour.
Have conceded in last 17 matches.Have only failed to score in 2 of last 15, naturally away matches.
BLACKPOOL STREAKS - 4 at home without a win, 7 overall without a win.
AWAY TEAM STOKE CITY
STOKE CITY RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLLLLLLD - I suppose this kind of away form is just what the BLackpool Doctor ordered! Stoke have lost 2 and drawn 1 against bottom 3 away. Blackpool have only won 3 away to teams around Blackpool's in the league.
STOKE CITY RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWLLDLWDLDW - inconsistent team overall winning, drawing and losing in turn. Last 5 Stoke wins have all come at home so they are a Jekyll and Hyde home and away team it would seem.
STOKE CITY GOAL TRENDS - 47% over 2.5 goals away from home so near to 50/50 and a hint that against the right opponents goals can be expected. 4 of the last 6 matches over 2.5 goals - the others 1-1 draws. Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 of last 12 matches. Have scored in all of last 5 matches.
STOKE CITY STREAKS - 8 away without a win.2 overall without defeat.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - another trip to the over 2.5 goal well today? It would be rude not to. Stoke are about 50/50 with their overs away so it seems they are capable of goals against the right opponents. BLackpool have conceded in last 17, Stoke have conceded in 10 of last 12 and the hope is this will continue. Slight concern with Ricardo Fuller and Etherington out for Stoke where the goals will come from for the Potters. Faith though, in the standout stat that Blackpool have scored and conceded in every home match this season? Stoke are safe so Blackpool will be the most motivated today and a speculative lay of Stoke may be a good call ?
12.12.2010 | |||||
24.04.2010 | |||||
19.12.2009 | |||||
11.05.2008 | |||||
06.01.2008 |
Real should not lose but the impenetrability of a Mourinho home record has ended this season. The Champions League hopes have ended too and Real may be mentally vulnerable tonight? 3rdMay sees the 2nd leg of the Champions League tie with Barca at the Nou Camp –will Mourinho have one eye on this match with the league all but ended?
LEAGUE POSITION – 2nd v 16th – 8 points off barca and unlikely to close the gap BUT Barca have a tricky away tie this evenng.zaragoza are on 36 points , one point off 3rd bottom so this is a must win match which could take them provisionally 12th in the league ( other results dependent)
HOME TEAM – REAL MADRID
REAL MADRID RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWWWWLD – loss broke the Mourinho 8 year league unbeaten record, followed by a 1-1 draw with Barca.
REAL MADRID RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWWWDWWWWLWDW – we know already about the loss and draw recently.
REAL MADRID GOAL TRENDS – 44% over 2.5 goals at home because Real have conceded only 8 goals all season at home. Score an average 2.93. Unders/overs/unders/overs/unders/overs are the recent 2.5 goals stats. Unders in last 2 home matches. Have kept a clean sheet in only 1 of last 5. Have scored in 6 of last 7 matches. Only failed to score in 1 home match and that was the loss to Gijon.
REAL MADRID STREAKS – 3 without defeat.
AWAY TEAM – ZARAGOZA
ZARAGOZA RECENT AWAY FORM – LWLDLLLL – 3 of last 4 away losses were 1-0 and the last one to a penalty. Against top sides away, 1-0 loss to barca, 1-1 draw Valencia, 1-0 loss Villareal ( penalty), 2-1 loss Bilbao, 1-0 loss Ath Madrid.Only 1 win away against Malaga. Have lost 7 and drawn 1 against top 10 away.
ZARAGOZA RECENT OVERALL FORM – DLLDWLWLLWLW – inconsistent but no draw in 8 matches. Jekyll and Hyde, 4 wins at home 4 losses away.
ZARAGOZA GOAL TRENDS – 31% over 2,.5 goals away and have only scored 8 away goals all season. Have only scored 5 goals in the first half hour all season ( no goals scored in 15th-30th minute)Last 2 matches 1-0;s 2 matches before that were overs.Have conceded in 4 of last 5 matches. Have failed to score in 2 of last 5.
ZARAGOZA STREAKS – 6 away without a win. 8 matches without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – another top v bottom and could conceivably end up 1-0 or Real could score the 6 and 7 they scored against opponents near to Zaragoza’s in the league. Both sides need points and I would do a throw away 0-0 in the hope it is a tight and nervy affair with Zaragoza hoping to keep it tight and Real with one eye on the Champions League. Zaragoza have scored only 8 away and have lost 1-0, to barca and Villareal and drew 1-1 with Valencia.
Wed | 02/03/11 | ||||||
Sat | 04/12/10 | ||||||
Sat | 07/08/10 | ||||||
Sat | 03/04/10 | ||||||
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Sat | 07/11/09 | ||||||
Sun | 19/07/09 | ||||||
Sat | 25/04/09 | ||||||
Sun | 09/11/08 | ||||||
Sat | 01/03/08 |
Just taking the league matches in isolation from 2009 onwards 0-1 Schalke away win, 1-1 Bayern home draw,1-2 bayern away win, 2-0 Schalke home win. Totally inconclusive and messed by all of the Cup matches
LEAGUE POSITION – 4th v 10th. Bayern need a win to go provisionally 3rd.and Schalke are safe now in mid table and coming off the back of a Champions League loss to Man Utd which may impact them negatively. Or they could do a Bolton and go out and beat opposition they are not supposed to “ in revenge”.
HOME TEAM BAYERN MUNICH
BAYERN MUNICH RECENT HOME FORM -WWWWWWLWWW – loss was against Dortmund in the match that ended a season. Since then Bayern have scored 6,1 and 5 at home and I thought the virtual end of the season would have impacted them, but 11 goals in 2 games at home rather quashes that idea. Losses have come against 1st and 5th.
BAYERN MUNICH RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWLWWLLWWWDWD – last 2 losses against top 3 sides.Last 2 draws 1-1 away draws. Have scored 4,4,5 against teams around Schalke’s at home.
BAYERN MUNICH GOAL TRENDS – 80% over 2.5 goals at home. Score an average 2.8 at home, one of the largest averages I recall. 53% clean sheets at home. Opponent leads at half time in only 12.9% of matches. Have conceded only 11 and scored 28 goals in the first half. 3 of last 4 matches under 2.5 goals but 2 of those 1-1’s Prior to that, 9 matches on the trot over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 3. Have scored in all of last 16 matches. 21 of last 22 matches over 1.5 goals. Have scored 20 goals in the last quarter of an hour.M Gomez important goalscorer at home.
BAYERN MUNICH STREAKS – 12 home matches without a draw. 3 match home winning streak. 3 home without defeat. 6 overall without defeat.
AWAY TEAM – SCHALKE
SCHALKE RECENT AWAY FORM – LWWDLLLWD – only 4 wins away, most recent against St pauli. Interestingly have won 1-0 against 3rd and 5th away. ( Bayern are 4th)
SCHALKE RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDWLDLWDWWDL – inconsistent – recent wins against 14th, 16th and 18thprobably will not scare Bayern.
SCHALKE GOAL TRENDS – 40% over 2.5 goals away.Have kept clean sheets in 33% of away matches and failed to score in 40% of away matches. 12 of last 14 matches under 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 2 but kept 2 clean sheets in last 4.Have failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches.
SCHALKE STREAKS – 2 away without defeat.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – what impact will the recent Champions League humbling by Man Utd have on a Schalke side unlikely to gain anything from the season? Bayern’s form makes them obvious starting point here as is their liking for goals at home, although, as we see against Mgladbach, they can struggle suddenly. But 2 of last 3 home games have seen 5 and 6 goals.Could let loose at home today, but head to heads show a different story and how much do we read into Bayern’s historical troubles losing 2-0 in most recent encounter? Over 1.5 goals looks solid today although an unappetising trading price.
HEAD TO HEADS
12.12.2010 | |||||
17.04.2010 | |||||
20.09.2009 | |||||
21.03.2009 |
LEAGUE POSITION – 2nd v 5th - -6 points behind United and Spurs are 4 points behind 4th placed City. Must wins for both.
HOME TEAM – CHELSEA
CHELSEA RECENT HOME FORM – DWDWLWWWWW – 5 match winning streak at the right part of the season. At home to top 5, Chelsea have played 3 and won 2-1, 2-0 and 2-0.
CHELSEA RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWLDWWWDWWWW – great recent form coming unstuck with 2 draws away and a loss at home to Liverpool.
CHELSEA GOAL TRENDS – 41% over 2.5 goals at home. 65% clean sheets at home is formidable. Average 2.05 goals at home and average 2 against top 5.Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals Have scored in last 8 matches.2 clean sheets in last 4 matches. Have scored 18 goals in last 15 minutes.Have only conceded 6 goals in the first ½ hour of the 2nd half. Malouda and Drogba important at home.
CHELSEA STREAKS – 5 match winning streak at home. 7 home without a draw. 9 overall without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - SPURS
SPURS RECENT AWAY FORM – WDWLDWWLDD – lost 2-0 away to United and beat Arsenal 2-3 away – inconclusive as that was local derby.
SPURS RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWWWLDDDWDD – 2 of the draws 0-0, 2 3-3 and 1 2-2!These draws have allowed City a way in to 4th place.
SPURS GOAL TRENDS – 56% over 2.5 goals away.Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals and 7 of last 9 over 2.5 goals ( in the middle were 2 0-0’s)
SPURS STREAKS – 3 away without a win, 6 overall without defeat. 5 draws in last 6 matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – a tough match to call this one given what is at stake.5 match home winning streak for Chelsea and 65% clean sheet record at home should make them hard to beat. Chelsea have beaten the top 5 2-1, 2-0, 2-0 and are meeting the 4th team today. 7 home matches without a draw meets a Spurs side with 5 draws in last 6 matches. Chelsea’s record against top 3 is compelling. Back Chelsea and 0-0 cover ( as Spurs have had 2 0-0’s lately?) Correct score 2-0 and 2-1 perhaps just incase Chelsea replicate the scorelines against top 5 previously.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 19.02.2011 | D1 | Mattersburg | 1-1 | Sturm Graz | |
| 27.11.2010 | D1 | Mattersburg | 1-1 | Sturm Graz | |
| 11.09.2010 | D1 | Sturm Graz | 2-0 | Mattersburg | |
| 17.04.2010 | D1 | Mattersburg | 0-0 | Sturm Graz | |
| 20.02.2010 | D1 | Sturm Graz | 4-0 | Mattersburg | |
| 28.10.2009 | D1 | Mattersburg | 0-2 | Sturm Graz |
2 1-1 draws on the trot likely to occur again? Note these were away matches and Sturm have won 4-0 and 2-0 at home head to heads
LEAGUE POSITION 1st v 9th in a league of 10.Must win for Sturm with Austria Wien only a point behind.Mattersburg are 9 points clear of bottom side and I think only 1 goes down.
HOME TEAM STURM GRAZ
STURM GRAZ RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWWDWDL - thumping 3-0 loss to 5th placed RB Satzburg and a 3-3 draw with Rapid Wien mean that Sturm have conceded 6 goals in their last 2 matches.
STURM GRAZ RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDWLDWLW - recently smashed 5 past 8th place side augurs well for today's encounter as that was an away win.
STURM GRAZ GOAL TRENDS - in a small league trends, I would argue, become magnified and out of proportion as there are fewer games to work from.27% over 2.5 goals at home for instance has less significance in this league of only 10 teams. That is a sample of 6 home matches, 3 of last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals.Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3 matches. Have failed to score in 2 of last 5. 53% clean sheets at home.
STURM GRAZ STREAKS - 2 at home without a win.No draw in 3.
MATTERSBURG AWAY TEAM -
MATTERSBURG RECENT AWAY FORM -
MATTERSBURG RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLWLDLDDWD - good recent form 4 without defeat. All draws score draws. 4 of the 5 draws at home.
MATTERSBURG GOAL TRENDS - 27% over 2.5 goals away from home echoes home stats for Sturm but remember a smaller sample over exaggerates this stat. 2 2-0's and a 1-1 in 3 away matches oh so close to over 2.5 goals Only 6 match away sample. Only 1 match in last 4 over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 6 of last 7 matches. have scored in last 6 matches.
MATTERSBURG STREAKS - 2 without defeat away, 4 overall without defeat.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - difficult to evaluate small leagues as the stats are often exaggerated by a smaller sample. Must win for Sturm but last 2 head to heads 1-1 - what is the probability of this scoreline occuring again? What do we make of Sturm conceding 6 in last 2 matches? I will not get involved in this match as it is not as clear cut, and as this is the weekend remember QUALITY OVER QUANTITY.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 11.12.2010 | D1 | AC Arles-Avignon | 0-1 | Lille OSC |
1-0 Lille win came against a 10 man Arles team and in the 93rd minute. Yikes!
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 20th and a win takes Lille top ( provisionally based on other results) Arles, like Bielefeld earlier, are adrift on 14 points. Another top v bottom, and another motivated to get a result v c'est la vie we are down!
HOME TEAM LILLE
LILLE RECENT HOME FORM - WWWDWWWDWWD - recent draws have been 1-1. At home to bottom 4, 3-0, 3-1, 1-0. A lot of 1-1 draws at home, but they have largely been confined to top 8 sides bar a draw with Nice. Outside the top 8, overwhelmingly Lille win at home.
LILLE RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWLDWWWWLDD - last 9 draws have been 1-1 and 10 of 12 draws have been 1-1, the others 0-0. Recent losses have come away and were both 1-0's
LILLE GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 over 2.5 goals at home. Have only failed to score in one home match and that was the first home match of the season.Last 3 matches under 2.5 goals but 2 scorelines 1-1.Previous 4 scorelines were over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all of last 9 matches. Have failed to score in only 1 of last 8 matches. Have scored 16 goals in the last quarter of an hour.
LILLE STREAKS - 11 at home without defeat. 3 overall without a win. Have drawn their last 2 matches 1-1
AWAY TEAM - ARLES
ARLES RECENT AWAY FORM - have not won any away.DLDLLLLDLLDD - 2 draws recently were 0-0- cover that scoreline today? Away to top 5, pretty comprehensive - 1-0 defeat by marseille, 5-0 by Lyon, 4-0 Paris SG, 4-0 Rennes. Remember the sub 1.2 sides, expect a 3 or 4 goal victory.
ARLES RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDDDLDLLDLD - draws cannot be discounted but are unlikely .
ARLES GOAL TRENDS - 44% over 2.5 goals away from home.Average 0.25 scored is the main reason.4 of the 5 draws away from home have been 0-0. Last 5 matches under 2.5 goals. Arles have only scored 8 goals in the first half all season. They have only scored 4 goals away all season. 2 of their last 3 matches have been 0-0. Arles have failed to score in all of their last 5 matches and in 6 of their last 7 matches. Arles have failed to score away in 10 of their last 11 matches.
ARLES STREAKS - 16 away without a win, and 20 overall without a win.5 matches overall without scoring.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - it all points to Lille, IDEALLY, replicating other top 7 sides and scoring 2 or 3 minimum today , probably without conceding. Ultra safe would be the 0-0 cover incase this match takes on its predecessor with a late 1-0 win for Lille.
Sub 1.20 usually allows speculative goals traders to chance over 3.5 and over 4.5 goals.
HEAD TO HEADS
12.12.2010 | |||||
05.05.2007 | |||||
09.12.2006 |
Newbies to La Liga murdered by Barca last time out.This is one of those matches where the manager foresees a win but will change the squad around. Team news thus vital.
LEAGUE POSITION 12th v 1st. Soicedad need points as they are on 38 points and 3rd from bottom are on 35 points. Barca would foresee a Real win today so need 3 points to keep the gap.
HOME TEAM - SOCIEDAD
SOCIEDAD RECENT HOME FORM – WLWLLWWWDLLW – have lost 2-1 to all of top 3 and are playing the last of that triumvirate tonight. Recent home losses v Malaga and Hercules should not have Barca worried.
SOCIEDAD RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWLDLLLLLWL – recent win against Gijon was at home.
SOCIEDAD GOAL TRENDS – 44% over 2.5 goals at home. Have kept clean sheets in 50% of home matches. Have only failed to score in 1 home match and that was against Malaga recently.Last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. 6 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 9 matches. Have failed to score in only 4 matches this season.Score first in 57.6% of matches so enhanced bettors watch out if Sociedad score first. Conceded 17 in last ¼ hour.
SOCIEDAD STREAKS – 3 at home without a draw. Lost 1-2 to 2 of top 3, playing 3rd tonight.
AWAY TEAM - BARCA
BARCA RECENT AWAY FORM – WWWWDWWDWD – Champions League hindering progress?Last 3 draws all 1-1 draws Last 4 away scorelines 1-0, 1-1, 1-0, 1-1 but were playing 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th so away form may not be as bad as the draws might indicate.
BARCA RECENT OVERALL FORM – DWWWWDWWWDW – no defeat in 31.
BARCA GOAL TRENDS – 62% over 2.5 goals away. Have scored in all away matches this season so watch out if 0-0 late on. 56% clean sheets away from home. Average 2.75 away. Have conceded only 6 in the first half all season, score first in 87.9% of matches. Opponents lead at half time in 9.1% of matches.Messi spreads goals between home and away. Pedro also useful away.
BARCA STREAKS – no defeat in 16 away, no defeat in 31 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – 1.48 about Barca is extremely tempting but we must account for Champions League next week, possible change in personnel and Sociedad’s need for a win. What do we make of the 1-2 scoreline for Sociedad against top 3 at home. Signals they find them difficult as they beat 4th and 5th at home. With this in mind , 1-1 scoreline might be of interest?
Team news vital here.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 11.12.2010 | D1 | Genoa CFC | 0-1 | SSC Napoli | |
| 30.01.2010 | D1 | SSC Napoli | 0-0 | Genoa CFC | |
| 13.09.2009 | D1 | Genoa CFC | 4-1 | SSC Napoli | |
| 22.02.2009 | D1 | SSC Napoli | 0-1 | Genoa CFC |
3 under 1.5 goals matches typically Italian. The 4-1 result is anomolous as Napoli had 2 men sent off and Genoa had 2 penalties awarded.
LEAGUE POSITION 3rd v 10th. A win takes Napoli 2nd and a hope from them that Inter falter away from home. The league title is mathematically possible I would argue but would require AC Milan to do an Arsenal.
HOME TEAM NAPOLI
NAPOLI RECENT HOME FORM -
NAPOLI RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLDWWWWLL - one home loss and one away loss last 2 matches.
NAPOLI GOAL TRENDS - 53% over 2.5 goals at home. 59% of home matches clean sheets. Have conceded only 14 goals in home matches this season. 6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals, with the exceptions a 0-0 and a 2-0. Only one clean sheet in the last 6 matches. Have scored in all of the last 6 matches. 3,2,4,2,1,1 recent goals scored in last 6 matches.
NAPOLI STREAKS - no draw in 3 at home. No draw in 6 overall.
AWAY TEAM - GENOA
GENOA RECENT AWAY FORM - WDDLDWLLDL - 3 losses in last 4 and 2 wins in last 10.Against top 9 away, lost 1-0 to AC Milan, 5-2 to Inter, beat Udinese 1-0, lost 2-1 to Roma, lost 3-2 to Juve, lost 1-0 to Palermo and Fiorentina. Expectation perhaps for a tight Napoli win this afternoon? The sole win was the first match of the season so it was not representative of recent and true form.
GENOA RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWWLLWDLLWW - 4 of last 5 losses were away losses. Recent 2 wins were at home against bottom 3 sides. Last 4 wins have all been home wins.
GENOA GOAL TRENDS - 29% over 2.5 goals away from home perhaps reinforces my earlier thought this could be a 1-0 Napoli win?Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals Have conceded in 7 of the last 9 matches. Have scored in 8 of last 9 matches.
GENOA STREAKS - no win in 4 away. No draw in 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - last 2 head to heads have only seen a single goal - significant? Only 3 losses at home plays only 4 wins away ( 2 against bottom 4 sides). Will genoa's away 29% over 2.5 goals stats dominate and produce a tight match as per those head to heads? Napoli have kept clean sheets in an impressive 59% of home matches and this could continue today? 3 losses in last 4 for Genoa and a need by Napoli to win could ensure an eventual win. Genoa have lost 6 matches against top 7, and the Udinese win can be forgotten as it was the first match of the season.3 of those losses were 1-0s' and this backs up the head to heads.
HEAD TO HEADS
12.12.2010 | |||||
21.02.2010 | |||||
22.11.2009 | |||||
28.01.2009 |
Over 2.5 goals nearly all the way. Blackburn are unbeaten at home in these head to heads .
LEAGUE POSITION – 16th v 8th – need points v thinking about summer hols – Blackburn must win or simply hope opponents fail.1 point above 3rd from bottom.
HOME TEAM - BLACKBURN
BLACKBURN RECENT HOME FORM – WDLWWLDDDL – losses at home have generally come against top 5. Unfortunate end to last match v City at home with a 75th minute Dzeko winner. Hint with draws that Blackburn are fighting at home.
BLACKBURN RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLDLLDDDLL – no win in 10 !
BLACKBURN GOAL TRENDS – 35% over 2.5 goals at home. Last 4 matches under 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 6 of last 7 matches. Failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches.
BLACKBURN STREAKS – no win in 5 at home. No win in 10 overall. Conceded 39 2nd half goals.
AWAY TEAM BOLTON
BOLTON RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLLLLDLLL – familiar with stats as did the Fulham match last week. Have only beaten bottom 2 away from home.
BOLTON RECENT OVERALL FORM – WLWDWLLWWL – no draw in 6. Last 4 losses all away losses.
BOLTON GOAL TRENDS – 41% over 2.5 goals away from home. Have conceded in all away matches. Last 4 matches all over 2.5 goals. Only 1 clean sheet in last 7 matches. Have scored in 8 of last 10 matches. Just as Blackburn score most in 2nd half, so Bolton concede most in 2nd half. ( 32 goals)
BOLTON STREAKS – All Bolton away draws have been 1-1’s no win in 10 away.no draw in 6
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – difficult match to call with Blackburn in such poor form –no win in 10 matches –they did draw 3 of their last 4 home matches and only went down to a Dzeko 75th minute goal last home match. We saw last week that Bolton were layable away from home. But Blackburn do not possess Fulham’s strong home stats. Bolton have conceded in all away matches and Blackburn have conceded in 6 of last 7 matches. Over 2.5 goals in the hope the goals are early? But Blackburn score most 2nd half and Bolton. concede most 2nd half.
Chance the 1-1 draw back? All of Bolton;’s away matches draws have been 1-1 and Blackburn have not won in 10 but have drawn 3 of last 4 home? A tricky match this one.
HEAD TO HEADS
11.12.2010 | |||||
10.01.2009 | |||||
21.09.2008 |
Only 1 recent home head to head is perhaps irrelevant given all the changes at both sides in the interim.
LEAGUE POSITION – 14th v 13th. West Brom are on 40 points and Woy does not think that is enough just yet to avoid the relegation scrap. Positive vibes therefore. Villa on 41 look, psychologically, safe.
HOME TEAM WBA
WBA RECENT HOME FORM – LLWLLWDDDDWL – goals anyone? 10 of last 12 home matches over 2.5 goals, the exceptions are 1-1 Wolves ( unsuccessful over 2.5 goals) and 2-0 City win ( both goals before the half hour) Draws have come against bottom 3 and the Arse. Win came against Liverpool with 2 Brunt penalties so a degree of luck.
WBA RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLWLDLDDDWDWWLD – loss recently at home to Chelsea so not unexpected. Great improvement under Woy. 2-2 draw with Spurs a sign too that WBA can score late and keep battling. Last 6 draws all score draws.
WBA GOAL TRENDS – 71% over 2.5 goals overall is a great stat. It is uniform both home and away. Last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. 17 of last 21 matches over 2.5 goals. Last 21 matches all over 1.5 goals.West Brom have conceded in every match bar one all season. WBA have scored in all of last 9 so this sets up an instant over 1.5 ( 2.5?) goals trade? Peter Odemwingie vital at home.
WBA STREAKS – 2 at home without a draw,
AWAY TEAM VILLA
VILLA RECENT AWAY FORM – LLDDWLDLDW – 8 of last 10 aways have been over 2.5 goals. Villa have scored 2 in their last 3 away matches. Villa have only been able to beat the bottom 3 away , all 2-1 wins.
VILLA RECENT OVERALL FORM – DWWLDDWLLDWWD – 2 away losses recently against Man Utd and Bolton and a home loss to Wolves.
VILLA GOAL TRENDS – 71% of away matches over 2.5 goals is exactly the same as WBA’s overall over 2.5 goals % so a superb stat to take with us. Alternative U/O/U/O/U unders and overs last 5 matches. 8 of last 10 aways over 2.5 goals tallies well with West Brom’s home record. 22 of last 25 matches have seen Villa concede. Villa have scored in 12 of last 13 matches.
VILLA STREAKS – 4 without defeat overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – 71% is the standout stat here – WBA’s overall over 2.5 goal percentage and Aston Villa’s % away from home. 8 of Villa’s last 10 away matches over 2.5 goals. 10 of West Brom’s last 12 matches over 2.5 goals. Last 21 West Brom matches all over 1.5 goals. The research points to a neutral goals bet surely? We would be damned unlucky if there were no goals in this match.
HEAD TO HEADS
11.12.2010 | |||||
30.01.2010 | |||||
30.08.2009 | |||||
05.04.2009 |
LEAGUE POSITION 18th v 7th – a win takes Wigan out of the bottom 3 as things stand.Everton gain little
HOME TEAM – WIGAN
WIGAN RECENT HOME FORM – WDDLDLWLWD – only 1 loss in last 4 was against Man Utd..Against teams around Everton’s in the table, a huge swathe of draws – 4 score draws and a 0-0. It seems that just outside the top 5, Wigan can cope at home.
WIGAN RECENT FORM OVERALL – DDLLDWDLLWDLWL – last 3 results were away results. Unbeaten home and away against 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th hints that Wigan could get something out of today’s match.
WIGAN GOAL TRENDS – 47% over 2.5 goals is inconclusive. Average 1.05 goals per match.Last 2 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 19 of last 21 matches. Have scored in last 2 but failed to score in 4 of 5 previous to those.
WIGAN STREAKS – 2 at home without defeat. 3 overall without a draw.
AWAY TEAM -EVERTON
EVERTON RECENT AWAY FORM – DDWDLDLLWWL – last 3 away losses against Arsenal , Bolton and Man Utd. Recent wins against Wolves and Newcastle.Against bottom 4 away, 2-2 draw with Blackpool, 3-0 win over Wolves, and 1-1 draw with West ham.
EVERTON RECENT OVERALL FORM – DDLWLWWDWDWWL – recent loss 1-0 away at United,form has been solid since away defeat to Bolton.
EVERTON GOAL TRENDS - 2,2,1,2,2,3,2,1 scored by Everton in most recent matches .41% over 2.5 goals away. Last 2 matches under 2.5 goals but 4 out of the 5 prior to those were overs. Everton have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3 and nearly kept a clean sheet against Man Utd but for a Hernandez 84thminute winner.
EVERTON STREAKS – 5 away without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – difficult match to read given Everton’s recent good form and Wigan’s good form at home to teams 5th -10th inclusive. Wigan have not lost home or away to 5th to 8thinclusive ( Everton are 7th). Wigan have conceded in 19 of last 21 matches – quite some stat. 2 draws and a win for Everton away to bottom 4, and this all points to a possible score draw today, or at least for both teams to score? Wigan have drawn 1-1 home and away to 6th and 8th in the league. Everton have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3 matches and nearly a 3rd v united.
Again there are probably better and more clear cut matches today .
HEAD TO HEADS
19.01.2011 |
2-0 up within 15 minutes then Cesena brought it back to 2-2.
LEAGUE POSITION – 15th v 2nd. Leonardo has been getting coaching lessons from Wenger in how to make your season implode and ensure you win feck all.
HOME TEAM CESENA
CESENA RECENT HOME FORM – WLLWDLDLWDDW - unbeaten in last 4 includes 2 2-2 draws.Cesena have beaten AC Milan and Lazio at home, but both matches were prior to November 2010 and since then Cesena have only won against bottom 10 sides, and all wins 1-0 and one of those was an 89th minute penalty.1-4 loss to Napoli and 0-3 loss to Udinese perhaps closer to the truth?
CESENA RECENT FORM OVERALL – DDLLDWWDLDDWW -quite strong recent form sees only 1 loss , a 1-0 to Lazio away. The 3 2-2 draws recently should be a reminder to traders to get out when your team are comfortably leading. 2-2 draw with Juve saw Juve 2-0 up, 2-2 draw with Fiorentina saw Fiorentina 2-1 up until the 86th minute, and 2-2 draw with Palermo saw Palermo 2-0 up until the 90th minute!!!!. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!
CESENA GOAL TRENDS- 29% over 2.5 goals at home. Have only scored 15 goals at home this season. Last 2 matches under 2.5 goals. 6 of the 8 matches prior to that over 2.5 goals ( or rather 6 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals. Have only scored 1 goal in the first quarter of an hour all season so layable initially for 15 minutes.
CESENA STREAKS – 4 at home without defeat. 4 overall without defeat.
AWAY TEAM INTER MILAN
INTER MILAN RECENT AWAY FORM – LLWLWLWWDLL – recent losses against AC Milan and Parma. Inter have been unable to beat top 7 away, and succumbed to 13th and 14th. Cesena are 15th,
INTER MILAN RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWLWWWWDWLWLW – 11 wins at home but going wrong away. Only 1 draw in last 23 matches saw 18th minute goal and 85th minute equaliser. Lay the draw trade successful there especially as Inter scored first.
INTER MILAN GOAL TRENDS – 47% over 2.5 goals. Have scored only 18 away. Have only scored 1 in last 3 away matches. 2 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 5 of last 7. Failed to score in 2 of last 4 matches.
INTER MILAN STREAKS – all of Inter’s last 5 away losses have seen them lose at half time and at fulltime The bookies alas have cottoned on to this and Cesena/Cesena Halftime/fulltime is only 8.4 on Betfair but is worth a tickle if you want to oppose Inter. No draw in 5.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Inter must win and could take the lead as they did at Inter before nearly blowing it. Note the 2-2 draws for Cesena –they were losing in those matches and could conceivably be losing at some stage in this match ( back Inter therefore at 1.96 and hope they lead at some stage – they don’t have to score first – and trade out if they do lead at some stage.
Cesena’s beating of AC Milan and Lazio are, for me, early season anomalies and I suspect their results against Napoli and Udinese at home are nearer the mark. Only 1 loss in last 8 for Cesena is impressive but on closer inspection 3 teams blew leads, 2 teams were 2-0 up, and in 1 1-0 win, Cesena needed an 89th minute penalty for the win.
Only one draw for Inter in last 23 matches is a huge stat.
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Azrael, Evs Trade Storm, 33/1 Mazovian.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A straight match following the defection of likely favourite Codemaster and with the benefit of a run AZRAEL is narrowly preferred to Trade
Storm.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
A 2 hore race for 2 places. back the bigger priced of the 2 under 25/1 in the place market.
540 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Address Unknown, 13/8 Bikini Babe, 10/1 Stephen´s Green, 12/1 Plum Sugar.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's a matter of some conjecture whether ADDRESS UNKNOWN can justify the 108 rating that ought to give him the winning of this. Nonetheless, he may get the better of Bikini Babe who has often competed in smart company and has a possible edge in terms of race-fitness. [Alan Sweetman]
Mark Johnston makes the journey to Dundalk with Bikini Babe who should have a chance of placing here.
435 GOODOWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Anna Salai, 15/8 Seta, 7/1 First City, 10/1 Maid In Heaven, 12/1 Off Chance, 14/1 Fleeting Echo, 50/1 Conciliatory.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Anna Salai went very close in the Irish 1000 Guineas and if her future entries are any guide, she must have done well over the winter. With no obvious pacemaker in the field, there is the possibility of a messy race and there could be some mileage in taking her on. Maid In Heaven should make the transition into a Listed-race performer this year and can make the running, but this could be the year that SETA takes off and develops into a top-class performer.[Paul Smith]
Front 2 to dominate this listed event?
310 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Frankel, 6/1 Pathfork, 8/1 Roderic O´connor, 12/1 Casamento, 16/1 Fury, 16/1 Native Khan, 33/1 Saamidd, 40/1 Dubawi Gold, 66/1 Loving Spirit, 100/1 Broox, 100/1 Happy Today, 100/1 Rerouted, 200/1 Slim Shadey.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is the moment of truth for FRANKEL who bids to cement his reputation as an outstanding colt. He did all that could have been expected of him in the Greenham and is expected to maintain his unbeaten record and confirm Dewhurst superiority over Roderic O'Connor. The unbeaten Pathfork and the Racing Post Trophy winner Casamentolook the clear pick of the remainder.[Adrian Cook]
Big price gap, big reputation and a shock should he not place surely? 1.19 to place.
SHORTLIST
12pm - G Furth v Bielefeld - 1.31 home - always dangerous to write off bottom basement sides whose seasons are over as they have nothing to lose. Furth should win with ease. recent form questionable but was against top 7 sides and this is a deal easier.
12pm - Motherwell v Rangers - 1.53 away - I know betting is not an exact science but if a team has scored 10 goals against its opponents in the last 2 meetings and is available at 1.53, well.......Rangers have kept a clean sheet in 5 of last 6 . Cover 0-0 as insurance?
230pm - Dortmund v Nurnberg - 1.48 home - back Dortmund and the 1-1 insurance bet?
3pm - Blackpool v Stoke - 2.66 away - Stoke have been poor away but 4 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals could help us with the traditional back of over 1.5 goals when blackpool at at home. 1.26.
530pm Chelsea v Tottenham - 1.51 home - interesting that Chelsea have beaten all top 5 opponents at home so far 2-1, 2-0, 2-0. Priced to be dominant today.li
6pm - Lille v Arles - 1.17 home - 0-0 will scupper this match but Arles have only scored 4 away all season so logic dictates that Lille score, Lille win . Arles have lost 5-0, 4-0 and 4-0 against top 5 as well as 1-0 against Marseille. Lille priced to replicate that.
3pm - West Brom v Aston Villa - 2.42 home - 71% over 2.5 goals throughout here is compelling for a neutral goals bet as is Roy Hodgson's claim that WEst Brom are not safe yet. 1.29 over 1,5 goals is appealing.
710 DONCASTER - outstanding probability race with 2 under 25/1 in a flat race fighting for 2 places. Alas it is some 8 hours hence.
310 NEWMARKET - it will truly be a shock if Frankel does not place today, surely? 1.19 is reasonable.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Lille v Arles - 1.17 home - should be an easy home win to take them top against a team scoring only 4 away all season. 0-0 is the killer scoreline I suspect
3pm - West Brom v Aston villa - 71% average over 2.5 goals for West Brom home and away. 71% over 2.5 goals for villa away and 1.29 for over 1.5 goals . Over 2.5 goals last 3 head to heads. 10 of West Brom's last 12 home matches and 8 of Villa's last 10 away matches over 2.5 goals.
310 NEWMARKET - a huge shock if Frankel did not place in the first 3.
710 Doncaster -THE probability bet of the day but markets wholly illiquid.
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