SATURDAY
1130am - Roma v Chievo - 1.46 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 04.12.2010 | |||||
| 16.05.2010 | |||||
| 09.01.2010 | |||||
| 03.05.2009 |
Roma have not lose recent head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION – 4th v 13th – Roma led 2-0 away at Chievo last time . Chievo look safe and Roma will not move with a win. But will consolidate 6th place.
HOME TEAM – ROMA
ROMA RECENT HOME FORM – WDLDWLL – hardly compelling or consistent. Only 3 losses at home were against top 8 sides so Roma expected not to lose.
ROMA RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLLLWDWWDLWL – Last 2 losses were at home to 7th and 8th ( juve and Palermo) - sign of a decline?
ROMA GOAL TRENDS – only 44% of home matches over 2.5 goals and 44% clean sheets at home. 3 of last 4 matches were over 2.5 goals., the exception a 2-0 home loss to juve. Have conceded in all of last 4. Have only failed to score in 5 matches all season. Have conceded a whopping 29 goals in the last half hour . Concede 72% of goals in the 2nd half.
ROMA STREAKS – no draw in 3 at home. Lost last 2 at home. Last 7 home matches all over 1.5 goals.
AWAY TEAM –CHIEVOVERONA
CHIEVOVERONA RECENT AWAY FORM –LLLDWDLLWL – recent away wins against bottom 2 .Against top 5 away ( Roma are 6th) it’s 3-1 loss to AC Milan, 1-3 win over Napoli, 2-0 loss to Inter, 1-1 draw with Lazio Roma, 2-0 loss to Udinese. The Napoli win was 3rd match of the season and may be anomalous.
CHIEVOVERONA RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWDLLLDLWDLW – last 2 draws have been 0-0’s. Last 2 wins were against bottom 2.
CHIEVOVERONA GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs away from home. 6 of last 7 matches under 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3 matches. Have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches. Only recent matches they have scored were against bottom 2.
CHIEVOVERONA STREAKS – 4 away without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – it is the stat that Chievo have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 and only scored against bottom 2 that is compelling here and should put the ball in Roma’s court. Roma have kept a clean sheet in 44% of home matches. This should see Roma score first ideally ( they concede 72% of goals in the 2nd half). Chievo it seems keep it tight but all matches against top 5 were over 1.5 goals. – 0-0 draw might be a good cover here given Roma are not in the best of form BUT Chievo find it hard to score.
1245pm - Man Utd v Everton - 1.48 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 11.09.2010 | |||||
| 20.02.2010 | |||||
| 21.11.2009 | |||||
| 19.04.2009 | |||||
| 31.01.2009 |
Goals immediately spring to mind with these 2 but we have not really had a game in “crunch time” of the Season.
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 7th. I have really been impressed by Everton of late with their recent surge which could actually threaten 5th spot if it continues. United are continuously being let off the hook by Chelsea and Arsenal and retain a healthy enough buffer.
HOME TEAM - MAN UTD
MAN UTD RECENT HOME FORM - 15 wins , 1 draw and have won their last 12 at home.Matches against 6th and 8th have seen 1 goal wins ( 3-2 and 1-0)
MAN UTD RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLWWLLWWWD - yes, you've guessed, they are defaulting away from home. Recent losses away were not wholly unexpected, Wolves, Liverpool and Chelsea.
MAN UTD GOAL TRENDS - 62% over 2.5 goals at home. Average 2.62 goals at home.Have scored in all matches at home. HAve scored 42 and conceded 9 at home this season. 3 of last 4 matches have been under 2.5 goals. Have only failed to score 2 or more goals in 2 home matches this season ( won them both).Score first in 69.7% of matches. United have scored most goals in the last quarter of an hour of 1st half and 2nd half.
MAN UTD STREAKS - 12 match winning streak at home. No defeat in 4 overall. No goal conceded in 2 matches.
AWAY TEAM - EVERTON
EVERTON RECENT AWAY FORM - DDDWDLDLLWW - Against the top 6, 1-1 draw with Chelsea, 2-1 loss to Arsenal, 1-2 win Man City, 1-1 draw Spurs, 2-2 draw Liverpool.
EVERTON RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWDDLWLWWDWDWW - all of last 3 losses have been away to Stoke, Arsenal and Bolton.
EVERTON GOAL TRENDS - 44% over 2.5 goals away. 4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals with the exception a 2-0 win. Have kept a clean sheet in last 2 matches. Have scored in 12 of last 13 matches. Like United, Everton score most at the close of each half.
EVERTON STREAKS - 4 away without a draw. 7 matches without defeat overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - A draw, I would suspect, is the best Everton can hope for today. United at home regularly score 2 goals and have only conceded 9 goals all season. With Everton having been in such good form of late, they could score again ( they have scored in 12 of last 13 matches) Over 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals. Caution here - we need to see United side, as they played a relatively weaker side last match. I mean putting Michael Owen on does not instill any confidence in me whatsoever.
2pm - Bari v Sampdoria - 1.57 away - this is bottom v 3rd from bottom.
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sun | 05/12/10 | ||||||
| Wed | 24/03/10 | ||||||
| Sun | 01/11/09 |
LEAGUE POSITION 20th v 18th – bottom Bari are down
HOME TEAM BARI
BARI RECENT HOME FORM – LDDLLLDDLD – no win in 13 at home. Drawn 1-1 with 17th and beaten 19th 2-1 at home so could cope with Samp.
BARI RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLLLLDLDLDLWDL - last 3 draws all 1-1 include against AC Milan
BARI GOAL TRENDS – only 2 of last 9 over 2.5 goals - 25% over 2.5 goals at home. Only 1 clean sheet in last 16 matches. Have only scored 3 in the first half hour all season.
BARI STREAKS – 13 at home without a win.
AWAY TEAM – SAMP
SAMP RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLLLDLDL – no win in 9 away .only played one of bottom 3, a 1-0 loss.
SAMP RECENT OVERALL FORM – WLDLLLLDLL – win was a home win against 12th placed Bologna.
SAMP GOAL TRENDS – 31% over 2.5 goals away .Have scored only 9 goals away.last 2 matches over 2.5 goals but only cos opponents scored most of the goals. Samp have not scored in their last 9 away matches.
SAMP STREAKS – 9 away without a win, 9 overall without a win. No goal scored in 9 away matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Low scoring encounter, so says the Form book but Bari have performed well at home against bottom 3 sides. Perhaps a throwaway 0-0 correct score back to lay trade may work if this is as tight as the form suggests. Samp have not scored in their last 9 away matches. Both sides woefully short on the unders percentages, but this is a very very important game for Samp which could save their season. Bari can play without concern.
2pm - Inter v Lazio - 1.97 home - 3rd v 4th and too tight a match for me to want to get involved in.
230pm - Frankfurt v B Munich - 1.56 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sat | 27/11/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 20/03/10 | ||||||
| Wed | 28/10/09 | ||||||
| Sat | 24/10/09 | ||||||
| Sat | 11/04/09 |
Bayern have scored in all recent head to heads and won the last convincingly. Which of the 0-4 or 2-1 is the clearest indicator of today;s away match for Bayern?
LEAGUE POSITION – 15th v 4th and another bottom v top. Frankfurt are 4th from bottom on 33 points with 3rd bottom on 29 points so their job of survival is far from over. Bayern go 3rd with a win today and within 3 points of 2nd placed Leverkusen ( of course I have not factored in the Leverkusen result)
HOME TEAM FRANK
FRANK RECENT HOME FORM – LWWLLLLDWD – 1-0 win over Dortmund then 3-0 losses at home against Leverkusen and Hannover. Bayern are certainly capable of the latter scoreline. No draw against top 9 at home.
FRANK RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLDLLLDLWDDL – only 1 win recently, was at home against strugglers St pauli. Beat Dortmund 1-0 at home with a 87th minute winner in December 2010 – an anomoly
FRANK GOAL TRENDS – 47% overs at home is inconclusive – have scored only 12 at home all season. Have only scored 1 against top 4 at home. But have beaten 5th and 6th 2-1 and 2-0. Have failed to score in 53% of home matches. Last 3 matches under 2.5 goals
FRANK STREAKS – 3 at home without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - BAYERN
BAYERN RECENT AWAY FORM – LWDWLWLWD – winning in turn. – vulnerable away to bottom 9.Only 2 wins. But goal laden matches 2,4,5,2,8,2,6 in matches away to bottom 9.
BAYERN RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWLWWLLWWWDW – 4 wins in last 5 for a team whose season is over is great.
BAYERN GOAL TRENDS – 67% average over 2.5 goals with 53% away from home. A run of 9 matches over 2.5 goals has ended with unders/unders/overs - a hugely convincing 5-1 home win over 2nd placed Leverkusen may bring it back. 5 of last 6 matches away have been over 2.5 goals, the exception a 1-1 where both goals were scored within 60 minutes. Bayern have scored in all of last 15 matches.
BAYERN STREAKS – 5 overall without defeat.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – both teams really need points and a hope that Bayern can return to goalscoring ways and over 2.5 goals? Frankfurt find top 4 difficult at home, but have beaten 5th and 6th at home.
230pm - Leverkusen v Hoffenheim - 1.58 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Sat | 27/11/10 | ||||||
Sun | 24/01/10 | ||||||
Sat | 15/08/09 | ||||||
Fri | 13/02/09 |
On a positive note, Levekusen have scored 5 goals away at hoff. Now they are at home and could consolidate.
LEAGUE POSITION 2nd v 9th - a win required by Leverkusen to keep Dortmund on their toes.a win can take Hoff 7th although they are safe and unlikely to threaten for any European places.
HOME TEAM - LEVERKUSEN
LEVERKUSEN RECENT HOME FORM – WDLWWWWW – 5 wins on the trot all scoring 2 or more Outside the top 7, Leverkusen have scored a minimum of 2 goals against all other teams at home. This signals that they should not lose against Hoff.
LEVERKUSEN RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWLWWDWWWWWL – recent loss was away at a Bayern side probably taking their frustrations out on Leverkusen. Only 5 losses all season, and 4 of those losses have come against top 6 sides.
LEVERKUSEN GOAL TRENDS – 67% over 2.5 goals at home. 5,4,4,2,6,3,2,3 total goals in Leverkusen’s recent home matches and remember they have scored a minimum of 2 goals against all teams outside the top 8 at home. Only 2 of last 5 over 2.5 goals but 2 matches were 1-0 away wins. Have kept 4 clean sheets in last 6 matches, but not in last 2 matches. Have failed to score in only 3 matches this season.
LEVERKUSEN STREAKS - 5 match home winning streak. 6 at home without a draw. Have scored a whopping 30 goals in the last ½ hour of matches.
AWAY TEAM - HOFF
HOFF RECENT AWAY FORM – DDLWLLLL – have lost all away matches against the top 8 bar a 1-1 draw with Dortmund which was back in October 2010 so its relevance to NOW form is questionable.
HOFF RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWLDLLWLDLW – last 2 wins were 1-0 home wins.
HOFF GOAL TRENDS – 53% over 2.5 goals away from home. Only 1 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. 4 of 6 matches against top 8 away have been over 2.5 goals – the others over 1.5 goals.
HOFF STREAKS – no win in 4 away. No draw in 6 away. Current losing streak of 4 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Leverkusen have scored 2 or more outside the top 8 at home which makes them favs to win here against a Hoff team who are on a 4 match away losing streak and have lost 5 of 6 matches against top 8 sides away. Over 1.5 goals looks safe, over 2.5 goals for the speculator and a 2 goal Leverkusen correct score worth speculating? 2-0, 2-1, 3-0?
3pm - Aston Villa v Stoke - 1.89 home - this looks like a dead rubber to me, nothing much to play for although you would suspect Stoke want to break that 40 point barrier. I will not be researching this.
3pm - Blackpool v Newcastle - 2.5 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sat | 11/09/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 10/04/10 | ||||||
| Wed | 16/09/09 |
Blackpool heartened by the fact they beat Newcastle at Newcastle.
LEAGUE POSITION – 18th v 9th. 3rd from bottom A win takes Blackpool 16th provisionally and Newcastle are dreaming of their summer hols to Whitley Bay as they win and lose nothing. 40 points should be safe.
HOME TEAM -BLACKPOOL
BLACKPOOL RECENT HOME FORM – LWLLLDWLLL – that is why Blackpool are in the mire. The teams in 5th -12th seem to be within Blackpool’s range at home ( this encompasses Newcastle)
BLACKPOOL RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLLLDWLLDLLL – recent win was 3-1 v Spurs and draw 2-2 and the other draw 1-1 v Villa which was a successful over 2.5 goal trade but spoilt the perfect over 2.5 goal record at home.
BLACKPOOL GOAL TRENDS – 14 of last 15 matches over 2.5 goals. 15 of 16 home matches over 2.5 goals with the exception a 1-1 draw with Villa which was a successful over 2.5 goal trade. Have conceded in all of their last 16 matches. Have scored and conceded in every home match this season. Have only failed to score in 2 of last 15, needless to say away from home. 94% over 2.5 goals at home. Have conceded a whopping 21 goals this season in the last ¼ hour.
BLACKPOOL STREAKS – no win in 3 at home. No draw in 4 at home. No win in 6 overall.Current losing streak of 3. Blackpool have conceded 4,3,2,3,3,3 in their last 6 matches.
AWAY TEAM NEWCASTLE
NEWCASTLE RECENT AWAY FORM – LLWDLDWLL – recent wins away 2-0 v Brum and 1-0 v Wigan. 3 of 5 away wins have been 1-0 Newcastle have a good away record against 7 – they are unbeaten away from home.
NEWCASTLE RECENT OVERALL FORM – DDLDDWDLLWLD – only 2 wins recently against Brum and Wolves.
NEWCASTLE GOAL TRENDS – Newcastle have not scored in their last 2 matches and I highlighted potential attacking problems in my research against Man Utd. So I would ask you to do some research on team news for the Geordies ( www.racingpost.com digital newspaper, www.sportinglife.com and skysports/bbc sports and bbc radio 5 live ) 38% of away matches over 2.5 goals Have conceded 24 goals away from home. Newcastle have not scored in 4 of their last 5 matches away. Newcastle have not scored in 3 of their last 4 but then suddenly get 4 at home against Wolves.
NEWCASTLE STREAKS – 3 away without a draw, 2match away losing streak.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – as ever default to over 2.5 goals when Blackpool are at home, but Newcastle have not scored in last 2 and may have attacking players missing. This is your job using the websites I have given you to check team news as I cannot check latest team news at this time.
3pm - Liverpool v Birmingham - 1.5 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| |||||||
| Sun | 12/09/10 | ||||||
| Sun | 04/04/10 | ||||||
| Mon | 09/11/09 | ||||||
| Sat | 26/04/08 | ||||||
Draw anyone?
LEAGUE POSITION – 6th v 15th – a faint glimmer of hope for 5th for Liverpool but already they have played one more than Spurs.. along with Fulham, Stoke and Sunderland, Brum are on 38 points and only 5 points from 3rd bottom.
HOME TEAM - LIVERPOOL
LIVERPOOL RECENT HOME FORM- WWLWDWWDWW – great recent form at home for Liverpool and they have beaten both Manchesters at home recently. Home form against bottom sides is patchy but we must factor in the pre and post Queen Kenny era. 2-1 win over Blackburn, 1-1 draw with Wigan, 1-2 loss to Blackpool, 3-0 win over West ham, 1-0 loss to Wolves.
LIVERPOOL RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLDWWWWDLWWLWD – last 4 losses were away losses.Last 4 draws have all been score draws.
LIVERPOOL GOAL TRENDS – 56% overs at home inconclusive. Have kept clean sheets in 44% of matches at home. 2 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals and 4 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Have only kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 7 matches. Have scored in all of their last 15 matches.
LIVERPOOL STREAKS – 7 at home without defeat. 2 match home winning streak.
AWAY TEAM – BRUM
BRUM RECENT AWAY FORM – LWLWDLDL – the wins were the only 2 wins away this season and against 2nd and 3rd from bottom.Draws were both score draws. Have lost away to top 3 and drawn against 4th, 7th, 8th and 10th
BRUM RECENT OVERALL FORM – DWWLLDLWDWL – last 3 wins have come at home. Last 2 draws were 1-1 away scoredraws.
BRUM GOAL TRENDS – only 1 of last 3 over 2.5 goals. 5 of last 6 away matches over 1.5 goals. 56% overs away from home again inconclusive like Liverpool.
BRUM STREAKS – 4 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS Brum should be layable here but again we have the desperation factor which makes this part of the season so tough. Carroll and Suarez should have a good time of it. I did the Chelsea v Brum match and recounted on the absence of Zigic and Martins. If they are absent again then a 1.5 Liverpool could be worth backing to score first. Note the tight head to heads! Remember change of manager syndrome and new player impact for this match.
3pm - Sunderland v Wigan - 2.16 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sat | 11/09/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 06/02/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 28/11/09 | ||||||
| Sat | 14/03/09 |
Likely to be as tight today no doubt with a huge amount at stake.
LEAGUE POSITION – 13th v 17th and it’s 38 points v 34 points. Sunderland I feel are safe but would like another few points so Brucey bonus can sleep better. Wigan are outside the bottom 3 and will seek to remain outside with a win or a point. A win takes them provisionally 16th ( other results not factored in yet)
HOME TEAM – SUNDERLAND
SUNDERLAND RECENT HOME FORM – WWLWDLLLL – shocking recent form and a collapse which coincides with Darren Bent leaving. Last win at home was 3-0 v Blackburn
SUNDERLAND RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWDWLLLLDLLLL – no win in 9 matches and it is the Darren Bent factor.
SUNDERLAND GOAL TRENDS – 38% over 2.5 goals at home –have conceded 4,2,2,3 in their last 4 home matches. 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Only 1 clean sheet in last 10 matches. Have failed to score in 5 of last 6 matches.
SUNDERLAND STREAKS – no win in 9 matches, no win in 5 away. 4 match losing streak overall.
AWAY TEAM - WIGAN
WIGAN RECENT AWAY FORM – LLDWDLDDLLW – recent losses 1-0 v City and Chelsea and wholly undeserved losses. Good recent away form as they played very well against the 2 big sides.
WIGAN RECENT OVERALL FORM – DDLLDWDLLWDLW – last 3 losses against Man City, Man Utd and Chelsea.
WIGAN GOAL TRENDS – 44% over 2.5 goals away. 2 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Only 1 of last 16 matches have Wigan kept a clean sheet.Wigan have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
WIGAN STREAKS – 3 away without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – form tells us to go for unders here given Wigan have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 and Sunderland have failed to score in 5 of their last 6. This is a true 6 pointer and a season defining match. Remember that there may be a degree of unpredictability with these must must must wins.
3pm - Tottenham v West Brom - 1.6 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sat | 11/09/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 02/05/09 | ||||||
| Sun | 28/12/08 |
Tight head to heads recently.
LEAGUE POSITION – 5th v 11th. 39 points I suspect is ok to see WBA not boing boing this season.Tottenham are still on for 4th place - it is well within their grasp.
HOME TEAM – SPURS
SPURS RECENT HOME FORM – WWDWWDWDW – no defeat in 14 at home and thankfully for WBA this is not a must must win, although Woy will want thwee points eventually to make safe.Only 1 loss at home all season was a 1-0 to Wigan.
SPURS RECENT FORM OVERALL – DDWWWLDDDWD – draws making it a lot tougher to get 4th but are these draws down to the Champions League campaign?
SPURS GOAL TRENDS – 44% over 2.5 goals athome. 2 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals.6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals with the exceptions 2 0-0 results. Spurs have scored 6 goals in their last 2 home matches. Spurs score first in only 37.5% of matches so enhanced bettors beware! Opponent scores first in 50% of matches.
SPURS STREAKS – no defeat in 14 home matches. No defeat in 5 overall. 4 of last 5 matches are draws.
AWAY TEAM – WBA
WBA RECENT AWAY FORM – LDLWLLLLLDWW – scored 6 in their last 2 away wins. Away against top sides 2-2 draw United, 6-0 loss Chelsea, 2-3 win Arsenal, 3-0 loss Man City, 1-0 loss Liverpool. General trend towards goals.
WBA RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDLDDDWDWWL – good recent form coincides with Woy’s weign. Last 2 losses against Chelsea and Man City.
WBA GOAL TRENDS – 70% over 2.5 goals generally – 69% away.Last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all bar 1 match home and away and conceded in all away matches all season.
WBA STREAKS – won last 2 away, no defeat in 3 away
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – over 2.5 goals immediately springs to mind when WBA enter the arena. 70% overall over 2.5 goals is consistent. 6 of last 8 Spuds matches over 2.5 goals and they have scored 3 in each of their last 2 home matches. Spurs need to win to pressure 4th place and WBA I suspect are safe and Woy can start counting his massive bonus for keeping them up.
3pm - Wolves v Fulham - 2.68 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sat | 11/09/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 17/04/10 | ||||||
| Sun | 20/09/09 |
LEAGUE POSITION – 20th v 12th – a win takes Wolves out of the bottom 3 provisionally. Fulham on 38 points and deemed safe(ish)
HOME TEAM WOLVES
WOLVES RECENT HOME FORM – WWLWLWWDL – trying their best and a feeling home - recent losses against Everton and Liverpool not entirely unexpected.
WOLVES RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWLLLWLDWDWLL – unbeaten sequence ends with 2 losses and 7 goals conceded.
WOLVES GOAL TRENDS – 69% over 2.5 goals at home. 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored in 5 of last 6 matches. Last 5 home matches over 2.5 goals.
WOLVES STREAKS -no win in 2 at home. No draw in 3 overall.
AWAY TEAM – FULHAM
FULHAM RECENT AWAY FORM – LWLDLDDLL – only 1 win away all season came recently against Stoke. 4 score draws against 4 of the bottom 5 they have played away.
FULHAM RECENT OVERALL FORM – WLWDWLWDDDWLWL – inconsistent. Last 4 losses have come away from home.
FULHAM GOAL TRENDS – 31% over 2.5 goals away from home. 3 of Fulham’s last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. All 9 matches played against bottom 6 sides over 1.5 goals.
FULHAM STREAKS – 7 away matches without a win. 4 away matches without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – only 1 win away for Fulham enough to oppose them against a Wolves side who have conceded 7 goals in last 2 matches. 4 draws against bottom 5 away from home is interesting, all score draws and all hinting perhaps that both sides could score and thus a goals trade is an option. Wolves’ last 5 home matches all over 2.5 goals.
530pm - Chelsea v West Ham - 1.25 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sat | 11/09/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 13/03/10 | ||||||
| Sun | 20/12/09 | ||||||
| Sat | 25/04/09 |
Comprehensive Chelsea wins last 2 matches and a must win here as United at home have been extremely strong.
LEAGUE POSITION – 2nd v 2nd from bottom – Chelsea are 6 points away from United so it needs a United slip up and a Chelsea winning streak to have a shot at the title. It ain’t over til it’s over. West Ham are on 32 points and a win takes them provisionally 4th from bottom ( dependent on other results.)
HOME TEAM –CHELSEA
CHELSEA RECENT HOME FORM – WLDWDWLWWWW – 5 wins in last 6 with a 1-0 loss to Liverpool. Chelsea have recently beaten Man City and Man Utd at home. Against bottom 6 sides, Chelsea have won the lot.
CHELSEA RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWLDWWWDWWW – rock solid recent form with both draws coming away from home. Against bottom 5 home and away, 8 wins and a 1-0 away loss to Wolves.
CHELSEA GOAL TRENDS – only 38% over 2.5 goals. Score an average of 2 goals at home per match.Last 2 matches over 2.5 goals but 3 prior were not. Have scored in all of last 7 matches. 62% clean sheets at home.Opponent leads at half time in only 21% of matches. Chelsea score first in 51% of matches ( toss of a coin). Chelsea have scored 16 goals in the last quarter of an hour.
CHELSEA STREAKS – 4 match home winning streak.6 home matches without a draw. 8 matches overall without defeat.
AWAY TEAM – WEST HAM
WEST HAM RECENT AWAY FORM –West Ham have won only 2 away matches all season against Fulham and Blackpool. Have only played 2 of the top 4, losing 3-0 and 1-0 to Arsenal. LLDWLDWDDL – wins have come fairly recently and both were 1-3 wins.
WEST HAM RECENT OVERALL FORM – LLDWLDWWDLLL – last 2 wins at home v Liverpool and Stoke where West Ham scored 3. Have lost all matches home and away to top 4.
WEST HAM GOAL TRENDS – 62% over 2.5 goals away. Have failed to score in 50% of away matches against a team conceding only 9 at home all season. 10 of last 12 matches over 2.5 goals.
WEST HAM STREAKS – no win in 3 matches ( 4 overall) No goal scored in last 2 away matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – if ever there was an example of top v bottom, then this is it. Points are so vital for both sides which adds an air of unpredictability to this London Derby. So bear this in mind and remember a surprise result will not be that much of a surprise given the circumstances. All form points to Chelsea winning and scoring first. 62% clean sheets at home. West Ham’s over 2.5 goals in last 12 matches ( 10 or them overs) signals they are fighting and this could lead to goals today. I would enhance trade if West Ham score first.
530pm - Mgladbach v Dortmund - 1.67 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sat | 27/11/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 06/03/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 03/10/09 | ||||||
| Sat | 23/05/09 |
7 goals scored in last 2 matches compelling for league leaders but those matches were at home. They are away today.
LEAGUE POSITION – this really is top v bottom. A win takes Mgladbach equal on points with 2nd and 3rd from bottom . Dortmund are 8 points clear at the top.
HOME TEAM - MGLAD
MGLAD RECENT HOME FORM – LLLLLWWLW – no draw in 9 at home. 1-3 loss( 2nd), 1-2 loss( 3rd) 3-3 draw (4th) and 2-3 loss (5th) hint that Dortmund should be able to score 3 ?
MGLAD RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLWLLWLWDLLWL – inconsistent overall. 3 losses in last 4. Home wins have come against 9th, 10th and 12th.
MGLAD GOAL TRENDS – 73% over 2.5 goals at home. Concede an average 2.06 at home. Only 1 of last 6 over 2.5 goals. Only 1 clean sheet in last 10 matches. Have failed to score in 3 of last 4, all 1-0 defeats. 4,3,6,5 total goals against 4 of top 5 at home.
MGLAD STREAKS – 9 at home without a draw.
AWAY TEAM - DORTMUND
DORTMUND RECENT AWAY FORM – WWWWLWWDWLD – only 1 win in last 4 – meeting some resistance?2 1-1 draws and a 1-0 loss. The 1-1 draws saw 80+ minute goals which signal that teams may be taking a defensive attitude to Dortmund visiting OR Dortmund are missing key personnel. If you want to enter this match, look at Dortmund team news.
DORTMUND RECENT OVERALL FORM – WDWDDWWWLDWDW – last 2 losses have been away from home and have both been 1-0’s. 3 of last 4 draws were 1-1.
DORTMUND GOAL TRENDS – 60% over 2.5 goals away from home. Have only conceded 11 away from home. Have only conceded 8 in the first half all season. Dortmund have only conceded 2 goals in the first game of the season. Since then they have never conceded more than 1.
DORTMUND STREAKS – 2 away without a win. 4 matches overall without defeat.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – this really is TOP v BOTTOM so an unexpected result may be viable. Over 2.5 goals a possibility on form ( not accounting for suprise top v bottom result) as Mgladbach matches at home to top 5 teams at home are 4,3,6,5. If you fancy Dortmund, perhaps an insurance on 1-1 as Mgladbach should not be able to score 2 against Dortmund. 3 of last 5 Mgladbach losses 1-0.
530pm - Rapid Vienna v FC Wiener Neustadt - 1.58 home
530pm - Red Bull Salzburg v FC Wacker Innsbruck - 1.56 home
545pm - Willem II v AZ Alkmaar - 1.32 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sun | 24/10/10 | ||||||
| Sun | 18/04/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 29/08/09 | ||||||
| Sat | 07/02/09 |
Pretty comprehensive for AZ over 2 years.
LEAGUE POSITION -18th v 4th. Willem II are finished. On 12 points, they are going down and nothing will save them bar the invention of a time machine and the unexpected signing of Lionel Messi. AZ still have a season worth fighting for.It is unlikely they will break into the top 3, but they can consolidate 4th place with a win.
HOME TEAM –WILLEM II
WILLEM II RECENT HOME FORM – have won 2 matches only overall all season and those 2 were at home on 22nd Jan and 26th Feb – LDDWDWLLL – a hint of a fight has petered out with 3 consecutive home losses. Have lost at home to all of the top 7. Match total goals? 4,6,4,6,9,3 . Expect goals today?
WILLEM II RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLLDLWLLDLLL – 2 wins at home, most recent a 4-3 win when 2-0 down by halftime.
WILLEM II GOAL TRENDS – 73% over 2.5 goals.Concede an average 3.06 at home. 12 of last 14 matches over 2.5 goals. 8 of the last 10 matches over 3.5 goals. Have conceded 3,3,3,5,6 in last 5 matches at home. Have kept only 3 clean sheets all season home and away. Have only failed to score in 2 of their last 16 matches so they are trying. Have conceded a massive 53 goals in the 2nd half. So if ( unlikely!!) 0-0 at half time, expect goals.
WILLEM II STREAKS – 4 without a draw at home. 3 match home losing streak. 6 matches overall without a win.
AWAY TEAM - AZ
AZ RECENT AWAY FORM – WLDLWLWW – 3 wins in last 4 matches.Away against bottom 6 it is not that good – 1-1, 1-1, 2-1 loss, 2-1 loss, 0-1 win but are Willem II just that level lower? Interestingly AZ scored first in all of those matches. And I must note that some of these were very early season matches which might not reflect true form.
AZ RECENT OVERALL FORM – DDWLLWWLWWWDW – solid recent form
AZ GOAL TRENDS – 40% overs away form home. Only 1 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. But 8 of last 11 matches were over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 9 of last 11 matches. Have scored in 7 of last 8 matches.
AZ STREAKS – 5 away matches without a draw,5 matches overall without a defeat. Have won 3 of their last 4 away matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – a meaningless match for Willem but look at the goal totals in their recent matches. 8 of last 10 matches over 3.5 goals.8 of AZ’s last 11 matches over 2.5goals. Will this continue today? It could for an AZ team in good recent away form but with a poor record against bottom sides. Interestingly though, AZ have scored first against all bottom 6 sides they have played away. If Willem II score first here, then it’s enhanced bet territory.
6pm - Brescia v AC Milan - 1.85 away
645pm - Heracles v De Graafschap - 1.57 home
645pm - Roda JC v Breda - 1.49 home
7pm - Barcelona v Osasuna - 1.23 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sat | 04/12/10 | ||||||
| Wed | 24/03/10 | ||||||
| Sat | 31/10/09 | ||||||
| Sat | 23/05/09 | ||||||
| Sun | 11/01/09 |
LEAGUE POSITION 1st v 16th – 3rd from bottom on 33 points and Osasuna have 35 points, yet another top v bottom clash.Real Madrid have managed to majestically feck it all up this season and 8 points is too big a gap now .
HOME TEAM BARCA
BARCA RECENT HOME FORM – 13 match winning streak at home.
BARCA RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWWWWDWWWWDWWWD – the draws were all 1-1’s and all away from home.
BARCA GOAL TRENDS – 75% over 2.5 goals at home. Average 2.62 goals scored per home match. But only 2 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded only 6 in the first half and 11 in the 2nd half. Barca have not conceded a goal in the first ¼ hour this season. Have kept only 1 clean sheet in last 5. Score first in 87.5% of matches ( not as high as last year).Opponent leads at half time in 9.4% of matches.
BARCA STREAKS – 13 match home winning run. No defeat in 30 matches.
AWAY TEAM - OSASUNA
OSASUNA RECENT AWAY FORM – DLLLLLWWL – only wins away have come against 3rd from bottom and 2nd from bottom. Only lost 1-0 away at Real Madrid and drew 2-2 with Valencia – up their game for the big boys?
OSASUNA RECENT OVERALL FORM – WDLWLDWWWLLL includes a 1-0 home win over Real Madrid. Recent wins against 15th, 18th and 19th.
OSASUNA GOAL TRENDS – 44% over 2.5 goals away from home. Have scored 14 and conceded 27 away from home. 6 of the 12 away defeats have been 1-0.4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 3. Have only failed to score in 1 of last 6. Have only scored 7 in the first half hour all season. Barca should score first if a goal is to come in that time frame.
OSASUNA STREAKS – no draw in 8 away matches( 6 overall)No win in 3 away matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – The form points to a Barca win. Could be a 1-0 win though. Remember this is top v bottom so factor that in to this match. 75% of Barca home matches over 2.5 goals is compelling, as ever but Osasuna lost 1-0 and won 1-0 against Real Madrid.
8pm - Juventus v Catania - 1.48 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| Thu | 13/01/11 | ||||||
| Sun | 05/12/10 | ||||||
| Sun | 02/05/10 | ||||||
| Sun | 20/12/09 | ||||||
| Sun | 08/02/09 | ||||||
| Wed | 14/01/09 |
Most recent head to head a comfortable 3-1 win for Juve .
LEAGUE POSITION – 7th v 14th a win takes Juve provisionally into the top 6. Catania are on 36 points with 3rd bottom on 32 so they are not strictly safe yet.
HOME TEAM – JUVE
JUVE RECENT HOME FORM – LWLWLLWW – have lost at home to 12th and 15th ( Catania are 14th)
JUVE RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLWWLLLDWWWD – good last 5 matches but only one of those sides a top 6 side.
JUVE GOAL TRENDS – 69% overs at home. 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals.
JUVE STREAKS – 9 home matches without a draw, 5 matches overall without defeat.
AWAY TEAM – CATANIA
CATANIA RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLDLLLLD – no win in 16 away matches. Have conceded 4,3,3,3 against 6th, 8th ,9th and 10th. -
CATANIA RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDLWLWLWLWDL – inconsistent to say the least.
CATANIA GOAL TRENDS – 31% over 2.5 goals having only scored 8 goals away from home all season. Drew 1-1 with bottom side bari last time out away. Prior to that, Catania did not score in 5 away matches. Opponent scored first in 54% of matches so Juve have a 50/50 chance of scoring first.
CATANIA STREAKS – 16 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – this looks Juve’s to lose but they do not look like confident betting propositions. That said, It must either be a draw or a Catania loss surely, and in an ideal world, Juve would replicate the 3 goals of their near league rivals. 9 home matches without a draw for Juve suggest perhaps a match odds win?
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Requinto, 6/4 Ishvana, 10/1 Reply, 33/1 Hamlet The Dane, 50/1 Lady Superior.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Such was the promise he showed on his debut, REQUINTO appeals as being the type to go well in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, so he would really want to be winning this, for all that Ishvana represents a solid test for him at this early stage of his career. [Kevin Blake]
Only 2 under 10/1 and 3 under 33/1 makes this a good probability race apart from being an Irish 2 year old maiden with 4 horses with a single run under their belts.
335 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Inxile, 6/1 Knock Stars, 8/1 Snaefell, 10/1 Luisant, 12/1 Katla, 12/1 Rodrigo De Torres, 14/1 Rock Jock, 20/1 Santo Padre, 25/1 Moonreach, 33/1 Whipless, 100/1 Dawn Eclipse.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INXILE is difficult to oppose following his demolition job at Naas last weekend. Katla is an interesting proposition back at this more suitable trip and should not be underestimated. [Kevin Blake]
A Nicholls horse in Cork in this listed race. A price gapper.11/10 - - - -6/1. As ever in listed races, all horses are solid.
210 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Indian Groom, 11/8 Lord Villez, 20/1 Dechiper, 50/1 Still Calm, 100/1 Steel Man.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INDIAN GROOM, representing last year's successful stable, may reverse course form with Lord Villez at this shorter trip.[Paul Johnson]
A 2 horse race with a clear round of course.
320 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Montoya´s Son, 11/4 Big Burrows, 10/1 Currahee, 12/1 Lord Samposin, 25/1 Just Posh.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MONTOYA'S SON has good prospects of beating Big Burrows in receipt of 6lb if building on his recent Hexham second.[Paul Johnson]
4/9 this fav now with next best at 5/1 . Another novices chase.
535 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Ardnaclancy, 15/8 Abragante, 14/1 Aggie´s Lad.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ARDNACLANCY is taken to confirm Hexham form with Abragante, though it wouldn't be the biggest shock of the day if he didn't, as the latter might have still just needed the run last time
2 horse race again for 2 places in this hunters chase. A fall from either of course puts Aggies Lad right in the picture.
510 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Agglestone Rock, 5/1 Thanks For Coming, 11/2 Perfect Reward, 13/2 Yeoman Spirit, 7/1 Pie At Midnight, 11/1 Restart, 12/1 Livvy Inn, 12/1 Rifleman, 12/1 Worth A King´s.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AGGLESTONE ROCK wouldn't be at all far away on his Sedgefield handicap fourth on his last hurdles start in March but a wide-margin win on the Flat since suggests he may well be able to step up on that form. He can take this ordinary affair, with easy selling-race winner Perfect Reward making most appeal of the others, ahead of Thanks For Coming. [Mel Cullinan]
11/8 - - - -6/1 for Agglestone in the live betting indicates a horse fancied today. 9 runners and 3 places.
230 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Alejandro, 6/1 Mr Majeika, 7/1 Almond Branches, 7/1 Drummoyne, 10/1 Blue Shoes, 10/1 Kodiac King, 33/1 Lucky Mark, 40/1 Lady Of Edge.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from ALEJANDRO, who was only narrowly denied on his debut and had Almond Branches and Kodiac King well behind that day. Those two could well give him more to do this time though, and look the main dangers.[Steffan Edwards]
Price gapper for hanagan and Fahey - comes with risks as this is a maiden, there are a number of debutants.
700 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lemon Drop Red, 5/1 Melbury, 5/1 Rational Act, 6/1 Tapis Libre, 7/1 Zamina, 10/1 Looksmart, 16/1Gothic Chick, 16/1 Savinien.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A moderate race and LEMON DROP RED (nap), an expensive purchase from an in-form yard, has the potential to be a notch or two above this lot. Melbury may be the danger.[Ron Wood]
10/11 - - - 7/1 currently and a price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap and these usually place. 8 runners and 3 places makes this interesting as well.
130 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sanctuaire, 6/4 Clerk´s Choice, 12/1 The Jigsaw Man, 25/1 Dorabelle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sanctuaire was very good again when back from a breathing operation last Saturday but this small-field affair may not work out so favourably. CLERK'S CHOICE is preferred.
A listed hurdle and a 2 horse race with a clear round.
345 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dick Turpin, 4/1 Cityscape, 4/1 Music Show, 13/2 Dream Eater, 100/1 Highland Knight.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DICK TURPIN has a good opportunity to start 2011 with a win, although Cityscape would be greatly feared if the ground has not firmed up. At her best, Music Show would not be at all far away and connections of Dream Eaterclearly mean business by running a pacemaker.[Richard Austen]
HAnnon/Hughes fav and all of the top 3 have 200+ day absences.
SHORTLIST
1245pm - Man Utd v Everton - 1.48 home - 1.3 over 1.5 goals is interesting given United tend to score 2 or more at home and Everton have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches and are in good spirits.
230pm - Leverkusen v Hoffenheim - 1.58 home - looks worth the risk as points are required more by Lev than Hoff. Leve score 2 or more at home against those outside the top 8. 1.21 over 1.5 goals should have a chance therefore. Leverkusen have scored 2 in last 5 home matches, all wins.
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