Tuesday 26 April 2011

26/4

I think Rapid Bucharest have a great chance of dominating at home against newcomers to the top flight and I will go with them today and hope I do not rue a league where I cannot really get as deep into the research as I normally do.

***** 630pm - Rapid Bucharest v Sportul Studentesc - 1.31 home - back Rapid Bucharest in the match odds at around 1.31 presently***** Place bet a bit nearer the off as it is illiquid at present on betfair. Or use a bookmakers and traders use Betfair ir Rapid lead at any stage.


Nice win for Southampton yesterday. And for Copenhagen again! A very reliable betting medium they are.

1230pm - Home Utd v Geylang Utd - 1.45 home - yesterday's 1.45 shot won 5-0 in the Singapore League so these short prices may be reliable.

home have won the last 5 head to heads. A hope for a 3 goal win rather than the single goal of most recently. A recent 9 run unbeaten run for Home United eneded with 2 losses against Singapore Armes Forces and Etoile. All goals were after the hour mark signalling an initial tight affair.
Geylang's recent win came against TAnjong Panjar, 2-0. But Home United beat Tanjong Panjar 6-0 which offers us reasonable collateral form.
Similarly Geylang United beat Houjang 2-1, but Home United beat Houjang 5-0.
A feeling this could reasonably go with the home side Home United.


745pm
24.10.2010D1Sportul Studentesc0-2Rapid Bucuresti
04.06.2006D1Rapid Bucuresti3-0Sportul Studentesc
27.11.2005D1Sportul Studentesc1-0Rapid Bucuresti
the gap is an indicator that Sportul were not in the top flight for some time. The only head to head of relevance was in October 2010 and an easy Rapid win.
Since the return from the Winter Break, Sportul's results are thus LLLLWDLLL
Only 2 losses since the Winter Break for Rapid and WDWDW at home - the draws were 0-0, maybe a 0-0 cover? I expect , though, that with the limited research I can do, Rapid should win as their odds suggest.
- Schalke v Man Utd - 2.32 away - surprise package Schalke helped in no small measure by Leonardo's controversial move to change Inter Milan's back four for a local Sunday League back 4 in the previous round. I suspect this is going to follow the United pattern of 0-0 or 0-1 and then take them to Old Trafford. 0-0 and 0-1 are the dominant scorelines in the 2 legged affairs. Schalke's matches have largely seen goals with dominant home displays in their last 2 matches against Inter and Valencia. This stage of the Champions LEague though may instill a different attitude altogether? A match we cannot really research because this is truly a unique event with all sorts of permutations. Ideal scorelines?
1-0 or more to Schalke. Even a 0-0 is a great scoreline as if they score at Old Trafford, United would need 2 goals.
1-0 for United is ideal as an ultra defensive display at Old Trafford and a goal should kill off the tie. SOme great stats from the Racing Post. United are unbeaten in 11 European matches, have won 8 of the last 10 away games, and kept 13 clean sheets from their last 18 matches away in the Champions League. Huntelaar is a big miss for schalke but golden oldie Raul will be a menace.
745pm - Stoke v Wolves - 1.88 home- after the Lord Mayor's show for Stoke, following their FA Cup triumph over Bolton might let Wolves in?

HEAD TO HEADS

30.01.2011CupWolverhampton0-1Stoke City
14.08.2010PRWolverhampton2-1Stoke City
11.04.2010PRWolverhampton0-0Stoke City
31.10.2009PRStoke City2-2Wolverhampton

Latest head to head was in the Cup. Only one recent Stoke match was a 2-2 draw.

LEAGUE POSITION - 14th v 19th - a feeling that Stoke, on 39 points , are safe this season although Pulis will not object to a 40+ final points tally. A wolves win is critical as it will take them out of the bottom 3 and into 16th place. They must take advantage of Blackburn's inability to win yesterday, as well as West Ham and Wigan's defeats and Blackpool's draw. This is truly season defining.

HOME TEAM STOKE

STOKE RECENT HOME FORM - DLLWWWDWD - just what Wolves do not want to see at this stage of the season is a side in good home form and recently drawing 1-1 with Chelsea.Stoke have only played one of the bottom 3, drawing 1-1 with West Ham.Only 4 losses at home all season have come against Man Utd, spurs, Fulham and Blackpool.

STOKE RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLWLLDLWDLD - last 7 losses have all come away from home so this is a real Jekyll and Hyde team home and away it seems.

STOKE GOAL TRENDS - 38% over 2.5 goals at home.Concede on average one goal at home per match. Have kept a clean sheet in 31% of home matches - nearly 1 in 3. 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals includes 2 1-1's which were done by half time ( and thus successful over 2.5 goal trades.) Have conceded in 10 of last 11 matches. Have scored in all of last 4 matches. Have only scored 1 goal in the first quarter of an hour all season - hence layable for that quarter of an hour in the hope this trend continues and the opposition get a goal?

STOKE STREAKS - 6 at home without defeat - 3 overall without a win.

AWAY TEAM - WOLVES

WOLVES RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLWLLLLDWL - pretty dire away form - both wins 1-0's against Liverpool and Aston Villa. Against bottom 8, Wolves have lost all 5 matches they have played away, conceding 2 or 3 in each of those matches.

WOLVES RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLLWLDWDWLLD - only 2 losses in last 7 but this is really crunch time. Only 3 points will do

WOLVES GOAL TRENDS - 44% over 2.5 goals away from home.Concede 1.93 away per match on average. 4 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 3 matches. Have scored in 6 of last 7 matches.

WOLVES STREAKS - Have conceded 2 or 3 away to bottom 7 sides - 2 away without a draw.3 overall without a win. Conceded 16 goals in last 1/4 hour of matches this season so vulnerable right up to the 90th minute

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is a must win for Wolves so they may play better than the form indicates - WOlves have been vulnerable against bottom 7. They have played 16th, 17th, 18th and 20th and lost 3-0, 2-1, 2-0, 2-0 -only scoring 1. Stoke's season is pretty much over and they may be suffering from "after the Lord Mayor's show" syndrome after their FA Cup exploits against Bolton. With Ebanks-Blake a potential miss this evening along with Kevin Doyle, where will the Wolves attacking threat come from? They look layable based on form, but remember the desparation factor may play some part in a surprise. Will Wolves concede 2 again as they have against bottom 7 sides away? Only 2 wins away make Wolves vulnerable in a part of the season where they cannot entertain a loss.


320 EXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 River Indus, 7/4 Marleybow, 5/2 American World.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AMERICAN WORLD could be the answer despite his woeful recent form, with the return of a tongue-strap and the genuine fast ground two significant factors in his favour.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Another quite clear probability race this one -2 will place in this handicap chase and of course we want any one selection to complete.


420 EXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 American Ladie, 6/4 Sara´s Smile, 11/4 Belle De Fontenay, 33/1 Star Potential.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If the blinkers can continue to help then AMERICAN LADIE should have every chance of gaining revenge on Sara's Smile, who rather blotted her copybook last time. Belle De Fontenay is the dark one.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

3 horses and 2 places again here but difficult to really eliminate any of the top 3 so pure probability if getting involved.


355 FAIRYHOUSE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Viking Splash, 7/2 Drawn N Drank, 4/1 Rudi Trucker, 13/2 Newbay Prop, 7/1 Kanesh, 10/1 Lord Multifix, 10/1 Salsify, 14/1 Bold Ali, 14/1 The Snuffler, 14/1 Wedger Pardy, 20/1 Aces And Kings.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An emphatic performance by VIKING FLASH at Gowran marks him down as an improving sort in this grade. He looks best of the more experienced contenders here, though Drawn N Drank, an unexposed runner for Enda Bolger, could make him work hard, in receipt of a stone, and with Liz Lalor's useful 7lb claim also coming into the equation.[Alan Sweetman]

13/8 and only 5 under 16/1 and a hope that those 5 dominate and Viking Flash runs to his price and places at least.

635 FAIRYHOUSE

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Scotsirish, 5/1 Osana, 6/1 Psycho, 13/2 Peak Raider, 8/1 Cuan Na Grai, 8/1 Fosters Cross, 10/1 Dev, 10/1 Lastoftheleaders, 10/1 Made In Taipan, 12/1 Idarah, 16/1 Sizing Africa, 20/1 I Hear A Symphony, 25/1 Mansony.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Almost half the field are wrong at the weights here, but that drawback may not stop the progressive PEAK RAIDER from providing another big-race Carberry winner here. Scotsirish heads the list of dangers, with Osana also likely to feature. [Alan Sweetman]


Walsh/Mullins favourite must have a decent place only chance.

300 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rudegirl, 5/2 Fifth In Line, 3/1 New Latin, 12/1 Exchange, 12/1 Smart Performance, 50/1 Lady On Top, 100/1 Street Cred.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RUDEGIRL has an absence to overcome on her first start for her new stable but her defeat of Commended at York was a sound effort and in an uncompetitive race, she looks the one to beat.[Paul Smith]

4 under 10/1 and 5 under 40/1 makes this a 5 horse race for 3 places - Rude girl is 1.14 to place and New Latin 1.18 to place

535 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Scriptwriter, 5/2 Ouest Eclair, 7/2 City Ground, 12/1 Candleford, 14/1 Glaced Over, 14/1 Into The Light, 33/1 Smudger, 50/1 Cauldron, 50/1 Runswick Relax, 100/1 Balwyllo, 100/1 Rats.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SCRITWRITER took longer than expected to win over hurdles and it now looks as if his best days are behind him but he should be good enough to gain a second C&D success at the expense of Quest Eclair and City Ground. [Chris Wilson]

3 under 12/1 here should dominate?


650 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Cootehill Lass, 2/1 Eternal Youth, 5/2 Pick A Little, 33/1 Welsh Dresser.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COOTEHILL LASS, though yet to prove that she handles Polytrack, still looks the safest option in a weak seller. With Eternal Youth far from straightforward Pick A Little is taken to fill the forecast spot.[Andrew Mount]

A seller but a chance on a 3 horse race for 2 places without the worry of one falling!


SHORTLIST
1230pm - Home Utd v Geylang Utd - 1.45 home - faith in the apparent reliability of the odds in the Singapore league and the collateral form in favour of the home side

630pm - Rapid Bucharest v Sportul Studentesc - 1.31 home - yes a slight risk that there are not a huge amount of games under the belt but established top flight team at home should do the biz against a team they have beaten 2-0 already

745pm - Stoke v Wolves - 1.88 home - no Doyle and Ebanks-Blake a possible absentee - where on earth are the goals going to come from? We cannot discount Wolves simply because of the desparation factor but Wolves have conceded 2 or 3 away to bottom 7 ( where Stoke are) - the lay of Wolves is obvious I would suggest.

320 EXETER - cut out the 3 horse's names, put in a bag, and choose one and hope it places - that's the best way to decide! Each horse has a 66% chance of placing here. Default to the shortest price in the place only market? Currently River Indus at 1.38 to place

420 EXETER - American Ladie is overwhelming fav at 1.19 in the place only market in a race where only 3 are under 33/1 for 2 places.

355 FAIRYHOUSE - Viking Splash is 13/8 here and 1.41 to place currently

300 LINGFIELD - Rude Girl and New latin are both 1.16 to place in this 6 horse race for 3 places.

650 WOLVES - a seller so beware but there are 3 under 33/1 who should fight out the 2 places and Cootehill Lass at 1.24 to place leads the market as I write but it is a long way til race time.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

630pm - Rapid Bucharest v Sportul Studentesc - 1.31 home - established and unbeaten at home since the winter break against newcomers they have already beaten 2-0 away. Rapid should bring home the odds - risk of a draw as WDWDW at home recently for Rapid.

320 EXETER - great probability races today - 3 horses and 2 places here.

300 LINGFIELD - we should take advantage of the 6 horse race for 3 places still on Betfair and Rudegirl and New Latin are my picks here in this claimer

650 WOLVES - Cootehill Lass the one in what should be a 3 horse race for 2 places?







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