HEAD TO HEADS
| 06.10.2010 | |||||
| 01.07.2010 | |||||
| 16.04.2010 | |||||
| 03.03.2010 | |||||
| 18.09.2009 | |||||
| 04.07.2009 |
Pretty emphatic last 2 2010 matches saw Gomback score 8 to no reply.
LEAGUE POSITION 11th v 6th - only 2 points in 9 matches for Woodlands .
HOME TEAM -WOODLANDS
WOODLANDS RECENT HOME FORM – LDLLLLLLLLD – most recent match was a 2-2 – a messy match with Woodlands scoring a penalty and giving Geylang an own goal for the equaliser. Have conceded 2-3-2 in the last 3 matches.
WOODLANDS RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLDLLLLDL – not a win in sight.
WOODLANDS GOAL TRENDS – again no soccerstats but we’ll see what we can find. – average 0.44 scored in the 10 games played . Have scored no goals in the first half hour of last 10 matches and only 1 goal in 45 minutes. Have scored only 4 in those 10 matches includes the 2 last time out!!
WOODLANDS STREAKS -14 games at home without a win, 16 matches overall without a win.
AWAY TEAM – GOMBACK UNITED
GOMBACK UNITED RECENT AWAY FORM – LDDWDWDLWDW – losses only against Home United recently 4 0-0’s amongst those away draws may have to be compensated for in betting strategy
GOMBACK UNITED RECENT OVERALL FORM – DDLWWWLLDWW – losses against Hougang and Singapore Armed Forces and the already mentioned Home United , 7th, 3rd and 2nd
GOMBACK UNITED GOAL TRENDS – Average 1.1 scored and 0-7 conceded in 10 matches. Have only scored 2 in the first half in those 10 matches.
GOMBACK UNITED STREAKS – 2 wins on the trot, 3 games overall without a loss, 3 away matches without a loss.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – the goal trends I cannot get proper research done so a big hole there, but it seems GOmback will not lose and Woodlands are probably too big to lay, although there should be a shorter lay price in the Half time market, given they have not scored in the first half hour in their last 10 matches. Head to heads are mighty impressive for a 1.65 away shot!!
HEAD TO HEADS
| Sun | 05/12/10 | ||||||
| Wed | 23/09/09 | ||||||
| Fri | 14/05/04 | ||||||
| Fri | 12/12/03 |
1860 new to Bundesliga 2 and only 1 head to head of relevance was a 1-0 home win. Nothing really then to be gleaned from this head to head
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 8th - - obvious motivation for Hertha here although they do have a 7 point cushion at present. 1860 seem to be in limbo neither gaining nor losing anything regardless of today’s result. So we clearly have a motivated side against a side with no motivation.
HOME TEAM HERTHA
HERTHA RECENT HOME FORM – have won 11 at home. WWLWWLDWWW – dodgy patch against 9th, 10th and 11th, and 1860 are 8th!! Coincidence?
HERTHA RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWDWWWDWWWW – superb recent form at the right time of the season
HERTHA GOAL TRENDS – 60% over 2.5 goals at home. Average 2.33 goals at home per match. Have kept clean sheets in 47% of home matches – nearly 1 in 2.Berlin have scored 2,4,1,2,3,2,4 so capable of scoring at least 2 today if on a good day.Only 1 of last 6 over 2.5 goals but 4 of those matches had 2 goals in them.Hertha have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 matches and in 6 of their last 8 matches.
Against 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th and 11th, Hertha conceded 2,2,2,0,2 . What do we make of that?
HERTHA STREAKS – no defeat in 10 overall. 3 match home winning streak. No goal conceded in last 4 matches.
AWAY TEAM - 1860
1860 RECENT AWAY FORM – DLDWLWWLL – the last 3 matches have been over 2.5 goals but prior to those we saw 4 1-0’s, a 1-1 and a 0-0. Against the top 5 away from home, 2-1 win over Augsburg ( was in Sept 2010 and questionable recent relevance), 3-2 loss to 3rd Bochum, 1-0 loss to Greuther Furth, and 1-0 loss to Erzgebirge. Tight I suppose you could call it. 1-0’s are always precarious scorelines.
1860 RECENT OVERALL FORM – LLWDWWLWLW – 1860 have scored 3,5,1,4,1,3 recently, have scored 5 ,4 and 3 at home, but lost their last 2aways 2-1. Can they replicate this scoring away from home?Recent home wins against 4th and 6th.
1860 GOAL TRENDS – 53% over 2.5 goals away from home. 33% clean sheets away from home – 1 in 3 matches. Last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3 matches ( both at home) and have scored in all of last 8 matches.
1860 STREAKS – 6 away without a draw, and 6 overall without a draw. Have lost last 2 away matches 2-1.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – 1860 are a difficult team to read, scoring 5,4,3 with the concession of only one goal in their last 3 home matches, and winning 3-0 away, then losing 2-1 in last 2 aways. 1860 win against Augsburg I think is irrelevant and generally lose to top 5, albeit in tight encounters. Over 1.5 goals looks good today and we could go for over 2.5 goals given 4 of last 6 hertha matches had 2 goals in them – all about the timing of the 2nd goal really.
Motivation very definitely with Hertha Berlin today to retain their gap at the top but 1860 look capable on their day which makes them a tough team to read for trading purposes.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 17.01.2011 | |||||
| 26.02.2010 | |||||
| 20.11.2009 | |||||
| 27.03.2009 |
That’s all Zwolle need at this part of the season, a team they cannot beat. 3 1-1 draws – probability is low that they will produce another exact same scoreline today.
LEAGUE POSITION – 2nd v 8th joint top at present on points but superior goal difference to Waalwijk. The title is between these 2 teams with 3rd placed on 55 points. Den Bosch will gain and lose little regardless of the result today.
HOME TEAM – ZWOLLE
ZWOLLE RECENT HOME FORM – WWWLWWWDDDL – amazing implosion – has Arsene Wenger been teaching Zwolle how to cock up a season? 2 0-0 home draws ended with a 1-1 last time and then a 3-0 loss to Waalwijk,.In both of the last matches, Zwolle have had a man sent off – pressure telling? They scored first in the 1-1 draw thanks to the unfortunately named Ars but then got a man sent off. Zwolle have lost only 2 at home, both conceding 3 or more goals.
ZWOLLE RECENT FORM OVERALL – LDWWWWDDDDWL – interestingly, overall, Zwolle now have a man sent off in last 3 matches, but one was a 2-1 away win. Last 6 matches have let Waalwijk in and are most out of place when considering the rest of Zwolle’s season
ZWOLLE GOAL TRENDS – 62% over 2.5 goals at home and average 2.31 goals Have conceded only 12 at home ( and 7 of those goals were in 2 defeats only!) Last 2 matches over 2.5 goals but 4 prior to these saw 3 0-0’s and a 1-1. Zwolle have conceded in last 3 matches but prior to those had 6 clean sheets. 0-0 draws at home to 9th and 10th ( and Den Bosch is 8th)
ZWOLLE STREAKS – 4 at home now without a win .2 without a draw and a hope those draws are over for the time being. Zwolle certainly cannot afford to lose any more matches.
AWAY TEAM – DEN BOSCH
DEN BOSCH RECENT AWAY FORM – DDLDDWLLLLDW – win against top side 1-0 –all draws mentioned here have been score draws ( and that ties in with the head to heads coincidentally). Against the top 4, 1-0 win over Waalwijk, 2-2 draw with 3rd, and 1-1 draw with veendam – have scored away against all of the top 4 so far,
DEN BOSCH RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDDLWLWLDDWW – unbeaten in last 4,
DEN BOSCH GOAL TRENDS – 69% over 2.5 goals away from home but do we trust Zwolle do contribute? Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept one clean sheet in the last 3. Have scored in last 3.
DEN BOSCH STREAKS – 2 away without defeat, 4 in total.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – I do not trust Zwolle who seem to be doing an Arsenal with their title hopes. A match to stay away from for me. The 1-1 draw screams out but the probability of a 4th draw, and 3rd 1-1 head to head? Well, Den Bosch haven’t lost to top 4, have drawn 2 of them and beaten the other 1-0. Zwolle have disciplinary issues with a man sent off in the last 3 matches. The 1.66 looks eminently layable for Zwolle, albeit in an illiquid market but as I say they are an unpredictable outfit at this stage of the season and this match is a good example, for me at least, of doing the research and deciding to leave alone. After all, there is no obligation to get involved in every match researched. Quality over Quantity.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 03.12.2010 | |||||
| 22.02.2010 | |||||
| 20.09.2009 | |||||
| 23.02.2009 |
Only 1 match of relevance here in the top flight was a tight affair featuring the 2 promoted sides with a 48th minute goal separating the sides. A lucky St Pauli win I suspect.
LEAGUE POSITION – 12th v 18th - Kaiser are 5 points off 3rd from bottom and St Pauli have disintegrated of late.A win takes them to 2nd from bottom and with a chance of getting out of the bottom 3. A win makes Kaiser safe .
HOME TEAM - KAISERSLAUTERN
KAISERSLAUTERN RECENT HOME FORM – DWDDLDDWLL – Kaiser have lost 4 of 6 against the top 6 and only lost one outside the top 6 at home. Against bottom 6, 3 draws and a loss and a win Loss was back in October 2010 so question relevance?
KAISERSLAUTERN RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLDLDDWWLWLW – no draw in 6 overall. Recent losses were at home and against 2nd and 6th.
KAISERSLAUTERN GOAL TRENDS – 40% over 2.5 goals at home. Have failed to score in 40% of home matches. Have only conceded one goal in the first quarter of an hour all season. 4 of last 5 matches under 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in only one of last 4. Have failed to score in 2 of last 4.
KAISERSLAUTERN STREAKS – 6 without a draw, lost 2 at home, not scored in 2 at home.
AWAY TEAM – ST PAULI
ST PAULI RECENT AWAY FORM – WLLLLDWLLLLD – last win came in a good streak at the start of 2011 which has since dissipated.
ST PAULI RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWLLLLLLLDL – so close to beating Wolfsburg in the 2-2 draw only to be scuppered by an 88th minute equaliser. From 10th to 15th in the league, St Pauli have lost the lot away and are playing 12th today.
ST PAULI GOAL TRENDS – Last 3 over 2.5 goals and 6 of last 7 over 2.5 goals. Expect St pauli to concede?Indeed they have conceded in their last 9 matches. Have scored in 4 of last 5 matches. 67% over 2.5 goals away from home. Have failed to score in 47% of away matches.
ST PAULI STREAKS – 5 away without a win, 9 overall without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – the St Pauli desperation of late leads, it would seem, to goals being scored and conceded . They have conceded in all of last 9, 6 of last 7 over 2.5 goals and MUST WIN today. Look all over layable if we just take their away form ( recent away form) on face value although mighty unlucky not to get 3 points in the recent 2-2 draw. Kaiser seem able to cope with the bottom 5 sides , bar what looks an anomalous 3-0 loss back in Oct 2010 to Frankfurt.
What do we make of 1-0 head to head which needed an own goal ( can we assume would have ended 0-0?)
No draw in 6 overall for Kaiser and 1 draw in last 12 overall for St Pauli ( which was an unlucky draw) suggests we lay the draw ( also both sides would ideally want 3 points)
These matches are tough puzzles to solve as we have desperation factor and so a neutral goals bet of a lay the draw ( which envelopes both sides!) may be best?
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.11.2010 | |||||
| 27.10.2010 | |||||
| 21.03.2010 | |||||
| 28.10.2009 | |||||
| 04.05.2008 |
Ignore the Cup and Livorno were winners last time out against 2nd placed Atalanta. Not a draw in sight either for odds on draw backers.
No real recent form at Livorno for head to heads bar 1 1-0 match. Atalanta got a man sent off in their recent loss to Livorno so account for that.
LEAGUE POSITION – 11th v 2nd and Atalanta are a point behind Siena so why on earth would they be playing for a draw as the odds suggest? A match of interest to Livorno as a win will catapult them , provisionally, to 7th
HOME TEAM – LIVORNO
LIVORNO RECENT HOME FORM – LWDLDLWDDDLL – Livorno’s recent score draws are only just score draws 89th minute Ascoli equaliser, 93rd minute Grossetto penalty . The recent 0-1 was nearly a draw as Modena got the winner in the 90th minute. The recent 2-1 saw Livorno get the one in the 95th minute. Expect, perhaps, some late action, and please, if you have laid the draw, and someone is leading 1-0 in the 80th minute, get out!!!
LIVORNO RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWDLDWDDLDLD – so it would seem the draw is so low because of Livorno and not something Atalanta would do? Last 2 draws have been 0-0. So perhaps today, if possible , back Atalanta and cover with 0-0 and 1-1? ( Or lay Livorno thus covering the draw as Atalanta’s need is much much greater)
LIVORNO GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 over 2.5 goals at home. Against top 4 at home, 1-1 draw with Siena, 1-0 win over Novarro, and 0-0 with Varesa. 12 of last 13 matches under 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3 matches. Have failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches.
LIVORNO STREAKS - 5 at home without a win ( 6 overall)
AWAY TEAM - ATALANTA
ATALANTA RECENT AWAY FORM – WLWWDWDWDDWD – last 3 draws score draws so if you want the draw on your side, perhaps a neutral goals bet?
ATALANTA RECENT OVERALL FORM – DDWWDDWDWWLD – only 1 of the last 4 has been a draw and that was a 2-2 where Crotone were winning 2-0 at half time.
ATALANTA GOAL TRENDS – only 33% away matches over 2.5 goals . 39% clean sheets away. Last 4 matches over 2.5 goals with 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Conceded in last 3 matches. Have scored in last 10. Away to 10th and 12th, Atalanta drew.
ATALANTA STREAKS – no defeat in 10 away matches is the standout stat here.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – no defeat in 10 away surely allows a lay of Livorno here to cover the draw? With Livorno 50/50 on overs, and Atalanta 33% overs, I would suggest an unders bet initially. 0-0 could be backed in the hope this is tight early doors ( although I have no access to scoring times table in this league so that 0-0 is speculative)
Atalanta need is greater so laying an odds on draw may seem logical. If Atalanta score first, we can expect a shift in odds. At any rate, if this is to turn into a score draw and we have laid the draw, the hope is that there will be a good gap between 1st goal and equaliser to allow a trade.
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tatispout, 3/1 Al Qeddaaf, 3/1 Crystal Rock, 9/2 Alazan, 12/1 Dontpaytheferryman, 16/1Master Fong, 25/1 Kingsben, 40/1 Gorge.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All of the likely first four in the market hold claims. ALAZAN (nap) will have needed his recent return run, his first since recording his second C&D handicap (from as many visits) last August, and he gets the verdict over the undeniably well-treated handicap debutant Al Qeddaaf.[Jeremy Grayson]
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Sweet Irony, 100/30 Abnaki, 12/1 Cruising Bye, 12/1 Melteme, 20/1 Vitruvian Man, 66/1Tobayornottobay, 100/1 Fenella Mere.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SWEET IRONY looks to have been found a weaker event than the Warwick maiden that got him off the mark in which to follow up. Trip and ground look perfect again. Abnaki is the pick of the ONeill duo. [Jeremy Grayson]
2 under 16/1 here should dominate but only 2 places and hurdles for novices. Sweet irony is 2/9 now but we are some 8 hours before race time where the market will be a little more accurate.
230 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Royal Hush, 11/4 Bella Montagna, 3/1 Adaria, 16/1 Tasman Tiger.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The absence of Perliously makes this a very weak event and ROYAL HUSH, whose Redcar fourth last summer wasn't a bad effort, won't be found many better opportunities to get off the mark. [Paul Smith]
3 under 16/1 should fight out 2 places
700 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Free Art, 7/2 Celebrity Sevi, 8/1 Buccaneer Bob, 10/1 Aragorn Rouge, 12/1 Hurricane Season, 16/1 Wings Of Apollo, 20/1 Golden Shoe, 25/1 Give Me Shelter, 33/1 Liberty´s Gift, 66/1 Caolan, 66/1 Pre Tax Profit, 100/1 Cash Or Casualty.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FREE ART will always be vulnerable to one with a turn of foot, but this is a below-average maiden and granted a forceful ride, he should have too many guns for his rivals. It will be interesting to see how the market assesses the chance of Celebrity Sevi on his third run. [Kevin Blake]
Free Art should put experience to use and at least place. Some newcomers though may be proverbial dark horses.
900 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Swing Pattern, 9/4 Hired Hand, 3/1 Gold Mirage, 5/1 Honest And True, 14/1 Confidence, 16/1 Kalamagdan, 20/1 Lilly The Lioness, 20/1 Truly Magnificent, 20/1 Yellow Rock, 33/1 Brian The Warrior.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably not to choose between a few of these with tentative preference going to HIRED HANDover Gold Mirage and Swing Pattern. [Alan Sweetman]
Another interesting market with 4 under 14/1 and Swing Pattern and Hired Hand of interest.
605 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Lord Liath, 5/1 Gtaab, 8/1 Farbreaga, 12/1 Consult, 16/1 Adrenalin Flight, 16/1 Border Station, 25/1 Baroque Star, 33/1 Kings Equity, 33/1 Lombok, 100/1 Galathea.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alan King has found a good opportunity for LORD LIATH (nap) to get off the mark over hurdles. Gtaab is the obvious choice for each-way thieves.[Chris Wilson]
Now 2/5, Lord Liath must be of interest.
805 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Rossbrin, 4/1 Little Roxy, 8/1 Aconitum, 8/1 You Can Of Course, 9/1 Direct Flo, 16/1 Cousin Maggie, 20/1 Act Gold, 20/1 Red Lancer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROSSBRIN comes here in good form, ahead of the handicapper and with a good chance to gain his third win of the year. There might be a bit more to come from Little Roxy but she would probably prefer some juice in the ground.[Chris Wilson]
Big price gapper here in the live market but a long way to race time.
425 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hong Kong Island, 5/1 Kenyan Cat, 6/1 Arashi, 7/1 Rowan Lodge, 8/1 Aegean Destiny, 8/1Destiny Of A Diva, 9/1 Bidable.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hong Kong Island has obvious claims and will presumably be popular, but he's opposed withARASHI, who should offer a bit of value.[Ron Wood]
6/5 - - - 5/1 a big price gapper in a small field but only 2 places.
220 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 The Cockney Mackem, 9/4 Definite All Star, 9/1 Offaly Allstar, 10/1 Nodelay, 11/1 Mar Ocean, 12/1 Reaping The Reward, 14/1 Coolbeg, 16/1 Parky, 20/1 Call Box, 25/1 Dizzy River, 40/1 Some Lad, 50/1 Lochore, 66/1 Harvey Moon, 66/1 Kalanisi Kid, 66/1 Legbeforewicket.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race likely to concern the two top course trainers, with slight preference given to THE COCKNEY MACKEM, who won his bumper at the course last September. Definite All Star, returning to a sound surface, should give him most to do. [Mark Brown]
FAith in the Twiston-Davies here and Cockney macken for me should place at least.
SHORTLIST
No comments:
Post a Comment