7/4

Porto always deserve respect and I may wade in this evening as they are the form European team.

As things stand, it looks as if Zarkandar is the best profiled bet today - 4 under 20/1, 10 runners and 3 places. A fall of course spoils it all!!

***** 230 AINTREE - Zarkandar to place only***** Around 1.21 Betfair SP might be worth doing if he drifts in price near the off or if the place only market is illiquid.

Better safe than sorry I suppose but barca did replicate what Arsenal did to Shaktar with a 5-1 win.

1pm - Sibir v Baltika - 1.52 home - more returns from the Winter Break and , despite Sibir posting a 6-0 win in 2009 head to heads, this is a hard game in which to gather recent form.

2pm - Ural v Chernomorets N - 1.5 home - more Russian 2nd flight matches best left alone.

805pm - Porto v Spartak Moscow - 1.41 home - Europa League. Porto are one of my favourite teams at the moment from a betting perspective. They win when they have to win and their losses have reasons. recently against Sevilla, they mullered them 3-1 away in the Europa League so only had to avoid a 4-0 defeat at home.

Other recent losses have come in domestic Cup competitions. The last 4 occasions that Porto have lost or dropped points have been in domestic competitions or in the Sevilla 2nd leg.

porto have no more league distractions, having tied up the league at Benfica.

Porto have won 9 of their last 12, and again only lost in domestic cup competitions and that 2nd home leg v Sevilla.

Spartak Moscow won away at Ajax and Basel recently in the Europa League but surely Porto are far superior to these 2?

As ever it is difficult to decipher and research form lines for 2 teams from 2 different countries who have never met before.

I would retain my faith in Porto though to put a close to a superb season where they have been one of europe's leading teams and punters' best friend!

Note Porto do not seem to do draws, so maybe an angle in that way too?

805pm - Villarreal v Twente - 1.68 home - Villareal lost only 1-0 when Barca visited recently. Maybe that was the pre Champions League kicking in for Barca, or maybe it is a sign of strength from Villareal at home?

I am afraid I have difficulties getting an angle into these matches as I know that a Twente team on top form could be a goal threat.

200 AINTREE

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Big Buck´s, 3/1 Grands Crus, 9/1 Carlito Brigante, 16/1 Karabak, 16/1 Khyber Kim, 25/1Sentry Duty, 33/1 Knockara Beau, 50/1 Possol, 66/1 Won In The Dark, 150/1 Gwanako, 250/1 Markington.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An appetiser to get everybody salivating, with BIG BUCK'S bidding for a hat-trick in this race after completing that feat in the World Hurdle last month. It was impressive the way he quickened up on two separate occasions to burn off Grands Crus at Cheltenham and he's taken to confirm the form, though it could be argued he wasn't at all impressive in this last year.[Paul Johnson]

Superb performances from both horses at Cheltenham makes Crand Crus surely the value alternative to the obvious Big Bucks today?

Big Bucks only just does enough it seems which hints he may be layable to trade only in running but is still likely to come through at the business end.

What a superb start after the dross we have been dealt recently.

230 AINTREE

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Zarkandar, 7/2 Grandouet, 12/1 Kumbeshwar, 14/1 Third Intention, 16/1 Houblon Des Obeaux, 16/1 Palawi, 20/1 Launchpad, 20/1 Local Hero, 25/1 Oriental Cat, 100/1 Maoi Chinn Tire.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Grandouet was travelling better than anything off the last bend in the Triumph and perhaps this less gruelling track will suit him better but he has his work cut out to reverse the form with ZARKANDAR, who had too much speed for his Festival rivals after sealing victory with a slick jump at the last flight.[Paul Johnson]

Could be a good day for Ruby with Zarkandar here. Only 2 under 10/1 and surely again we have a natural value alternative in Grandouet.

305 AINTREE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Denman, 4/1 Nacarat, 11/2 Punchestowns, 6/1 Carole´s Legacy, 8/1 Deep Purple, 33/1Follow The Plan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race which has been a graveyard for favourites - only one successful in the last nine years - and which revolves around Denman. Despite an outstanding form chance there are enough negatives for him to be opposable at a short price. Nacarat could get an easy lead but is by no means certain to confirm Wetherby superiority over Deep Purpleand it may be worth siding with CAROLE'S LEGACY who comes here on the back on a career-best effort and is a more solid jumper than her stablemate Punchestowns. [Frank Carter]

And it keeps coming. Note the fav stat here , a " graveyard " for favourites, but Denman's run at Cheltenham warmed the heart. Will he place in the first 2 only here with such illustrious opposition.

450 AINTREE

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wishfull Thinking, 2/1 Medermit, 7/2 Royal Charm, 12/1 Tharawaat, 20/1 Hold Fast, 20/1Hollo Ladies, 25/1 Shirley Casper.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WISHFULL THINKING (nap) and Medermit have a clear edge on the others on form and may have this between them. Having jumped soundly for the most part since an early departure on his chase debut here and with his form looking marginally stronger than Medermit's, preference is for Wishfull Thinking. [Mel Cullinan]

3 under 12/1 here should fight it out for the 2 places. Hard to pick one of the 3 main rivals not to place though.

635 CLONMEL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Killultagh Queen, 5/1 No One Tells Me, 10/1 Lady Roberta, 10/1 Pretty Happy, 14/1 Annie May, 14/1 Sunwake, 16/1 Flying Windsor, 16/1 Vision Of Glory, 20/1 Lady Rapido, 20/1 Turtlelass, 33/1 Daneva, 33/1 Rio Alto, 33/1 Rua Nua, 142/1 Clairs Choice.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KILLULTAGH QUEEN found one too good in both her completed starts over fences but she is hard to oppose here with No One Tells Me and Pretty Happy looking the two obvious dangers. [Brian Fleming]

Consistently placing this favourite and no real reason to desert now. Looks primed for another place.

SHORTLIST

805pm - Porto v Spartak Moscow - 1.41 home - as the Europa League progresses, logic dictates that the opposition gets stronger, so maybe the bookies are a little dismissive of Spartak Moscow? That said, Porto have wrapped up the title so can focus solely on the Europa League and winning it. I have said it before, that Porto tend to do what is necessary when asked, so expect perhaps a 1 or 2 goals win with a clean sheet?

You know the drill though with these one offs - unpredictable and no research will enable you to get a strong angle in with teams from different continents.

200 AINTREE - there is no reason why this race will not be dominated by Big Bucks and Grand Crus just like Cheltenham ( bar a fall of course) 1.16 Big Bucks and 1.5 Grand Crus to place

230 AINTREE - Zarkandar is 1.2 to place, Grand Douet is 1.57 to place and a value alternative like Grand Crus

635 CLONMEL - Killtutagh Queen has been very consistent and there is no reason why the horse should not place ( bar a fall of course.)

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

Well all 4 above have merit and I think are all strong. Porto's disadvantage is the fact this is the Europa League.

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