Saturday 23 April 2011

24/4

Football should take precedence over the horse racing and I am going to take a punt on a team who should be hugely motivated to jump from 16th to 11th in the French league with a home win over a side who have only won 1 all season , have failed to score in 5 of last 6, and in 73% of away matches.

*****4pm - NANCY V ARLES. BACK NANCY IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.5. PLEASE PLACE AN INSURANCE BET ON 0-0.
1) go to correct score. Look at 0-0 price. Currently 11.5
2) place enough stake so that you will win the same amount as you staked backing Nancy in the match odds market.

e.g. I have backed Nancy in the match odds at 1.5 for £100.
I go to correct score. The odds are 11.5. If I back 0-0 at 11.5 for £10 I will win £100.28 if the match is 0-0 which will cover the stake that will have been lost on nancy in the match odds.




1130am - Rubin Kazan v Amkar - 1.39 home -only 5/6 matches played in the Russian league thus far is perhaps a bit earlier to see form trends etc.

HEAD TO HEADS

11.09.2010D1Rubin Kazan3-0Amkar Perm
17.04.2010D1Amkar Perm0-1Rubin Kazan
25.09.2009D1Rubin Kazan1-2Amkar Perm
16.05.2009D1Amkar Perm2-2Rubin Kazan


1230pm - Augsburg v Aachen - 1.55 home

HEAD TO HEADS

27.11.2010D2Alemannia Aachen1-3FC Augsburg
28.03.2010D2Alemannia Aachen4-0FC Augsburg
01.11.2009D2FC Augsburg0-1Alemannia Aachen
24.05.2009D2Alemannia Aachen4-0FC Augsburg

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 10th - 4 points off top so a win a must . Mid table mediocrity for Aachen

HOME TEAM AUGSBURG

AUGSBURG RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWDWLDWWWD - only loss at home recently was a 0-1 against 3rd placed.Only 2 losses at home all season.Pretty solid at home against teams around Aachen in the league.

AUGSBURG RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDWWWDWWDW - again rock solid form which will keep hertha Berlin worried at the top. Another win will go some way today to this end.

AUGSBURG GOAL TRENDS - only 2 of the last 14 matches over 2.5 goals. Quite a recent trend.53% over 2.5 goals at home is inconclusive.Last 3 draws have been 0-0 so if you fancy Augsburg today then perhaps a 0-0 cover? Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches and in 8 of their last 10 matches. SO the inference is that if they score they win, and perhaps reinforces that 0-0 insurance bet incase they do not score. HAve scored in 6 of last 8 matches.

AUGSBURG STREAKS - 5 at home without defeat.2 without a goal conceded. No defeat in 10 overall and not conceded in last 5 matches.

AWAY TEAM AACHEN

AACHEN RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWWLDWLWL - inconsistent but winning in turn. Have not beaten any of the top 10 away from home but have drawn against 1st, 3rd, 4th and 6th 0-0, 1-1, 1-1, 3-3.

AACHEN RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDDWWLLLWWLL - no draw in 9 overall.Only 1 win home and away against top 10 was a 2-1 home win against 7th.

AACHEN GOAL TRENDS - last 14 matches over 2.5 goals. I mention looking for standout stats. Well here is one. And there is more! 19 of last 20 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all of last 14 matches and in 22 of last 23 matches. Have only failed to score in 4 matches all season.Last 10 away matches all over 2.5 goals. 80% away matches over 2.5 goals and 83% overall over 2.5 goals.

AACHEN STREAKS - 4 away without defeat, 9 overall without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the goals stats for Aachen are overwhelmingly in favour of over 2.5 goals but their form against top 4 is not with a 0-0, and 2 1-1's. But head to heads with Augsburg point to goals Again we have mixed up stats here with Augsburg keeping a clean sheet in their last 5 matches, only 2 of their last 14 matches under 2.5 goals.

Which will give today? That is what you must determine.Mixed messages matches though will go to the bottom of the list in favour of clearer cut matches.

1230pm - Fortuna Dusseldorf v Bielefeld - 1.41 home

HEAD TO HEADS

26.11.2010D2Arminia Bielefeld0-2Fortuna Düsseldorf
25.04.2010D2Arminia Bielefeld1-1Fortuna Düsseldorf
04.12.2009D2Fortuna Düsseldorf3-2Arminia Bielefeld

LEAGUE POSITION - 9th v 18th and this is one of those teams, like Bari, who are set adrift at the bottom and will be going down( Bielefeld) This explains the price for the home sides. A win takes Dusseldorf 7th although I am not sure what good it will do. They seem to have nothing really to grasp out of this season.

HOME TEAM FORTUNA

FORTUNA RECENT HOME FORM -WWWWWWWWWDWW - what chance have a team on 13 points got against a home team in such form?

FORTUNA RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWDWLWLDLWWW - 3 match winning streak ended an inconsistent run.Against bottom 4, have won the lot home and away.

FORTUNA GOAL TRENDS - 60% over 2.5 goals at home.60% clean sheets at home.6 of last 7 home matches over 2.5 goals. Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Last 3 home matches clean sheets. 70.7% of goals scored at home. Have conceded only 8 goals at home all season.

FORTUNA STREAKS - 12 at home without defeat. 2 match current winning streak.4 without a draw overall.

AWAY TEAM - BIELEFELD

BIELEFELD RECENT AWAY FORM - only 3 wins overall all season - LLLLLLWDD - sign of battling qualities in the last 3 away matches? 8th, 11th and 16th the teams they got these results from. Have drawn 0-0 away to 7th placed and won 1-2 at 8th and are playing 9th today.

BIELEFELD RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLDWLDLDD - 3 draws in last 4 matches - 2 of those draws over 3.5 goals.

BIELEFELD GOAL TRENDS - 71% over 2.5 goals away from home.have failed to score in 50% of away matches. Have not scored in 2 of last 3 matches and 3 if last 5 matches.Only 1 clean sheet in the last 21 matches.

BIELEFELD STREAKS - no win in 5 overall.3 draws in last 4

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - looks all over a Dusseldorf win were it not for the fact they don't need to win. But strong home and recent form for the home side. Bielefeld have drawn 3 of their last 4 matches and seem to be playing without a care now they have only accumulated 13 points all season. 60% home overs and 71% away overs points to goals of course. This match could be classed as a dead rubber though and therein surprises may lie.

1230pm - Rangers v Celtic - 2.64 home - I am not going to research this match, suffice to say that some kind of a bookings bet might be the order of the day. 9 points and above at 1.3 is a good bet given the history.( 2 points for a yellow and 5 for a red)

130pm - Ajax v Excelsior - 1.16 home

HEAD TO HEADS

24.10.2010D1SBV Excelsior2-2AFC Ajax
02.03.2008D1AFC Ajax4-0SBV Excelsior
23.12.2007D1SBV Excelsior2-1AFC Ajax
18.02.2007D1AFC Ajax2-2SBV Excelsior

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 16th, and with Twente cocking things up, ajax can go a point behind with a win.Excelsior is 3rd from bottom on 29 points and have a slim chance of getting out. Top v bottom again and M'gladbach and Dortmund showed what can happen when it's a must win for both parties. If there are better opportunities elsewhere then do not get involved in top v bottom at this stage of the season.

HOME TEAM - AJAX

AJAX RECENT HOME FORM - DDWWWWWW - rock solid and at the right part of the season. At 1.16 tonight, expect another win and with 3/4 goals? Have beaten the 5 of the bottom 6 they have already played at home.

AJAX RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWWDWDWWLWWW - last 3 losses have been away from home.

AJAX GOAL TRENDS - 47% overs at home a surprise. 2.06 scored and 0.46 conceded at home on average. 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Exception was a 2-0 win. Have kept 2 cleansheets in last 3 matches. Have scored in 9 of last 10 matches.

Have scored a whopping 42 goals in the 2nd half this season. Score 1st in 61% of matches. Have kept clean sheets in all of last 6 home matches.

AJAX STREAKS - 6 match home winning streak. 8 without defeat at home.

AWAY TEAM - EXCELSIOR

EXCELSIOR RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLDLLLLLWW - sudden winning run against 10th and 13th the only 2 wins away all season. Have lost away 2-1 to Twente and 4-2 to PSV , 1-1 draw with AZ.

EXCELSIOR RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWLWLLLLWDW - again an upsurge in form last 3 matches.

EXCELSIOR GOAL TRENDS - 53% overs away from home. Have conceded in every away match.2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals.Concede an average 2.06 away. Have kept a clean sheet in only 3 matches all season.Concede 27 goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches.

EXCELSIOR STREAKS - 7 away without a draw.3 without defeat overall. Won last 2 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 1.16 for Ajax suggests an easy 3/4 or more goal win. But what do we make of Exclsior producing their only 2 wins away in their last 2 away matches? They need points as well as Ajax. DO we dismiss this recent good form away in favour of an Ajax side who have not conceded a goal in their last 6 home matches?

130pm - Feyenoord v PSV - 2.06 away

HEAD TO HEADS

24.10.2010D1PSV Eindhoven10-0Feyenoord
11.04.2010D1PSV Eindhoven0-0Feyenoord
27.01.2010CupPSV Eindhoven0-3Feyenoord
20.09.2009D1Feyenoord1-3PSV Eindhoven
15.03.2009D1Feyenoord1-0PSV Eindhoven

I suspect this is not going to end 10-0 this time. If it did, then sell the wife and lump on the 2.06!!

LEAGUE POSITION - 11th v 2nd . I was surprised with the big price for PSV last week away when they scored first. They definitely must be the best motivated here with a win taking them top on goal difference over a Twente side who keep fluffing their lines. A win takes Feyenoord 9th and I cannot imagine there is anything further to wring out of this season for them.

HOME TEAM - FEYENOORD

FEYENOORD RECENT HOME FORM - DDWWLWWWLW - recent losses at home against 4th and 15th.Have lost all 3 against top 4 at home this season and are playing the last of that quartet today. 2 1-0 results hint at a side tough to beat at home but eventually succumbing.

FEYENOORD RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLDWDWWWLLWW - recent loss was at home to 4th place.

FEYENOORD GOAL TRENDS - 67% over 2.5 goals at home.Average 2.13 scored at home.4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals and 7 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. In the 2 recent losses, Feyenoord did not score. Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in only 5 matches this season.

FEYENOORD STREAKS - no draw in 8 at home.No draw in 7 overall. Have lost all matches home and away against top 4 sides.

AWAY TEAM - PSV

PSV RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDWWWDLW - loss was against Twente and Draw was saved by a 90th minute equaliser. A little shaky those 2 matches.Have only lost 4 all season, and 2 away to top and 13th after leading 1-0 and 2-1 in that match.

PSV RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWLWWDWDWLDW - again we see the inconsistency of late - pressure telling? That said, only 2 losses in the sample above means ideally we should have PSV on our side in some way.

PSV GOAL TRENDS - 60% over 2.5 goals away from home.Only one of last 4 over 2.5 goals. Have kept clean sheets in 47% of away matches - nearly 1 in 2!

Away to 9th, 10th , 12th and 13th, all matches over 2.5 goals ( Feyenoord are 11th). Have scored a massive 51 goals in the 2nd half of matches so if 0-0 at half time perhaps the balance will tip in PSV's favour.

PSV STREAKS - 2 without a draw away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Must win for PSV to go top today with a game in hand over Twente. Feyenoord have lost home and away to all of the top 4, but note 2 1-0 losses in 3 matches at home may signal a fight for PSV and the potential to back 0-0 initially for a back to lay trade?

Wounded animal syndrome will ensure this is not a 10-0 spanking this time out.67% and 60% over 2.5 goals stats for the teams hints at goals. Lay the draw perhaps given feyenoord's draw stats ?

130pm - Utrecht v Vitesse - 1.65 home- - has the look of a dead rubber about it so I will not research, suffice to say draw your own goal conclusions from the head to heads?
145pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Kryliya Sovetov - 1.29 home - season is only 5/6 matches old and head to heads point at a Krylia side who really seem to be difficult for Zenit to break down.Since the season started, Krylia have posted 1-0 loss, 1-1 draw, 1-0 win, 0-0 draw. With this in mind, perhaps a throwaway lay of Zenit to trade may be an option if they continue to be hard to beat. A 1-0 correct score in Zenit's favour might be tradeable. Zenit must be 1.29 for a reason though and without proper research this is a tenuous bet.
230pm - Wolfsburg v FC Koln - 1.67 home

HEAD TO HEADS

28.11.2010D11.FC Köln1-1VfL Wolfsburg
24.01.2010D1VfL Wolfsburg2-31.FC Köln
23.09.2009Cup1.FC Köln3-2VfL Wolfsburg
15.08.2009D11.FC Köln1-3VfL Wolfsburg
31.01.2009D11.FC Köln1-1VfL Wolfsburg

LEAGUE POSITION - 16th v 14th - 3rd bottom on 29 points along with 2nd bottom and bottom!!! A win therefore will give Wolf breathing space but will still leave them in the bottom 3. Koln are on 35 points so are not yet absolutely safe although you suspect they have done enough at this stage of the season.

HOME TEAM - WOLFSBURG

WOLFSBURG RECENT HOME FORM - DDDLLWLDD - only one win recently at home a reason for Wolfsburg's problems.That recent win was against 2nd bottom .Against bottom 10 at home, it is interesting that there have been 4 score draws and a 0-0 in 7 matches.

WOLFSBURG RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLLLWLLDDLD - 3 draws in last 4 matches a sign of fighting spirit? Last 2 draws were home draws saved by an 85th and 90th minute equaliser for Wolf.

WOLFSBURG GOAL TRENDS - 60% over 2.5 goals at home. Against bottom 5, we have seen ( home and away) 4 1-1 draws, a 2-2 draw, a 2-1 home win and a 1-3 away loss Top scorer for Wolfsburg is Dzeko - isn't he at Man City? Says it all really!

WOLFSBURG STREAKS - no win in 3 at home.No win in 6 overall. 3 draws in last 4. 5 draws in 7 home and away against bottom 5.

AWAY TEAM - KOLN

KOLN -RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLDLLL - no win away in 8 matches probably music to Wolf's ears.Interestingly Koln have lost 5-1 and 3-0 against bottom 2 sides. koln have only won 1 away match all season.

KOLN RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDWLWLWLL - inconsistent -rock solid at home , hence the W's you see, but stark contrast away from home.

KOLN GOAL TRENDS - 60% away over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 33% of away matches.Have conceded 11 goals in their last 2 away matches.

KOLN STREAKS - no draw in 3 away and no draw in 7 matches over all.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - a season defining match it would seem for Wolf today. The fact that their leading scorer is a player they have already sold perhaps sums them up fully here!!!. A match which could be another score draw but not a match I would personally get involved in.

4pm - Bolton v Arsenal - 1.79 away

HEAD TO HEADS

11.09.2010PRArsenal FC4-1Bolton Wanderers
20.01.2010PRArsenal FC4-2Bolton Wanderers
17.01.2010PRBolton Wanderers0-2Arsenal FC
10.01.2009PRArsenal FC1-0Bolton Wanderers

LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 3rd. Bolton in no mans land but Arsenal will have same points as Chelsea with a win today but remain 3rd on goal difference.

HOME TEAM BOLTON

BOLTON RECENT HOME FORM - WWDLWWWW - great recent home form but will do little to impact their standings in the league. Sturridge and Cahill the 2 main men for Bolton at home during that winning streak. Against top sides at home, 2-2 draw Man Utd, 0-4 loss Chelsea, play Arse today and have not played City, 0-1 loss to Liverpool.

BOLTON RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLLWLWDWLLW -last 3 losses away at Spurs, United and Brum.

BOLTON GOAL TRENDS - 62% over 2.5 goals at home.Have kept clean sheets in 31% of home matches - nearly a third. 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in only 1 of last 5 matches.Have scored in 7 of last 8 matches. 3 clean sheets in the 4 recent home wins. Opponents score first in 50% of matches.

BOLTON STREAKS - 4 match home winning streak.5 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - ARSENAL

ARSENAL RECENT AWAY FORM - LDWWDDWD - 3 draws in last 4 aways all big score draws.Only losses away this season have come against 1st and 2nd.

ARSENAL RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWDWWDDDWDD - no defeat in 16 matches overall but 5 draws in last 6 seals league fate I suspect.

ARSENAL GOAL TRENDS - 69% over 2.5 goals away from home matches Bolton at home.Score an average 2.18 goals at home.Only 3 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. 9 of last 10 away matches over 2.5 goals.Arsenal score first in 63% of matches and if Bolton concede first in 50% of matches, we have an above average chance of the Arse scoring first?

ARSENAL STREAKS - 7 away without defeat, 16 in total.5draws in last 6 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Arsenal have an above average chance of scoring first here today but if they don't, they should equalise if going behind. 4-4, 3-3 and 2-2 last 3 away matches . Arsenal need a win against a Bolton side with little to play for. Both over 2.5 goals averages are over 60% which adds a degree of confidence to overs here.

4pm - Nancy v Arles - 1.5 home

HEAD TO HEADS

04.12.2010D1AC Arles-Avignon1-1AS Nancy

LEAGUE POSITION - 16th v 20th 37 points plays 13 points and yet another team today adrift at the bottom with nothing at all to play for ( it did not stop Willem winning v AZ Alkmaar yesterday and perhaps a lesson there that neutral goals bets are better at this stage of the season?) Arles are down, simples.Nancy still have survival to fight for and a win takes them 11th ( and I thought the Premiership was tight!!) This really must put the ball in nancy's court being as they are at home and really must win.

HOME TEAM - NANCY

NANCY RECENT HOME FORM - WWLWLWD - not too bad -recent losses against 2nd and 8th. have only played one of the bottom 3 at home and that was a 2-0 win over Caen.

NANCY RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLWLLDWWDDL - recent wins against 15th, 17th and 18th in the league and Arles are 20th and adrift. Augurs well?

NANCY GOAL TRENDS - Only 40% over 2.5 goals at home. Have kept clean sheet in 40% of matches and failed to score in 1/3rd of matches. Only 1 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. nancy have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 6 matches but not in their last 2 matches. Have scored in 4 of last 5 matches.

NANCYSTREAKS - no goal conceded in 2 at home No strong streaks.

AWAY TEAM - ARLES

ARLES RECENT AWAY FORM - Arles have only won 1 match all season and that was at home.

ARLES RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLDLLD - no win in 15 away .

ARLES GOAL TRENDS - 47% over 2.5 goals away from home. Have failed to score in 73% of away matches so a 0-0 cover if Nancy are not firing today? Concede an average 2.06 goals away from home.very vulnerable at the start of the 2nd half when they have conceded 18 goals . 8 of last 10 matches under 2.5 goals. have failed to score in last 4 matches and 5 of last 6 matches. Have kept a clean in in 1 of last 8 matches.

ARLES STREAKS - no win in 19 matches, no win in 15 away from home.No goal scored in 4 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the motivation must be with Nancy here and a 0-0 cover if you fancy backing nancy in the match odds as Arles have not scored in their last 4 matches and have only scored 4 away all season. Mgladbach and Willem II should serve as ample warning that bottom sides can surprise at this stage if the season but surely nancy will be hugely motivated to climb to 11th with 3 points today?

6pm - Atl Madrid v Levante - 1.53 home

HEAD TO HEADS

04.12.2010D1Levante UD2-0Atlético Madrid
16.03.2008D1Atlético Madrid3-0Levante UD
28.10.2007D1Levante UD0-1Atlético Madrid

LEAGUE POSITION -6th v 9th. with Ath Madrid only 6th on goal difference to Sevilla, they will need to keep winning to cement their position and ensure European football next season. Levante are another who could break into the top 6 with a run , being on 42 points to Madrid's 46 points.

HOME TEAM - ATH MADRID

ATH MADRID RECENT HOME FORM - WLWDWLLDWLW - inconsistent but 2 wins in last 3. Ath Madrid have trouble at home in the top half of the table.Only 1 win against top 9 was recent against Villareal. Levante are 9th. 5 defeats and a draw at home against the remainder of the top 9 might put this early price of Madrids.

ATH MADRID RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLWDDWDLWWD - only one loss in last 9 is good recent form. That loss was against Real Madrid.

ATH MADRID GOAL TRENDS - last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Last 5 home matches over 2.5 goals. 6 of last 7 home matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 11 of last 13 matches.Have scored in all of last 9 matches. 6 of the 7 games played at home against top 9 have been over 2.5 goals. the other was a 0-2 loss.

ATH MADRID STREAKS - 3 without a draw at home.3 without defeat overall.

AWAY TEAM - LEVANTE -

LEVANTE RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLWLDWD - 9 defeats away all season.Have played 5 of top 8 sides, losing 4 and beating Villareal 1-0.

LEVANTE RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWLWDWDWWDW -the one loss recently was against real Madrid and this is solid form which might threaten that 1.53 for Ath madrid. Like Ath Madrid though, Levante tend to struggle against top 9 sides home and away.

LEVANTE GOAL TRENDS - only 3 of last 12 matches over 2.5 goals. 38% overs away from home.Last 5 away matches under 2.5 goals contrasts with Ath's last 5 home matches. Have scored in 12 of last 13 matches.

LEVANTE STREAKS - 3 away without defeat, 8 in total without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - mixed messages re the goals. Last 5 home matches for Ath Madrid over 2.5 goals but last 5 matches for Levante away under 2.5 goals. Ideally we want to see congruency. Both sides have solid recent form and have both only succumbed to real madrid . A match where the 1.53 for Ath Madrid looks a little short and as heavy odds on, is layable initially with minimal liability and greater upside. Both sides have relatively poor form against top 9 sides.

Well I got Cork spot on yesterday in what was an extremely busy day.

550 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Tom Horn, 5/1 Just For Joe, 7/1 Phoenix Star, 8/1 An Drummer Liath, 8/1 Daring Article, 8/1 Ten More, 10/1 Big Bluff, 10/1 Nurney Hill, 12/1 Crystal Wave, 14/1 Fairy Rath, 16/1 Glenahiry Queen, 16/1 Mr Dickens, 20/1 Birdlip Flyer, 20/1 Friendly Society, 20/1 Henry The First, 20/1 Miley Shah, 25/1 Charming Blue, 25/1 Garryowen Oscar, 25/1Likearollingstone, 25/1 Missus Archie.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOM HORN was well-touted before his debut at Navan last November and Noel Meade's runner makes most appeal to open his account at his third attempt with Just For Joe, Phoenix Star and Daring Article three possible dangers. [Brian Fleming]

Noel Meade runner and price gapper in the betting forecast. Live betting market yet to form properly.

150 FAIRYHOUSE

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sicilian Secret, 7/2 Bravely Fought, 7/1 Ross Na Righ, 9/1 Native Palm, 10/1 Golan Guy, 12/1Bachelor Lad, 12/1 Lismakeery, 14/1 Outrageous Request, 16/1 Silent Picture, 25/1 Blaze Of Fire, 33/1 Namarama, 50/1 Keysers Hill, 66/1 Donagher, 66/1 Spiker The Biker, 66/1 The Gnathologist, 66/1 The Two Jays.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sicilian Secret is probably opposable at his likely odds and BRAVELY FOUGHT can find the requisite improvement from his sole hurdling outing to beat him. Much will depend on his jumping but the booking of Davy Russell is a major plus. [Johnny Ward]

Surely the Walsh/mullins fav here has a great chance to place again but cautious words from analysis of last run "He would have to be treated with some caution after this effort."

340 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cape Classic, 2/1 Hunza Dancer, 6/1 Donnaconna, 6/1 Intiqaal, 16/1 The Nifty Duchess, 20/1 Friday Night Lad, 20/1 Isdaal, 66/1 Eilean Eeve.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The two clear form picks are CAPE CLASSIC (nap) and Hunza Dancer, and the former is strongly fancied to come out on top.[Ron Wood]

8 horses and 3 places so ideal place only race with Hunza dancer preferred by me solely down to having a recent run 24 days ago.


440 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Cobbs Quay, 9/2 Jonny Delta, 6/1 Eternal Heart, 14/1 Camporosso, 14/1 Stetson, 50/1 A Southside Boy, 50/1 Abernethy, 50/1 Amtired.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jonny Delta's bumper form makes him of interest on his Flat debut while Eternal Heart is likely to step up on his debut effort, especially over the longer trip, but Derby entry COBBS QUAY is expected to be hard to beat.[Frank Carter]

8 runners and 3 places again and this Cobbs Quay has a long absence to overcome but is the jockey's sole ride of the day. A hint in itself?

200 PLUMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Lava Lamp, 7/2 Highly Regal, 10/1 Illuminative, 16/1 Straight And Level, 16/1 Zuwaar, 20/1 Sharmon, 33/1 Always De One, 66/1 Homer Run.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LAVA LAMP faced a very stiff assignment and was also racing on ground softer than ideal when fifth to top juvenile hurdler Zarkandar in Grade 2 company at Kempton on his first attempt under this code. A dual Flat winner on a sound surface, he's difficult to oppose dropped massively in class and returned to quicker conditions.[Steven Boow]

Massive drop in class enough to go with Lava Lamp in this maiden hurdle? Again 8 runners and 3 places. Interesting analysis of his last race "Lava Lamp, a dual winner on the Flat on fast ground, had been well beaten on his only try on soft. Making his hurdling debut, he ran on late and could be one to bear in mind for when the ground dries up in the spring."

310 PLUMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Alla Svelta, 7/2 Jeczmien, 9/2 Rebelious, 20/1 Late Red.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALLA SVELTA clearly has the best form and is the one to beat with Jeczmien having lost his way over fences, and Rebelious, though open to improvement, having plenty to find.[Emily Weber]

Should be a 3 horse race for 2 places.

TENNIS BARCELONA OPEN FINAL

Nadal v Ferrer - Nadal 1.13 to win. A replay of the Monte Carlo Final where Nadal won.

SHORTLIST

1230pm - Fortuna Dusseldorf v Bielefeld - 1.41 home - superb home form against a side adrift at the bottom points, form wise, to an easy home win, but this is a dead rubber where both team will not win or lose prize wise from this match.

1230pm - Rangers v Celtic - 2.64 home - BOOKING POINTS - 9 points or more looks a good bet at 1.3 if you look at the litter of yellows and reds in recent encounters. We need 5 yellow cards, or 1 red and 2 yellow cards for this bet to be a winner.

130pm - Ajax v Excelsior - 1.16 home - 6 wins on the trot for Ajax should see them win but dare I remind you of Willem II winning when bottom? If you have faith in under 1.2 teams and goals, then over 3.5 goals should be tradable.

4pm - Bolton v Arsenal - 1.79 away - 1.24 over 1.5 goals looks reasonable here. Perhaps, too, backing Arsenal and hoping they score first for a trade given Bolton's opponents score 1st 50% of the time and Arsenalscore first in 64% of their matches.

4pm - Nancy v Arles - 1.5 home - talk about motivation. Nancy catapult to 11th with a win against a team with only 1 win all season. 0-0 cover perhaps. Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 6 matches which augurs well for today. But remember they are where they are in the league for a reason!!

200 PLUMPTON - lava Lamp should appreciate this drop in class and place at the very least in a difficult day's racing.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1230pm - Fortuna Dusseldorf v Bielefeld - 1.41 home - this is a dead rubber of sorts but Dusseldorf should win on form

1230pm - RANGERS v CELTIC a bit different this bet. BOOKING POINTS 9 points or more at 1.3 is tempting albeit in an illiquid market.

4pm - Bolton v Arsenal - 1.24 over 1.5 goals is reasonable I think given Arse's recent away exploits and the overall %'s of over 2.5 goals matches at home for Bolton and away for Arsenal.

4pm - Nancy v Arles - 1.5. I would only back Nancy on the fact they should be hugely motivated to win this match, have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6, 2 clean sheets in last 2 at home, and are playing a side who have won 1 match all season. I would back 0-0 insurance bet here.







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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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