Monday 4 April 2011

4/4

Tampines have beaten Woodlands 4-0, 5-0, 4-2, and scored after 8 minutes in their abandoned match on 21st March 2011. Tampines beat Singapore Armed forces 1-0 on 24th MArch. Singapore Armed forces beat Woodlands 5-0 on 8th March 2011.

All points to a Tampines win?
Realt Mor would be my horse to place today I feel , but backing a last time out faller requires faith.

*****1230pm - Woodlands Wellington v Tampines Rovers - - back Tampines Rovers in the Match odds market at 1.22 or thereabouts.*****


Ajax scored 3 yesterday so job done.

IN PLAY COUPON
1230pm - Geylang v Tanjong Pagar - 1.38 home - last 6 head to heads have been easily over 2.5 goals but they are from 2003 and 2004.
Looks as if Tanjong are new to the top flight, hence the price for Geylang. Not too sure re form and I would opt for a neutral goals bet. 4 of Geylang's last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
In 3 of Tanjong's last 4 matches, they have lost 4-1, 6-0, 3-0.

1230pm - Woodlands Wellington v Tampines Rovers - 1.22 away - worthwhile to look only at form from Feb 2011.
LLDLLL for the home team. At home, they have lost their 2 home matches 1-0 and 2-1.
Singapore Armed Forces recently beat Woodlands 5-0 and Tampines are only a point or so and a position lower in the league.
DWWWWD in recent matches.. This is a rescheduling of an earlier abandoned match with Tampines leading 1-0 after 8 minutes. This is quite a good sign for today's match.
Looks as if Tampines would, ideally, replicate Armed forces scoreline. If they scored within 8 minutes in the abandoned match, then this serves as a signal to back today?

1pm - Sibir v Torpedo Moscow - 1.58 home - Russian 2nd tier football - not for me thanks.
3pm - Terek Grozni v Tomsk - 1.53 home - Russian Top Flight, again not normally on my radar and not on soccerstats. Winter Break again tempers enthusiasm as Terek have only played 2 matches since the return, losing both. Tomsk have played 2 and lost 2 since the return. Totally unappealing. Terek have won the last 2 at home and lost the last 3 away from home in head to heads. Obviously better against Tomsk at home?
This is 15th against 16th of 16, and is totally unpredictable after so few goals. As it is so unpredictable, you could have a cheeky lay of Terek although that is entered into with minimal enthusiasm.

6pm - FC Midtjylland v Lyngby - 1.54 home - Danish top flight and on Soccerstats as well. 4th v 9th. Midt win their 2 games in hand and they go 2nd below runaway leaders FC Copenhagen. Incentivised therefore at home.
HEAD TO HEADS - last 4 head to heads have all been 2-1 scorelines ( 3 for Midt and 1 for Lyngby.) Only one recent 2010 head to head ( none in 2009) saw Midt lose 2-1 at home. Their goal was a penalty so not a striking performance. Next game was postponed, and as is the habit today, another rescheduled match today.

FC RECENT HOME FORM. - again we are suffering from Winter Break syndrome. Only 3 matches to work from starting March 2011 since the last match in November 2010.
DLLDDWWD
Since March 2011 WD - scoring 2 on both occasion so obviously conceded 2 goals in the draw .
Overall, at home, FC have scored 2 in all matches , drawing 2-2 against 10th,11th,12th and playing 9th today!!!
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWDDLWWDL -
Recent overall form since March 2011 return - WDL
GOAL TRENDS - FC have scored 2 goals exactly in each of their last 8 matches and only 1 in last match played ( but conceded 2)
2 of the 3 matches since comeback have been over 2.5 goals, the other match was a 2-0
73% home matches pre Winter Break and after have been over 2.5 goals.
Have scored 2 or more in 8 of their 10 league matches.

STREAKS - unbeaten in 5 at home ( 2 at home since return from Winter Break)

LYNGBY
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLDDL - since Winter return DDLincludes 1-1 against 3rd placed Brondby.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLDDDLL - DLL since winter break conceding 1,2,2.
GOAL TRENDS - only one of last 3 have been over 2.5 goals but the other 2 matches had 2 goals.
73% of away matches over 2.5 goals.
Only kept clean sheets in 9% of away matches.
Have not won away.
STREAKS - no win in 5 away, 6 in total.

Unsatisfactory research down to the return from the Winter Break and only 3 matches played in 2011.
Can FC Midj return to scoring 2 goals at home against a team who have not won away yet? Will the Winter Break provide a sense of the unpredictable as teams are regaining match fitness

645pm - Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah Tikva - 1.35 home - not on soccerstats but I did research successfully twice the Israeli league
HEAD TO HEADS - TEL 1-0 AWAY, TEL 7-1 HOME WIN, TEL 1-1 AWAY DRAW, TEL 5-1 AWAY WIN.
Tel Aviv can be extremely dominant when the fancy takes them but away generally matches have been tight ( 5-1 anomoly notwithstanding.)
Last home win was 7-1, which indicates why they are 1.35.
2nd v 13th in the league - Tel Aviv (HTA FROM NOW ON) have a game in hand over top side. If they win today, they move to within 4 points of Maccaibi Haifa so motivated to win.
PETAH are 7 points clear of the bottom 3 so no disaster if they lose.

HTA RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWW ( in fact winning run of 8 includes a cup win) Only 3 goals conceded at home in 7 league wins.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDWWWLWD - only 1 loss was 1-0 away at beitar Jerusalem and that saw a 73rd minute winner.
GOAL TRENDS - no soccerstats so I will try to get what I can from Futbol24 and Soccerway.
Average 2.54 goals scored at home.10 wins, 2 losses 1 draw at home. 4,5,4,2,2,4,2,1 scored by HTA at home recent matches, dwindling a little.

STREAKS - 7 match home winning run in the league. only 2 clean sheets in last 10 league matches.

HAPOEL PETAH TIKVA ( PETAH)

PETAH - RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLDLDWLD - recent loss against league leaders away was 2-0. Last 5 matches Petah have conceded 3,3,2,2,1 , winning one match 2-3.
PETAH RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWDWW - 5th, 11th, 10th, 6th have all been beaten recently. Contrasts with away form where there has only been 1 win in last 6 matches.
PETAH GOAL TRENDS - conceded 3,3,2,2,1 last 5 aways, the 1 was a 90th minute equaliser for opponents.
STREAKS - difficult to find.

Only 2 wins away all season but what do we make of solid recent form overall? Perhaps telling that the loss was against top side ( playing 2nd today?)



420 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Gay Gallivanter, 2/1 Here To Eternity, 3/1 Timpanist, 33/1 Tinkerbell Will, 50/1 Play The Blues.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only GAY GALLIVANTER has a decent chance of winning a turf maiden on what we've seen so far, though it's more than likely Here To Eternity will prove her 2yo debut all wrong by going on to better things this year.[Emily Weber]

A devilishly difficult card at Folkstone typical of early season turf flat cards. This market is interesting though, with Timpanist 14/1 in the live betting and 3/1 with the betting forecaster. From here to eternity is now odds on with Gay gallivanter the only other horse under 14/1

400 KELSO

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Realt Mor, 2/1 Rupert Lamb, 9/1 Kings Grey, 10/1 Tamanaco, 16/1 Fortuni, 20/1Brokethegate, 50/1 Dechiper, 50/1 Flaygray, 50/1 King Kalium, 66/1 Four Fiddlers, 66/1 Northern Acres, 100/1 Nisaal, 150/1Forrest Lemons, 200/1 Ashgrove Diamond, 200/1 Princess Cherry.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: REALT MOR looked highly promising on his hurdle debut at Ayr until coming to grief three out and he must be given the chance to make amends. There was plenty to like about Rupert Lamb's win at Hexham and he is preferred of the remainder.[Emily Weber]

3 under 14/1 here and Realt Mor caught the eye on his last run but for falling. Always a slight concern that previous fallers could do it again, but all reports are wholly positive as regards this one and if he has a clear round, he could win and should place.

Only 3 under 14/1, of course Kings Grey looks the ideal each way alternative.

430 KELSO

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Hold On Julio, 5/1 Rakerin Lad, 5/1 Silk Parasol, 8/1 Salveo, 10/1 Marksmore, 14/1 Temple Green, 20/1 Beau Traveller, 20/1 Putitawayforayear, 20/1 Stark Raven, 25/1 Zoren, 33/1 Ellandshe.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: More than one formline suggests HOLD ON JULIO is the one to beat and there should be further improvement to come from this 8yo, one of the youngest members of the field.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4/5 - - - - 6/1 for the favourite - quite a price gap but a maiden hunter chase.

240 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Lord Ofthe Shadows, 11/4 Sea Odyssey, 4/1 Silverheels, 8/1 Tango Sky, 10/1 Middleton Flyer, 14/1 Garrarufa, 14/1 Seven Year Itch, 16/1 Ciara Boo, 33/1 Bella Ponte, 50/1 Cool Kittiwake, 50/1 Joli Colourful.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Richard Hannon's Lord Ofthe Shadows is the obvious starting point given his yard's fine record with 2yos here, but the colt does lack big-race sales entries, unlike SEA ODYSSEY and Silverheels who are other likely types on paper.[Adrian Cook]

10 of the 11 runners are newcomers and a look at the market sees ciara Boo 16/1 in the betting forecast and 10/1 in the live betting - could be nothing but could be signs of a potential backed horse at good odds?


SHORTLIST

1230pm - Woodlands Wellington v Tampines Rovers - 1.22 away - beaten 5-0 by Singapore Armed Forces and Tampine only one place below SAF. Also this is a rescheduled match where Tampines went ahead 1-0 after 8 minutes before the match was abandoned. All augurs well for an away win?

6pm - FC Midtjylland v Lyngby - 1.54 home - 1.28 over 1.5 goals is interesting given last 4 head to heads 2-1. But this is one of those "returning from a Winter Break" leagues. FC have scored 2 exactly in 8 of last 9 matches!!

645pm - Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Petah Tikva - 1.35 home - home team motivated to close the gap. Niggle is Petah's great recent form of WWLWDWW but have only won 1 in last 6 away.

400 KELSO - Realt Mor looks booked to place with a clear round of jumping. Is Rupert Lamb safer with many clear rounds under his belt where Realt Mor fell last time .

1.23 Realt Mor and 1.35 Rupert Lamb







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