Thursday, 28 April 2011

28/4

***** 1230pm - Etoile v Young Lions - back Etoile at 1.17 match odds***** looks the safest bet of the day in a very niggly horse racing afternoon.




Hawaafez was 2nd 1.24 to place sp.

12pm - Dinamo Bucharest v Gloria Bistrita - 1.37 home. If you cannot do thorough research on a match , let it go and this is such a match.
1230pm - Etoile v Young Lions - 1.17 home - well the Singapore league sub 1.5 teams keep winning so we should expect goals from Etoile today.

HEAD TO HEADS

13.11.2010

Cup

Young Lions

0-3

Etoile FC (S)

23.10.2010

D1

Etoile FC (S)

3-0

Young Lions

13.07.2010

D1

Young Lions

1-2

Etoile FC (S)

29.04.2010

D1

Etoile FC (S)

2-0

Young Lions

LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 10th in a 12 team league. A win takes Etoile 2nd in the league and will not impact young lions who are 10th.

HOME TEAM ETOILE

ETOILE RECENT HOME FORM - WWWLWDWWL - losses against Singapore Armed Forces and Tampines Rovers - 3rd and 1st in the league.

ETOILE RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLWWWWLWD - again address those losses - against Tampines Rovers and Gomback United ( who are 5th)Loss against Gomback was a 91st minute goal so very unlucky.

ETOILE GOAL TRENDS - difficult to ascertain as Singapore League is not at www.soccerstats.com From www,soccerway.com, we see that Etoile's goal average at home is scoring 2, conceding 1 so a naturalised over 2.5 goals bet?

They've only failed to score in 2 matches all season.3 of the last 4 home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Infact, 6 of the last 7 home matches have been over 2.5 goals - the aberration was a 0-0.


ETOILE STREAKS - again difficult to find but some at www.futbol24.com.2 games without a loss. 3 home games without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - YOUNG LIONS

YOUNG LIONS -RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLDDLDLDL - going one of 2 ways this away match then! Last 2 losses away have been 1-0's and last 2 draws away have been 0-0's. Keep it tight?

YOUNG LIONS - RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDWLLDLLL - 5 losses in last 6 - win was a 3-2 win against Geylang United who are 9th in the league on 10 points.

YOUNG LIONS - GOAL TRENDS - a little confusing as soccerways gives an average away of 0 with 0.5 average conceded per match. This must be the last 6 matches. But I suppose is worth taking on board that Young lions cannot score against a team priced 1.17 today.

YOUNG LIONS - STREAKS -14 away games without a win.6 games overall without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Etoile look able to score 3+ , as is befitting of a side priced sub 1.20 but what do we make of Young Lion's recent defensive performances? 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 in the last 4 away matches. Speculators can try over 2.5 goals with all sub 1.20 shots but be mindful of Young Lions profligacy in conceding.

6pm - Hvidovre v AGF - 1.39 away -danish 2nd tier so perhaps not the kind of league to dwell on. Having said that , a 7-1 AGF win in September 2010 catches the eye making this 1.39 all the more interesting ( although likely to be in an illiquid market)

HEAD TO HEADS

12.09.2010

D2

AGF Aarhus

7-1

Hvidovre IF

LEAGUE POSITION – 16th v 1st –so immediately we know why AGF are so short

HOME TEAM HVIDOVRE

HVIDOVRE RECENT HOME FORM – DLLLWLLW – after the Winter Break LLW – the win was 3-2 against Hobro who are 12th in the league.

HVIDOVRE RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWLLLLLW – after the Winter Break LLLLLW 4/6 matches over 2.5 goals.

HVIDOVRE GOAL TRENDS – again no soccerstats so it will not be as accurate as normal. Average 1.18 scored and 1.91 conceded at home in last 11 matches. Have kept NO clean sheets home and away so expect AGF to get a goal at some stage. ( in play traders note that if it is 0-0 for an extended period you may want to lay the draw or back AGF. Hvidovre have failed to score in 7 matches.

HVIDOVRE STREAKS – from futbol24.com – 14 games in a row without a draw. 8 home matches without a draw. These streaks have been curtailed by the erroneous 3-2 win last time out!!

AWAY TEAM AGF

AGF RECENT AWAY FORM – WDDWWLDWW – the loss was against Bronshoj who are 4th in the league and was only 1-0 and AGF missed a penalty in that match which would have changed the stats somewhat.

AGF RECENT OVERALL FORM – After the winter break – DWW – AGF have scored 3 goals in their last 2 away matches. The 3-2 win saw AGF score 2 goals in 94th and 95th minute to win the match so a degree of caution re that form.

AGF GOAL TRENDS – Average 1.55 scored and 0.64 conceded in last 11 matches. 5 clean sheets away. Have failed to score in 3 matches this season.

AGF STREAKS – won their last 4 matches. 7 games without defeat. 4 matches without a draw. Have won their last 2 away but remember one of them saw 2 FERGIE TIME goals. 3 away without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – what to make of Hvidovre winning their last match? Totally out of character. And what of the 7-1 drubbing in the sole head to head. That must make the 1.39 a good bet? AGF’s away form since the break is a little iffy. A 1-1 draw, a 3-2 win requiring 2 94+minute goals and the 3-1 win which is sound. The lack of a draw between these sides is obvious from the research.

645pm - FC Zurich v Neuchatel Xamax - 1.46 home

HEAD TO HEADS

25.04.2011

Cup

FC Zürich

1-1/p.6-7

Neuchâtel Xamax

19.03.2011

D1

Neuchâtel Xamax

1-2

FC Zürich

30.10.2010

D1

FC Zürich

3-1

Neuchâtel Xamax

07.08.2010

D1

Neuchâtel Xamax

3-4

FC Zürich

16.05.2010

D1

Neuchâtel Xamax

3-3

FC Zürich

06.02.2010

D1

FC Zürich

0-0

Neuchâtel Xamax

Recent trend towards goals in the league.

LEAGUE POSITION 1st v 9th of 10. Basel have a game in hand in 2nd so Zurich should be looking to win home matches at least and keep the gap in place. A win takes Xamax 7th.

HOME TEAM – ZURICH

ZURICH RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWWW in the league at home – perfect post Winter Break form.

ZURICH RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWWWWWW – loss was v FC Basel ( 2nd placed) where Zurich scored first

ZURICH GOAL TRENDS – 60% over 2.5 goals at home. Score an average 2.06 and concede an average 1 goal at home.Up the goal rate against bottom 3 – 5-0 at home v 8th and 3-1 at home v 10th. . Only one of last 3 over 2.5 goals. But 3 of last 5 over 2.5 goals, and 7 out of last 10 over 2.5 goals, 2 clean sheets in last 3 matches. Have failed to score in only 2 matches all season.

ZURICH STREAKS – 10 at home without defeat. 6 at home without a draw. 6 match home winning streak. 11 matches overall without a draw. 6 matches overall without defeat.

AWAY TEAM XAMAX

XAMAX RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLLD since the Winter Break. Draw was v bottom side. Have lost all other away matches , albeit only 1-0 to league leaders., and by 1 goal in all other matches ( 3-2, 2-1, 1-0)

XAMAX RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDLLLLLDWD – 2 -1 home win v Luzern one of 2 wins all season. 2-2 home draw with Basel recently. A feeling that Zurich could lead then but might be vulnerable to a draw.

XAMAX GOAL TRENDS – conceded 1.78 away from home. 5 of last 8 over 2.5 goals Have conceded in last 8 matches and have scored in 6 of last 8 matches. 57% over 2.5 goals away from home.

XAMAX STREAKS – 5 away without a win and 3 away without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – xamax may lose but it is likely to be by a 1 goal margin which brings the asian handicap into play? They have not lost by more than one goal away from home. Perhaps a 2-1 scoreline rather than a 3-1 today?

715pm - Sion v Biel - 1.3 home - Swiss Cup and Sion beat Biel 4-1 in a recent friendly on 12th January 2011 during the Winter Break. Division 1 v Division 2. That recent form a boost for SIon backers or acknowledgement this was a friendly, and today this is a Cup match?

805pm - Benfica v Braga - 1.59 home - 2 Portugeuse sides in europa League semi final first leg. Is it woth looking at league form? I don't think so because league tactics v one off 1st leg matches with permutations are completely different.


805pm - Porto v Villarreal - 1.66 home - old reliable Porto are at home in the Europa League and with the season they have had, I have no doubt they will be giving 100% and will more likely than not do what is necessary this evening ( which will include scoring and probably keeping a clean sheet). The Racing Post is strong on Villareal today and understandably they play better quality opponents, but the winning mentality Porto have must count for something.

505 BRIGHTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Always Ends Well, 9/4 Pitt Rivers, 7/1 Pius Parker, 10/1 First Rebellion, 20/1 Red Hearts.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Always End Well sets a fair standard and is likely to be bang there once again, but PITT RIVERS (nap)has the potential to improve past the Mark Johnston filly.[Ron Wood]

The Johnston/Fanning crew had a nice winner last night and Always ends well should place in this 2 year old maiden.

Brighton, we must remember, is an undulating track which may throw the form out of the window.

500 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Accordion Exhibit, 3/1 Ely Brown, 8/1 Intoxicate, 14/1 Highway Jack, 14/1 Posh Totty, 16/1 Harrys Gunner, 20/1 Setters Gift.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rebecca Curtis does terrifically well here in bumpers and has won the last two renewals of this one, soACCORDION EXHIBIT rather picks himself in what is probably a bad race.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Based on nothing more than reputation, Accordion Exhibit for Rebecca Curtis and McCoy have a good chance of placing, but this is a bumper with a lot of newcomers.

615 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Offshore Account, 11/4 Breaking Silence, 4/1 Sprosser, 16/1 Rustic John, 25/1 Silly Wupple.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OFFSHORE ACCOUNT, who ran well in the big hunter chase over the National fences at Aintree last time, looks the one to beat on recent evidence, with question marks over whether main form rivals Breaking Silence and Sprosser are capable of running to their best at present.[Steven Boow]

3 under 14/1 here for this Hunters chase

715 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Bellaboosh, 7/4 Lucky Mix, 5/1 Maxford Lass, 8/1 Landenstown Pearl, 12/1 Kitchen Loan, 16/1 Mrs Peacock, 33/1 Lady Treacle, 40/1 Poppy Lee Brown, 66/1 Bunny Girl, 66/1 Living Proof, 100/1 Thorney Rose.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bellaboosh is open to progress after making a successful hurdling debut at Bangor but LUCKY MIX also showed plenty of promise on her first outing in this sphere, leaving the firm impression a step up to this sort of trip will suit, and she can make the most of the 6lb she receives from the Henderson runner.[Steven Boow]

3 under 14/1 - best to look nearer the 715

555 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rose Bonheur, 4/1 Good Shot Noreen, 5/1 Balmont Mast, 12/1 Lord Windark, 14/1 Favourite Dancer, 14/1 Kucharova, 16/1 Sine, 20/1 Marvada, 25/1 El Toreros, 25/1 You Win I Lose, 33/1 Lady Antebellum, 33/1 Stoichkhov.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With form that ties in with the Nell Gwyn runner-up, ROSE BONHEUR is hard to oppose, with perhaps just a slight reservation that the trip might prove a bit sharper than ideal. Good Shot Noreen is the forecast suggestion. [Alan Sweetman]

short priced fav one of 3 under 12/1 and a 3rd 2nd place implies consistency.

655 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Northern Rocked, 2/1 Finicius, 13/2 Blaze Brightly, 7/1 Fighting Brave, 10/1 Lord High Admiral, 10/1 Separate Ways, 33/1 Arminta, 33/1 Mysouff, 50/1 Tres Froide.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some of these may struggle to justify their ratings, and look vulnerable against the progressiveNORTHERN ROCKED (nap) who gets the vote over Finicius. Best of the remainder may be Blaze Brightly. [Alan Sweetman]

Weld/Smullen favourites always interest me and so Northern Rocked may be preferred to joint fav Finicius

825 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Wonder Of Wonders, 11/4 Emotional Dream, 6/1 Picture Of Lily, 16/1 Mojita, 25/1 Crystal Highness, 33/1 Darika, 50/1 Llew Law.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WONDER OF WONDERS is a very promising filly and can be expected to win this before going on to much better things. Emotional Dream is the one for the forecast. [Kevin Blake]

FAith in the Ballydoyle fav in the last? THe market sees this as a 2 horse race with the rest


SHORTLIST

1230pm - Etoile v Young Lions - 1.17 home - expect a replication of last 2 3-0's if sub 1.20

6pm - Hvidovre v AGF - 1.39 away - beatn Hvidovre 7-1in sole head to head and Hvidovre tend not to win .

645pm - FC Zurich v Neuchatel Xamax - 1.46 home - likely to be a tight match this one but Zurich should out.

715pm - Sion v Biel - 1.3 home - the coincidental recent friendly in Jan saw Sion 4-1 victors - a nice recent pointer to the outcome of this Cup match?

505 BRIGHTON - the undulations may be a problem for 2 year olds. If not, faith in the Fanning/Johnston combo on Always ends well at 1.18 to place


715 SOUTHWELL - default on the fav to place here but need to see the market nearer the off.

555 TIPPERARY - Rose Bonheur, it is hoped, will replay her consistent placed efforts despite a drop in trip. THe place only odds are terribly skinny and hopefully will improve to race time.

825 TIPPERARY - Wonder of Wonders should win this but I need to see the market nearer the off






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