It looks like the 400 Exeter and Rangers today as solid bets. I would expect a fight back from Rangers today after dropping points at home to Dundee United. St Johnstone have failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches. 4 0-0's in their last 6 matches.
I suspect that Rangers will hold them at bay, but will St Johnstone hold Rangers at bay?
6pm - St Johnstone v Rangers - back Rangers in the match odds at odds of 1.51. Place an insurance bet on 0-0 correct score at odds of 14.5 As an example, imagine that I am using £100 stakes .
STEP 1) Back Rangers in the match odds at odds of 1.51 for £100
STEP 2) Go to the Correct score market and back 0-0 at odds of 14.5 for £7.50. If the match finishes 0-0 you will win £101.25 , covering the lost match odds stake.
I hope this makes sense. The 0-0 is an insurance bet.
Tampines Rovers came from a goal behind to win. Realt Mor won as well so that fall last time was just one of those things.
2pm -
Denmark U19 (W) v Lithuania U19 (W) - 1.14 home - both teams have played France and Holland recently, Lithuania conceding 18 goals in 2 matches and Denmark 3 in each match. This is a World Cup qualifier so both countries going for it. No head to heads, just that collateral form and the odds for Denmark. Goals perhaps?4pm - CSKA Sofia v Cherno More - 1.43 home - Bulgarian Cup match best left alone . 2 Division 1 sides and we know little of motivation to win this particular Cup tournament. 5pm - NK Maribor v Primorje - 1.43 home - Slovakian Top Flight. Not a league I can justifiably spend time on. 5 or 6 games played since Winter break and sides are, apparently 3rd and 4th in the league. 6pm - St Johnstone v Rangers - 1.49 away - Rangers are 6 out of 6 in Head to Heads , scoring 2,3,2,4,2,4 -consistent. 8th v 2nd and Rangers cocked it up at home against Dundee United losing 3-2. On equal matches played with celtic but 2 points behind.
This becomes even more of a must win for Rangers.
The bottom 2 seems adrift now and St Johnstone look safe I think from any threat of relegation.
ST JOHNSTONE RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWDDDD - fantastic recent home form. Of course,form against the Old Firm should be looked at separately.
Against top 3, it's emphatically 5 losses out of the 5 home and away matches played. Against Old Firm , lost 3-0 at home to Celtic, 2-0 away at Celtic, and 4-0 away at Rangers.
ST JOHNSTONE RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLDLDDDD - again Old Firm form v others must be made distinct. The Loss was 4-0 away at Rangers.One other loss was at 3rd placed Hearts.
ST JOHNSTONE GOAL TRENDS - - only 20% of home matches over 2.5 goals but remember Old Firm must be singled out - at home v Celtic, lost 3-0.
Scored 9 and conceded 13 at home this season, but remember against top 3, they conceded 5 of those goals at home.
Only 2 of last 15 matches have been over 2.5 goals , one of those was against Rangers.
3 of the last 4 matches have been 0-0's. Last 4 matches have seen St Johnstone only score 1 goal in a 1-1 draw.
St Johnstone have failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches. Quite a standout stat which I think we saw with Sheffield United yesterday.
4 0-0's in their last 6 matches.
ST JOHNSTONE STREAKS - 8 home matches without defeat, 4 matches drawing but yet again Old Firm is wholly separate to the rest of the league.
RANGERS
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWDWLWLW - losses against top 3 sides only - all wins away against bottom 4 ( St Johnstone are 5th from bottom)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWWWLWWWL - 13 matches overall without a draw ( and St Johnstone have drawn their last 4 - a sequence due to end perhaps?)
GOAL TRENDS - score an average 2.07 away from home per match.
69% of away matches over 2.5 goals.
5 of the last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Clean sheet in 5 of last 8 matches.
The only times Rangers have failed to score was twice against Celtic, once against 3rd placed Hearts and anomolous result against Hibs.
STREAKS - 13 matches in all without a draw - 5 matches away from home.
This is a must win for Rangers, and given the debacle against Dundee United, perhaps trading would be better. Whenever we look at SPL we must make a distinction between teams' form against the top 2 ( or 3 with Hearts) and against the rest. The difference is huge.
Against the top 3 home and away St Johnstone have lost the lot - it is a step too far.
Pressure even more so on Rangers after loss against Dundee United. Cover 0-0 in case St Johnstone bring in their form against recent sides.
Be wary too of teams who meet recently. 4-0 on 27th February is very recent and St Johnstone will be aware that they do not want another mauling.
DL for Steaua in recent league matches since Feb 2011 at home and LLL for Unirea away.
Not much to go on just yet.
Last 3 head to heads have been 1-0 at Steaua with last match a 1-0 Unirea win.
Makes for an unappealing match at this early stage after the Winter Break.
745pm - Inter v Schalke - 1.61 home - one off high stakes Champions League match and home teams must take advantage and ensure there are no away goals conceded. I take my cues here from the Racing Post and it points to an Inter side which has won 7 of its last 8 Champions League matches. Schalke are missing a raft of key players in midfield. I will take a look at Futbol24.com to see if I can see any patterns that might help. 1.61, under the current circumstances , is of some appeal.
Inter's 3-0 loss at AC Milan should be put into the context of tonight's match , just as Real Madrid's loss against Gijon could justifiably be put down to a focus on Champions League.
745pm - Real Madrid v Tottenham - 1.43 home - Will Real lose 2 home matches on the trot? And under a manager who will be fuming that his 9 year home unbeaten record in the league ended at the weekend. Quite simply, team news a key here. Ronaldo and Benzema playing? Bale playing? 3 0-0 draws in Spurs' last 3 matches is interesting and ideal coming into tonight's match. Defensive display a must tonight. The last time Real lost 2 games on the trot was c. 120 games ago in May 2009.
745pm - Southampton v Charlton - 1.51 home - 3 league 1 head to heads 1-1 draw Southampton away, 1-0 Southampton home win, 1-1 Southampton away draw. Tight matches. 3rd v 12th. Southampton ( Soton from now on) have 2 games in hand over top and 3 games in hand over 2nd - if they win all 3 in hand , they go 2nd
Charlton are safe - not going to be promoted or relegated so foot off the gas!!
SOTON RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWWWWW - perfect for a push to the end of the season. Is Le Tiss playing for them again?
4,4,0,1,4,3,2,3 scored in those home matches. Very consistent generally.
SOTON RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDWLWWWWDW - 1 loss in last 12 matches is excellent form - that loss was away at lowly Walsall.
SOTON GOAL TRENDS - kept clean sheets in 53% of home matches.
Only 42% over 2.5 goals at home - 2,3,3,2,1,3 scored in last 6 matches overall and 4,4,0,1,4,3,2,3 in last 8 home matches.
A massive 47 goals scored in 2nd half and 36 goals in first half hour of 2nd half.
Lambert, Barnard and Fonte like scoring at home.
Only 12 goals conceded in 22 matches at home this season.
SOTON STREAKS - 5 match home winning streak, 8 matches at home without a draw, 6 overall without a draw.
CHARLTON RECENT AWAY FORM - DDDWLLLLDL - sharp contrast to Soton's home form. -away to top 6 a mixed bag of 1-1 draw Brighton, 3-1 loss to Huddersfield, 1-5 win over Peterborough and 2-0 loss to Milton Keynes. obviously the Peterborough match looks an anomoly and was part of a month where Charlton won 5 matches on the trot.
CHARLTON RECENT FORM OVERALL -LLLLDLLLDDLW - recent win was 3-1 home win over Leyton Orient.
CHARLTON GOAL TRENDS - 63% over 2.5 goals away.
Have conceded in all of last 13 matches.
19 goals scored in last quarter of an hour of matches , also conceding 16.
CHARLTON STREAKS - 6 away matches without a win.
5 losses and a draw in Charlton's last 6 away matches.
7 wins and a draw in Soton's last 8 home matches. Quite a contrast. Charlton have conceded in all of their last 13 matches. Soton have kept clean sheets in 53% of home matches. 2,3,3,2,1,3 scored in last 6 at home. 4,3,2,3 scored in last 4 home matches. Looks like Soton are the most likely goalscorers today and could realistically aim for 2 or 3 goals at home.
What of Charlton's mullering of Peterborough at home - 5-1 - looks anomolous and harks back to a single month when Charlton were in red hot form.
745pm - Bristol Rovers v Bournemouth - 2.4 away - as this is a quiet day and as Bournemouth and Bristol Rovers are at differing sides of the table, it might be worth doing some research on this match. These 2 last met in 2008 so head to heads are not really valid.
22nd v 6th and you would not expect 6th placed to be such a big( relatively speaking) price.
BRISTOL ROVERS RECENT HOME FORM - DDWLLWLLLD - poor enough form. Against the top 5 at home, have lost 4 and drawn 2-2 against Peterborough ( says more about Peterborough than Rovers' capabilities) That 2-2 draw came in the last home match.
BRISTOL ROVERS RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLWLLLWLWDW - we see, in the last 5 matches, a sign that Rovers are fighting for survival ( they are in the bottom 3 currently)
GOAL TRENDS - 7 of Rovers last 9 matches have had 1-0 scorelines. 4 wins were 1-0 and 3 losses were 1-0. 2 recent losses at home were 1-0's
It puts the overall form into perspective somewhat. They seem very unlucky.2nd , 9th, 11th, 15th, 17th, 19th, 20th, were the teams positions where we had 1-0 results. Huddersfield 1-0 loss stands out - they are 2nd.
58% of home matches over 2.5 goals.
43 goals conceded in 2nd half. 4 of the last 5 matches have been 1-0 but note 3 of those were away wins.
BOURNEMOUTH RECENT AWAY FORM - LDWWWLLD. Against bottom 7, Bournemouth have won all of the 5 matches they have played . This makes the 2.4 of some small appeal.
2 losses and a draw in last 3 away matches may be a sign of vulnerability.
BOURNEMOUTH RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWDDWWLLLDD - inconsistent and no win in last 5.
BOURNEMOUTH GOAL TRENDS - 47% over 2.5 goals away - Bournemouth have failed to score in 32% of their away matches - that's a third of matches away!!
Bournemouth have conceded 2,3,1,2,3 in their last 5 matches. 5 of last 7 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.Bournemouth have conceded in all of last 5 matches.
Bournemouth have only failed to score in 3 of last 14 matches.
SCored 35 in 2nd half and conceded 16 goals in last quarter of an hour.
3,2,1,2,2 scored by Bournemouth away to bottom 7.
BOURNEMOUTH STREAKS - no win in 3 away.
It's those 1-0's for Bristol Rovers which makes this difficult to decipher. Rovers are only just losing when losing and prove, as against 2nd placed Huddersfield, that they can play well against the big boys.
SO what do we make of Bournemouth's ease of victories away to bottom 7. Bournemouth have failed to score in 32% of their away matches and they are playing 1-0 merchants today?
Could be worth backing 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 ? All dependent on a poor Bristol Rovers continuing to be tight against a Bournemouth regularly scoring 2 or more against bottom 5 away. Who do you have most faith in?
400 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Hidden Keel, 13/8 Requin, 4/1 Rougham, 33/1 Solitary Palm, 40/1 Humbel Ben, 50/1Mangonel, 66/1 Lupita, 200/1 Secret Shared.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Official and Racing Post ratings give Hidden Keel an advantage but he will not have an easy time up front with Rougham in opposition and could be vulnerable to REQUIN's finishing kick. [Frank Carter]
8 runners , 3 under 33/1 in the betting forecast , 3 under 20/1 in the live betting market ( Humbel Ben now 20/1) makes this race very interesting from a place only perspective.
Clear rounds as ever in this novice chase.
430 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Oca De Thaix, 5/1 Louis Pasteur, 5/1 What Of It, 11/2 Vintage Class, 6/1 Blackstaff, 16/1King Of The Road, 16/1 Princesse De Rome, 20/1 Thirtytwo Red, 33/1 Brook Castle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OCA DE THAIX (nap) has been in fine fettle for his new trainer and has a decent chance of making it four on the trot. Louis Pasteur and What Of It can have cases made at the weights on their form with the selection and while they don't have the same momentum they should still be involved.[Emily Weber]
Only 5 under 33/1 in this hunters chase. Probability chance that the 3 places will come from these 5 principles?
220 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mrs Mop, 5/2 That´s Dangerous, 5/1 Snowed In, 10/1 Multi Blessing.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Snowed In was beaten a fair way here ten days ago but he's the only runner with the benefit of experience and entitled to improve for the run. However, he's up against a couple of likely sorts in That's Dangerous andMRS MOP, with the Richard Hannon-trained filly having particularly strong credentials. It will be interesting to see market signals for both runners.[Steven Boow]
It remains to be seen whether Hannon/Hughes are as amazing as they were last year ( almost backable every race ) -Mrs Mop, the newcomer, is inevitable favourite in a race where there are 4 horses and 2 places.
515 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dance Secretary, 7/2 Vastitas, 4/1 Asheerah, 5/1 London Plane, 5/1 Olfa, 10/1 Sionan, 16/1Yes Mam, 33/1 Hasty Harriet, 33/1 Mellow Manner, 33/1 Oakwood Princess, 33/1 Thistle Thunder.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Asheerah and Vastitas are both rated 82 coming into this and command respect along with newcomer's Olfa and London Plane but preference is for the John Oxx-trained DANCE SECRETARY to build on her pleasing debut effort at Leopardstown last season. [Brian Fleming]
6 under 33/1 here -will they dominate? Dance Secretary has Murtagh riding for John Oxx and has hardened into 5/4
510 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Agapanthus, 7/2 Gunslinger, 4/1 Hallstatt, 11/2 Folk Tune, 6/1 Rowan Tiger, 7/1 Record Breaker, 16/1 Amazing Blue Sky.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gunslinger comes here on the back of some good performances on the AW but ifAGAPANTHUS turns up at his best, he will be very hard to beat. Barney Curley's representative has won first time out in each of the last two seasons and although his best efforts have come over shorter, this isn't sure to be run at an end-to-end gallop.[Paul Smith]
Interesting that Barney Curley's runner is 2/1 with Ladbrokes and 4/1 2nd fav elsewhere.
SHORTLIST
2pm - Denmark U19 (W) v Lithuania U19 (W) - 1.14 home - this is now 1.04 to back . Shows an illiquid betting market. as ever goals should be expected - likely to be an illiquid betting market. Halftime/fulltime Denmark/Denmark
6pm - St Johnstone v Rangers - 1.49 away - losing 3-2 at home last time out when primed to go top leaves Rangers needing to win here. I would cover 0-0 here as St Johnstone have found it hard to score but have been hard to score against. BUT that was only against other-than-Top 3.
I think Rangers will react tonight . I cannot see St Johnstone winning, and the 0-0 is viable if they have a habit of this scoreline.
400 EXETER - bar the fact that this is a novice chase, 8 runners and 3 places. 3 horses under 20/1 should dominate.Hidden Keel 1.16 to place and Requin 1.18 to place. Surely the fav has a great probability chance of placing here?
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