HEAD TO HEADS
| 24.10.2010 | |||||
| 11.09.2010 | |||||
| 09.05.2010 | |||||
| 25.10.2009 | |||||
| 01.08.2009 |
2010 and Copenhagen have scored 5 in last 2
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 5th and I have mentioned in the last 3 matches I did with Copenhagen that they have no reason to win, but they have won their last 3 matches 3-1, 3-1, 2-1 so there is no letting up here
HOME TEAM
RECENT HOME FORM –– 11 wins and 2 draws at home. 9 match winning streak at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWLWWDWWW – loss and draw away from home.
GOAL TRENDS – have only failed to score less than 2 goals at home in one match this season.69% overs at home. Of course, have scored in all home matches. 46% clean sheets at home. 73% average overall over 2.5 goals home and away. 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 5 matches and only failed to score in 1 match all season.
STREAKS – 9 match home winning streak. 13 matches at home without defeat. 6 overall without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - Silkeborg
Silkeborg RECENT AWAY FORM – LDWDWLLDDD – 3 draws on the trot away all score draws.
Silkeborg RECENT OVERALL FORM -WWLDLDDWDDWDW – all recent draws score draws.
Silkeborg GOAL TRENDS – 54% over 2.5 goals away.Only 1 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals but note the score draws, most of which are 1-1.
Silkeborg STREAKS – 5 away without a win.8 overall without defeat.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Copenhagen are not allowing complacency in , as I have feared in their last 3 and could be reliant betting propositions again today against a team they have already beaten. Watch out for the 1-1 draws prevalent in Silkeborg’s recent 8 match unbeaten run. Over 1.5 , over 2.5 goals covers any surprises.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 04.12.2010 | |||||
| 28.10.2008 | |||||
| 04.10.2008 |
2009 absent as Derby were elsewhere.
LEAGUE POSITION 2nd v 19th. 7 point 2nd place so a win would not go amiss for Naaarich.Cardiff are 1 point slack in 3rd and on nearly the same goal difference. Must win therefore for Norwich. Derby seem to be safe I would imagine in 19th on 49 points with 3rd bottom on 41 points, and I suspect a win would confirm status for this season.
HOME TEAM – NORWICH
NORWICH RECENT HOME FORM – WWDWWDDWWW – flying at the right time of the season. Have drawn 1-1 with Doncaster and lost 1-2 at home to palace ( 20th and 21st)
NORWICH RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDDWDWWDWLDWW – draw and loss were away from home to 5th and 11th.
NORWICH GOAL TRENDS – 57% over 2.5 goals at home.Last 5 matches all over 2.5 goals. 7 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 13 of last 15 matches. Have scored in 14 of last 15 matches – a naturalised over 1.5 goals. Last 8 home matches all over 1.5 goals. Have scored a whopping 41 goals in last ½ hour of matches. Average 2 goals scored per home match.
NORWICH STREAKS – 10 without defeat at home. 3 match home winning streak. G Holt is key to Norwich at home.
AWAY TEAM DERBY COUNTY
DERBY COUNTY RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLWLDDWLDLD – only 1 win in last 7 away. Have only played 3 of top 5 away, 0-0 v QPR, 4-1 loss to Cardiff and 0-0 v Swansea.
DERBY COUNTY RECENT OVERALL FORM – DLDLWLDLWDLDWDL – inconsistent is the only word to describe that!! Have not beaten any of the top 4 home and away.
DERBY COUNTY GOAL TRENDS – 48% over 2.5 goals away from home. 8 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals. 5 of 6 matches against top 4 home and away over 2.5 goals. Conceded in 7 of last 8 matches. Have scored in 7 of last 8 matches.
DERBY COUNTY STREAKS – 4 away without a win. Have conceded 34 goals away from home.
DERBY COUNTY CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS -7 of last 8 matches overs for Norwich and 8 of last 10 matches overs for Derby represent good recent evidence for goals. Norwich have conceded in 13 of last 15., Derby in 7 of last 8 matches. Norwich have scored in 14 of last 15, and Derby 7 of last 8. Both teams to score? Over 1.5 goals and thus a push to over 2.5 goals. Motivation factor a reason to back to lay Norwich in the match odds? What do we make of Derby’s recent 0-0 away at league leaders QPR? A very recent match.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 15.02.2011 | LCh | Sheffield Utd | 1-1 | Reading FC | |
| 26.01.2010 | LCh | Sheffield Utd | 3-0 | Reading FC | |
| 22.08.2009 | LCh | Reading FC | 1-3 | Sheffield Utd | |
| 10.04.2009 | LCh | Reading FC | 0-1 | Sheffield Utd |
Are United a bogey team for Reading?
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v bottom will explain the short price about Reading given the head to heads concerns. A win will take Reading provisionally 3rd ( based on other results) and a win will take United equal 3rd bottom but strictly 2nd from bottom on goal difference again based on how Scunny do. Again we have top v bottom, both sides needing points and dare I remind you of Willem II, or Mgladbach this weekend?
HOME TEAM - READING
READING RECENT HOME FORM - DWWDLDWWWWW - great recent home winning form for Reading at the right time of the season. Only 3losses at home all season, include 2 1-0's against 1st and 5th in the league and an anomolous loss to Scunny which was the first match of the season and best forgotten as it is irrelevant.
Against the bottom 5, reading have won 3 and lost that one v Scunny. The wins are more typical.
READING RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWDWWWWWWWWD - superb stuff from Reading and they are choo chooing up the table with this kind of form. What chance bottom side today?
READING GOAL TRENDS - 52% over 2.5 goals at home - 3 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. 4 of Reading's last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, the exception 2-0 win. Have kept 2 clean sheets in the last 3. Have scored in 14 of last 15 matches. Failed to score in last match. Reading have scored 35 goals in the last half hour of matches. Long and Harte are key to Reading goals wise at home.
AWAY TEAM - SHEFFIELD UNITED
SHEFFIELD UNITED RECENT AWAY FORM - only 3 wins away all season. DLLLLLLL stark contrast with Southampton - away to top 8 lost 3-0 to QPR, 4-2 to Norwich, 1-1 to Cardiff, not played 4th or 5th away, 1-1 forest and 4-2 loss to Burnley. Not won away .
SHEFFIELD UNITED RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLWLWLLLLW - not a draw in sight and wins coming at home against 6th, 7th and 15th.
SHEFFIELD UNITED GOAL TRENDS - have conceded 3 goals in last 3 away matches. Have only scored 1 goals away in last 4 matches. 6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals with the exceptions 2 2-0 results. Only 1 clean sheet in last 16 matches. Have failed to score in 6 of last 12 matches.
SHEFFIELD UNITED STREAKS - no win in 12 away, have lost last 7 away. No draw in 12 matches away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the dilemma here is how much weight we put on head to heads which see Sheffield United unbeatable against Reading recently. Quite obviously Reading are the clear form choice here and over 2.5 goals could be tradeable.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 22.02.2011 | L1 | Hartlepool Utd | 0-0 | Southampton | |
| 23.03.2010 | L1 | Southampton | 3-2 | Hartlepool Utd | |
| 24.11.2009 | L1 | Hartlepool Utd | 1-3 | Southampton |
LEAGUE POSITION 2nd v 14th. Southampton will not catch Brighton but are level with 3rd place and must win to consolidate 2nd place and automatic promotion? Hartlepool have little or nothing to play for and will gain and win nothing so immediately we should expect the motivated side ( Soton) to go for it.
HOME TEAM - SOTON
SOTON RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWWWWWW - 7 match winning streak at home, is rock solid. Against 13th to 18th in the league, Soton have scored 2 or more, won the lot, and only conceded 1 ( Hartlepool are 14th)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWWWWDWWWLWW - ONLY RECENT losses have come away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - 38% over 2.5 goals at home this season. the reason? They concede only 0.57 goals on average at home. 57% clean sheets at home. - Only 1 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Only 2 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored in 10 of last 11 matches. 3 clean sheets in last 5. 53 goals scored in 2nd half.
STREAKS - 7 match home winning streak, 7 without a draw, 10 overall without defeat.
AWAY TEAM HARTLEPOOL
HARTLEPOOL RECENT AWAY FORM- LDLLLWLLDL - - MOST RECENT WIN against 9th in the table but on a poor run of away form. Have lost to 3 of top 5 they have played away, with a 1-0 win over Huddersfield. Twice have they conceded 4 goals.
HARTLEPOOL RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLWLWLLLDWLD - ONLY 1 win in last 7 matches is poor form.
HARTLEPOOL GOAL TRENDS - 33% over 2.5 goals away and failed to score in 48% of away matches, nearly 1 in 2. Only 2 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all of last 7. Have failed to score in 3 of last 7. Concede a whopping 42 goals in the 2nd half ( remember Soton's goalscoring in the 2nd half!!)
Have only scored 2 goals away to top 4. Have conceded in last 9 away matches.
HARTLEPOOL STREAKS- 4 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - markedly contrasting stats and if Soton are on song, this might be another 4 goal thrashing for Hartlepool. Soton simply have to win and Hart are in mid table mediocrity with nothing to gain or lose. Watch out for 2nd half fireworks as Hart conceded 42 and Soton scored 53 in the 2nd half. Hart have conceded in last 9 away matches and with Soton's 57% cleansheets at home, expect Soton to score first.
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Make It Better, 5/1 Rose Of Fairyhill, 6/1 Magical Mother, 7/1 Calypso Queen, 8/1 Miss Brownstown, 10/1 Fiona Girl, 10/1 First Leader, 10/1 Hansel Monday, 10/1 Thanks For Smoking, 14/1 Echo Falls, 14/1 Pride Of Kilbride, 16/1Mocklershill Lass.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This provides an ideal opportunity for MAKE IT BETTER who has established a good sequence in point-to-points. Rose Of Fairyhill and Magical Mother are perhaps the most likely candidates for a share of the money.[Alan Sweetman]
5/4 fav and one of only 3 under 12/1 - winning in point to points so we can infer that this horse is a sound jumper for this hunter chase.
510 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Annacarton, 9/2 Farmer Grant, 13/2 Optimus Prime, 8/1 Heavenly Bound, 12/1 Verumontanum, 14/1Juveigneur, 16/1 Emergency Cover, 25/1 Alabama Baby, 25/1 Present Citizen, 25/1 Wee Jerry.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Good ground brought the best out of ANNACARTON last spring, and it has been a similar story in recent weeks. He has a clear edge over Optimus Prime on recent running, and may be given most to do by Farmer Grant who was a useful type in handicaps at his best. [Alan Sweetman]
1/2 - - - 8/1 in
the live betting market makes this Annacarton of obvious interest.
235 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Voler La Vedette, 4/1 Donnas Palm, 5/1 Stonemaster, 11/2 Blackstairmountain, 8/1 Oscar Dan Dan, 8/1 Son Amix, 12/1 Jumbo Rio, 14/1 Gimli´s Rock, 33/1 Deutschland, 33/1 Silk Hall.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks an intriguing Grade 2 event to start proceedings on Ladbrokes Irish Grand National day andVOLER LA VEDETTE makes most appeal to supplement her Boyne Hurdle win in February over Donnas Palm, Stonemaster andSon Amix. [Brian Fleming]
Voler La Vedette has a 71 day absence but is now 13/8 - - - 5/1 fav here in this top class race. Mullins/Walsh on Blackstairmountain look a good each way alternative.
410 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Isle Of Inishmore, 5/2 Sarahs Gift, 13/2 Shinnecock Bay, 16/1 Kyathos.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sarahs Gift, off the track since November, returned from a similar layoff to win this contest last year but he may have to play second fiddle to the progressive ISLE OF INISHMORE (nap) who should be capable of further improvement.[Steven Boow]
Should be a 3 horse race for 2 places - default to the favourite?
210 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Timesawastin, 4/1 The Herb, 13/2 Ongenstown Lad, 15/2 Wings Of Smoke, 20/1 Yorkshire Knight, 25/1 Casper´s Shadow.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIMESAWASTIN looks to have been found another weak race after winning an uncompetitive maiden hurdle here last time and should be hard to beat. Former Irish point winner The Herb may be next best. [Mel Cullinan]
2/9 - - - -10/1 here in the live betting.
430 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Prince Massini, 9/4 Baily Storm, 9/2 Circus Of Dreams.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRINCE MASSINI is very much the one to beat after winning here last time when returned to fences and with a 6lb rise for that perfectly fair - the first two were clear. Baily Storm is preferred to Circus Of Dreams for forecast seekers. [Mel Cullinan]
The fav is a course and distance winner and in a 3 horse race for 2 places, may be worth a shout probability wise.
425 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Pugnacity, 8/1 Any Given Moment, 8/1 Muntami, 9/1 Sheepclose, 10/1 Galley Slave, 10/1 Himayna, 12/1 Follow On, 12/1 Moon Melody, 12/1 Solway Blue, 40/1 Cottam Grange.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A 7lb penalty wouldn't have stopped PUGNACITY (nap) in the seller she won at Wetherby recently and, provided she avoids the bounce factor, she can go in again in what is nominally better company. Any Given Moment could improve for blinkers and pose most problems.[Paul Johnson]
Huge price gapper albeit in a conditional jockey's event.
440 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Hi Ho Silvia, 11/2 Moonbalej, 6/1 Le Toto, 16/1 Dalrymple.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hi Ho Silvia has plenty going for her and is clearly the one to beat. The case for TECKTAL is much less obvious but if she can bring her Flat ability to bear, she is no forlorn hope.[Jonathan Neesom]
4/5 in a 50/50 place only race
420 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Piave, 3/1 Bajan Flash, 3/1 Residence And Spa, 8/1 Royal Bonsai, 20/1 Sartingo, 66/1 Molannarch, 100/1 Into Mac, 100/1 Lemon Queen, 100/1 Stella Marris.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest maiden in which PIAVE, who made an encouraging 2yo debut at Newmarket, can beat the more-exposed pair Residence And Spa and Bajan Flash.[Adrian Cook]
4 under 20/1 in the live betting and I would prefer a recent runner ( Bajan Flash for example) instead of the fav who has a fairly long absence to overcome.
300 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Van Go Go, 7/1 Miss Muga, 8/1 I´m Talking, 8/1 She´s Cool Too, 12/1 Frankie Valley, 16/1 Early Ambition.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Van Go Go deserves plenty of respect as a maiden winner dropped into selling company but could meet her match in SEA POET, who was fourth in a stronger-looking maiden at Bath.[Frank Carter]
Decimated field now of 6 runners means still 3 places on Betfair and surely Van Go Go can place under these circumstances?
SHORTLIST
3pm - FC Copenhagen v Silkeborg - 1.53 home - Silkeborg like 1-1 draws so 1-1 cover perhaps and faith again in Copenhagen who do not need to win but keep digging out wins and want to retain a 100% home record recently.
3pm - Norwich v Derby - 1.46 home - remember what Derby did to QPR recently . Could lightning strike twice? Over 1.5 goals looks a goer. 1.2 over 1.5 goals and already Norwich have been backed down to 1.4 which augurs well for City backers.
3pm - Southampton v Hartlepool - 1.31 home - motivation v season over and mid table safety. On motivation alone, Soton should be backable and add the form and this makes it doubly so. Always a 0-0 threat as per last head to heads but I hope not as we are meeting 2 quite different teams from when they last met.
235 FAIRYHOUSE - VOler La Vedette is 1.46 to place and has a great chance of doing so. Blackstairmountain is intriguing under Ruby Walsh for Willie Mullins at a tasty 2.18 to place
410 FAKENHAM - 4 horses and 2 places so simple 50/50 and Isle Of Inishmore is a generous 1.3 to place ( although this recounts a tight race)
210 FFOS LAS - Timesawastin has been battered into favouratism here into 1.25 and 1.1 to place.
430 FFOS LAS - Prince Massini is 1.21 to place in a 3 horse race for 2 places. He completes and he should have an excellent chance of not getting beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race.
440 PLUMPTON - Hi Ho Silva could have a good place chance here in a 50/50 race - illiquid place market at present.
420 REDCAR - Piave is 1.2 to place and bajan Flash, who has had a recent run, is 1.28 to place in an illiquid market. 4 under 20/1 give these horses a great chance of placing.
300 WARWICK - Van Go go looks to have a great chance of placing in a now 6 runner race for 3 places. But the market reflects that - he is 1.14
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - FC Copenhagen v Silkeborg - 1.53 home - 1.25 over 1.5 goals looks to have a great chance of success here.
3pm - Southampton v Hartlepool - 1.31 home - the only chink in Southampton's armour would seem to be the 0-0 head to head with Hartlepool at hartlepool.
210 FFOS LAS - with such a big swing in odds, Timesawastin at 1.25 to win should do the business.
430 FFOS LAS - 3 horse race and 2 places and a wonderful probability race with a clear round of jumping for Prince Massini at a perfectly acceptable 1.21.
420 REDCAR - although this is a maiden, there are 4 horses under 20/1 which makes this of great appeal. Bajan Flash perhaps as he has had the recent run would be the horse of interest.
300 WARWICK - one of the advantages of Betfair. Reduced runners but they still pay out 3 places and van Go Go should be strong.
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