HEAD TO HEADS – 1-1 Everton home draw, 0-0 Wolves home draw, 1-1 Everton home draw, and the Racing Post are going for goals are they? Hmmm! With Kevin Doyle and Stephen Hunt out, this could impact goals.
LEAGUE POSITION – 19th v 7th – a win takes Wolves 14th ( albeit without accounting for other scorelines)and their need is much greater than Everton’s who are safe from harm and unlikely to be grappling for a European spot.
HOME TEAM
WOLVES RECENT HOME FORM – LWWLWLWWD – only 3 losses in last 9 at home for Wolves. Unbeaten in last 3 home matches and want this to continue in the run in. 3 wins and a loss against the top 4, but interestingly losing 3-0 and 2-3 against 6th and 8th in the league ( Everton are 7th) Wolves have not win against 5th to 9th in the league.
WOLVES RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLLLWLDWDWL – inconsistent with a fair smattering of WLD’s in equal measure.
WOLVES GOAL TRENDS – Wolves have scored 2,4,3 in their last 3 home matches.Doyle contributed 3 goals. – Have conceded 4 and 3 in 2 of their last 3 matches. 67% over 2.5 goals at home. 3 of their last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals which could signal a change of tactics from McCarthy?
Ebanks-Blake and Fletcher the 2 key goalscorers for Wolves in Doyles’ absence.
WOLVES STREAKS – no defeat in 3 at home – have scored in all of their last 5 matches.
AWAY TEAM
EVERTON RECENT AWAY FORM – DWDLDLLW – 2 draws away against 17th and 18th ( score draws ) and 3 home draws against bottom 3. Everton struggle to beat strugglers?4 out of 5 score draws.
EVERTON RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDDLWLWWDWD – solidity about last 5 matches. Everton have only lost 3 matches since Jan 1st 2011 and all 3 were away matches!!
EVERTON GOAL TRENDS – 3 of the last 4 matches over 2.5 goals with the exception a 1-1 ( successful over 2.5 goal trade as both goals came within 35 minutes)Everton have scored 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches. Everton have only kept clean sheets in 2 of last 21 matches. 19 of last 20 matches are over 1.5 goals.Have only failed to score in 1 of last 11 matches. But failed to score in 33% of away matches.
EVERTON STREAKS – 3 away matches without a draw.5 matches overall without a defeat.
CONCLUSION – we are getting to that end of the season where teams will need points against teams who , hand on heart, gain nothing and lose nothing. Everton are in that limbo state , save from relegation but unlikely to threaten European places. Wolves need the win – simples! 3 draws in head to heads and maybe both teams to score could be the call here. 19 of Everton’s last 20 matches have finished over 1.5 goals. 6 of Wolves last 7 are over 1.5 goals. Everton have scored 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches and Wolves have scored 2,4,3 in their last 3 home matches. I would think about laying the team who score first in the hope of an equaliser?
HEAD TO HEADS – 2009 and 2010 head to heads see Copenhagen winning 3-0, 2-0 and 1-0 in home head to heads and losing 1-0 and winning 3-0 ( Nov 2010) away at Randers.
LEAGUE POSITION – Top v 8th – runaway leaders ( 19 point lead) might instill some complacency? A win takes Randers 5th so is worth playing for.
HOME TEAM
COPENHAGEN RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWWWWW ( since the return from the Winter Break , W – an impressive 3-1 win over Brondby)
COPENHAGEN RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWDWWWLWWD – dropped points all coming away from home ( POST WINTER BREAK FORM OF LWWD – LD coming away from home)
COPENHAGEN GOAL TRENDS – only 1 of last 4 matches has been over 2,5 goals.Last 6 home matches all over 2.5 goals scoring 5,3,4,2,3,3.
Have scored in all home matches and kept clean sheets in 50% of home matches.67% of home matches over 2.5 goals.Average 2.58 goals scored each home match.Have scored 2 or more in all home matches this season.
COPENHAGEN STREAKS – 8 match home winning streak – 8 without a draw – 12 at home without defeat – 3 without defeat since 12th March 2011.
AWAY TEAM
RANDERS RECENT AWAY FORM – DLLLDDWD – only 1 win away all season came against Esbjerg 2 matches ago. Have played 2 of the top 3 away and lost 1-0 and 2-1. – WD in post Winter Break
RANDERS RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLWDLDWWDD – last loss was 3-0 Copenhagen win at Randers. – WWDD in post Winter Break – unbeaten . Last 2 matches have been 0-0 scorelines.
RANDERS GOAL TRENDS – 33% over 2,5 goals away – have failed to score in 33% of away matches.last 2 matches 0-0’s Have kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 4 matches. Have failed to score in last 2 matches.
RANDERS STREAKS – no defeat in 4 matches away – no defeat in 5 in total.
CONCLUSION – how much importance to place on a return from a Winter Break. Only 4 matches played enough for us to gauge current form? Copenhagen should win easily and are scoring plenty at home but quite simply do not need to win. It is not a must for them with a 19 point lead in the league. Randers would like a win, but 2 0-0’s on the trot may not be the current form which will achieve this. 5,3,4,2,3,3 scored by Copenhagen in recent home matches may continue today.Randers have kept 3 clean sheets and conceded 1 in the 4th match since the return from the Winter Break/ Significant?Was against 10th, 11th, 6th and 5th. As recently as November 2010, Copenhagen won 3-0 at Randers. Given their home goalscoring exploits this should be replicated. BUT CONCERN RE COMPLACENCY FOR SUCH RUNAWAY LEADERS.
HEAD TO HEADS
LEAGUE POSITION 2nd against 6th – wins important for both sides. A win takes Siena top by 2 points and a win nestles Vicenza into likely play off places.
HOME TEAM
SIENA RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWLWDW – the loss was 2-3 against Piacenza and the only home loss all season.Have only played 3 of the top 6 at home. 1-0 win over Atalanta, 1-1 draw with 3rd placed Novarro and 2-1 win over Reggina. Unlikey to lose, but backable to win?
SIENA RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWDWDDLWWDDWWW – 5 wins in last 7 matches and the last 5 draws have all been 0-0’s. Perhaps cover 0-0 today if you fancy Siena?
SIENA GOAL TRENDS – score an average 2.05 at home per match – 65% over 2.5 goals at home.Scored 35, conceded only 10 at home in 17 matches.2 of the last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. 10 of the last 12 matches have seen Siena keep a clean sheet. They score , they win? Last 5 draws 0-0’s
SIENA STREAKS – not conceded in 3 home matches - no defeat in 7 matches overall
AWAY TEAM
VICENZA RECENT AWAY FORM – LLWLDLWWDLL – inconsistency away –recent away wins v 9th and 18th. Have lost all 5 of the matches they have played away to top 6 sides, conceding 2,3,1,3,2.
VICENZA RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLWDWLWDWLLW – again inconsistent but as recently as 4 matches ago beat 3rd placed 1-0 at home.
VICENZA GOAL TRENDS – 3 of the last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals. BUT only those 3 in the last 16 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Generally concede 2 or 3 away to top 6. 59% over 2.5 goals away. Have failed to score only once in last 6 matches.
VICENZA STREAKS – no win in 3 away, current losing streak of 2 away, no draw in 4 in total.
CONCLUSION – I do not know Seria B too well. Siena have scored 35 and conceded only 10 at home this season. Last 5 draws were 0-0’s so perhaps a cover of 0-0? Only 1 loss all season at home. 10 of last 12 matches have seen Siena keep a clean sheet! Superb. Perhaps 0-0, 2-0, 3-0 correct score speculative bets but Vicenza have failed to score only once in 6 matches? Vicenza have lost to all of the top 6 they have played away, conceding 2,3,1,3,2.
2 of Siena’s last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. 3 of Vicenza’s last 5 matches over 2.5 goals ( but 3 of last 16 only over 2.5 goals)
HEAD TO HEADS last 3 head to heads all 2-1 - 2-1 Birmingham home win, 2-1 Blackburn home win, 2-1 Birmingham home win. So today a 2-1 Blackburn home win? Well there has been a change of management lately and the new manager seems unable to cope.
LEAGUE POSITION – 14th v 15th, both on equal points ( 34), both equal goal difference ( -12)and Birmingham has a game in hand over Blackburn. This match is the proverbial 6 pointer.
HOME TEAM
BLACKBURN RECENT HOME FORM – WWWDLWWLDD – only 2 losses in last 10 a big surprise for me!! Against Bottom 7 ( of which they and Brum are a part) , at home, 2-0 Win over Villa, 2-2 Draw with Blackpool, 1-1 draw with West ham, 3-0 win over Wolves and 2-1 win over Wigan. Recent home losses 1-0 Spurs and 2-0 Stoke City.
BLACKBURN RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWLWLWLLDLLDD – no win in 7 edges them closer into the relegation mire.
BLACKBURN GOAL TRENDS – 3 of the last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Total goals in last 6 matches have been 7,0,5,5,4,0 – from one extreme to the other. Most recent 0-0 was away at Arsenal. Have kept clean sheets in a respectable 40% of home matches. 40% over 2.5 goals too. Concede a whopping 16 in the first quarter of an hour of the 2nd half.Have conceded 36 goals in the 2nd half.Lead at half time in only 29% of matches.
BLACKBURN STREAKS – no win in 3 at home and 7 overall – 2 draw sequence at home currently.4 of last 6 matches over 3.5 goals
AWAY TEAM
BRUM RECENT AWAY FORM – DDLWLWDL – highly inconsistent - only 2 wins away all season have come in last 5 away matches against Blackpool and West ham – hardly compelling. – DWWLL against bottom 5 teams away
BRUM RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLWDLDWWLLDLW -
BRUM GOAL TRENDS – 57% of away matches over 2.5 goals. 3 of last 4 have been over 2.5 goals, with the exception 1-1 v Everton. Have conceded in last 5 matches. Have scored in all of last 4 – hint for over 1.5 goals?
BRUM STREAKS – no win in 2 away.
CONCLUSION – this is 2 well matched teams ( if we look at the league table) and so is a difficult match to read. I was very surprised by the relative solidity of Blackburn at home, only 2 losses in last 10. A match I find difficult to get an angle into as this is the proverbial 6 pointer. 3 of the last 4 matches for both sides have been over 2.5 goals. That may be an angle in. Likely to be a rollercoaster this afternoon ( rollercoasters are good for traders)
As ever with Blackburn, look for potential fireworks in the 2nd half.
HEAD TO HEADS – last 6 head to heads have been either 2-1 or 3-1 – coincidence? 3-1 Bolton away win, 2-1 Bolton home win, 3-1 Bolton home win, 2-1 Bolton away win, 3-1 Bolton away win. 5/5 in the league and dominance from Bolton, but remember we are in 6 pointer part of the season.
LEAGUE POSITION – 8th v 18th – Bolton, like Everton, are in a state of limbo. Importantly, the Racing Post tells us that Bolton have an FA Cup Semi Final match to think of and this tends to play in the minds of players who do not want to get injured. It would seem, then, that West Ham are playing Bolton at just the right time.
HOME TEAM
BOLTON RECENT HOME FORM – WDWWDLWWW – only lost 1 of last 9 at home. Only losses at home have come against Chelsea and Liverpool.
BOLTON RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLDLLWLWDWLL – last 3 losses all came away from home.
BOLTON GOAL TRENDS – 60% of home matches over 2.5 goals. Great stat from Racing Post, that Bolton have scored one goal or none in 10 of their last 13 matches. 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals but seems to be an inconsistent general pattern. Bolton have scored in 6 of their last 7 matches. Score 25 goals in the last half hour and concede 14 in the last quarter of an hour.
BOLTON STREAKS – 3 match home winning streak – 4 at home without a draw -
AWAY TEAM
WEST HAM RECENT AWAY FORM – LDWLDWDD – good recent away form for the Hamsters. But 3 draws would rather have been 3 wins!
WEST HAM RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLDWLDWWDL – recent loss saw West Ham 2-0 up at halftime losing 4-2 when Man United visited. Have not beaten any of the top 9 away but couldn’t rule out a draw.
WEST HAM GOAL TRENDS – 8 of their last 10 matches has been over 2.5 goals. Against 6th, 7th, 9th and 10th, all matches over 2.5 goals ( remember Bolton are 9th) 2 clean sheets for West Ham in their last 3 matches. Have only failed to score in 1 of last 5 matches. Failed to score in 47% of away matches.
WEST HAM STREAKS – no defeat in 4 away matches.
CONCLUSION – a 6 pointer for West Ham, that’s for sure, but a match where Bolton may be distracted by next Sunday’s FA Cup Semi Final. Let’s face it, they are safe and unlikely to get a European Place ( although an FA Cup win would ensure a European place) Interesting that Bolton have won all head to heads either 2-1 or 3-1. Over 2.5 goals perhaps here? Over 1.5 goals safer purely based on West Ham’s need being greater.
HEAD TO HEADS – Celtic have won the last 5 head to heads, most recently 1-0 and a 92nd minute winner. Prior to that match, Celtic scored 3,4,4 so which Celtic turns up today?At home, celtic have won 3-1 and 4-0.
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 11th of 12.Celtic really have the advantage now with 2 points more than Rangers. It is quite simply must win time from hereon in for both Old Firm.
HOME TEAM
CELTIC RECENT HOME FORM – DDDWWWWWWW – just timing it right with the wins. Have already beaten St Mirren at home.
CELTIC RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWWWWLWW – loss away to Motherwell.
CELTIC GOAL TRENDS – scored in every home match this season. 62% over 2.5 goals – 56% of home matches have seen clean sheets. 5 of the last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals ( the other 2 were 2-0 matches) Celtic have scored 4,3,2,3 in their last 4 home matches which ties in with their odds today. Celtic have only failed to score in 2 of 29 matches this season.
CELTIC STREAKS – winning streak of 7 at home , no defeat in 11 at home, no draw in 9 overall.
AWAY TEAM
ST MIRREN RECENT AWAY FORM – DWLDLWLL – inconsistent away form. Against the top 3 away, St Mirren have lost 4-0 to Celtic and 3-2 to Hearts.
ST MIRREN RECENT FORM OVERALL – DDLDLWLLLWW – 2 recent spirited wins came at home against bottom and 3rd from bottom. St Mirren are 2nd bottom.
ST MIRREN GOAL TRENDS – last 3 matches have been over 2.5 goals.St Mirren have failed to score in 50% of away matches. Have conceded in all of the last 5 matches.
ST MIRREN STREAKS – no draw in 4 matches – no draw in 7 overall.
CONCLUSION – 1.16 Celtic at home and we should expect a 3 or 4 goal victory replicating last time. 56% clean sheets at home and St Mirren have not scored in 50% of away matches. Must win for Celtic. Chance the over 2.5, over 3.5 goals?
HEAD TO HEADS 2-1 Chelsea home win, 3-1 wigan home win, 8-0 Chelsea home win, 0-6 Chelsea away win.
LEAGUE POSITION – 4th v 20th – Chelsea can threaten 2nd with a win but would need to keep winning and United keep losing to get the Title.A win for Wigan takes them out of the bottom 3 albeit dependent on other results.
HOME TEAM
CHELSEA RECENT HOME FORM – WLDWDWLWW – back on track with 3 wins in their last 4 at home beating Man Utd and Man City.
CHELSEA RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLWWWLDWWWD – 2 losses in last 11 matches.
CHELSEA GOAL TRENDS – 36% over 2.5 goals at home.Kept clean sheets in 64% of home matches.Score an average of 2 goals at home this season. Score a massive 16 goals in the last quarter of an hour.
CHELSEA STREAKS – winning run of 2 at home, no draw in 4 matches at home.
AWAY TEAM
WIGAN RECENT AWAY FORM – DWDLDDL – only 2 wins away all season came against Spurs and Wolves.Have lost all away matches against top 3 – last 3 away draws have been score draws.
WIGAN RECENT FORM OVERALL – DDLLDWDLLWD – threatening but then throw in a run of losses.
WIGAN GOAL TRENDS – 43% over 2.5 goals away. Have only kept 2 clean sheets in last 15, includes against Spurs but remember Spurs had the Champions League.Wigan have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 matches, interestingly failing to score against City and United.
WIGAN STREAKS – 5 matches away from home without a win.2 wins only in last 13 matches have come away from home.
CONCLUSION – We expect a Chelsea win. But recently Wigan performed superbly against Man City away and a goalkeeping error was what separated . Remember what I have been saying about silly season. Top v Bottom can bring surprises at this time of year. Interesting Stats? – 36% over 2.5 goals Chelsea at home is a surprise. Clean Sheets in 64% of home matches.
Only 2 wins away for Wigan all season. Wigan have failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches. Expectation perhaps for a 2-0 Chelsea win ?
HEAD TO HEADS – 3 of the last 5 league head to heads have been at Craven Cottage. 3-0 man Utd home win, 2-0 Fulham home win, 3-0 Fulham home win, 3-0 United home win, 2-2 Fulham home draw ( United scored first)
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 10th –Fulham are safe now and will not, it seems, be threatening for any European places. Man Utd are 7 points ahead of Arsenal having played a game in hand.
HOME TEAM
MAN UTD RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWWWWWWWW – 14 wins and 1 draw at home all season contrasts markedly with away form. – have scored 2 or 3 against teams around Fulham’s position in the league.
MAN UTD RECENT FORM OVERALL – DWWWLWWLLWW – the faltering has been occurring away from home.
MAN UTD GOAL TRENDS – have scored in all home matches this season – clean sheets in 53% of those home matches – 2.66 goals scored on average at home – 9 of last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Last home win was only a 1-0 v Bolton with an 88th minute Berba goal.
United have only failed to score in 2 matches all season, both away from home and both 0-0.
United have conceded in 7 of the last 9 matches. Scored a massive 31 goals in the last half hour this season.
MAN UTD STREAKS – 11 match home winning streak – 15 home without defeat – 10 matches overall without a draw.
AWAY TEAM
FULHAM RECENT AWAY FORM – LDLWLDLDDL – only 1 win in 9 away was against Stoke. Against top 7 away, they have not won, but some scorelines have been tight, 2-1 loss Arsenal, 1-1 draw City, 1-0 Loss Chelsea, 1-0 loss Spurs, 1-0 Loss Liverpool , 2-1 loss Everton. Yes they are losing but on occasion only a solitary goal.
FULHAM RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWDWLWDDDWLW – only 2 losses in last 11 matches and Fulham are becoming difficult to beat.
FULHAM GOAL TRENDS – 33% over 2.5 goals away - have failed to score in 33% of away matches – Last 3 matches have been over 2.5 goals. – have only kept one clean sheet in the last 4 matches – have only failed to score once in last 7 matches.
Only scored 13 goals away but only conceded 17 goals away and that’s in 15 matches.
FULHAM STREAKS – 6 away matches without a win - only one win away all season – no draw in 3.
CONCLUSION – I would expect a tight match this afternoon with a Fulham side who like to keep it tight away from home and who have 3 1-0 defeats against top 6 opposition away. The last time these 2 met this season was 22nd August. Personnel has changed, Fulham have a new manager,so this head to head is not as relevant as it could be. Fulham are safe from the relegation dog fight I would suspect, but Sparky will want 3 more points soon just to put that to bed.
Likely we could get some mileage out of an under 2.5 ( under 3.5 goal safer) bet? This is a match I think where I would want to watch to gauge any potential dominance from United. The ideal is that United will score 2 and win 2-1 or 2-0 but Fulham are stubborn beggars.
HEAD TO HEADS – 3-0 West Brom home win and 1-0 Wet Brom home win.
LEAGUE POSITION – 12th v 13th – and you know what? I think this could be classed as another 6 pointer as Sunderland are on 38 points , only 7 points from bottom , and West Brom are on 36 points, only 5 points from bottom. So do not be fooled by 12th and 13th places as being any realistic sign of teams’ ability
HOME TEAM
SUNDERLAND RECENT HOME FORM – WWLWDLLL – gone all wrong for the Black Cats but to be fair they have just played 4th, 5th and 6th at home. Sunderland have a reasonable home record against bottom 7 – 3-0 win over Blackburn, 2-2 draw Brum, 1-0 win Villa, 0-2 loss Blackpool, 1-0 win West Ham but we have to distinguish between pre Bent and post Bent matches.
SUNDERLAND RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWDWLLLLDLL – the sudden deluge of L’s coming on 1st feb and coinciding with Darren Bent’s absence? 3 home losses and 3 away losses.
SUNDERLAND GOAL TRENDS – 5 of last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals. 2 of the 3 remaining matches were 2-0’s and conceivably successful over 2.5 goal trends. Only 33% of home matches over 2.5 goals.Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in only 1 of their last 10 matches. Sunderland have failed to score in their last 4 matches( but they were playing top 7 sides)
SUNDERLAND STREAKS – no win in 4 at home, current losing streak of 3 at home, have not won in 7 matches overall.Have not scored a goal in 4 matches.
AWAY TEAM
WEST BROM RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLLLDW – draw and win against Stoke and Brum
WEST BROM RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWLDLDDDWDW – great recent form and they are having a go. Is this the influence of a certain Woy? Last 5 draws have been score draws.
WEST BROM GOAL TRENDS – 67% of away matches over 2.5 goals. 14 of the last 18 matches have been over 2.5 goals. The 4 exceptions? 2-0 Bolton home win but 86th minute 2nd goal precludes a successful over 2.5 goals trade. 2-0 loss to Blackburn and a successful over 2.5 goal trade. 2 recent 1-1’s saw 2 goals scored in 87th and 90th minutes.
Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals.West Brom have only kept a clean sheet in one match this season – a real standout stat. 15 of 16 home matches over 1.5 goals. 26 of last 27 matches over 1.5 goals.
6,2,2,4,4,3 goals total in last 6 matches.
WEST BROM STREAKS – 6 home matches without defeat. 5 score draws in last 8 matches.
CONCLUSION – and the 6 pointers keep on coming with 2 teams desparate for around 6 points to ensure survival. West Brom have won the last 2 head to heads. 6 losses and a draw in their last 7 matches for Sunderland makes them logically opposable but there is nothing logical about this part of the season. Sunderland have failed to score in their last 4 matches ( but were against top 7 sides) Great stat from Racing Post. Sunderland have let in 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
HEAD TO HEADS 3-1 Spurs home win, 1-0 Stoke away win, 1-2 Spurs away win, 1-2 Spurs away win.
LEAGUE POSITION – 5th v 11th in the league. -4th place is within grasp for Spurs. 38 points – are Stoke safe? I think so. Stoke are another side who may have a focus on next Sunday’s FA Cup Final
HOME TEAM -
SPURS - RECENT HOME FORM – DWWDWWDWD – no defeat in 12 at home for the Spuds.Only loss at home was against Wigan.
SPURS - RECENT FORM OVERALL – DDWWWLDDWWWLDDD – have lost only 2 of last 19 matches.
SPURS - GOAL TRENDS – 2 0-0’s on the trot but prior to that, 4 over 2.5 goals matches. 36% over 2.5 goals at home. Opponents score first in 50% of matches.
SPURS – STREAKS – 12 home matches without defeat. 3 draws on the trot.4 matches without a win.
AWAY TEAM
STOKE RECENT AWAY FORM – DWLLLLLL – standout poor away form for Stoke here and not helped today by the fact this is a match prior to a very important FA Cup Semi Final. Have lost away to all of the top 8 sides. Only 1 draw away in 15 matches.
STOKE RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWLLWLLDLWD – inconsistent recent form and Stoke just need 3 or 6 points
STOKE GOAL TRENDS – 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Only 1 clean sheet in last 9 matches.Have failed to score in 5 of last 9 matches. Have failed to score in last 5 matches away.
STOKE STREAKS – 7 away matches without a draw. 6 match current losing streak away.6 away matches without a win.Have not scored in last 5 away matches.
CONCLUSION – again we have a team who have one eye on the FA Cup semi Final next week. What impact will this have? Stoke have not scored in 5 away matches and lost to all of top 8 away from home. 12 home matches at home for Spurs. You get the feeling that Stoke are layable here in the hope that the FA Cup next weekend is a good distraction to benefit Spurs.
HEAD TO HEADS –5-2 Real Madrid away win, 1-0 Bilbao home win, Real 5-1 home win, Real 5-1 home win.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 2nd - 9 points behind 4th place – Real Madrid, I am sure, a realistically out of the title race but are , more importantly, in the Champions League which is why Mourinho was employed.
HOME TEAM
BILBAO RECENT HOME FORM –WLWWWLWL – no draw in 15 matches at home.Recent losses at home against 3rd and 4th.
BILBAO RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWWLLLLWDLW – a bit ropey of late – 6 losses in last 8 matches.
BILBAO GOAL TRENDS – 73% of home matches over 2.5 goals.47% of home matches over 2.5 goals. 5 of the 6 matches against the top 3 sides home and away have all been losses and all over 2.5 goals matches. 5 of the last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches. Blibao have failed to score in only 3 matches out of 30 all season.
BILBAO STREAKS – 15 home matches without a draw.
AWAY TEAM
REAL MADRID RECENT AWAY FORM – WWLWWDLWDWW – 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats away from home for Real. Real have only played Barca of the top 6 away.
REAL MADRID RECENT FORM OVERALL – DWLWWWDWWWWL – loss was famous ending of Mourinho 9 year home unbeaten streak and coincided with Champions League match.
REAL MADRID GOAL TRENDS – 53% away over 2.5 goals. – only 3 of the last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Only 2 of last 9 matches have Real failed to score. Have scored 33 and conceded 7 in first half all season. Scored 36 goals and conceded 15 in 2nd half.
REAL MADRID STREAKS – no defeat in 4 - won 3 of last 4 away.
CONCLUSIONS – Real Madrid still reeling from losing at home. The title is out of grasp I would say and focus must be on Champions League. Huge over 2.5 goals trend for Bilboa, and also Bilbao have lost home and away in 7 of the 8 matches they have played against top 4 sides. Important consideration? In 6 of those 7 matches, Blibao scored . No draw in 15 for Bilbao another big stat. Blibao have scored in 27 of 30 matches this season – another whopping stat. Missing Ronaldo?
Over 2.5 goals ( 1.5 goals safer?)
HEAD TO HEADS – 2-2 Chievo home draw , 1-0 Inter away win, 4-3 Inter home win, 2-1 Chievo home win. 4 over 2.5 goals matches in last 5 head to heads. Inconclusive head to heads may signal a neutral goals bet.
LEAGUE POSITION – 3rd v 13th - 5 points separate Inter Milan from the leaders.
HOME TEAM
INTER RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWWWWWW – can’t get better than that!
INTER RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWLWWWWDWL – dropped points have all been away from home.
INTER GOAL TRENDS – 60% over 2.5 goals at home. – score an average 2.53 per match at home. Only 2 of last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Scored 29 goals in last half hour of matches.Eto’o key to home form. Be careful – A look at 3 of Inter’s last 4 matches in all competitions may point to a defensive crisis as the scorelines have been 2-3 v Bayern , an anomalous 1-0 home win over Lecce, a 3-0 loss to AC Milan, and a 2-5 humbling by lowly Schalke. But can Chievo exploit this frailty, and might that hint at a neutral goals bet?
INTER STREAKS – 9 match home winning streak, 10 without a draw.
AWAY TEAM
CHIEVO RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLDWDLLW – inconsistent away and that inconsistency is shown with 3-1 loss away to AC Milan and 3-1 win over 2nd placed Napoli.
CHIEVO RECENT FORM OVERALL – LDDDWWDLLLDLWD – more inconsistencies
CHIEVO GOAL TRENDS – 53% overs away from home.Only 1 of last 5 matches has been over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 4 of last 5 matches which might be what a vulnerable Inter want to see.2 0-0’s and 2 1-0’s in 4 of Chievo’s last 5 matches.
Have only scored 8 goals in the first half all season, conceding 22 goals.
CHIEVO STREAKS – no draw in 3 aways.
CONCLUSION – Inter have shown some defensive frailties in their last 4 matches overall which is a concern. But Chievo have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches. Thorough inconsistencies about Chievo perhaps hints at a neutral goals trade here? But then only 2 of the last 6 Inter matches have been over 2.5 goals in the league.
A potentially messy football match that should be put lower down on the list today I feel as there must be more clearcut candidates today.
HEAD TO HEADS – only one -2-4 away win for Bordeaux – saw Arles score first and go down to 10 men quickly, so this is not a “ clean result”. What would the score have been in an 11 v 11 match?
LEAGUE POSITION – 8th v 20th – Arles are down, simple as that. 12 points only and cannot get back. Next best is on 28 points. The problem is that Bordeaux are in that limbo land where they really won’t gain by winning or lose anything by losing.
HOME TEAM
BORDEAUX RECENT HOME FORM –DWDDDWLWL – stark contrast to last year where I believe they went unbeaten at home all season.5 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats at home.11th, 13th, 14th and 18th were the defeats at home.Against bottom 3 at home, have played Monaco ( 1-0 loss) and Lens ( 2-2 draw) but Arles look to be a level lower still.
BORDEAUX RECENT FORM OVERALL – DDDDDLWDLLWWLDD – unable to string together a winning run – far too many draws -
BORDEAUX GOAL TRENDS – 36% of home matches over 2.5 goals. – have kept clean sheets in 36% of home matches – 2 of last 3 matches under 2.5 goals.Bordeaux have lost 2 of their last 3 at home.
Have only scored 11 goals in the first half all season.
BORDEAUX STREAKS – 4 without a draw at home.
AWAY TEAM
ARLES - RECENT AWAY FORM – LDLDLLLLDLL – no wins away this season.
ARLES - RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLLDLLLDDDLDLL – only 1 win all season for Arles was at home. Have lost all of the 9 away matches against top 11 sides.Have only scored 8 in the first half and 8 in the second half all season.Conceded 34 goals in the 2nd half, a massive 18 goals in the first quarter of an hour of the 2nd half.
ARLES - GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs away. Concede an average 2.21 goals per match away.Only 2 of the last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals.Have only kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches this season.Have conceded 5,3,2,2 in last 4 matches. Have failed to score in 71% of away matches.
ARLES – STREAKS – 14 away without a win,17 in total
CONCLUSION – could be a dangerous match with a Bordeaux team with nothing really to play for. Note that only 2 of Arles’s last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals. They are likely to lose this match given the away record and are down so may throw caution to the wind? Goals bet might cover any potential shocks.
HEAD TO HEADS – 2-0 Barca away win, 1-0 Barcelona home win, 2-2 Almeria home draw, 8-0 Barcelona away win. Last 2 head to heads were Cup matches which saw Barca score 5 and 3.
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 20th and yes, it seems we are attracting TOP V BOTTOM. Barca are 8 points ahead of Real at the top while Almeria are on 26 points with next best at 29 points.
HOME TEAM
BARCA RECENT HOME FORM – 12 match winning streak at home . 13 wins , 1 draw and 1 loss at home.Against the bottom 4 sides at home, Barca beat Zaragoza 1-0, lost 2-0 famously to Hercules, and 4-1 win against Malaga.
BARCA RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWWWWDWWWWDWW – no defeat in 28 matches.
BARCA GOAL TRENDS – 73% of home matches over 2.5 goals. – 47% clean sheets at home – average 2.6 goals at home – interestingly only 1 of Barca’s last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals.3 matches have been 1-0’s , one a 1-1 and the other a 2-1 win.
Barca have scored in 29 of 30 matches .Barca have not conceded in the first 15 minutes all season. Barca have conceded only 6 in the first half and 9 in the 2nd half all season.
BARCA STREAKS – 12 match winning streak – 28 matches in total without defeat.Barca score first in 90% of matches and lead at half time in 2/3rds of matches.
AWAY TEAM
ALMERIA RECENT AWAY FORM – LLWLLLLLWL – wins away against Hercules and Surprisingly Sevilla.Have not played Barca or Real away this season but lost 2-1, 2-0 and 1-0 v 3rd, 4th, 5th.
ALMERIA RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLWLDLDWDLL – inconsistent . Last 10 draws have been score draws.
ALMERIA GOAL TRENDS – 33% of away matches over 2.5 goals.3 of the last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 25 matches.Have scored in 7 of last 9 matches.
ALMERIA STREAKS – no draw in 10 away matches.Have scored 9 goals in the first 15 minutes so enhanced traders take note if Almeria strike first, they are likely to strike in the first quarter of an hour.
CONCLUSION – solid display when Real Madrid visited for Almeria might not be translated at the Nou Camp. This is NOT a must win for Barca but is for Almeria. 1.11 for Barca suggests we enhance with Halftime/Fulltime and goals bets . In an ideal world 1.11 suggests over 3.5 goals, over 4.5 goals to trade. How much of a factor is this TOP v BOTTOM ?
There is more than a suspicion that Cue Card was not at his peak at Cheltenham last month but it is nevertheless hard to ignore that both SPIRIT SON (who finished ahead of him) and Recession Proof (who was just behind) looked stronger candidates for this race on that evidence. Rock On Ruby sets the standard on 2m4f form and Sam Winner seemingly found 2m1f far too short in the Triumph. A fascinating showdown between some of the very best British novices.[Richard Austen]
As I write, it is a case of 4 horses under 14/1 and 5 under 33/1 battling out for the 3 places. Default to the current fav in a good probability race?( Spirit Son/Cue Card current 3/1 favs)
215 AINTREE
FINIAN´S RAINBOW looks solid on his fine Arkle second. Ghizao would have finished much closer that day but for blundering and is a big threat on his earlier defeats of the Arkle winner Captain Chris, while Starluck will need to jump more fluently if he is to hold his own in this higher grade. [Frank Carter]
4 under 40/1 should fight it out for the 2 places only on offer and finians Rainbow is 4/5 and solid at the head of the market.
250 AINTREE
Binocular, denied the chance to retain his Champion Hurdle crown by a mix up with medication, should be fresher than his main rivals but he has a point to prove up in trip, albeit in a race which is not guaranteed to be run at a true pace. He clearly has the ability when on his game but he was lacklustre at Sandown last time and could have trouble matching the new kids on the block PEDDLERS CROSS and Oscar Whisky, both of whom are proven stayers and remain open to improvement. [Frank Carter]
The superb racing continues and the top 3 should dominate. Peddlars cross is rock solid it would seem. Binocular was meant to run in the Champion hurdle but is up in trip.
125 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tullyraine, 7/4 Areuwitmenow, 6/1 Farewell Bluebell, 14/1 Cocacobana, 14/1 Sous Mix, 20/1Amroth Bay, 25/1 Sunny Ledgend, 33/1 Native Art, 66/1 Go To The Edge, 66/1 Northorsouth.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This can concern TULLYRAINE and Areuwitmenow, with marginal preference for the first-named and Thursday's Aintree hero Willie Twiston-Davies, whose claim cancels out the penalty.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
9 runners and 3 places and trust the top 2 to dominate?
505 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 30/100 Advertisement, 3/1 Son Of The Cat.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Son Of The Cat having failed to fire last year, this should be a straightforward opening for the progressive ADVERTISEMENT. Jeremy Noseda's charge has won a couple of handicaps this year already and his proven form at the trip is another bonus.[Paul Smith]
Advertisement is the favourite here -straight 50/50
255 TRAMORE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Fever Pitch, 5/1 Coin River, 6/1 Born To Excel, 7/1 Raggletagglegypsy, 12/1 Skiboski, 14/1Katesgem, 14/1 Sustainable Legacy, 14/1 Wither Hills, 25/1 Boxwood Boy, 25/1 Dontmentionthewar, 25/1 Guccis Oscar, 25/1Porthaw, 33/1 Grand Fisher, 33/1 Shady Pines, 66/1 Tarry Not.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Poor fare. FEVER PITCH looks the one if he can handle the ground and has been afforded what looks another great opportunity to win a maiden. [Johnny Ward]
4/6 - - -6/1 price gapper. Good ground and maiden hurdles a slight niggle.
SHORTLIST
1245pm - Wolves v Everton - 2.6 home -1.37 over 1.5 goals is interesting here if based on Everton scoring 2 or in 4 of last 5 matches and Wolves scoring 2.4.3 in last 3 home matches.
2pm - Siena v Vicenza - 1.62 home - I repeat my conclusion here "
I do not know Seria B too well. Siena have scored 35 and conceded only 10 at home this season. Last 5 draws were 0-0’s so perhaps a cover of 0-0? Only 1 loss all season at home. 10 of last 12 matches have seen Siena keep a clean sheet! Superb. Perhaps 0-0, 2-0, 3-0 correct score speculative bets but Vicenza have failed to score only once in 6 matches? Vicenza have lost to all of the top 6 they have played away, conceding 2,3,1,3,2.
2 of Siena’s last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. 3 of Vicenza’s last 5 matches over 2.5 goals ( but 3 of last 16 only over 2.5 goals)"
Siena keeping a clean sheet in 10 of their last 12 matches is a huge stat. Back 1.62 and 0-0 cover perhaps? Only at 10 and an illiquid market
3pm - Bolton v West Ham - 2.3 home - Bolton have won 2-1 or 3-1 in head to heads. 8 of West Ham's last10 matches have been over 2.5 goals. 1.29 over 1.5 goals is a good price here. Bolton may have one eye on the FA Cup next week.2 of last 3 Bolton matches over 2.5 goals.
3pm - Celtic v St Mirren - 1.16 home - straight back in the match odds hoping Celtic replicate the 3 and 4 they scored in last 2 home head to heads and not the 92nd minute 1-0 winner of last time.
3pm - Chelsea v Wigan - 1.25 home - Wigan have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches - a key stat? Slight concern with superb fighting attitude away to Man City. suspect a strong Chelsea defense could stifle Wigan . 1-0, 2-0 win for Chelsea? But this is top v bottom silly season archetypal match!
3pm - Tottenham v Stoke - 1.76 home - recipe for chancing Spurs today as Stoke have not scored in last 5 away matches and They have one eye on the FA Cup Semi next weekend. Trust Spurs at 1.76 though? May be tradeable.
6pm - Bordeaux v Arles - 1.28 home - 2 teams with nothing to play for so perhaps an ideal time to go for goals here? 1.28 over 1.5 goals. looks a great price here.
7pm - Barcelona v Almeria - 1.11 home - there's top v bottom and then there's top v bottom!! Interesting that only one of Barca's last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals, but they have done the business when priced 1.11 previously this season at home, generally winning at halftime - 1.35 is appealing. 1.32 over 2.5 goals should come in for a typical 1.11 shot at home.
215 AINTREE - we will be getting good place only odds on Finians Rainbow because there are 2 places - 1.36 to place.
250 AINTREE - Peddlers Cross looks solid at 1.25 to place currently in an 8 runner race for 3 places -5 horses only under 33/1 should fight out the 3 places. Clear round expected of course.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
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250 AINTREE - Peddlers Cross - I cannot find fault. 1,25 to place. Niggles? Competitive race .
7pm - Barcelona v Almeria - 1.11 home - 1.35 half time - barca have led at half time in last 6 home matches.
6pm - Bordeaux v Arles - 1.28 home - 1.26 over 1.5 goals looks a great price here. Concern that this is a dead rubber but by the same token, could lead to an open match.
3pm - Tottenham v Stoke - 1.76 home - laying Stoke at 5.5 is around a 1.2 back bet
3pm - Celtic v St Mirren - 1.16 home - must must win for the Bhoys and 1.16 indicates they should replicate the 3 and 4 they scored at home in last 2 head to heads.
2pm - Siena V Vicenza - 1.62 match odds and 0-0 correct score insurance of interest here.
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