Friday 15 April 2011

15/4

800 Dundalk sees Mudalalah looking strong for a place here under Pat Smullen with 4 under 20/1 currently. I would need to look at the market nearer the time of course.
145 AYR - Tonic Melysse is worth risking in the win only market as this is a hurdle and this is Walsh/Nicholls. From class 1 to class 3, he should win well.

*****145 AYR - TONIC MELYSSE TO WIN ONLY - 1.19 available currently***** A clear round should suffice for Ruby and Paul Nicholls.





Tough as nails placed as expected


FRIDAY IN PLAY
730pm - Anderlecht v Genk
Fri04/03/11PRLAnderlecht1 - 1GenkView eventsMore info
Sun31/10/10PRLGenk1 - 2AnderlechtView eventsMore info
Sun14/03/10PRLAnderlecht2 - 0GenkView eventsMore info
Sun08/11/09PRLGenk0 - 2AnderlechtView eventsMore info
Sat16/05/09PRLGenk0 - 2AnderlechtView eventsMore info
Fri19/12/08PRLAnderlecht2 - 0GenkView eventsMore info
Sun02/03/08PRLAnderlecht1 - 0Genk


LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 2nd -Anderlecht's one point is what separates these 2 in what is likely to be a ding dong battle for the title between these 2. Closely matches goals differences make these 2 teams who are closely matched as I suppose the 1-1 last time out in head to heads will attest to.


HOME TEAM

ANDERLECHT RECENT HOME FORM - WWWDWDWWWWDW - solid home form. No defeats at home this season.Interestingly against top 5 at home, 3 draws and a 3-2 win translates as TIGHT matches and this is likely to continue today against 2nd placed.
ANDERLECHT RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWWWWDWWWWDWWLDDW - been a bit ropey of late. A look at Anderlecht's last 3 home matches , for instance, sees them win 1-0 with a 90th minute winner, draw 1-1 with a 90th minute equaliser, win 3-2 after going 1-0 and 2-1 down with an 84th minute winner. We can view this as either luck or a never say die attitude. Anderlecht are undefeated home and away against the top 5 home and away.

ANDERLECHT GOAL TRENDS - 53% home matches over 2.5 goals so could go either way.Only 1 over 2.5 goals match in last 9 - again that word " tight".Anderlecht have conceded only 7 goals in the first half all season, and scored 18. Have scored 39 and cocneded only 7 goals at home this term which makes the opponents immediately opposable? Score first in 60% of matches.

ANDERLECHT STREAKS - 15 at home without defeat. After clean sheets in 8 consecutive matches, Anderlecht have conceded in last 4 matches. Only 1 win in last 4 matches.

AWAY TEAM

GENK RECENT AWAY FORM - DWWDDWWDW - solid away form from Genk. Could be we're heading for a draw today? Against top 8 away, it's 5 draws and 2 wins. Which team will capitulate their unbeaten records against top 5 sides home and away respectively.

GENK RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWWDWWWDLW - again , like Anderlecht, faltering in their most recent matches. 1-1 draw with Anderlecht at home only 4th March and another league one so soon? I am confused.

GENK GOAL TRENDS - last 8 matches under 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in only 2 matches all season. 40% under 2.5 goals away from home. Against top 7 away from home it's 1-1 draw, 0-4 win, 2-2, 2-2, 0-2 win, 2-2, 1-1. Genk score first in 70% of their matches( Anderlecht 60%)

GENK STREAKS - 9 away matches without defeat.

- This is an extremely well matched game. One has a formidable home record, the other is unbeaten in 9 matches away. This could replicate the most recent 1-1 home draw? There, Anderlecht required a 90th minute equaliser.

730pm - Mainz v Mgladbach - 2 home

HEAD TO HEADS

20.11.2010D1Mönchengladbach2-3Mainz
07.02.2010D1Mainz1-0Mönchengladbach
28.08.2009D1Mönchengladbach2-0Mainz

Mainz have won the latest 2010 head to heads. 2 very tight matches .


LEAGUE POSITION - 5th 4 18th - 2.02 home - a slight possibility that Mainz can threaten higher league positions. Importantly though a win for Mgladbach takes them to 3rd from bottom instead of bottom and gives some glimmer of hope.

HOME TEAM

MAINZ RECENT HOME FORM - LLWLLDLLD - pretty dire home form must give Mgladbach some way in?Have only played 2 of the bottom 4 at home, winning 2-0 against Stuttgart, and losing 1-0 to Wolfsburg
MAINZ RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWDLLWWLDDL - not that good recently either and a surprise they are still 5th. Only 3 draws all season and they were all 1-1's.

MAINZ GOAL TRENDS - only 29% of home matches over 2.5 goals. Last 4 matches all under 2.5 goals. Conceded in all of last 15 matches. Have only failed to score in 2 of last 8 matches. Opponent scores first in 62% of matches.
MAINZ STREAKS - - no win in 6 at home and 4 overall.

AWAY TEAM

MGLADBACH RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWWLLDL - wins against 6th and 14th , both 1-0's. Against top 6 away, have only played 4 , 4-1 loss to Dortmund, 3-6 win over Leverkusen, 1-0 defeat by Bayern, 1-0 win over Nurnberg - Jekyll and Hyde as far as goals is concerned.

MGLADBACH

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLWLLWLWDLLW - totally inconsistent but only 1 draw in last 17 matches. Only 2 draws away all season might hint at laying the draw here ( the need for points should produce a do or die attitude?)

MGLADBACH

GOAL TRENDS - in total contrast to Mainz, 71% of away matches over 2.5 goals ( 29% home matches for Mainz!) Only 1 in last 4 under 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all of last 9. - only 2 matches in last 13 have Mgladbach failed to score

MGLADBACH

STREAKS - 4 away without a win.

CONCLUSION - I do not like conflicting stats - 29% of Mainz's home matches under 2.5 goals and 71% of Mgladbach's away matches over 2.5 goals. Which will give? Further, Mgladbach's performances against top 4 are split between goal laden matches and then 2 1-0's. Difficult match to get an angle into.



HEAD TO HEADS


goals in these matches generally and fairly split in 2009 and 2010

LEAGUE POSITION - 13th v 8th - both teams seem to have little to play for. The bottom 2 are so far adrift and 3rd from bottom looks remote for Heerenveen.

HOME TEAM

HEERENVEEN RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLDLLL - 4 losses in the last 5 - one shock win over Twente . Against top 8 teams, 6-2 win over Twente, 1-3 loss to PSV, 0-0 draw ADO, 0-2 loss to AZ, 1-4 loss to Groningen, 2-2 draw with Roda. The Twente match looks well out of place.
HEERENVEEN RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDWLLLDLLD - no win in 7 matches overall.

HEERENVEEN GOAL TRENDS - 67% over 2.5 goals home and away - consistently overs in 2/3rd of matches. Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals.Conceded a massive 19 goals in the last quarter of an hour.
HEERENVEEN STREAKS - no win in 5 at home,. Current losing streak of 3 at home. No win in 7 overall. Have conceded in all of last 7 matches.

AWAY TEAM

UTRECHT RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLWDDDL - only 1 win in last 9 matches. Unbeaten against bottom 6 away from home. 2 wins and 2 draws - 3/4 matches over 2.5 goals against bottom 6.

UTRECHT RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDDDDDWLLL - far too many draws and not enough wins.Against bottom 6 though, Utrecht are unbeaten.

UTRECHT GOAL TRENDS - 53% of away matches over 2.5 goal. Only 3 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals. Only 1 clean sheet in last 9 matches. Only failed to score in 3 of last 18 matches BUT failed to score in 2 of last 3 matches, albeit one was against PSV.

UTRECHT STREAKS - no win in 4 away matches.


CONCLUSION - is this a deadrubber? I have warned you about these in recent weeks. Nothing really to play for. Excelsior 26 points 3rd from bottom and Heerenveen on 36 points suggests they are safe. Utrecht, I feel , should not get beaten here. Their record against bottom sides is unbeaten


145 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Tonic Mellysse, 6/1 Mason Hindmarsh, 10/1 Miereveld, 14/1 Sir Walter Raleigh, 250/1 Sixties Rock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It'll be a big disappointment if French bumper and hurdle winner TONIC MELLYSSE, who shaped well in a much stronger race than this on his first run for Paul Nicholls, gets beaten in this company. [Richard Young]

Obvious opportunity here - 1.09 to place and 1.19 to win for this Nicholls/Walsh combo horse. A clear round as ever and a plus is the fact this is a hurdle not a chase race.

710 BRIGHTON

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Bahia Emerald, 5/2 Bakoura, 5/2 Freckenham, 13/2 Silent Fright, 7/1 Mixed Emotions, 40/1 Add Lib, 66/1 Exceedingthestars, 66/1 Lady Freda.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bakoura is the form pick but FRECKENHAM has course experience and is narrowly preferred, though newcomer Bahia Emerald and costly purchase Silent Fright are other potential flies in the ointment.[Paul Johnson]

Only 5 under 66/1 and 3 places.

620 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Midnight Diamond, 5/1 You Can Of Course, 6/1 Ballyman, 8/1 Ethiopia, 10/1 Bobby Donald, 10/1Kiltimoney, 12/1 Zimbabwe, 20/1 Casual Garcia.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MIDNIGHT DIAMOND, currently rated 23lb higher over hurdles, is given the chance to show what he can do for Tim Vaughan over fences. You Can Of Course may be the danger with cheekpieces fitted.[Paul Johnson]

Price gapper in this handicap chase has had some chase fence experience.

755 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Fontano, 9/2 Behindcloseddoors, 15/2 Varkala, 8/1 Alwaysonthemove, 10/1 Kayfrou, 12/1 Trade On, 20/1 Bob Lewis, 33/1 There And Then, 40/1 Yorkshire Knight, 66/1 Call Me Frankie, 100/1 Alfie Brown, 200/1 Harry Masters, 200/1 Thorney Rose.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FONTANO (nap) has been found a golden opportunity. Behindcloseddoors is next best.[Paul Johnson]

Only 2 under 10/1 but this is a maiden hurdle.

800 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mudalalah, 2/1 Swing Pattern, 11/4 Stephen´s Green, 8/1 Manaaqeb, 16/1 Nordic Hawk, 33/1 Be Attitude, 33/1 Honest And True, 50/1 Yellow Rock, 66/1 Bramante, 66/1 Norah Starr, 66/1 Whos A Gem Then, 100/1 Gone Global, 100/1 Rock Of Hope, 100/1 Town Rebel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In a maiden that is unquestionably below-average, the race fitness of MUDALALAH could well prove to be significant. The market should confirm whether her main danger will be Swing Pattern or Stephens Green. [Kevin Blake]

Yes it's a big field Irish all weather maiden but there are only 4 horses under 20/1 here and Pat Smullen on Mudulalah looks to have every chance with race fitness an advantage.

315 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Caraboss, 4/1 Tarkeeba, 6/1 Imperial Pippin, 6/1 Stella Point, 10/1 Trend Line, 14/1 Creme Anglaise, 14/1 Supreme Seductress, 16/1 Sharp Relief, 20/1 Hidden Valley, 25/1 Formal Dining, 50/1 High Fallutin.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sir Michael Stoute won this 2002 and 2003 and can strike again with CARABOSS who made an encouraging debut at Salisbury last autumn and is bred to be suited by this trip. Tarkeeba and Imperial Pippin appeal most of the newcomers.[Adrian Cook]

Ryan Moore?Stoute enough to take Caraboss in this maiden despite a long absence. The market sees him as a solid favourite but early season maidens laden with newcomers are minefields. 1.29 to place.

335 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Roninski, 5/2 Wishformore, 10/1 Brent Pelham, 14/1 Fiftynotout, 33/1 Passing Moment.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RONINSKI has shown fair form on both starts and is taken to beat 60-rated Wishformore in an uncompetitive event.[Richard Young]

2 under 9/1 here and the fav remains 2/5

1.12 the fav and a massive 1.61 the 2nd fav ( value alternative?)

SHORTLIST

145 AYR - the win only looks the option for Tonic Mellyse who should be very hard to beat being so close to Zarkandar recently.

755 Chepstow - a golden opportunity for Fontano - the market certainly agrees.

800 DUndalk - Mudalalah looks relatively solid here unless there are any market moves of significance between now and then

335 WOLVES - Roninski is 2/5 and one of 2 under 10/1






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