20/4

Chelsea and Celtic look solid this evening as does Munbaher and Watered Silk - but who to choose. Which bet has the greater chance of coming in. Munbaher certainly does. Zigic and Martins are out for a Brum side who have only beaten Blackpool and West Ham away all season. Faith in Chelsea this evening in a must win as Arsenal may slip up at Spurs.

*****745pm - CHELSEA v BIRMINGHAM - Back Chelsea in the Match Odds at 1.22 *****

What a frustrating night. No attacking options meant the onus was on Man Utd to get a goal as Newcastle were unlikely to. But on another night, Giggs would have scored! It wasn't to be.

6pm - Malmo FF v Mjallby - 1.5 home - only 3 matches into the Swedish season far too early to assess. Head to heads have Mjallby clear too so mixed messages as relates to the odds.

730pm - Kilmarnock v Celtic - 1.42 away

HEAD TO HEADS

21.12.2010	PR	Celtic FC	1-1	Kilmarnock FC
19.09.2010	PR	Kilmarnock FC	1-2	Celtic FC
27.03.2010	PR	Celtic FC	3-1	Kilmarnock FC
13.03.2010	Cup	Kilmarnock FC	0-3	Celtic FC
02.02.2010	PR	Kilmarnock FC	1-0	Celtic FC
31.10.2009	PR	Celtic FC	3-0	Kilmarnock FC

Celtic, Kilmarnock, Celtic, Celtic, Celtic, Draw the head to heads. Must win now for Celtic. Last 4 matches Celtic generally dominant. Last match, Kilmarnock scored first and Celtic equalised 86^th minute.

LEAGUE POSITION – 5^th v 2^nd. – Celtic have 2 games in hand over Rangers but are 4 points adrift. They must win these 2 games to go top again.They can afford to draw one of the matches and will still lead on goal difference if they win the other match.

HOME TEAM

KILM RECENT HOME FORM – WWDLDWWD – decent form at home of late. Interestingly though, have lost all 3 home matches against top 3 in the league 2-3, 1-2 and 1-2. They have either won or drawn the rest.

KILM RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLDDWLLWWLWDD – last 3 losses all away matches.

KILM GOAL TRENDS – unders/unders/overs/overs/unders/unders/overs/overs/unders/unders recently inconsistent. 60% overs at home. Kept only 1 clean sheet in last 3 matches.Kilmarnock have only failed to score 3 times all season.

KILM STREAKS – 4 at home without defeat, Drawn last 2, lost all home matches against top 3.

AWAY TEAM

CELTIC RECENT AWAY FORM – WWDWWWLW – draw against Hamilton and loss to Motherwell both unexpected and laboured performances.Last win also laboured away – 1-0 v St Johnstone.

CELTIC RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWWWWLWWWW – again that loss was away at Motherwell.

CELTIC GOAL TRENDS – last 2 wins have been 1-0 – pressure showing?4 of last 5 matches under 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in only 2 matches all season, one was away at Motherwell.

CELTIC STREAKS – 11 matches without a draw.5 away without a draw.Celtic have conceded only 4 goals in last 9 matches ( 2 of those goals v Motherwell)

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – must win for Celtic ( although an argument can be made that they just have to draw) Have laboured a little of late with 2 1-0 wins so could not rule the 1-0 out.

730pm - Rapid Vienna v Mattersburg - 1.34 home - Austrian Cup so go with the odds or not!

745pm - Chelsea v Birmingham - 1.22 home

HEAD TO HEADS

20.11.2010	PR	Birmingham City	1-0	Chelsea FC
27.01.2010	PR	Chelsea FC	3-0	Birmingham City
26.12.2009	PR	Birmingham City	0-0	Chelsea FC
19.01.2008	PR	Birmingham City	0-1	Chelsea FC
20.11.2010	PR	Birmingham City	1-0	Chelsea FC
27.01.2010	PR	Chelsea FC	3-0	Birmingham City

At home, Chelsea have won 3-0 last 2 head to heads but struggle away ( as a lot of teams do) at Brum. Certainly Chelsea are priced to replicate today.

LEAGUE POSITION – 3^rd v 14^th – with Arsenal and Man Utd drawing, a win would be most welcome to take Chelsea 2^nd on 64 points. Amazingly a win takes Brum 9^th and guaranteed Premiership footy next season although the current 38 points should see them safe.

HOME TEAM

CHELSEA RECENT HOME FORM – DWDWLWWW – 4 wins in last 5 –recent loss was to Liverpool under new management – 3 home wins against 11^th, 12^th and 13^th and a loss to 15^th with wins against 16^th and 17^th – Brum are 14^th. Looks like the Sunderland result was an anomaly.

CHELSEA RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWLDWWWDWW – 5 wins in last 6 overall and are mopping up while others slip.

CHELSEA GOAL TRENDS – only 33% of home matches over 2.5 goals which is some surprising stat. Probably because Chelsea have kept clean sheets in 67% of home matches.Only 1 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Chelsea have scored in all of last 6 matches.Chelsea have scored 16 goals in last ¼ hour of matches.

CHELSEA STREAKS – 3 home match winning streak, 5 without a draw, 7 matches overall without defeat.

AWAY TEAM

BRUM RECENT AWAY FORM – DDLWLWDLD – inconsistent of late away.2wins away were against strugglers Blackpool and West Ham.Have played 3 of top 4 away – lost 5-0 to Man Utd, 2-1 to Arse and 0-0 draw with City. Only wins away were the ones against Blackpool and West Ham.

BRUM RECENT OVERALL FORM – WDLDWWLLDLWDW – 2 of 3 most recent losses were at home.

BRUM GOAL TRENDS – 53% over 2.5 goals away.Have conceded in 6 of last 7. Have scored in all of last 6 matches. Have scored in all of last 4 matches away.

BRUM STREAKS – 3 away matches without a win. 3 matches without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Chelsea have beaten Brum 3-0 on their last 2 visits. Chelsea’s need is greater if we think Brum are safe.Over 1.5goals?

745pm - Tottenham v Arsenal - 2.56 away

HEAD TO HEADS

20.11.2010	PR	Arsenal FC	2-3	Tottenham
21.09.2010	LC	Tottenham	1-4 AET	Arsenal FC
14.04.2010	PR	Tottenham	2-1	Arsenal FC
31.10.2009	PR	Arsenal FC	3-0	Tottenham
08.02.2009	PR	Tottenham	0-0	Arsenal FC

Spurs not lost at home recently in head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION – 5^th v 2^nd - Spurs stay 5^th on goal difference with a win. With Chelsea playing today, Arsenal need to win to lower the gap to 4 points.

HOME TEAM

SPURS RECENT HOME FORM – WWDWWDWDW – no defeat in 13 at home – 3 home draws against top 4 0-0, 1-1, 0-0. Only 1 loss at home.

SPURS RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWLDDWWWLDDDW – losses recently away to Everton and Blackpool.

SPURS GOAL TRENDS – 40% over 2.5 goals at home. 2 0-0’s in last 3 but 5 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals.

SPURS STREAKS – 13 without defeat at home, 4 overall.

AWAY TEAM

ARSENAL RECENT AWAY FORM – WWWLDWWDDW – 2 losses away were to Chelsea and Man Utd.

ARSENAL RECENT OVERALL FORM – WDWWWDWWDDDWD – no defeat in 15 matches.

ARSENAL GOAL TRENDS – 67% of away matches over 2.5 goals. Only 2 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals, but 2 of last 4 over 2.5 goals. 4,4,4,3,8,4,4 – total goals in Arsenal’s recent away matches.

ARSENAL STREAKS – 6 without defeat away from home, 15 in total.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – If the trends continue with Spurs and the top 4 , then this is a 0-0 or a 1-1, but then ,last 3 head to heads have been over 2.5 goals. Difficult match to read. Back 0-0 initially?

830pm - Barcelona v Real Madrid - 2 home - Cup match so team changes? Likely to be another tight encounter with unders the early call? But this is the Cup.

1130pm - Santos v Deportivo Tachira - 1.17 home -Copa Libertadores - Brazil v Venezuela teams and 0-0 in corresponding fixture in February. The market expects Santos dominance. Altready today a 1.17 shot won 4-0.

220 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Sizing Ireland, 9/2 Countess Susy, 10/1 Grindy, 12/1 Border Station, 16/1 Sleeping Du Granit, 20/1Prime Design, 33/1 Before The War, 33/1 San Salito, 50/1 Florence May.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With quick conditions an unknown, SIZING IRELAND might not be one to take a very short price about but serious opposition looks thin on the ground and he could probably run well below his best and still be good enough. Countess Susy is the obvious danger if reproducing her latest effort.[Stuart Redding]

Sizing horses, when favs, deserve respect. McCoy onboard in this maiden hurdle. Only 2 under 14/1 now and 3 under 25/1 with Sizing now 1/3 on and Countess Suzy at 5/1 an obvious contender for each way value.

720 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Agiaal, 5/1 Swift Blade, 11/2 Cry Fury, 9/1 Clarion Call, 10/1 Hollow Tree, 11/1 Greyfriars Drummer, 25/1 Mundesley, 25/1 Take A Spin, 33/1 May Contain Nuts.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AGIAAL shaped like a step up to middle-distances would suit when a very promising third behind an 82-rated rival on debut and has leading form claims for a yard with an impressive 50% record at this track this year. Swift Blade andCry Fury are feared most. [David Moon]

Price gapper here in this maiden has had the recent run. 8/13 - - - -- 6/1 in the live betting but some 9 hours hence.

850 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Watered Silk, 7/2 Gower Rules, 6/1 Harry Lime, 8/1 The Absent Mare, 9/1 Waterborne, 9/1Westhaven, 12/1 Neighbourhood, 16/1 Ocean´s Dream Day.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are several well-bred types here who are likely to click into gear at some point but it is hard to get away from WATERED SILK (nap) who was a big eyecatcher when second over 1m3f here on handicap debut last week and can reverse that form with front-running Gower Rules. [David Moon]

4/5 - - -5/1 price gapper in a class 6 handicap. Positively, 8 runners and 3 places and could be the start of a winning run for Watered Silk in this grade.

Negatives -class 6 0-60 are, by definition, inconsistent horses.

635 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Munbaher, 9/4 Danadana, 8/1 Taste The Victory, 16/1 Silvers Spirit, 20/1 Harvey´s Hope, 50/1Dancing Gizmo, 50/1 Khalashan, 50/1 Lure Of The Night.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was good support for Munbaher ahead of his Pontefract debut and he shaped well when chasing home an 83-rated rival. He has to go well, but DANADANA did enough in two runs over 7f last summer to think he would be winning races once his stamina was more fully tested.[Paul Smith]

Mark Johnston's Munbaher is fav here and one of only 3 horses under 20/1. Taste the victory is the obvious each way alternative.

430 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 New Latin, 11/4 Sofias Number One, 6/1 Lady Of Killough, 33/1 Back For Tea, 40/1 Fire N´brimstone.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to know what can be expected from newcomer Lady Of Killough but NEW LATIN is a decent plater and should not have much difficulty with the others, with Sofias Number One having run moderately last time.[Frank Carter]

Now 1/3 this fav but in a seller at Southwell.

SHORTLIST

730pm - Kilmarnock v Celtic - 1.42 away - Celtic had trouble with Kilmarnock at home last time out, but have won the last 2 at Kilmarnock. Kilmarnock have lost at home to top 3 which is significant as these are the only home losses.Kilmarnock have only failed to score in 3 all season and Celtic have failed to score in only 2 all season - over 1.5 goals? Celtic should win as they have the real motivation to do so and have conceded only 4 in the last 9 matches ( 2 against one team away) - 1.26 over 1.5 goals.

745pm - Chelsea v Birmingham - 1.22 home - with Arsenal likely to have a toughie today, surely Chelsea can take advantage at home against a team they have beaten 3-0 the last time they have visited Stamford Bridge.

850 KEMPTON - Watered Silk is in an 8 runner race for 3 places and makes a compelling case to place - illiquid market - 1.2 to place

635 NEWCASTLE - Munbaher is 1.11 to place and I guess as obvious as I thought!! Danadana looks interesting at a better price - 1.18 ( illiquid) and Taste the victory is the one for each way speculators.