Glor Na Mara looks solid to place,. coming back from an absence,. Ajax over 1.5 goals ,. based on past form,. should come up with ease,.
*****130pm Ajax v Heracles - back over 1,.5 goals at 1,.18
Arsenal flabbergast me -totally unwilling to win anything. 0-0 yesterday was extremely disappointing. But this is the part of the season where bottom sides can produce shock results,. I thought in my foolishness that Arsenal, without Champions League and seeing Chelsea draw, would have enough about them,. I neglected Real Madrid with Champions League coming up and we saw the first time in 8-9 years that Mourinho has lost a home match in the league. All this and meanwhile United and Barca win at great odds.
1230pm -
H Berlin v Paderborn - 1.36 home -only 1 head to head and that was a 1-0 win for PAderborn in 2010
2nd v 13th, game in hand and only one point below the league leaders so a must win for Hertha.
Paderborn look safe enough at present.
BERLIN RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWLDW - 9 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses this season at home
Have won all home matches against the bottom 5 , PAderborn are 6th from bottom.
BERLIN RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLWDWWWD - only one loss in last 10 and in solid form.
GOAL TRENDS - 8 matches on the trot with over 2.5 goals ended in last 2 matches.
Have scored in all of their last 12 matches. Average 2.23 scored and 1 conceded at home.
62% over 2.5 goals
STREAKS - 2 at home without defeat - 6 in total .
PADERBORN
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDWLWLDD - inconsistent. Have played 4 of the top 6 away from home, losing 3-0 ,. 3-1 and 1-0 twice.
Paderborn difficult to read. Last 6 matches have been overs/unders/overs/unders/overs/unders/overs.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDWWLLDLDD - could threaten a draw today or a narrow 1-0 loss? But a difficult team to read.
GOALS TRENDS - only 1 clean sheet in last 6
FAiled to score in 2 of last 3.
36% over 2.5 goals
STREAKS - 4 without a win away,. 6 in total,.
Hertha should not lose and have the requisite motivation re going top to topple the 1-0 head to head deficit.
3rd v 9th -a win takes Ajax to 58points ,. 5 behind the leaders so really a must win
6,4,4,3,4,5 the goals scored in last 6 head to heads which have seen WWDWWW for Ajax,.
AJAX RECENT HOME FORM - LDDWWWW - WINNING when it counts now,. Ajax struggling against top 10 at present at home - DWLWLD and outside top 10 at home it's all wins,.
AJAX RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLWWDWDWWL -both losses away from home.
AJAX GOAL TRENDS - Last 3 matches over 2,.5 goals - scoring 4,.3,2.
Only failed to score in 1 of their last 8 matches.
Average 2 goals at home per match,.
Only 46% over 2.5 goal at home. Last 4 home matches all wins and all clean sheets,.
Only conceded 11 in 2nd half and scored 36 so if stalemate at halftime,. Ajax should be the ones more likely to score.
AJAX STREAKS - 4 match home winning streak - no defeat in 6 at home
HERACLES - RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLDLDW - only 1 win recently proves vulnerability away from home. 10 defeats,. 3 draws and only 1 win away ( last match!!) all season,. Have lost all 5 away matches agains top 6 sides, conceding 5,.5,.2,.3,.4
GOAL TRENDS - no clean sheets at all away from home,. concede an average 2.38 goals
5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals ( in fact 3,.2,.7,.5,.5,.6, total goals in those matches) - won last 4 matches scoring 6,.4,.4,.4
No clean sheet in 6 matches and have scored in all of last 8 matches.
SEQUENCE - 4 match winning streak - 5 without defeat,.
Heracles only win away has come as part of a 4 match winning streak which has seen them score 6,,.4,4,4, but can they take that form to the top 6 away ( they tend to lose?) and against an Ajax side who really have the upper hand.
Goals therefore?
HEAD TO HEADS - 2-2 at Blackpool.
13th v 17th - we saw yesterday that this is the time of the season when the strugglers fight back ( Blackburn point at Arsenal) Fulham are on 35 points, Blackpool on 33,. A win for the latter takes them above Fulham and nearer to safety,.
A win for the former should secure survival for another season. That is how tight it is!!
This game,. then, if fraught with the unpredictability of desparation!!
FULHAM RECENT HOME FORM - DDLWWWDW - 4 of last 5 home matches have seen clean sheets for Fulham.
Only 3 losses at home against City,. Spurs and West Ham.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWLWDDDWL - 2 losses both away matches.
GOAL TRENDS - only 3 of last 9 over 2,.5 goals. COnceded and scored in last 3 matches.
STREAKS_ no defeat in 5 matches at home, winning 4 of them
BLACKPOOL -
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDWWLLLLD - free fall home and away for the Tangerines
Fulham are 13th,. Matches away to 12th and below have been LDLLDLW with total goals of 5,.4,.2,.5,.0,.4,.4,
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLDWLLD - only 1 win not enough to save possible relegation,.
GOAL TRENDS - 62% away matches over 2.5 goals - creeping up with each away match. - 11 of last 12 matches over 2.5 goals ( exception 1-1 v Villa which was a successful over 2.5 goal trade)
Concede an average 2,.06 away from home.
No clean sheet in last 13 matches,. Have only failed to score twice in last 17 matches,.
Concede a whopping 20 goals in the last quarter of an hour,.
8 of the last 10 matches have been over 3,.5 goals,.
STREAKS - no win in 5 away,. Interesting that a team renowned for tightness away relative to goals at home are starting to see regular over 2,.5 goals away matches -last 3 have seen 5,.8,.4 goals - any coincidence it comes in this part of the season?
Goals anyone? Fulham not the most exciting of teams but Blackpool's recent away trend is returning to goals,. Fulham have conceded and scored in last 3 matches,.
Kneejerk reaction is that this is a little short for an inconsistent City but the form and research might justify the price
2009 and 2010 head to heads 1-0 City home win,. 4-3 City home win,. 1-1 Sunderland home draw ,. 1-0 Sunderland home win,. Inconsistent head to heads,.
4th v 11th - 38 points for Sunderland should be safe for this season with nothing to play for and nothing to lose ( literally)
City happy to see Chelsea and Arse draw yesterday and must take advantage so it is motivated v not so motivated,.
CITY RECENT HOME FORM - DDWLWWWWDW - great recent form from City at home,.
Only 2 losses at home all season against Arse and Everton,.
CITY RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWDWLDWLDWL - a little inconsistent overall recently,.
GOAL TRENDS - Clean sheets in 60% of home matches,. hence I suppose why they are 1,.57 - if they score they should hold on,. Last 3 matches under 2 5 goals. 3 before that over 2.5 goals - which City turns up today?
Score 25,. concede 10 in the first half,. Score first in 60% of matches,.
STREAKS - 6 home matches without defeat
SUNDERLAND
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLWWLLD - recent wins against Blackpool and Villa 16th and 17th,. 1 loss ,. 3 draws and 3-0 win over Chelsea away to top 6,. - only 1 loss against top 6
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWLLLLDL - amazing they are not in the relegation scrap with 5 losses in last 6
0-0 draw with Arsenal recently perhaps shows something ( or were Arse preparing for Champions league)
GOAL TRENDS - 40% of away matches over 2,.5 goals
Like City,. last 3 unders ,. 4 before that overs - so which Sunderland turns up?
Have failed to score in last 3 matches
STREAKS - no win in 3 away,. failed to score in 2 away,. Only 1 clean sheet in last 8,.
Difficult to weigh up the inconsistencies in goal scoring from both sides. Overs/then unders in equal measure,. City must take advantage of Chelsea and Arse draws while Sunderland have not scored in last 3 against a City side with 60% clean sheets,. You would expect City to score first?
225 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Glor Na Mara, 11/2 Sing Softly, 6/1 Defining Year, 6/1 Triple Eight, 8/1 Tell The Wind, 12/1 Imperial Rome, 20/1 Deire Na Sli.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GLOR NA MARA is long overdue his first victory after competing at the highest level as a juvenile last term and Jim Bolger's colt gets a confident vote to open his account on his seasonal debut at the expense of recent course winners'Sing Softly and Defining Year. [Brian Fleming]
FAith in the price gap here for the Bolger/Manning horse
400 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 St Nicholas Abbey, 4/1 Unaccompanied, 7/1 Gift From The Sea, 8/1 Waydownsouth, 16/1 Galileo´s Choice, 25/1 Mount Helicon, 33/1 Few Are Chosen, 50/1 Cilium.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Even if he isnt cherry ripe, ST NICHOLAS ABBEY really needs to be winning this if he is to make as big an impact in Group 1s as his juvenile form suggested he would. Unaccompanied is the pick of his rivals. [Kevin Blake]
Price gapper in live betting must place at least ,. coming from the Ballydoyle stable - 337 day absence
515 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Waaheb, 2/1 Cash And Go, 8/1 Archerfield House, 12/1 Coolking, 14/1 Adajarad, 16/1 Black Zorro, 20/1 Kauto Mill Rose, 20/1 Lions Charge, 25/1 Islandmagee, 25/1 Tiebreaker, 33/1 Kalamagdan, 33/1 She Ranks Me, 33/1Vinniespride.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless the market says otherwise this bumper is likely to be dominated by the two previous winners in the field with Dermot Weld's dual Leopardstown winner WAAHEB shading the verdict over impressive Thurles debut winner Cash And Go. [Brian Fleming]
Waaheb looks siding with here as the early market indicates 2 under 14/1 should dominate,. Market better to watch nearer the off for this listed bumper
SHORTLIST
1230pm - H Berlin v Paderborn - 1.36 home - failed to score in 2 of last 3 could leave Paderborn vulnerable
130pm - Ajax v Heracles - 1,.34 home - 6,.4,.4,.3,.4,.5 goals scored in head to heads between these 2 and Heracles have scored 6,.4,.4,.4 in their last 4 matches,. Over 1,.5 goals therefore an obvious bet? 1,.18
130pm - Fulham v Blackpool - 1,.59 home - Blackpool's attacking has increased away where once they were tight - in reaction to their plight? Fulham's conservative attacking play a concern for goals backers - only 3 of last 9 over 2.5 goals BUT add the Blackpool factor?
225 CURRAGH - risky this flat to side with horses returning from layoffs,. but,. hey,. they have to come back some time and Glor Na Mara looks solid here to place in what should be a relatively good place price with 2 places
400 CURRAGH - again a returnee and St Nicholas Abbey should place in an 8 runner race for 3 places.
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